Group 1 - InterGlobe Aviation will be added to the BSE Sensex index, replacing Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, effective from December 22 [4][3] - The inclusion of InterGlobe Aviation indicates its growing market presence and reflects a significant shift in sector representation within the benchmark, moving from automobiles to aviation [4][3] - The reshuffle will also involve changes in other indices, with IDFC First Bank replacing Adani Green Energy in the BSE 100 index and Max Healthcare Institute replacing IndusInd Bank in the BSE Sensex 50 [4][3] Group 2 - Index changes typically lead to portfolio realignment among index-tracking funds and exchange-traded funds, resulting in mechanical buying and selling as funds adjust their holdings [3][4] - The announcement of these changes highlights the evolving dynamics within India's equity markets and the shifts in category leadership over time [4]

Summary of Japan Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market, specifically the TOPIX index, with a target of 3,600 points by December 2026, indicating a potential increase of nearly 10% from current levels [2][9][15]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Inflation**: Japan is transitioning from a low-inflation environment to one where inflation is expected to approach 2%, leading to growth, wage increases, and improved pricing flexibility [4][12]. 2. **Corporate Governance Reforms**: Reforms by the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Financial Services Agency are enhancing corporate governance, prompting companies to rethink balance-sheet management [4][13]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights sectors poised for growth, including Construction & Materials, Machinery, Electrical Equipment & Precision Instruments, IT Services, and Banks, while expressing caution towards Food, Pharmaceuticals, and Transportation sectors [9][40][46]. 4. **External Risks**: Significant uncertainty from external shocks is acknowledged, with a wide dispersion between bullish and bearish equity outlooks. Key risks include a potential US economic slowdown and sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen [5][9][35]. 5. **Fiscal Policy**: The Takaichi administration is expected to emphasize economic security and strategic investments in technologies essential for national security, such as AI and semiconductors [5][39]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Earnings Projections**: EPS growth for TOPIX constituents is projected at +16% for 2026, with a further +9% increase in 2027, indicating robust corporate earnings momentum [19]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: The report outlines a forward P/E ratio of 15.0x for the base case, with a potential range from 12.2x in a bear case to 17.0x in a bull case, reflecting a significant range of market expectations [14][19]. 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Cyclical Sectors**: The report recommends focusing on cyclical sectors that can withstand US economic uncertainties, particularly those backed by government investment [39][40]. - **Underperforming Sectors**: Structural headwinds in Food, Pharmaceuticals, and Transportation sectors are highlighted, with expectations of underperformance during economic expansions [46]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for Japanese equities remains positive, with a strong emphasis on building resilient portfolios to navigate potential external shocks. The anticipated fiscal policies and corporate governance reforms are expected to drive long-term growth and profitability in the Japanese market [5][15][19].

Summary of the Conference Call on Mortgage Relief in China Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese housing market** and the potential for **mortgage relief** measures to stabilize housing prices and listings [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Housing Market Conditions**: - Housing prices in China have seen a significant decline, leading to a feedback loop of "higher listings/lower prices" which exacerbates deflationary pressures [3][10]. - A deeper downturn in the housing market poses risks to the forecast of shallower deflation in 2026 and lowflation in 2027 [3][10]. 2. **Proposed Policy Measures**: - The Chinese government is considering **interest subsidies** to reduce mortgage costs without negatively impacting banks' net interest margins (NIM) [4][10]. - This approach is seen as a targeted rate cut that avoids the limitations of conventional rate cuts [4][10]. 3. **Cost Implications**: - A broad-based 100 basis points (bps) subsidy could cost approximately **Rmb 400 billion** annually, while a targeted subsidy for new mortgages would cost around **Rmb 100 billion** per year [6][10]. 4. **Policy Design Considerations**: - The effectiveness of the subsidy program will depend on its **scope** (whether it covers new or existing mortgages), **magnitude** (the size of the subsidy), and **duration** [5][10][11]. - A sufficiently broad and generous program could support new home sales and alleviate pressures in the secondary market, helping to stabilize prices [10][12]. 5. **Potential Impact**: - If implemented broadly (covering all mortgages) and generously (100 bps for five years), the program could significantly boost new home sales and ease supply pressures in the secondary market, thereby reducing price headwinds [12][10]. - This would align with the expectation of narrower deflation in 2026 and a clearer exit from deflation in 2027, particularly as housing prices stabilize in higher-tier cities [12][10]. 6. **Risks to Monitor**: - A narrow scope of the subsidy (only covering new mortgages) may lead to limited improvements in new home sales, failing to offset secondary market listings and providing minimal support to prices [13][10]. - Delays in execution and entrenched expectations of falling prices could undermine the effectiveness of the policy [13][10]. Other Important Considerations - The program's design and implementation details remain unclear, making immediate action unlikely [10][11]. - The policy direction is consistent with the forecast for "less deflation" in 2026 and a transition towards lowflation in 2027 [10][12].

23 November 2025 | 5:21PM EST Economics Research Global Views: Looking Beyond December 1. Though badly delayed, the September jobs report may have sealed a 25bp cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. On Friday, New York Fed President (and FOMC Vice Chair) Williams argued for "a further adjustment in the near term" because "the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat." His view is likely consistent with that of Cha ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Macro Strategy Outlook** for 2026, particularly regarding interest rates and currency trends across G10 economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Trends**: - Lower G10 rates and a weaker US dollar are expected to persist into the first half of 2026, with a reversal anticipated around the US midterm elections in November 2026 [1][4][6] - US Treasury yields are forecasted to end 2026 at **4.05%**, after reaching **3.75%** by June [3][6] - The yield curve is expected to steepen further, particularly in the euro area where the ECB is projected to cut rates to **1.50%** [3][6][18] 2. **Currency Outlook**: - The DXY is expected to decline by **5%** to **94** in the first half of 2026 before rebounding in the second half [6][41] - Risk currencies like AUD and SEK are anticipated to lead gains, while USD/JPY is projected to fall to **140** due to declining US rates [6][41][47] 3. **Inflation-Linked Bonds**: - TIPS breakevens in the US are expected to tighten into mid-2026, with a widening anticipated by the end of the year as economic conditions improve [8] 4. **Sovereign Supply Outlook**: - Net coupon bond supply across the G7 is expected to decrease by **14%** year-over-year, amounting to **$2.45 trillion** in 2026 [26][34] - The decrease in net issuance is anticipated across the US, euro area, Japan, and New Zealand [34] 5. **Regional Specifics**: - **United States**: The Fed is expected to cut rates to **3.125%** in 1Q26, with 10-year Treasury yields projected to reach **3.75%** in 1H26 [52][76] - **Euro Area**: The ECB's depo rate is expected to fall to **1.50%**, with 10-year Bund yields projected to decline to **2.30%** by 2Q26 [58] - **United Kingdom**: The Bank Rate is expected to reach **2.75%** in 2026, with 10-year gilt yields around **3.9%** [64] - **Japan**: JGB yields are expected to rise to **1.65%** for 10-year bonds by 4Q26 [71] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: - The interplay between US and global rates will shape both rates and FX performance in 2026, with a focus on duration and curve trades over credit beta [25][40] - The anticipated fiscal policy changes could significantly impact investor expectations regarding sovereign supply [39] 2. **Investment Strategies**: - Preferred trades include long 5-year Treasuries and yield curve steepeners via options [57] - In the euro area, long positions in EU vs Germany in the 5-year sector are recommended as a carry play [62] 3. **Risk Factors**: - A potential mild US recession could lead to a significant drop in the funds rate, impacting Treasury yields [16][80] - The risk of a global risk-off episode could widen spreads beyond current expectations [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends in interest rates, currency movements, and investment strategies for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market creates a dedicated financing channel for innovative enterprises, addressing long-standing challenges such as lack of suitable financing tools, lengthy approval processes, and high comprehensive financing costs [1] Group 1: Financing Mechanism - The new mechanism allows for precise allocation of financial resources, ensuring that funds flow directly into key areas of technological innovation guided by national strategy, thereby enhancing the efficiency and quality of financial support for the real economy [1] - The evolution of technology finance in China has progressed from traditional bank credit to the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and now to the introduction of the "Technology Board" in the bond market, reflecting a more comprehensive and multi-faceted support policy [1] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - Current challenges in the technology finance system include limited overall funding scale and insufficient risk tolerance [1] - It is recommended to deepen reforms and innovations to build a complementary and collaborative technology finance ecosystem, involving banks and insurance companies to inject capital into national-level mother funds [1] - The mother fund should act as a "strategic reservoir" and "patient capital," supporting market-oriented and professional venture capital (VC) institutions to allocate funds to the most innovative technology enterprises [1]

Group 1: Anglo American and BHP Takeover Proposal - Anglo American has rejected a new takeover proposal from BHP Group, stating that the offer does not surpass the value of its existing strategic partnership with Teck Resources [2] - This rejection continues Anglo American's resistance to BHP's advances, following previous rejections of offers valued at £31 billion ($39 billion) and £34 billion in April and May 2024 [3] - A key issue in earlier bids was BHP's proposed structure, which required Anglo American to demerge its stakes in Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore, deemed "highly unattractive" by Anglo American's board [4] - Shareholders from Anglo American and Teck are expected to vote soon on a deal to establish a new copper entity reportedly worth more than $60 billion, positioning it as a major player in the global copper market [4][8] Group 2: Commonwealth Bank Executive Change - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced the departure of its Group Chief Information Officer, Gavin Munroe, who has been in the role since November 14, 2022 [5][6] - Munroe was responsible for leading strategic initiatives to strengthen the bank's IT systems and drive digital transformation during his tenure [6] - The bank has not yet announced a successor or the effective date of Munroe's departure [6]

Core Insights - New research indicates that even high-income households, specifically those earning $200,000 or more, experience significant financial anxiety, leading them to avoid checking their banking apps due to stress [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Anxiety Among High Earners - 40% of six-figure earners avoid checking their account balances to reduce stress, with this figure rising to 42% for those earning $200,000 or more [2][4]. - Nearly half of high-income earners report struggling with financial anxiety, feeling guilty about their financial complaints due to their higher income compared to most [2][4]. Group 2: Perception of Wealth - A significant 64% of six-figure earners view their income as "survival mode" rather than a sign of wealth, and 52% believe the American Dream is unattainable at their income level [5]. - About one in three high-income individuals describe themselves as financially distressed, indicating feelings of being stretched or struggling with finances [5]. Group 3: Spending Challenges - High-income earners are primarily spending on essential categories such as groceries (36%), rent or mortgage (32%), and health insurance or medical costs (31%), rather than luxury items [6]. - More than half of six-figure earners categorize regular expenses like vacations, new cars, and dining out as financial "pressure zones," indicating a shift in what is considered middle-class life [7].

Group 1 - Bitcoin price has shown a concerning pattern, with US trading sessions driving losses while Asian markets buy the dip, indicating a regional divergence [1][2] - Speculation suggests that the US government may be interested in MicroStrategy and Coinbase, potentially capitalizing on Bitcoin's recent sell-off [2][3] - There are claims that the US government orchestrated the Bitcoin sell-off to bring prices below $90,000, although no evidence supports these claims [3][6] Group 2 - A popular user on social media suggested that the US is considering a multi-billion-dollar investment in MicroStrategy, requiring the market net asset value (mNAV) to be 1 before proceeding [5] - The potential exclusion of companies with over 50% of their assets in Bitcoin from MSCI indices could lead to significant passive fund outflows, estimated at $8.8 billion for MicroStrategy [7]

The BSE benchmark rose 669.14 points, or 0.79 per cent, during the week.Reliance, Airtel top weekly gainsThe market valuation of Reliance Industries increased by Rs 36,673 crore to Rs 20,92,052.61 crore, while Bharti Airtel’s mcap jumped Rs 36,579.01 crore to Rs 12,33,279.85 crore.Tata Consultancy Services added Rs 16,299.49 crore to reach Rs 11,39,715.66 crore, while Infosys gained Rs 17,490.03 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 6,41,688.83 crore.HDFC Bank’s mcap rose by Rs 14,608.22 crore to Rs 15,35,132.5 ...