US stock futures wobbled Tuesday, struggling to build on a broad tech-led rebound fueled by growing optimism that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut next month as delayed economic data provided glimpses into consumer spending and price pressures. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) ticked 0.1% higher, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) edged down roughly 0.1%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) dropped 0.2%, after Monday’s session delivered a strong start to the ho ...

Core Viewpoint - The holiday shopping season is starting with mixed signals from retailers, indicating a divide in consumer spending behavior, particularly influenced by discounting strategies [1][2]. Retail Environment - Retailers are facing challenges in balancing discounting to attract consumers while managing their profit and loss statements amidst inflation and tariffs [3][4]. - The demand for consumer goods is expected to remain stable, with a normal level of discounting anticipated during the holiday season [4]. Key Retailers - TJX is identified as a potential "poster child" for the holiday season due to its strong value proposition and historical resilience against economic fluctuations [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased consumer spending during tax refund season and potential improvements in housing activity [7]. Home Improvement Sector - The home improvement sector has been slow to recover, but stabilizing interest rates may help unlock pent-up demand [8]. - Existing home sales have remained flat for three years, which poses a challenge but could shift to a neutral position, benefiting companies like Home Depot that are expected to outperform the industry [9]. Inventory Management - Retailers are navigating a complex environment regarding inventory management due to uncertainties around tariffs and trade dynamics, which complicate planning and forecasting [10][11]. - The need for safety stock is emphasized as retailers aim to avoid markdown liabilities while being prepared to meet demand when it arises [11][12].

Market Performance - The NASDAQ Composite had its best day since May, rising by 2.6% [1][2] - The S&P 500 increased by approximately 1.5%, while the Dow Jones gained 0.44% [2] - The Russell 2000, representing small-cap stocks, approached a 2% increase, indicating a broadly bullish market [2] Sector Performance - Technology was the leading sector, followed by consumer discretionary and utilities [2][3] - The only sectors in the red were consumer staples, down 1%, and energy, which saw a mild decline [3] Notable Stock Movements - Alphabet reached a record high, increasing by 6.3%, while Broadcom rose by 11% [3] - Tesla shares increased nearly 7%, reflecting strong market sentiment towards chip stocks and AI-related companies [4][30] AI and Technology Investments - Analysts predict significant spending on AI infrastructure, estimating between $3 to $4 trillion by the end of the decade [17] - Companies involved in AI infrastructure, such as data centers and power solutions, are expected to benefit from this trend [22] Healthcare Policy Developments - President Trump is reportedly considering a two-year extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, with proposed reforms including income caps and minimum monthly premiums [40][41] - Insurers may face challenges if minimum monthly payments are implemented, potentially leading to millions of Americans dropping off exchanges [44] Upcoming Economic Data - A rush of economic data is expected, including retail sales for September, with forecasts suggesting a slowdown to 0.4% month-over-month [53] - Earnings reports from major retailers and companies like Dell are anticipated, with analysts expecting a drop in AI server sales for Dell [54][55]

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Market Overview - Tech stocks are leading the market surge, with the NASDAQ composite and NASDAQ 100 both up approximately 2.5%, marking their best day since May [2][3] - The S&P 500 is up about 1.5%, while the Russell 2000, indicative of small caps, is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 [3] - The bond market shows a decline in the 10-year T-note yield to 4.04%, nearing yearly lows, while the 30-year yield is down to 4.68% [4] Sector Performance - The tech sector is up 2.4%, followed by consumer discretionary at 1.5%, with communication services also performing well [5] - Defensive sectors like staples are down by 1%, indicating bullish sentiment in the market [6] Notable Stock Movements - Alphabet reached a record high, increasing by 6%, while Apple is on track for another record closing high at 1.7% [6] - Tesla saw a nearly 7% increase, and Meta rebounded by 3.5% after recent declines [6] - Semiconductor stocks are performing well, with Lamb Research and AMD both up 5.5%, and Micron up 7.5% [7] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin is up 1.15% over the last 24 hours, but the entire crypto market has lost about 29% of its market cap since October [10][11] - Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant outflows, with $3.5 billion withdrawn this month [9] - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of Bitcoin's recent rally, with some predicting a fade in momentum leading up to the FOMC meeting [12][13] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is an increasing expectation for a rate cut in December, with odds rising to approximately 80% [38][40] - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate concerns about a deteriorating labor market, supporting the case for a rate cut [38][39] - The unemployment rate has increased by 0.3 percentage points over the last three months, providing economic justification for potential cuts [43][49] Retail Sector Trends - Consumer spending remains strong, with year-over-year growth reported at 5% [70] - Retailers like Walmart and TJX are thriving, while others like Target are struggling [76][107] - The holiday shopping season is expected to be busy, with a significant shift towards online shopping [86] AI and Technology Developments - Google’s Gemini 3 chatbot has gained traction, outperforming competitors like GPT-5 in various benchmarks [58][60] - The competitive landscape in AI is rapidly evolving, with companies continuously releasing new models [62] - Walmart is positioning itself as a tech-powered retailer, focusing on predictive analytics and technology implementation [90][94]

Kohl’s interim CEO Michael Bender is now officially the retailer’s CEO.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.The company announced the change Monday (Nov. 24), nearly seven months after picking Bender to ...

Regions Wealth Management's chief of investments, Alan McKnight, says the US retail sales data on Nov. 25 will be "particularly important†despite it being backward-looking. It will offer fresh insight into consumer resilience ahead of the holiday season, after mixed earnings from retailers like Walmart and Home Depot. ...

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs recommends buying the dips in the market as stocks are off their highs, with expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates [1][2] - The unemployment rate is around 4%, and the federal government is projected to run a deficit of $1.8 to $1.9 trillion over the next several years, which could support a positive outlook for the stock market [2] Consumer Spending - There is an expectation that the consumer will not "fall off a cliff," with mixed signals from various retailers; companies like Gap and TJ Maxx reported good performance, while Home Depot's earnings were less favorable [7][8] - The National Retail Federation anticipates that consumers will spend over one trillion dollars this holiday season, indicating strong consumer momentum [10] Economic Indicators - The high-income consumer is propping up the economy, while low-income consumers are still under pressure, as noted by Walmart's performance across income cohorts [11] - A weaker-than-expected labor market has contributed to current economic challenges, impacting consumer behavior [12] Technology Sector - The narrative around AI capital expenditures is crucial for market stability; if investor confidence in this area wanes, it could lead to a significant market downturn [13] - Persistent growth and demand in technology, particularly related to AI, are expected to continue despite potential economic downturns [14] Federal Reserve Influence - Future market movements are likely to be heavily influenced by Federal Reserve statements regarding interest rates, with a focus on accommodating market conditions [16]

Core Insights - The consumer discretionary sector has faced challenges in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of only 0.51%, marking it as the second-worst performing sector in the S&P 500, only behind consumer staples which is down 0.90% [3][4] - Holiday spending in the United States is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with estimates between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, representing a 3.7% increase from 2024 [4][6] - The VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ:RTH) has shown nearly 11% gain in 2025, outperforming the overall consumer discretionary sector, and provides exposure to major retail companies [5][6] Consumer Discretionary Sector Performance - The consumer discretionary sector has struggled due to tariffs, inflation, and a weak U.S. dollar, leading consumers to prioritize essential goods over discretionary spending [2][3] - The trends of underperformance are expected to continue into 2026, although the holiday season may present short-term opportunities for recovery [3][4] Holiday Spending Projections - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that holiday spending will reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, marking a significant milestone in consumer spending [4][6] - This increase in holiday spending is anticipated to provide a potential boost to the consumer discretionary sector as the year ends [6] Investment Opportunities - The VanEck Retail ETF aims to replicate the performance of the MVIS® US Listed Retail 25 Index, which includes companies involved in various retail sectors [5] - The ETF's top holdings include major companies like Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, which together account for nearly 38% of the fund's portfolio, positioning it well for potential gains during the holiday season [7]

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) is in focus today after the retailer named Michael Bender its permanent chief executive, ending months of speculation about who would lead the beleaguered department store chain. ...