Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is discussing a new "payment account" for payment firms, which would provide basic access to Fed payment services while limiting certain features of full master accounts [1][3] Group 1: Proposal Details - The proposed account would allow access to Fed payment rails but would have balance caps, pay no interest, not allow overdrafts, and not provide access to emergency lending [3] - This initiative is framed within the payments mandate, focusing on settlement efficiency and risk controls rather than credit creation or deposit taking [4] Group 2: Implications for Crypto and Fintech Firms - The new account could reduce delays and costs for crypto-facing firms that currently route dollar flows through sponsor banks, thereby standardizing access for eligible firms [5][6] - A more direct link to Fed payment services could streamline operations for stablecoin issuers, allowing for quicker redemptions and subscriptions [6] Group 3: Future Considerations - Banks with payment subsidiaries may be the first to adopt this new account, followed by fintech and crypto firms with strong compliance programs [8] - The effectiveness of the account for stablecoin issuers and tokenized fund operators will depend on balance caps, liquidity requirements, and transaction monitoring expectations [8]

It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts, and three trades. Rick Ducat, of course, taking us through the charts today.And here to take us through the trades is Don Kaufman, co-founder of Theo Trade. Great to have you both with us. Don, let's kick things off right with this first pick you've got for us today.Lenar in the homebuilder space, heavily under pressure. Although, as I was looking at their chart, they are trying to stage a bit of a rally here. >> Yeah, and that's exactly wha ...

Performance Overview - The Third Avenue Value Fund achieved a return of 11.85% for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the MSCI World Index (7.36%) and the MSCI World Value Index (5.98%) [2] - Year-to-date, the Fund returned 26.04%, compared to 17.83% for the MSCI World Index and 17.54% for the MSCI World Value Index [2] - Annualized performance for the trailing three-year and five-year periods was 23.24% and 23.66%, respectively [2] Key Contributors to Performance - Capstone Copper was the largest contributor, benefiting from the expansion of its Mantoverde mine and rising copper prices due to tight global supplies and operational disruptions in major mining regions [3] - Lundin Mining also contributed positively, aided by rising copper and gold prices, with its Brazilian copper mine being a significant asset [3] - Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek project began production ahead of schedule, expected to significantly increase production volumes and reduce costs [4] - Close Brothers benefited from a favorable U.K. Supreme Court ruling, improving the outlook for U.K. lenders involved in motor finance [5] Negative Contributors to Performance - Negative contributions were limited, with easyJet, Ayala Corp., S4 Capital, Interfor, and Boise Cascade noted as underperformers [7] - Boise Cascade and Interfor are exposed to the cyclical downturn in U.S. housing starts and repair activity, presenting potential opportunities for undervalued investments [7] Investment Themes - European companies were significant contributors to performance, with Deutsche Bank and Bank of Ireland showing improved health and operating performance [8][9] - The Fund reduced its position in Deutsche Bank despite its strong performance, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [9] New Investments - The Fund initiated positions in Boise Cascade, Rogers Corp., and Ayala Corp. during the quarter [32] - Boise Cascade is viewed as inexpensive with potential for recovery in housing-related demand, supported by a strong financial position [34] - Rogers Corporation has valuable intellectual property but has struggled to grow; recent management changes may enhance its competitive position [38] - Ayala Corp. is trading at multi-decade low valuations, with potential catalysts for value creation through asset monetizations and share repurchases [40][41]

Core Insights - Nigeria's central bank has established a task force to explore the adoption of stablecoins, raising concerns about the future of the eNaira digital currency [1][2] - The eNaira has seen sluggish adoption, with only 0.5% of Nigerians using it a year after its launch, and 98.5% of wallets remaining inactive [3][5] - The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is collaborating with the Ministry of Finance and other regulators to assess the implications of introducing an official Nigerian stablecoin [2][8] eNaira Performance - The total transaction volume for the eNaira since its launch is approximately ₦29.3 billion, with over 850,000 transactions recorded, which is significantly low for a country with over 200 million people [4] - By early 2024, the number of eNaira wallets reached 13 million, but most remain unused, indicating a lack of engagement [3][4] - The eNaira mobile app has been removed from Google Play, and the USSD code for access is no longer functional, further complicating user access [4] Public Sentiment and Challenges - Public sentiment towards the eNaira is largely negative, with users expressing frustration over its usability and lack of benefits compared to cash or private cryptocurrencies, leading to nicknames like "E-vanish" and "E-dead" [6][7] - The CBN has acknowledged the failure of the eNaira to gain widespread acceptance, attributing it to low awareness and inadequate user education [5][6] Future Directions - Efforts to revive the eNaira include a partnership with blockchain firm Gluwa to enhance technical infrastructure and plans to expand its use for government payments [6] - CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized the importance of balancing innovation with risk management in discussions about stablecoins during global financial meetings [8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold experienced its worst single-day drop in 12 years, ending a record-breaking rally, but the underlying supply-and-demand dynamics remain strong, even at overbought levels in the short term [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Spot gold was trading around $4,140 per ounce, down from a record $4,381.21 per ounce, reflecting a significant price fluctuation [2]. - Prices have increased by as much as 60% as investors, including central banks and private funds, sought protection from inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks, while supply remains constrained [3]. Central Bank Influence - Central banks have been steadily increasing their gold holdings since 2008, creating a higher price floor for gold [3]. - The demand from the official sector is seen as a stabilizing force for gold prices, with central banks likely to continue diversifying their reserve holdings in gold due to fiscal uncertainties and geopolitical risks [5]. Macroeconomic Factors - Gold's characteristics as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value are particularly appealing in the context of high US government debt, which negatively impacts Treasuries [4]. - Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to sustain further demand for gold, prompting analysts to raise their 12-month gold price target from $3,900 to $4,600 per ounce [6]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the recent drop, investor interest in gold remains strong due to ongoing inflation fears and global turmoil, with central banks expected to continue increasing their gold purchases [7].

Economic Policy and Central Banks - The Fed needs to consider reforms, particularly regarding quantitative easing (QE), which has not been stimulative and has contributed to wealth inequality [1][2] - There is a call for the Fed to allow more market functionality and to be open to changes, especially concerning stable coins and short-term markets [1][2] - The current high capital gains tax in the US is seen as detrimental to market dynamism, and lowering it could lead to increased investment and growth [1][2][3] Taxation and Growth - Tax cuts are advocated for both the US and Japan to stimulate growth, with Japan's high marginal tax rate of 45% being a concern [1][2] - The idea of a temporary capital gains tax holiday is proposed, suggesting it could lead to a windfall for the government and potentially be extended if successful [2][3] - The impact of tax policies on market behavior is highlighted, with lower tax rates leading to increased equity values as they reflect growth opportunities [2][3] Interest Rates and National Debt - The current short-term interest rates set by the Fed at 4.15% are considered too high, especially in relation to long-term rates, indicating the Fed is behind the curve [3][4] - There is a concern that the national debt is too large, which could affect the demand for dollars, but recent trends show a preference for US assets as gold prices decline [3][4] - A suggestion for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates is made, arguing that the Fed should have started cutting earlier to align with market conditions [4][5]

Corporate Earnings - Tesla (TSLA) is the first of the Magnificent Seven companies to report earnings, with significant attention from investors [1][4] - S&P 500 companies are expected to see an average quarterly earnings increase of +7.2% for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years [1] Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes ended mixed, with General Motors (GM) gaining over +14% after better-than-expected Q3 results and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance [3] - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) climbed more than +10% after announcing a review of strategic alternatives [3] - Halliburton (HAL) surged over +11% following stronger-than-expected Q3 results [3] - Netflix (NFLX) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading due to weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS [5][15] - Texas Instruments (TXN) plunged more than -8% in pre-market trading after posting weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS and underwhelming Q4 guidance [5][15] Economic Indicators - Investors are awaiting the EIA's weekly crude oil inventories report, with expectations of 2.2 million barrels compared to last week's 3.5 million barrels [6] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 96.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [7] International Market Trends - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.44% as investors react to mixed corporate earnings reports and uncertainty in U.S. negotiations with other nations [10] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed just below the flatline, with automobile stocks outperforming due to a weaker yen and hopes for lower gasoline taxes [13] - Japan's September exports rose +4.2% year-on-year, although this was weaker than expectations [14]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility, with gold dipping below $4,100 an ounce after a more than 5% drop on Tuesday, marking the sharpest pullback in over five years [1][2] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking and a general market correction after a strong performance, with no clear catalyst identified for the drop [1][2] - Analysts noted that gold was "massively overbought," indicating a potential for further market corrections in other sectors as well [2] Group 2: Global Equity and Bond Markets - European stocks, represented by the STOXX 600 index, fell by 0.3% after nearing a record high, while major Asian markets also showed declines [2] - Despite the selloff in gold, other safe-haven assets like bonds remained stable, with European government debt yields largely unchanged [3][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields reached a one-year closing low, influencing global borrowing costs and prompting investors to buy UK 'gilts' following steady inflation data [4][5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with uncertainty surrounding planned summits between U.S. President Trump and leaders from Russia and China [3] - The ambiguity in international relations is contributing to market volatility, although it has not significantly impacted safe-haven assets like bonds [3] Group 4: Economic Stimulus in Japan - Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is expected to exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen ($92.19 billion) to assist households with inflation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of U.S. economic policies, global economic conditions, and market sentiment on gold prices and investment strategies [2][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,378.69 but fell by 1.77% ($76.62) last Friday, despite a 5.8% increase over the week [2][29]. - Year-to-date returns for gold stand at 61.8%, and returns from the end of 2022 to last Friday are at 133%, indicating a significant decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar over the past two years [2][29]. - Bitcoin experienced a 7.8% drop from its peak last week and has declined by 10.6% over the past three months [2][29]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - There are concerns that short-term gold and silver prices may have peaked, but during a bull market, corrections can present buying opportunities [2][29]. - The sentiment in the market is influenced by fears regarding the health of U.S. regional banks, leading to a sell-off in bank stocks and profit-taking in gold and silver futures [2][29]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that the U.S. will continue to lower interest rates next year, which is seen as favorable for gold prices [3][30]. - The article suggests that global economic conditions are likely to worsen, particularly outside of China, with signs of stagflation becoming more apparent [5][30]. - Despite increased retail demand for gold and silver, the article posits that retail investors may not have sufficient capital to drive prices significantly higher [5][30]. Group 4: CFTC Data Summary - As of September 23, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1.1% to 493 million, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 5.1% to 6,231 million [6][10]. - The net long position in platinum increased by 24.8% to 28 million, while net long positions in copper turned positive after a significant decline [13][15]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, increased by 2.5% to 81.942, with a year-to-date decline of 9.8% [26]. - The ratio of gold prices to North American gold mining stocks has risen by 2.13% over the past two weeks, indicating a potential divergence in market performance [20][22]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the potential for inflation to resurge if the U.S. begins to lower interest rates, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve [34][29]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend on the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [34][29].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have experienced significant declines after reaching high levels, as investors took profits amid concerns of overvaluation following recent surges in precious metals [1][2][3]. Price Movements - Spot gold traded near $4,090 per ounce, having dropped as much as 6.3% in the previous session, marking the largest intraday decline in over a dozen years [2][9]. - Silver prices also fell, with a peak decline of 8.7% noted on Tuesday [2][9]. - As of the latest report, spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,091.63 per ounce, while silver dropped 0.4% to $48.5377 per ounce [9]. Market Dynamics - The recent pullback halted a rapid price increase that began in mid-August, driven by the "debasement trade" where investors sought alternatives to sovereign debt and currencies due to concerns over budget deficits [3][5]. - Gold prices have increased nearly 60% this year, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and central banks diversifying away from the US dollar [3][5]. Investor Behavior - Investors are taking profits as many are long on gold at favorable averages, indicating a strategic decision to realize gains [4]. - Citigroup Inc has adjusted its gold recommendation from overweight to a more cautious stance, anticipating further consolidation around $4,000 per ounce [6]. Technical Analysis - The current decline in gold is viewed as a significant correction, with potential for further drops if prices break below $4,000 [8]. - Silver has shown even more volatility, with a historic squeeze in the London market driving prices to record levels, prompting significant outflows from stockpiles [8].