The wife of Rep. Mike Kelly (R., Pa.) bought 5,000 shares of Cleveland-Cliffs a day after a key tariff decision, fueling concerns from House Ethics Committee investigators https://t.co/MtFcJWiSzR ...

Core Insights - Grupo Simec reported a significant decline in net income, dropping 94% from Ps. 5,435 million in the first half of 2024 to Ps. 304 million in the first half of 2025, primarily due to decreased sales and shipments of finished steel products [13][40]. Sales Performance - Net sales decreased by 9% from Ps. 16,279 million in the first half of 2024 to Ps. 14,835 million in the first half of 2025, driven by an 11% reduction in shipments of finished steel products [2][40]. - Total sales outside of Mexico fell by 10% to Ps. 6,573 million, while domestic sales decreased by 8% to Ps. 8,262 million [2][40]. - In the second quarter of 2025, net sales decreased by 9% compared to the first quarter, from Ps. 7,783 million to Ps. 7,052 million [14][40]. Cost and Profitability - Cost of sales decreased by 9% from Ps. 12,232 million in the first half of 2024 to Ps. 11,167 million in the first half of 2025, maintaining a consistent percentage of 75% of net sales for both periods [3][40]. - Gross profit fell from Ps. 4,047 million in the first half of 2024 to Ps. 3,668 million in the first half of 2025, representing a gross profit margin of 25% for both periods [4][40]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased by 11% from Ps. 1,176 million to Ps. 1,307 million, rising from 7% to 9% of net sales [5][40]. Operating and EBITDA Performance - Operating profit decreased by 10% from Ps. 2,916 million in the first half of 2024 to Ps. 2,624 million in the first half of 2025, with an operating margin of 18% for both periods [7][40]. - EBITDA declined by 7% from Ps. 3,413 million in the first half of 2024 to Ps. 3,165 million in the first half of 2025 [8][40]. Financial Costs and Income - Comprehensive financial costs shifted from a net income of Ps. 2,809 million in the first half of 2024 to an expense of Ps. 1,845 million in the first half of 2025, primarily due to an exchange loss of Ps. 2,332 million [11][40]. - The company recorded a net tax expense of Ps. 476 million in the first half of 2025, compared to Ps. 291 million in the same period of 2024 [12][40]. Quarterly Comparison - In the second quarter of 2025, net income turned into a loss of Ps. 1,000 million, compared to a profit of Ps. 3,979 million in the second quarter of 2024 [39][40]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a 16% decrease in net sales compared to the same quarter in 2024, dropping from Ps. 8,394 million to Ps. 7,052 million [28][40].

Some of Brazil’s pig iron producers are looking at halting operations as tariff tensions shrink demand from customers in the US, the top buyers of cargoes from the South American nation https://t.co/7lvt8NMs96 ...

Group 1 - The term "anti-involution" has gained significant attention in the securities industry, with nearly 500 related research reports published since July, averaging about 20 reports per day across various sectors including metals, power equipment, coal, and e-commerce [2][4] - The government has recognized the issue of "involution" in its 2025 agenda, emphasizing the need to address low-price and disorderly competition, which has distorted market mechanisms and disrupted fair competition [3][4] - The recent surge in "anti-involution" research and roadshows indicates a potential shift in market trends, with sectors like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and steel expected to see increased policy support [2][5] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" theme has led to a proliferation of roadshows, with over 99 events recorded on the Wind platform, indicating strong interest from various securities firms [5] - Analysts suggest that the current wave of "anti-involution" is a response to policy catalysts and reflects a strategic move by securities firms to capture market opportunities amid increasing competition in research [7] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to lead to structural adjustments in supply-side strategies, with a focus on high-quality development and addressing issues in industries heavily impacted by "involution" [8][9] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry is identified as a leader in the "anti-involution" movement, with strategies focusing on price increases and production limits to combat excessive low-price competition [10] - The steel industry is also undergoing a supply-side structural reform, with plans for differentiated production control based on efficiency and environmental standards, as well as promoting industry consolidation [10] - International experiences from the U.S., Japan, and Germany are being analyzed for potential strategies to combat "involution," emphasizing the importance of industry mergers and market-driven solutions [11][12]

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/07/25 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/07/18 | 3210 | 3270 | 3320 | 3260 | 3380 | 3320 | | 2025/07/21 | 3270 | 3330 | 3380 | 3310 | 3460 | 3370 | | 2025/07/22 | 3330 | 3380 | 3440 | 3350 | 3500 | 3420 | | 2025/07/23 | 3330 | 3390 | 3440 | 3350 | 3500 | 3450 | | 2025/07/24 | 3350 | 3390 | 3440 | 3350 | 3500 | 3400 | | 变化 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -50 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the launch of a significant hydropower project in China, valued at RMB 1.2 trillion (approximately USD 167 billion), located on the Yarlung Tsangpo River. This project is part of China's strategy to stimulate infrastructure development in response to weak demand, particularly in the property sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Project Scale and Impact**: The hydropower project is expected to be 5-6 times the size of the Three Gorges Dam, contributing approximately 5% to China's 2024 infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI). It will consist of five cascade hydropower plants with a projected power generation capacity of 60-70 GW annually, making it the world's largest hydro dam upon completion in 15-20 years [2]. - **Cement Demand**: The project is estimated to require 30-50 million tons of cement, 150-250 million tons of sand and aggregate, and 90-150 million cubic meters of concrete. This demand represents about 1.7% of China's total annual cement production. In Tibet, the average annual cement demand from this project could account for 25%-35% of local production, significantly tightening regional demand and potentially increasing cement prices from RMB 500-600 per ton to RMB 700 per ton [4]. - **Steel Consumption**: The project is projected to consume around 4 million tons of steel, which is about 0.4% of China's annual crude steel production. The specific location in Tibet will likely increase the demand for high-quality steel products, benefiting companies like Baosteel [4]. - **Power Generation Equipment**: Key players in the hydropower equipment sector, such as Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, are expected to benefit from the project. The project aims to add 60-70 GW to China's existing hydropower capacity of 436 GW by the end of 2024, enhancing long-term earnings prospects for the power generation equipment sector [4]. - **Construction Machinery Investment**: The machinery investment for the project could reach RMB 72-96 billion, which is significant compared to the revenues of the top five domestic construction machinery companies projected at RMB 130 billion in 2024. This investment is expected to alleviate concerns regarding construction machinery demand and positively impact companies like Sany, XCMG, and Zoomlion [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Conch, CNBM, and XCMG, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated increase in construction activity and material demand due to the hydropower project [1][4]. - **Regional Economic Impact**: The project is expected to have a substantial positive impact on regional economies, particularly in Tibet, by increasing demand for construction materials and machinery, thereby stimulating local economic growth [4]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The hydropower project is seen as a critical component of China's broader strategy to enhance its infrastructure and energy capacity, which is expected to drive growth in related sectors over the next decade [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. is facing significant challenges due to the ongoing 50% Section 232 tariff on Canadian steel, which is impacting its operations and outlook, while the company is actively seeking solutions to enhance liquidity and maintain competitiveness in the market [2][3][5]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, and it is the only independent and publicly owned steelmaker in Canada [2][8]. - The company is nearing completion of a C$900 million investment in electric arc furnace steelmaking, aimed at reducing its carbon footprint and improving cash flow generation [2][9]. Trade and Tariff Impact - The current trade impasse and tariff environment are causing a structural imbalance in the Canadian steel market, prompting Algoma to consider various alternatives to bolster liquidity [3][4]. - Algoma is exploring targeted liquidity tools, including an application for $500 million under the federal Large Enterprise Tariff Loan (LETL) program, to support its operations and strategic diversification [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology to lower carbon emissions and enhance its position as a leading producer of green steel in North America [9][10]. - Algoma emphasizes the importance of a strong Canadian steel industry for the country's economic strength, environmental goals, and national security [5].

Summary of J.P. Morgan's China Metals Activity Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry in China, specifically tracking inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, and zinc as of the week ended July 18, 2025 [1][11]. Key Insights 1. **Copper Inventory Trends** - China typically experiences significant destocking of copper inventories from now until September. However, recent data shows a slowing pace of inventory drawdowns, with copper inventories increasing by 3,000 tons last week [1][12]. - The five-year average indicates a normal destocking of approximately 200,000 tons of copper during this period [1][12]. 2. **Steel Mill Margins** - There has been a notable improvement in China steel mill margins over the last three weeks, leading to a ~10% increase in iron ore prices to $102 per ton. Average hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel mill margins have returned to profitability for the first time since early 2023 [2][9]. - Rebar margins are close to breakeven, marking the strongest profitability since early 2023 [2][9]. 3. **Iron Ore Shipments and Production** - Iron ore shipments to China from Australia and Brazil have shown mixed results, with Australian shipments down by 4.3% week-over-week but up 8.2% year-over-year. Brazilian shipments increased by 23.9% week-over-week but decreased by 11.3% year-over-year [4][2]. - Total iron ore arrivals in China increased by 13.7% week-over-week, indicating a robust demand [4][2]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Copper** - A potential 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, effective August 1, could reduce U.S. demand by approximately 4%, translating to a 0.2% decline in global copper demand [3][12]. - The U.S. exports around 540,000 to 580,000 tons of copper scrap annually, which could help mitigate a primary deficit of 700,000 to 800,000 tons per annum, although increased recycling capacity may take 2-3 years [3][12]. 5. **Physical Demand Indicators** - Despite recent increases in copper, aluminum, and zinc inventories, overall inventories remain at their lowest levels in over five years for this time of year, indicating tight physical markets [12][13]. - China's copper premium has risen by 70% in the last two weeks, reaching approximately $50 per ton, although it remains significantly below the year-to-date high of $103 per ton [12][13]. Additional Observations - The report highlights that the next ten weeks will be critical for assessing the health of Chinese physical copper consumers, as historical trends suggest a shift towards improved demand during this period [12][13]. - The report also includes detailed tables and figures illustrating inventory levels, shipment data, and price forecasts for various metals, providing a comprehensive view of the current market dynamics [4][9][34]. Conclusion - The J.P. Morgan report provides valuable insights into the current state of the metals industry in China, highlighting trends in inventory, pricing, and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on copper demand. The data suggests a complex interplay of supply and demand factors that investors should monitor closely.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Metals & Mining Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the dynamics of the steel, iron ore, and metallurgical coal markets, highlighting current trends and future outlooks in these sectors [1] Steel Market Insights - Pre-emptive stocking and record long positioning earlier in the year, combined with weak demand from March to June, contributed to the underperformance of spot prices, which did not fully react to tariff hikes [2] - EU steel prices are at multi-year lows, but structural support and policy changes may limit further downside [2] - Inventories are normalizing, but prices remain below historical averages; tightness may emerge in the second half of the year [2] - Scrap markets are expected to recover due to substitution economics amid rising raw material costs [2] - US tariff exemptions are deemed unlikely due to complex compliance requirements, particularly concerning Chinese-origin steel [2] Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Insights - China's steel production remains robust, with mills operating above 90% capacity, driven by strong margins of $30-40 per ton [3] - The recent price rally in iron ore and steel is attributed more to sentiment and trader positioning rather than fundamentals [3] - Mills are restocking iron ore at higher prices, supported by healthy order books and margin confidence [3] - Steel demand is seasonally soft but remains flat year-over-year, with resilience in infrastructure and manufacturing offsetting weakness in the property sector [3] - A shift towards higher-grade ore is noted due to margin expansion and environmental restrictions [3] - The China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has been inactive during the recent price rally, which may affect market stability [3] US and EU Steel Price Dynamics - In the US, steel prices have moderated due to aggressive stocking ahead of anticipated tariffs, leading to a record long market [6] - EU prices have fallen to five-year lows due to ineffective safeguard duties and minimal import barriers [7] - The muted reaction in spot markets to tariff increases is attributed to weak demand across key sectors, with US domestic production up 8% year-to-date [8] Inventory and Demand Trends - US inventories have been drawn down and are close to the five-year average, but prices remain below average [9] - Recent weeks have seen service centers and fabricators begin drawing from stock, indicating a potential inflection point in demand [10] - Scrap prices in Turkey, the US, and the EU are at five-year lows, but a recovery is anticipated [13] Future Outlook - The commodities research team expects a more positive outlook for US hot-rolled coil (HRC) in 2026, supported by economic growth and increased end-use demand [15] - EU demand remains weak, but downside risk to prices appears limited, with potential support from fiscal expansions and tightening safeguard quotas [16] - China's steel demand is expected to remain flat year-over-year, with macro policy expectations and trader positioning playing significant roles in price dynamics [22] Additional Observations - A notable shift in mills' preference for high-grade iron ore is observed, driven by expanding steel margins and environmental considerations [25] - The degradation of Pilbara Blend fines has led to a discount in the premium market, which may impact pricing in the second half of the year [26] - China's National Energy Agency is inspecting potential overproduction among coal miners, which could lead to production cuts if oversupply persists [28]

Core Viewpoint - Commercial Metals (CMC) reported a decline in earnings and sales in its most recent earnings report, missing estimates, but the stock has shown a positive trend in the month following the report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 fiscal 2025 were 74 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents, and down 27.5% year over year [3]. - Net sales for the quarter were $2.02 billion, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.01 billion, but down from $2.08 billion in the previous year [3]. - Cost of goods sold decreased by 1% year over year to $1.72 billion, while gross profit fell 11.9% to $300 million [4]. - Core EBITDA was reported at $204 million, down 20.3% year over year [4]. Segment Performance - The North America Steel Group generated net sales of $1.56 billion, down from $1.67 billion year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $186 million compared to $246 million in the prior year [5]. - The Europe Steel Group's revenues increased by 18.6% year over year to $247.6 million, with adjusted EBITDA improving to $3.6 million from a negative $4.2 million [6]. - The Emerging Businesses Group reported net sales of $197 million, up from $188.5 million year over year, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 7.9% [7]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 fiscal 2025 were $893 million, up from $858 million at the end of fiscal 2024 [8]. - Long-term debt increased to $1.30 billion from $1.15 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 [8]. - Cash generated from operating activities for the nine months ended May 31, 2025, was approximately $400 million, down from $548 million in the prior year [8]. Dividend and Outlook - A quarterly dividend of 18 cents per share was declared, payable on July 9 to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025 [9]. - The company expects consolidated financial results in Q4 fiscal 2025 to improve from Q3 levels, with anticipated increases in adjusted EBITDA margins for the North America Steel Group and the Europe Steel Group [10][11]. Estimate Trends - Fresh estimates for the company have trended upward over the past month, with a consensus estimate shift of 17.21% [12]. - The stock has an average Growth Score of C and a value grade of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of B [13]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [14].