丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 关注高景气能源 IT 赛道投资机遇 2025 年第 23 周计算机行业周报 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上周计算机板块整体持续反弹，大幅上涨 3.18%。在长江一级行业中排名第 4 位，两市成交额 占比为 10.00%，稳定币及并购重组概念表现活跃。上周数字货币巨头 Circle 在美国纽约证券 交易所（NYSE）上市；我国将在北京、浙江、安徽等地部署建设 10 个国家数据要素综合试验 区。本周推荐关注能源 IT 领域具备先发优势的厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [关注高景气能源 Table_Title2] IT 赛道投资机遇 2025 年第 23 周计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary2] 上周复盘：计算机板块持续反弹 上周受端午假期影响，仅有四个交易日，上证综指持续上涨，周五报收 3385.3 ...

股价表现方面，自4月中旬触及十个月低点后，甲骨文股价持续走强，近一月累计上涨约12%。其12个 月平均股价为157.40美元。尽管2024年表现亮眼，且五年间市值近乎翻三倍，但从投资视角来看，鉴于 公司在云服务与AI领域的强劲发展势头，当前估值仍具吸引力。 甲骨文首席执行官Safra Ada Catz在第三季度财报电话会议上表示："我们对未来营收增长路径已形成清 晰预期。2025财年云基础设施收入增速必将超过上年50%的增幅，2026财年增速还将进一步加快。实现 660亿美元营收目标(约合15%增长率)的信心较以往更甚。更重要的是，预计2027财年增长率将达20%， 这较先前指引更为乐观。" 甲骨文(ORCL.US)将于美东时间6月11日美股盘后公布第四季度财报。市场普遍预期，这家科技巨头经 调整后每股收益将从上年同期的1.63美元微升至1.64美元，季度营收预计同比增长9%至155.8亿美元。 值得注意的是，上季度其营收与盈利双双不及预期，已连续两个季度表现低迷。 第三季度数据显示，剔除特殊项目后调整后每股收益为1.47美元(上年同期为1.41美元)。当季净利润达 29.4亿美元(合每股1.02美元)，较上 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Volcano Engine Original Power Conference will be held on June 11-12, focusing on cutting-edge areas such as large models and AI cloud-native technologies [1] - ByteDance's AI advancements include the launch of the Doubao voice podcast model, enabling rapid conversion from text to dialogue podcasts without complex editing [1] - The Volcano Engine introduced the MCPServers large model ecosystem square and the DiskANNRaBitQ vector algorithm engine, which improves query performance by 115% and reduces memory consumption by 90% [1] - The launch of DBCopilot, the first intelligent database assistant in China, covers three core scenarios: data storage, management, and retrieval [1] - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that ByteDance has become a leading force in China's AI development, contributing significantly to the AI ecosystem [1] Group 2 - Hand Information and Volcano Engine are collaborating to enhance the implementation of private domain operation systems for enterprises [2] - Runxin Technology is customizing wireless smart appliance chips and AI glasses SOC chips for key clients, leveraging cloud platforms from Google, ByteDance, and Alibaba [2] - Smart terminal devices are being designed to directly participate in model training and inference, enhancing their capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is experiencing significant challenges, including a 20% decline in stock price this year, the worst performance since at least 2010, with limited catalysts for recovery in the near term due to the absence of a major iPhone upgrade cycle [1][8]. Group 1: AI and Product Development - At the upcoming WWDC, Apple's lag in artificial intelligence (AI) compared to competitors like Microsoft and Google is expected to be a major topic, highlighting the slow progress in AI and the overdue upgrade of Siri [3][6]. - Analysts note that Apple is likely to be more cautious in its presentations, avoiding overpromising on features that are not yet ready [4]. - The company is not currently monetizing its generative AI features, which could limit short-term growth as it seeks to boost hardware sales, particularly for iPhones, which have seen flat revenue for two years [6][7]. Group 2: External Pressures - Apple faces additional pressures, including tariffs that threaten hardware profit margins and scrutiny over its services division, particularly regarding App Store fees and payments from Google for being its default search engine [5][6]. - The competition is intensifying from unexpected sources, such as OpenAI's collaboration with former Apple designer Jony Ive to create new AI devices that could disrupt the smartphone market [7][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that for Apple's stock to perform well, a catalyst such as an iPhone replacement cycle is necessary, which is not anticipated in the next 12 months [6][7]. - Despite having a loyal user base of 2.35 billion active devices, Apple’s dominance is challenged by external risks, including tariffs and legal battles, alongside its internal struggles with AI development [8].

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference highlighted the current state of AI model security in China, indicating that it is mostly at a mid-level with an attack success rate of approximately 5%-6%, suggesting room for improvement [1][3]. Group 1: AI Security Challenges - Experts noted that AI is amplifying security threats, making them more scalable and targeted, which exacerbates the asymmetry in cyber defense [3]. - There is a significant gap between China's AI security algorithms and international standards, particularly in originality, model openness, and dataset quality [3]. - A new security assessment platform for AI models revealed that advancements in AI capabilities have not corresponded with improvements in security risk prevention [3]. Group 2: Importance of Systematic Defense - Experts emphasized the need for a comprehensive network security system, moving away from isolated defense strategies to a unified defense framework [4]. - The successful zero-incident network protection during the 2022 Winter Olympics was cited as an example of the effectiveness of a joint defense system [4]. - Recommendations for establishing a joint defense system include ensuring operators fulfill their security responsibilities and transforming individual service purchases into a public service under a unified defense framework [4]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Governance - The importance of collaborative principles in industry chain integration was stressed, advocating for deeper integration of technology and international standards [5]. - A shift from individual product selection to a systematic approach in security construction was proposed, addressing the fragmentation in security procurement among large enterprises [6]. - Suggestions for enhancing security operations include leveraging AI for threat intelligence and establishing efficient feedback loops for security operations [6].

Core Insights - The report outlines a comprehensive framework for enterprise solution design, focusing on efficiency enhancement, youth-oriented strategies, and data-driven decision-making to create sustainable business growth models [1][13]. Group 1: Efficiency Revolution - The core demand of enterprise solution architecture is shifting from functional implementation to efficiency optimization [2]. - Cost control in manufacturing is achieved through a tiered cost reporting system, enabling visibility of expenses and driving resource utilization [3]. Group 2: Youth-Oriented Strategy - Solutions targeting Generation Z and young professionals require a balance between "official authority" and "youthful fun" [4]. - Brand persona upgrades, such as vivo's gaming platform, emphasize high-quality service while enhancing community engagement through interactive games and trendy events [4]. - Content platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin are pivotal in reaching young users, with initiatives like the "Flying Disc Practical Handbook" and the "DOU Fishing" campaign achieving significant exposure [5]. Group 3: Data Intelligence - Data middle platforms are becoming the "nerve center" of enterprise solutions, facilitating a transition from experience-based to data-driven decision-making [7]. - A dual middle platform architecture supports omnichannel operations, with a retail company improving inventory turnover efficiency by 40% after integrating online and offline data [7]. - User engagement is enhanced through a refined operational model based on the Fogg Behavior Model, leading to a 25% increase in conversion rates [8]. Group 4: Industry Integration - Solution architectures in vertical industries are breaking traditional boundaries, showcasing cross-industry integration [10]. - Smart city initiatives utilize a three-layer architecture to integrate data for dynamic municipal resource management [10]. - New retail transformations are facilitated by SaaS providers offering integrated solutions for omnichannel sales and supply chain collaboration [12]. Conclusion - The essence of solution architecture lies in understanding human needs, with a focus on efficiency tools, data algorithms, and youthful expressions to amplify user value [13].

Core Insights - The 2025 Smart Economy Forum was held in Beijing, focusing on the theme of developing the smart economy and accelerating the construction of a digital China, in line with the national "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan [1] - Baidu's intelligent cloud has seen 65% of central enterprises choose to collaborate deeply with it to explore AI innovation [1][3] - Baidu Intelligent Cloud launched the Qianfan Huijin financial model and introduced a family of intelligent agents covering various sectors such as energy, transportation, automotive, healthcare, and environment [1] Group 1 - Central enterprises are becoming a key force in driving the integration of digital and real economies, with a focus on large model applications [2] - Baidu Intelligent Cloud's Qianfan model platform offers "scene intelligent agent" solutions across multiple industries, promoting the large-scale application of AI in business [2] - The intelligent power supply solution developed in collaboration with State Grid has automated the entire process from user service acceptance to power supply plan generation, significantly improving efficiency [2] Group 2 - Baidu's Qianfan Huijin financial model is designed to support the development of financial technology in China, utilizing a vast amount of financial data to enhance its capabilities [4] - The model offers two versions, 8B and 70B parameters, and supports a maximum context input of 32K, covering most scenarios in the financial industry [4] - The model has outperformed general-purpose models in various tasks, demonstrating its potential to enhance service levels and risk management capabilities in financial institutions [4] Group 3 - Baidu emphasizes the importance of domestic chips for developing effective AI applications and has increased investment in domestic chip and self-developed platform infrastructure [6] - The Kunlun chip P800 has achieved large-scale commercial use, and Baidu has successfully activated the third-generation Kunlun chip clusters in collaboration with major enterprises [6] - Baidu's Baijie platform efficiently schedules and is compatible with various domestic chips, achieving over 95% utilization in training time for large clusters, supporting model development in key national industries [6]

Core Points - Banqup Group SA has completed the sale of all shares in the 21grams group to PostNord Strålfors AB, marking a significant strategic transformation for the company [1][2][3] - The transaction was finalized with a preliminary cash consideration of SEK 158.7 million, based on an enterprise value of SEK 200 million, with customary post-closing adjustments pending [3][4] - The proceeds from the sale will be utilized to strengthen Banqup's balance sheet and reduce net financial debt [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, 21grams generated total revenue of €79.4 million with a gross margin of 17.4% and a positive EBITDA of €1.9 million [4] - As of December 31, 2024, 21grams employed 76 full-time equivalents across Sweden, Norway, and Denmark [4] Strategic Partnerships - Banqup Group and PostNord Strålfors have signed a strategic partnership agreement to accelerate the rollout of the Banqup platform in the Nordic region [5] - PostNord Strålfors will act as the exclusive distributor of Banqup in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland for at least five years, utilizing Banqup's e-invoicing infrastructure [5][6] - This partnership aims to create an interconnected solution, enhancing service coverage and efficiency for clients across and beyond the Nordic region [5] Leadership Comments - The CEO of Banqup Group emphasized that the divestment of 21grams aligns with the company's focus on becoming a pure-play SaaS provider and growing core digital services [6] - The CEO of PostNord Strålfors highlighted the acquisition of 21grams as a means to enhance their offerings in the customer communication market [6]

Group 1: Overview of Microsoft and the Magnificent Seven - The "Magnificent Seven" are dominant tech players that have leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) effectively, but their performance has diverged due to tariffs impacting supply chains and product types [1] - Microsoft has emerged as one of the strongest performers within this group, benefiting from diversified revenue streams across various tech businesses [2][11] Group 2: Performance and Growth Drivers - Microsoft's cloud services, particularly Azure, have been a significant driver of its strong performance, with Azure revenue growing 35% year over year in the third fiscal quarter of 2025 [5][12] - Azure serves as the foundation for Microsoft's AI offerings, providing AI models through a partnership with OpenAI and integrating AI tools into applications like Microsoft 365 Copilot [6][7] Group 3: Financial Outlook and Analyst Insights - Microsoft has faced scrutiny over its capital expenditures on AI, but recent earnings indicate that AI-related revenue is increasingly intertwined with non-AI revenue [9] - Evercore analyst Kirk Materne raised Microsoft's price target from $500 to $515, citing the potential for AI revenue to reach upwards of $110 billion by fiscal year 2028, alongside significant growth in cloud adoption [10] Group 4: Resilience and Stability - Microsoft is considered the least impacted by tariffs among the Magnificent Seven, with minimal exposure to retail, advertising spending, and physical supply chains, enhancing its resilience during trade tensions [11] - The company holds the highest possible credit ratings from Moody's and S&P Global, positioning it as a stable investment throughout economic cycles [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential of AI in driving new opportunities for the company, which is a leading provider of consulting, industry solutions, and digital technology services [2][4] - The company has a strong track record of serving numerous Fortune 500 and China 500 companies across various sectors including finance, high-tech, internet, energy, manufacturing, and agriculture [4][5] - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 252 million, 319 million, and 372 million CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31.4, 24.8, and 21.2 times, indicating that the company's valuation is below the average of comparable companies [2][4] Company Overview - The company is focused on consolidating its traditional IT service advantages while deepening product development and solution innovation [4] - It is actively cultivating high-value-added business segments and steadily forming specialized new business teams, with a focus on enhancing consulting service capabilities and the integration of trusted software and hardware [4] - The company has a long-standing partnership with Alibaba, exploring the application of large models in the financial sector, and has been involved in upgrading core systems for financial institutions [4][5] Strategic Collaborations - The company has been a deep collaborator with Microsoft for 30 years, providing IT services and developing intelligent application solutions based on cloud and AI platforms [5] - It is one of the first companies to access Microsoft Azure OpenAI commercial service permissions, focusing on delivering automation and intelligent robotics solutions [5]