Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has made significant equity investments in at least 10 companies, focusing on critical minerals, chipmakers, and potentially nuclear reactor companies, aiming to build a domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on China [1][2]. Group 1: Government Investments - The administration's investments include a governance stake in U.S. Steel, allowing the president to veto key business decisions without a direct economic interest [2][5]. - The government is acting as a strategic investor, aiming for both commercial returns and national purposes [4]. - The Commerce Secretary indicated potential future stakes in major defense suppliers like Lockheed Martin [3]. Group 2: Specific Company Investments - **MP Materials**: A critical minerals company with a market value over $10 billion, the Pentagon agreed to buy $400 million of preferred stock, potentially giving it a 15% stake [6][7]. - **Intel**: The Commerce Department acquired a 10% stake in Intel by purchasing 433.3 million shares at $20.47 each, funded by government grants [8][9]. - **Lithium Americas**: The Department of Energy took a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and its joint venture with GM, deferring $182 million of debt service on a $2.3 billion federal loan [10][11]. - **Trilogy Metals**: The government invested $35.6 million, becoming a 10% shareholder with warrants for an additional 7.5% [12][13]. - **USA Rare Earth**: The Commerce Department issued a letter of intent for a $1.3 billion loan, resulting in an 8% to 16% stake depending on warrant exercise [14][15]. - **Westinghouse**: The government signed a deal to finance $80 billion in nuclear plants, potentially becoming an 8% shareholder if the company's value exceeds $30 billion [16][17]. - **Vulcan Elements**: A $1.4 billion partnership to build a rare earth magnet supply chain includes a $50 million equity stake for Commerce [18][19]. - **XLight**: The Commerce Department issued a letter of intent for up to $150 million in federal incentives, resulting in a $150 million equity stake [20]. - **L3Harris**: A proposed partnership includes a $1 billion investment in its rocket motor business, converting to common equity upon an IPO in 2026 [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - Investor Ross Gerber suggests that Tesla Inc. may become a division of a larger entity referred to as "X" in the future, following the acquisition of the United States Steel Corporation, which previously used the 'X' ticker symbol [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla and SpaceX Merger Speculation - Gerber indicates that Tesla and SpaceX could potentially merge in a "1-1 share deal" due to their similar valuations, with Tesla valued at approximately $1.5 trillion and SpaceX-xAI at around $1.25 trillion [3][4]. - The merger is described as a significant opportunity, with Gerber stating that "the stars/planets have aligned" for such a consolidation [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor Gary Black expresses skepticism regarding the merger's benefits for Tesla shareholders, particularly concerning potential stock dilution [5]. - Conversely, investor Anthony Pompliano has shown bullish sentiment towards Tesla, recently purchasing over $1 million in shares, citing advancements in robotics, AI, and self-driving technology as key factors in his investment decision [6].

Core Insights - ArcelorMittal S.A. reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $177 million, or 23 cents per share, a significant improvement from a loss of $390 million, or 51 cents per share, in the same quarter last year [2] - Adjusted earnings were 86 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents [2] - Total sales increased by approximately 2% year over year to $14,971 million, although this figure fell short of the consensus estimate of $15,760.7 million [2] Financial Performance - Total steel shipments decreased by 4% year over year to 13 million metric tons, missing the consensus estimate of 14.5 million metric tons [3] - In North America, sales rose by 16% year over year to $3,045 million, while crude steel production fell by 4.2% to 1,804 million metric tons [4] - Brazil saw a slight sales increase of 0.4% year over year to $2,901 million, with crude steel production rising by 3.1% to 3,636 million metric tons [5] - European sales declined by around 6% year over year to $6,736 million, with crude steel production down nearly 17% to 6,398 million metric tons [6] - Mining segment sales surged by 29% year over year to $908 million, with iron ore production totaling 10.1 million metric tons, up approximately 13.5% [7] Cash and Debt Position - At the end of the reported quarter, cash and cash equivalents stood at $5,476 million, down from $5,733 million in the previous quarter, with net debt around $7.9 billion [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates global steel demand, excluding China, to improve in 2026, with apparent steel consumption projected to grow around 2% year over year [9] - ArcelorMittal plans to invest $4.5 to $5.0 billion in capital expenditures during 2026 to enhance capacity and efficiency, targeting medium- and long-term structural demand drivers [11] Stock Performance - ArcelorMittal's shares have increased by 105.6% over the past year, contrasting with a 58.7% decline in the industry [14]

Mercuria Energy Group has entered into a joint venture with the trading and marketing arm of Indian steel giant Tata https://t.co/7RqHtptDrY ...

Tata Steel’s profit grew eight fold in the third quarter led by robust demand and production at its Indian operations that helped the steelmaker overcome rising costs https://t.co/AnKhSuI4r2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Metallus has successfully negotiated a new four-year contract with its employees, reflecting a commitment to safety, innovation, and long-term competitiveness [2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The new contract is effective from February 5, 2026, to September 30, 2029, and includes annual increases to base wages for employees [2]. - The contract provides competitive healthcare and retirement benefits, emphasizing employee wellbeing and safe operations [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Metallus (NYSE: MTUS) specializes in high-performance specialty metals, serving industries such as industrial, automotive, aerospace & defense, and energy [3]. - The company has been in the steel manufacturing business for over 100 years and reported sales of $1.1 billion in 2024 [3]. - Metallus employs approximately 1,850 people and is a leading U.S. producer of alloy steel bars and seamless mechanical tubing [3].

Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial Jobless Claims reached 231K, exceeding expectations of 212K and the previous week's 209K, marking the highest level of 2026 so far [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.844 million from a revised 1.819 million the prior week, still favorable compared to the past six months where it ranged between 1.93 and 1.97 million [3] Group 2: Earnings Reports - Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY) reported earnings of $1.26 per share, beating the Zacks consensus of $1.15, resulting in a 9.57% earnings beat, with shares up 1.7% [4] - ConocoPhillips (COP) missed earnings estimates by 6 cents, reporting $1.02 per share, leading to a 5.6% earnings miss and a 3.3% drop in shares [5] - Ralph Lauren (RL) posted earnings of $6.22 per share, surpassing expectations of $5.80 with a 7.2% positive surprise, although shares fell 6.5% due to declining annualized revenue growth [6] - Tapestry (TPR) reported earnings of $2.69 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus of $2.20, with shares up 5.9% [7] - Other notable earnings beats included Hershey's (HSY) at +21.28% and ArcelorMittal (MT) at +53.57%, while MasterCraft Boat (MCFT) had the largest beat at +81.25%, despite a revenue miss leading to a 1.2% drop in shares [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company delivered EBITDA of $6.5 billion, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per ton shipped, nearly double the margin achieved at previous cyclical low points, indicating a structural improvement in earnings power [9] - The company generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow in 2025, bringing the total since 2021 to $23.5 billion, with a proposed base dividend of $0.60 per share, marking a doubling over the past five years [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA in 2025, driven by strong performance in Liberia and the build-out of renewables capacity in India [9] - The company expects higher steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The European market has seen significant changes in trade policy, with the introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism and tariff rate quotas, creating a more level playing field for competition [4][5] - The company anticipates incremental support from trade measures in Canada and Brazil, which should positively impact results in those regions [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The growth strategy focuses on energy transition, expanding the renewables portfolio, and building electrical steel capacities to support electrification and mobility [6][7] - The company aims to maintain competitiveness by allocating capital to high-return opportunities while consistently returning cash to shareholders [7][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation [11] - The management highlighted the importance of customer demand as a signpost for bringing idle capacity online, ensuring profitability and sustainable returns on capital [19] Other Important Information - The company has a strong focus on safety, with measurable progress in safety KPIs and a commitment to achieving zero fatalities and serious injuries [3] - The share count has been reduced by 38% over the past five years, significantly enhancing value per share [10] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Capacity ramp-up in Europe - The company is well-positioned to bring idle capacity online quickly, with a focus on customer demand and ensuring profitable returns on capital before increasing capacity [19] Question: Profit bridges from Q4 to Q1 - North America is expected to see a recovery in volumes and prices, while Europe will also experience higher shipments and prices, particularly in Q2 [24][26] Question: Decarbonization projects in Europe - The company is evaluating decarbonization projects sequentially, with a focus on economic viability and maintaining a CapEx guidance of $4.5 billion to $5 billion [31][32] Question: Market consolidation in Europe - The company is comfortable with its current footprint in Europe and does not see significant benefits from further consolidation at this time [73] Question: Impact of import quotas - The company is prepared to meet the demand created by the displacement of imports, with no significant additional CapEx required to maintain market share [52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company delivered EBITDA of $6.5 billion, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per ton shipped, nearly double the margin achieved at previous cyclical low points, indicating a structural improvement in earnings power [9] - The company generated $1.9 billion of investable cash flow in 2025, bringing the total since 2021 to $23.5 billion, with a proposed base dividend of $0.60 per share, marking a doubling of the dividend over the past five years [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion of new EBITDA in 2025, driven by strong performance in Liberia and the build-out of renewables capacity in India [9] - The company expects higher steel production and shipments across all regions in 2026, supported by operational improvements and strengthened trade protections [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The European market has seen significant changes in trade policy, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which is expected to create a more balanced market structure and restore profitability [4][5] - The company anticipates that trade measures in Canada and Brazil will provide incremental support to results in those regions [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The growth strategy focuses on energy transition, expanding the renewables portfolio, and building electrical steel capacities to support electrification and mobility [6][7] - The company remains committed to capital allocation where the strongest returns can be achieved, consistently generating solid investable cash flow [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate positive free cash flows in 2026 and beyond, emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital allocation [11] - The management highlighted the importance of customer demand as a signpost for bringing idle capacity online, ensuring profitability and sustainable returns on capital [19] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its share count by 38% over the past five years, significantly enhancing value per share [10] - The management is focused on maintaining a balance between returning capital to shareholders and investing in growth opportunities [60][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: How quickly can you bring additional capacity online in Europe? - The company is well positioned to bring idle capacity online quickly, with no significant reline or rehiring needed, aiming to meet projected deadlines [19] Question: What are the signposts for bringing capacity online? - Customer demand is the primary signpost, with a focus on ensuring profitable returns on capital employed [19] Question: Can you provide insights on the profit bridges from Q4 to Q1? - North America is expected to see a recovery in volumes and prices, while Europe will also experience higher shipments and prices, particularly in Q2 [23][24] Question: What are the next steps for decarbonization projects in Europe? - The company is evaluating decarbonization of its Dunkirk facility, with a focus on economic viability and sequential project execution [31][32] Question: What is the outlook for the European market and potential consolidation? - The company is comfortable with its current footprint in Europe and does not see significant benefits from further consolidation at this time [73] Question: How is the company addressing risks in India and Mexico? - The company acknowledges heightened risks but remains confident in the growth potential in India, with ongoing government support for the steel industry [88][90]

4Q 2025 and FY 2025 Financial Results February 5, 2026 1. LTIFR = Lost time injury frequency rate defined as Lost Time Injuries (LTI) per 1,000,000 worked hours (own personnel and contractors) and includes fatalities; A LTI is an incident that causes an injury that prevents the person from returning to his/her next scheduled shift or work period Year 1 (2025) – Laying the foundations for change Year 2 – Shifting into the implementation and scale phase Roadmaps have been established at the Corporate and site ...