Investment Highlights - The smart car index decreased by 3.3%, while the index excluding Tesla increased by 0.2%, and the index excluding complete vehicles decreased by 0.1% [4][11] - As of February 6, 2026, the smart car index PS (TTM) is 14.5x, placing it in the 98th percentile since the beginning of 2023; the index excluding Tesla is 5.7x, in the 81st percentile; and the index excluding complete vehicles is 9.7x, in the 79th percentile [4][20] - The top five gainers in the smart car index include Hesai, Li Auto, Xingyu, Kaile, and Pony.ai [4][11] Industry Core Changes - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued the "Automobile Data Export Security Guidelines (2026 Edition)," requiring data processors to declare data export security assessments through domestic legal entities [5][11] - Uber announced plans to launch Robotaxi autonomous taxi services in Hong Kong within this year, partnering with Baidu and WeRide [5][11] - WeRide and Uber plan to deploy at least 1,200 Robotaxis in the Middle East by 2027, covering major markets such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh [5][11] Current Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong outlook for the 2026 L4 RoboX main line, favoring B-end software stocks over C-end hardware stocks [6][11] - Preferred H-shares include Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai/WeRide, Cao Cao Mobility, and Black Sesame Intelligence; preferred A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hirain [6][11] - Relevant stocks from the downstream application perspective include: - Robotaxi perspective: Integrated models (Tesla/Xpeng Motors), technology providers with revenue-sharing models (Horizon/Baidu/Pony.ai/WeRide/Qianli Technology), and the transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services (Didi/Cao Cao Mobility/Ruqi Mobility/Public Transport/Jinjiang Online) [6][11] - Robovan perspective: Desay SV and Jiushi Intelligent/New Stone Technology [6][11] - Other autonomous vehicle perspectives: Mining trucks (Hesai Intelligent Driving), ports (Jingwei Hirain), sanitation vehicles (Yingfeng Environment), and buses (WeRide) [6][11] Upstream Supply Chain Relevant Stocks - B-end autonomous vehicle OEMs include BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, Jiangling Motors, and Tongli Co [7][11] - Key upstream suppliers include testing services (China Automotive Research/China Automotive Technology), chips (Horizon Robotics/Black Sesame Intelligence), domain controllers (Desay SV/Jingwei Hirain/Junsheng Electronics/Huayang Group/Koboda), sensors (Hesai/Suteng Juchuang), steer-by-wire chassis (Bertley/Nexteer/Zhejiang Shibao), lights (Xingyu), and glass (Fuyao Glass) [7][11]

Investment Highlights - The SW auto parts index increased by 0.34% this week, ranking 4th among SW automotive sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 3.20% [3][14] - The latest PE (TTM) for SW auto parts is at the 83.10% historical percentile, while the PB (LF) is at the 77.55% historical percentile [3][35] - The Wande robot index decreased by 0.21% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 0.27%, underperforming the SW auto parts sector by 0.55% [4][14] - The latest PE (TTM) for the Wande robot index is at the 67.47% historical percentile, and the PB (LF) is at the 77.11% historical percentile [4][44] Key Stock Movements - The top five gainers this week are: - Yinchuan Co., Ltd. +17.13% - Xingyu Co., Ltd. +8.65% - Daimai Co., Ltd. +6.67% - Yap Co., Ltd. +3.71% - Ruima Precision +2.74% [6][51] Major Events - On February 4, Elon Musk publicly praised Optimus again - On February 8, Zhiyuan will host the world's first large-scale robot gala [7][45] Core Coverage Changes - Xinquan announced a $100 million investment in Bayern Xinquan and the establishment of subsidiaries in Malaysia and Kaifeng - Precision Forging Technology established a subsidiary in Germany [8][54] Investment Recommendations - For auto parts, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value sectors to increase ASP, with a priority on potential leading companies in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [9][56] - For robots, seek certainty in opportunities, with Musk stating that Optimus V3 is expected to be released in Q1 2026, and monitor the order timeline and application deployment by domestic companies like Xiaopeng, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [9][56]

Core Insights - Lucid Group, Inc. has appointed Neil Marsons as the Senior Vice President of Supply Chain to enhance its global supply chain capabilities [1][4] - Marsons brings over 20 years of experience from roles at Rolls Royce and JCB, and has previously advised Lucid on supply chain strategy [2][3] - The appointment is part of Lucid's broader strategy to accelerate growth and improve operational efficiency as it prepares for the launch of new vehicle platforms [5] Company Developments - Marsons will report to Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff and is expected to strengthen supply chain reliability, performance, and cost efficiency [3][4] - Claudia Gast, the former Senior Vice President of Strategy and Business Development, will be leaving the company to pursue other opportunities [4] - Recent leadership changes also include the appointment of Marnie Levergood as Senior Vice President of Quality and promotions for Emad Dlala and Erwin Raphel [5] Industry Context - Lucid Group focuses on creating advanced electric vehicles, with its manufacturing facilities located in Arizona and Saudi Arabia [6] - The company aims to leverage its technology and innovation to enhance the electric vehicle market and improve operational excellence [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ford is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results, with an EPS estimate of 17 cents and automotive revenues of $41.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline in both metrics [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter has increased by 10 cents over the past month, but it still represents a 56% decline year-over-year. Revenue estimates indicate an 8% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full year 2025, automotive revenues are projected at $173 billion, showing a modest 1% increase year-over-year, while the EPS consensus indicates a 39% contraction. However, the EPS for 2026 is expected to grow by 35.2% from 2025 levels [3]. Performance Indicators - Ford has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the past four quarters, and current indicators suggest a strong likelihood of an earnings beat this time, supported by an Earnings ESP of +16.06% and a Zacks Rank of 1 [4]. - The most accurate EPS estimate for the current quarter is 19 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 17 cents [5]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Ford's overall sales rose by 2.7% in Q4 2025, totaling over 545,200 vehicles, with hybrid sales increasing by 17.6% year-over-year [8]. - The company faces challenges in its EV segment, with a significant drop in EV sales exceeding 50% due to the withdrawal of the federal EV tax credit, particularly affecting F-150 Lightning volumes [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - Ford anticipates $19.5 billion in special charges related to restructuring its U.S. EV strategy, with $5.5 billion impacting cash flows through 2026 and 2027 [7]. - The Ford Pro unit is expected to contribute positively, with projected revenues of approximately $15 billion and EBIT of $1.4 billion, driven by rising paid software subscriptions [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Over the past six months, Ford's shares have increased by 24%, outperforming the industry and Tesla, while underperforming General Motors [10]. - The company is currently trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.32, indicating it may be undervalued compared to the industry [13]. Future Growth Prospects - Ford is shifting its focus towards hybrids and gas-powered vehicles in response to slowing EV adoption, which is expected to help maintain margins and volume [15]. - The company is also exploring future growth avenues, including a battery energy storage systems business and advancements in autonomous driving technology [18].

I am a journalist based in Detroit, having spent almost my entire career writing about business and economic subjects for The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Detroit Free Press and Bloomberg. I'm the author of two books and am an acknowledged expert on the world automotive industry.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receivin ...

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