Defence Spending Outlook - The UK government plans to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, up from 2.3% in 2024, with a long-term goal of reaching 3.0% in the next Parliament[4] - This increase is expected to generate a near-term demand boost of approximately 0.15%[6] - Additional demand from increased European defence spending could raise demand by a further 0.1%[19] Economic Implications - The fiscal impulse model indicates that the increase to 2.5% of GDP will boost demand, but broader fiscal consolidation keeps the overall fiscal impulse negative[14] - If defence spending reaches 3.0% of GDP, the demand boost could be limited to an additional 0.15% due to potential tax increases and spending restraint in other departments[34] - The long-term impact on GDP growth is contingent on whether increased spending enhances supply capacity, particularly through R&D investments[41] Funding and Fiscal Constraints - The increase in defence spending will be financed by cuts to the foreign aid budget, which should not significantly offset the demand impact[14] - The Chancellor has limited fiscal headroom of £9.9 billion against the deficit rule, restricting the ability to increase day-to-day spending without offsetting measures[28] - The government may need to consider tax increases or spending cuts in other areas to fund further increases in defence spending[33]

Economic Indicators - Global hard data shows resilience while soft data normalizes, indicating a stable economic environment[3] - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased primarily due to equities, short rates, and credit spreads, reflecting tighter financial conditions[8] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for May shows a global increase of +1.6% month-on-month annualized, with emerging markets leading at +3.6%[12][47] GDP Forecasts - Goldman Sachs revised its GDP forecast for 2025, with notable increases in Japan and the Euro Area, while Canada saw a decrease[10][93] - The change in GDP forecast since 60 days ago shows Taiwan with an increase of +1.9 percentage points, while Turkey increased by +1.2 percentage points in the last week[10][93] Inflation Trends - The trimmed core inflation forecast for 2025 indicates a decrease across several regions, with Turkey showing the largest increase of +1.9 percentage points[88][90] - The inflation forecast for 2026 also reflects similar trends, with notable adjustments in various countries, including a decrease in the UK and Canada[90][91] Labor Market Insights - The jobs-workers gap has shown significant changes since December 2019, with the US and UK experiencing notable declines[21][70] - Wage trackers indicate a steady increase in wage growth across G10 economies, with the US showing a composition-adjusted increase[63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish view on the USD, recommending short positions against CLP, TRY, and KRW [10][20]. Core Insights - The report expresses cautious optimism for major Latin American economies, particularly favoring Brazil's rates while indicating that Mexico's valuations are less attractive [3]. - In Asia, the report anticipates that USD weakness will support AXJ currencies, although gains may be tempered by slowing global trade [4]. - The report expects EM bonds to deliver decent total returns but to underperform Treasuries, with EM currencies gaining against the USD but lagging behind other safe havens [5][64]. Summary by Sections Latin America - The report highlights Brazil's nominal and real rates as favorable, while expressing caution regarding Mexico's valuations [3][62]. - A short USD/CLP position is recommended due to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and potential political developments [48][51]. Asia - The report suggests that AXJ currencies will appreciate due to USD weakness, with a focus on idiosyncratic stories amid potential shifts in monetary and fiscal policies [4][67]. - Long KRW positions are favored based on supportive macro factors, despite acknowledging risks of a near-term rebound in USD/KRW [35][39]. Global EM Fixed Income - The report anticipates a rally in EM fixed income, driven by a disinflation process across regions, although it notes significant uncertainty in the US and a global economic slowdown [5][64][68]. - It projects local currency index bond yields to drop around 20 basis points by year-end, with expectations for US Treasuries to fall by about 50 basis points [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's trade growth moderated in May, with exports increasing by 4.8% year-over-year (yoy) and imports decreasing by 3.4% yoy, falling short of consensus expectations [1][9] - The decline in exports to the US continued, with a sequential decline of 17% after seasonal adjustment, following a 25% decline in April [1][9] - The trade surplus for May was reported at US$103.2 billion, an increase from US$96.2 billion in April [1][3] Summary by Sections Trade Growth - Year-over-year trade growth in May showed exports rising by 4.8% yoy compared to 8.1% yoy in April, while imports fell by 3.4% yoy from a decline of 0.2% yoy in April [2][9] - Sequentially, exports decreased by 0.7% non-annualized in May, while imports dropped by 6.3% non-annualized [2][9] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US fell significantly, with a 34.5% yoy decline in May, while exports to the EU rose by 12.0% yoy [10] - Imports from the US also declined by 18.1% yoy, while imports from the EU remained roughly unchanged [10] Product Categories - Export values for housing-related products fell, with home appliances declining by 8.9% yoy, while automobile exports increased by 13.7% yoy and chip exports rose by 33.4% yoy [11] - Import values for energy products and metal ores saw notable declines, with crude oil imports falling by 22.1% yoy [12]

Investment Rating - The report provides a bearish outlook for equities, particularly for the S&P 500, MSCI Europe, and MSCI Emerging Markets, with expected returns showing significant declines in the bear case scenario [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in China’s exports to the US, which fell by 34.4% year-over-year in May, indicating potential economic challenges [8][9]. - EU momentum has reached an all-time high, suggesting strong economic performance in the region [14]. - Silver prices have surged to their highest level since 2011, reflecting increased demand and market volatility [15]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from 6,000 in a bear case to 7,200 in a bull case, with a base case return of 4,900, indicating a -17.1% change in the bear scenario [3]. - MSCI Europe and MSCI Emerging Markets show similar bearish trends with expected returns of 1,610 and 870 respectively in the bear case [3]. FX (Foreign Exchange) - The JPY is expected to depreciate to 145 in the bear case, while the EUR is forecasted to remain stable at 1.14 in the base case [3]. - The GBP and AUD are also projected to see slight declines in their respective bear scenarios [3]. Rates - The UST 10-year yield is forecasted to be 4.51% in the bear case, with a base case of 4.00% [3]. - Other government bonds like DBR 10-year and UKT 10-year show similar trends with expected returns reflecting a bearish outlook [3]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is expected to see a significant drop to 45 in the bear case, while gold is forecasted to decline to 2,760 [3]. - Copper prices are also projected to fall to 7,790 in the bear scenario, indicating a bearish outlook for commodities overall [3]. Market Sentiment - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflects negative sentiment across various asset classes, suggesting a risk-off environment [58]. - The report indicates a significant divergence in positioning among different asset classes, with equities showing a more negative sentiment compared to bonds [63]. Cross-Asset Positioning - The report details net positioning across various markets, highlighting that US equities have a net positioning of 26% among managers, while EM equities show a higher net positioning of 42% [63]. - In the bond market, UST 10-year shows a net positioning of 38%, indicating a cautious approach among investors [63].

文/梧桐数据中心 2025年1-5月，共计有29家公司登陆港交所，其中27家通过IPO方式上市，另有1家通过借壳SPAC上市（找钢集团-Ｗ），1家GEM转主板上市（比优集团），这两 家不纳入本次统计中。港股首发上市的27家公司的IPO中介机构包括23家券商、21家香港律师事务所、15家中国内地律师事务所、6家审计机构，其中，中金公司 保荐8单，位列第一，华泰国际6单、招银国际5单，位列二三；达维律所和通商律所分别占据香港、中国法律顾问之首，业务单数各5单；"四大"则包揽了近90%的 审计业务，安永、毕马威各9单，德勤、罗兵咸永道各3单。 一、保荐人业绩排名 2025年1-5月，共有23家保荐人为这27家香港IPO上市公司提供了保荐服务，其中联合保荐的拆开计算，各计1单。 榜单前三名： 第一名：中金公司（8单） 第二名：华泰国际（6单） 第三名：招银国际（5单） | 排名 | 保荐人 | 业务单数 | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 中金公司 | 8 | | 2 | 华泰国际 | 6 | | 3 | 招银国际 | 5 | | 4 1 | 中信证券 (香港) WOOD REE | | | 5 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - JPMorgan remains a top player in investment banking, ranking 1 in global IB fees, with total IB fees soaring 37% to $8.91 billion in 2024 after declines in 2023 and 2022 [1] - In Q1 2025, JPMorgan's IB fees grew 12% year over year to $2.18 billion, driven by strong advisory and debt underwriting activity [1][9] - Morgan Stanley's IB revenues rebounded 36% in 2024 to $6.71 billion and rose another 8% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector [5] - Goldman Sachs continues to dominate the IB business, maintaining a top position in announced and completed M&As, despite an 8% year-over-year fall in IB revenues in Q1 2025 [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - Near-term IB prospects for JPMorgan are clouded by market turmoil and monetary policy ambiguity, with a cautious stance adopted on the investment banking outlook [2] - Economic uncertainty is expected to hurt JPMorgan's IB business in Q2 2024, with IB fees projected to decline in the mid-teens range year over year [2] - Despite challenges, JPMorgan's long-term outlook for the IB business remains strong, supported by a healthy IB pipeline and an active M&A market, with an estimated CAGR of 2.2% for IB fees by 2027 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - JPMorgan shares have risen 10.8% this year, outperforming Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's 2025 earnings implies a decline of 7% year over year, with a rebound of 5.2% expected in 2026 [9][13] - JPMorgan currently trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 2.81X, slightly below the industry average [10]

Core Points - Major corporate leaders, including CEOs from Uber, Dell, and Goldman Sachs, are set to announce a collective investment of billions into "Trump accounts" for employees' children [1][2] - The investment commitment will be made during President Trump's "Invest America" roundtable event, which promotes a pilot program that deposits $1,000 from the government into investment accounts for newborn Americans [2] - The program, previously known as "MAGA Accounts," aims to establish index fund accounts with $1,000 in government funds for U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028 [3] Corporate Participation - Notable participants in the roundtable include: - Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies - Brad Gerstner, CEO of Altimeter Capital - Rene Haas, CEO of Arm Holdings - Parker Harris, CTO of Slack and cofounder of Salesforce - William McDermott, CEO of ServiceNow - Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs - Vladimir Tenev, cofounder and CEO of Robinhood [4] Legislative Context - The provision for creating these accounts has already passed the House as part of a significant budget bill, which is currently pending in the Senate facing opposition from fiscally conservative Republicans [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China FX and rates markets, with a bias towards CNY appreciation against the USD following trade de-escalation [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a revised 2025 real GDP growth forecast of 4.6% year-on-year, up from 4.0%, driven by stronger-than-expected real export growth [4]. - The USD/CNY forecasts have been adjusted to 7.20/7.10/7.00 over a 3/6/12-month horizon, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the CNY [4]. - The report notes a bear steepener in the yield curve following a 10bp rate cut by the PBOC, with improved growth prospects leading to rising long-end rates [5]. Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell below 7.2 in May, indicating a strengthening bias for the CNY [9]. - The report discusses the narrowing of the countercyclical factor to near zero, suggesting a more stable CNY fixing mechanism [10][11]. Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in May, indicating stable market conditions [21]. - Short-term momentum to buy EUR and sell CNH fell notably in May, reflecting changing investor sentiment [22]. Fundamentals - China's trade balance fell in April due to a lower goods trade surplus, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the economy [34]. - Travel exports in March 2025 were around 151% of 2019 levels, while travel imports rose to approximately 98% of 2019 levels, indicating a recovery in the services sector [36]. Rates - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates rose in May after a 10bp policy rate cut, reflecting market adjustments to monetary policy [41]. - Front-end rates moved sideways following the rate cut, indicating a stabilization in short-term interest rates [42]. Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in May primarily through a 50bp RRR cut, enhancing market liquidity [61]. - Financial leveraging in the bond market rose further in May as interbank repo rates fell, indicating increased market activity [63]. Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 940 billion in May 2025, reflecting an acceleration in bond issuance [69]. - The average CGB auction size increased further in May, signaling a robust demand for government bonds [75].

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...