Core Viewpoint - The housing market in March showed significant improvement, with an increase in the number of cities experiencing rising home prices, indicating a positive trend in the real estate sector [1][4]. Summary by Category Housing Market Activity - In March, 24 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices rise month-on-month, an increase of 6 cities from the previous month. For second-hand homes, 10 cities experienced price increases, up by 7 cities [2]. - First-tier cities have seen new home prices rise for four consecutive months, while second-hand home prices shifted from decline to increase [1][4]. Price Changes - New home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month in March, with Shanghai and Shenzhen increasing by 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. Beijing and Guangzhou saw declines of 0.2% and 0.1% [2]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities turned from a decline of 0.1% to an increase of 0.2% in March, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing increases of 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3%, respectively [2][3]. Year-on-Year Comparisons - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 2.8%, with Shanghai increasing by 5.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines [3]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the positive changes in March indicate a recovery in the housing market, with expectations for continued improvement in the second quarter [4][5]. - The upcoming quarter is traditionally a slow season for transactions, but the introduction of new quality housing projects is expected to support new home prices and improve market conditions [5].

Core Insights - The issue of housing affordability in Australia is increasingly concerning, with four of the eight capital cities having a median house price of AUD 1 million or more, and this number is expected to rise to six by the end of the year [1][3] - The rapid increase in house prices is a global phenomenon, with cities like Los Angeles, Paris, and Madrid surpassing Australia's most expensive cities [5][3] - The primary reason for the global housing crisis is insufficient supply, exacerbated by changing household patterns, such as the rise of single-person households [7][9] Group 1: Housing Market Trends - In Australia, the median house prices in Sydney (AUD 1.6 million), Melbourne (AUD 1.03 million), Canberra (AUD 1.06 million), and Brisbane (AUD 1.01 million) have reached the million-dollar mark, but they do not rank among the top five most expensive markets globally [3][5] - The global trend shows an increasing number of cities with house prices exceeding AUD 1 million, indicating a new normal for high property prices in major cities [5][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The shortage of housing supply is a significant factor contributing to the crisis, with urbanization and population growth leading to increased demand that cannot be met quickly enough [7][8] - The rise in single-person households in Australia, which now account for 26% of all households, is intensifying the demand for housing [9][10] Group 3: Global Economic Factors - The low official cash rate of 0.1% in Australia, along with similar actions by other central banks, has increased borrowing capacity, driving demand in the housing market [14][15] - As central banks begin to raise interest rates to combat inflation, housing affordability issues are reaching new heights, particularly in Australia, where the response to rate changes has been slower compared to other countries [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market has completed a small cycle since 2022, with potential changes expected by 2025 due to macroeconomic shifts. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting clearer direction. Future investment opportunities are suggested in the upstream and downstream sectors related to second-hand housing, such as real estate agencies and home improvement retail [1][3]. Market Status - The U.S. housing market has been in a "high price, low transaction" state for about two years, with no effective decline in interest rates. The expectation of rate cuts has diminished, increasing the risk of stagflation, which may further distance the market from the hoped-for recovery through lower rates. If future mortgage rates remain high, it could lead to a situation markedly different from the past 40 years of declining rates [3][4]. Asset Price Trends - If the U.S. economy weakens, there may be downward pressure on housing prices. Since 2022, there has been no real price increase, but cumulative real price growth since 2020 exceeds 25%, leading to a "housing affordability crisis." Unlike 2008, the current market has a supply shortage, and the leverage ratios of households and businesses are not excessively high, suggesting limited probability for significant price adjustments [4][5]. Certainties and Uncertainties - The primary certainty lies in the basic supply-demand dynamics, indicating a need for housing replenishment. However, uncertainties stem from policy impacts, such as immigration and tariff policies, which could affect housing costs. The potential for demand-side support policies to address affordability issues is also uncertain. The recovery in transaction volume is expected to occur eventually, but it hinges on price adjustments, with 2025 possibly providing new insights [5][19]. 2024 Market Review - The U.S. housing market in 2024 exhibited a "high price, low transaction" pattern, with new home prices slightly easing and second-hand home prices rising. New home sales totaled 690,000 units, up 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales were 3.67 million units, down 0.1%. The overall market remains sluggish due to limited effective interest rate reductions and persistent high housing prices, resulting in a slight improvement in affordability indices [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of single-family homes increased by 7% in 2024, while the confidence index among developers remained below the neutral level, indicating caution. Multi-family housing supply reached a historical peak, with strong rental demand. The overall housing inventory remains low, with a months' supply of about 4 months, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [7][16]. Future Demand and Supply Outlook - Potential pent-up housing demand is estimated between 2.15 million and 4.55 million units. First-time homebuyers are under significant pressure, with their proportion at a record low. The supply of second-hand homes is expected to gradually increase, but the pace may be slow due to the "rate lock" effect, where many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell due to low mortgage rates [14][16]. Investment Opportunities in the Housing Sector - The U.S. housing industry can be segmented into building products, distributors, home improvement retail, developers, and real estate brokers. Current valuations across these sectors are below historical averages, with developers showing the most significant deviation. Short-term profitability for developers may be pressured, but opportunities may arise from fluctuations in interest rates and the gradual recovery of the renovation market linked to second-hand home sales [24][25][27]. Risks and Challenges - Tariff policies pose a significant risk to building products and distributors, potentially increasing construction costs. The real estate brokerage sector may benefit from increased second-hand home supply, but commission uncertainties could limit income growth [28][29].

Core Insights - Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations is affiliated with Hoya Capital Real Estate, providing investment advisory services focused on publicly traded securities in the real estate industry [2] - The commentary published by Hoya Capital is intended for informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice [2] - The views expressed in the commentary are subject to change and should not be considered a complete analysis of the subjects discussed [2] Company and Industry Summary - Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations offers non-advisory services including market commentary and research, specifically targeting the real estate sector [2] - The firm emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, and any investment decisions should be made with caution [3] - Hoya Capital Real Estate does not have business relationships with any companies mentioned in their commentary, ensuring impartiality in their analysis [2]

Core Insights - Economists do not foresee a housing market crash in 2025, with predictions indicating that supply will not outpace demand for homes [2][24] - Current job data supports a stable housing market, with unemployment remaining at 4.3% as of August 2025 [3] - Home prices are experiencing slight cooling, with a reported year-over-year decrease of 1.4% in July 2025, but overall national prices are expected to decline by 0.9% by the end of 2025 [4][21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The housing supply is gradually increasing, but not at a rate that would lead to a crash; the current supply is just over nine months, compared to the 13 months seen before the 2008 crisis [5][6] - Demand remains strong, partly due to declining mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.35% in mid-September 2025 [7] - The current market dynamics differ significantly from those leading to the 2007 crash, with limited supply, high home equity, and stringent mortgage lending guidelines in place [9][10] Economic Factors - Home equity is at record highs, with the average American holding over $300,000 in equity, which contrasts sharply with the low equity levels seen in 2007 [10][12] - Low mortgage delinquency rates and a strong job market contribute to a stable housing environment, reducing the likelihood of a crash [12] Market Observations - While a national housing crash is unlikely, local markets may experience price fluctuations, with some areas potentially seeing declines even as national trends remain stable [15] - Increased non-mortgage related costs, such as property insurance and taxes, could impact some households, but the overall housing shortage is expected to mitigate widespread crashes [14] Future Considerations - Economists suggest monitoring local market conditions, including population growth, job market trends, and home sales, to gauge potential risks [15] - A significant economic shock or a rapid rise in unemployment could signal a future housing market crash, but current forecasts do not indicate such risks [13][14]

Editor’s note: We are monitoring government moves regarding the first-time home buyer tax credit and will update this page as necessary. President Trump wants to fix the housing market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said that the administration may declare "a national housing emergency" soon. What would that look like? And will the first-time home buyer tax credit return? Read more: How much house can I afford? Will the first-time home buyer tax credit return? Little has been officially relea ...