今早，现货黄金率先开盘，截至发稿，伦敦金直线走高，不过，COMEX黄金却出现飘绿走势，美联储选帅不确定性再度增加。 | < W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 4362.695 tra | | | 4338.360 总量 | | | +24.335 | +0.56% 升益 | | 4339.420 现手 | | | 最高价 | 4363.697 持 仓 | | 0 外 雷 | | | 最低价 | 4337.145 增 仓 | | 0 内 雷 | | | 分时 | 五日 目K | | 周K | 車名 | | 章加 | | | 均价:0.000 | | | 4363.697 --- | | | ·· | 4363.075 | | | | | ST- | 4362.695 | | | | 8:02 4362.730 | | | | | | 8:02 4362.660 | | | | 4338.360 | | 8:02 4363.200 | 0.00% | | | | | 8:02 4362.840 ...

Group 1 - US stock index futures are rising, with the Dow Jones futures up approximately 80 points, a 0.2% increase, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are also up [1][3] - West Texas Intermediate crude futures have increased following the US seizure of another oil tanker linked to Venezuela, with investigations ongoing for another vessel [1][3] - Gold futures have declined, while silver futures have risen [1][3] Group 2 - The "Santa Claus rally" is a seasonal pattern where historically, the stock market tends to rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, potentially providing momentum for the new year [1][3] - Despite the S&P 500 index being down for December so far, hopes for a year-end rebound remain, bolstered by last Friday's increase in the index [1][3] - Stephen Innes from SPI Asset Management suggests that the market is not in a frenzy but is also not feeling cornered, with moderate inflation, cooling economic growth, and ample liquidity contributing to a favorable environment for a year-end rally [2][4]

Core Insights - Pershing Square Capital Management, led by Bill Ackman, maintains a concentrated portfolio focused on high-conviction investments, emphasizing dominant franchises and long-duration cash flows [1][2] Portfolio Overview - The majority of capital is allocated to a few global compounders, with modest and selective position changes reflecting maintenance around core convictions rather than dramatic rotations [2][14] Key Holdings - **Uber Technologies (UBER)**: 30,270,518 shares valued at $2.97 billion, representing over 20% of the portfolio; slight reduction of 30,643 shares indicates rebalancing rather than a change in conviction [3][4] - **Brookfield Corp (BN)**: 41,020,231 shares valued at $2.81 billion, about 19% of assets; modest trim of 140,166 shares reinforces its status as a core compounding vehicle [5] - **Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH)**: 18,852,064 shares valued at $1.55 billion; unchanged position reflects patience in long-term real estate development strategy [6] - **Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)**: 6,324,031 shares valued at $1.54 billion; unchanged position highlights its role as a durable cash-generating franchise [7] - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: 22,915,496 shares valued at $1.47 billion; slight reduction of 85,418 shares, yet remains a top holding with significant growth potential [8] - **Amazon.com (AMZN)**: 5,823,316 shares valued at $1.28 billion; unchanged position indicates confidence in long-term cash flow potential [9] - **Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)**: 4,843,973 shares valued at $1.18 billion; reduction of 519,007 shares (-9.68%) reflects portfolio concentration management [10] - **Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)**: 21,541,177 shares valued at $844.2 million; unchanged position emphasizes operational excellence and brand-driven unit economics [11] - **Hilton Worldwide (HLT)**: 3,030,578 shares valued at $786.3 million; steady holding reflects confidence in asset-light lodging models [12] - **Seaport Entertainment Group (SEG)**: 5,023,780 shares valued at $115.1 million; stable position with no activity this quarter [13] Strategic Takeaways - The portfolio remains extremely concentrated, with the top five positions accounting for the majority of assets, reinforcing a preference for depth over breadth [14] - Changes in the portfolio were incremental, consisting mainly of small trims rather than aggressive repositioning [14] - High-quality compounders dominate the portfolio, with Uber, Brookfield, Alphabet, Amazon, and Chipotle anchoring it with durable cash flows [14] - Patience is a defining feature of the strategy, as minimal turnover and unchanged core positions reflect confidence in long-term investment theses [15]

Core Viewpoint - Mary Ann Bartels, a respected investment strategist, forecasts significant growth for the S&P 500, predicting it could reach between 10,000 and 13,000 by 2030, representing a potential increase of 46% to 90% from its current levels [9][11]. Group 1: Forecasts and Predictions - Bartels has a strong track record, having accurately predicted market movements, including a nearly 25% gain in the S&P 500 driven by major tech stocks [5]. - Her recent prediction for a nearly 20% market surge in 2025 is also on track, with the S&P 500 already up more than 15% this year [6][7]. - The S&P 500 closed at 6,834.50 on December 19, 2025, providing a baseline for her future projections [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bartels emphasizes that while the S&P 500's growth trajectory is promising, the market will face challenges, predicting a "necessary correction" in 2026 after years of significant gains [12]. - Multiple Wall Street firms share optimistic views for the S&P 500, with targets ranging from 7,100 to 8,100 for the end of 2026, driven by strong earnings and AI advancements [14].

Core Insights - BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is positioned to be a significant player in the US financial landscape by 2025, having raised billions despite negative returns for investors [1] - The fund attracted $25.4 billion in new capital in 2025, surpassing traditional ETFs like Invesco QQQ Trust and SPDR Gold Trust, despite a year-to-date loss of 9.59% [2][4] - Bitcoin's price has decreased approximately 30% from its October 2025 peak of $126,173, currently trading around $88,000 [3] Fund Performance - IBIT is the only ETF on the 2025 Flow Leaderboard with negative returns, indicating a unique situation in the market [5] - The influx of capital during a market correction suggests a shift in investor behavior, with institutional investors opting to buy the dip rather than sell off during volatility [4] Market Dynamics - The significant capital inflows into IBIT validate the "financialization" of Bitcoin, indicating a transition from a speculative asset to a more mature macro commodity [6] - The trading behavior of Bitcoin is increasingly resembling that of gold, influenced by institutional demand and market microstructure [7]

Group 1 - Blue Owl Capital Inc. is noted for its disciplined investment approach, as highlighted by Jim Cramer, particularly in its decision to refuse a $10 billion deal for an Oracle data center in Michigan [1] - The company's refusal to engage in the deal is seen as a positive sign of rational decision-making in the face of balance sheet concerns [1] - Reports indicate that alternative financing sources are available, suggesting that Blue Owl's involvement was not essential for the Oracle project [1] Group 2 - Blue Owl Capital provides alternative asset management and private financing solutions, including direct lending, credit products, and real estate investments [2]

Core Viewpoint - Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP is investigating potential claims against Blue Owl Capital Inc. due to allegations of violations of federal securities laws, with a deadline for investors to seek lead plaintiff status by February 2, 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Allegations Against Blue Owl Capital - The complaint alleges that Blue Owl and its executives made false or misleading statements and failed to disclose significant issues, including pressure on its asset base from BDC redemptions [3]. - It is claimed that Blue Owl is facing undisclosed liquidity issues and may limit or halt redemptions of certain BDCs, which misled investors regarding the company's business and prospects [3]. - The Financial Times reported that Blue Owl has blocked redemptions in one of its private credit funds due to a merger, potentially leading to large losses for investors [4]. Group 2: Impact on Investors - Following the news of the merger, investors in Blue Owl Capital Corporation II will permanently lose the ability to redeem cash at the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV), instead trading shares for publicly traded Blue Owl shares, which are currently about 20% under NAV [5]. - On November 17, 2025, Blue Owl's stock price fell by $0.85, or 5.8%, closing at $13.77 per share, indicating a negative impact on investors [5]. Group 3: Legal Proceedings - The lead plaintiff in the class action will be the investor with the largest financial interest who can adequately represent the class, with options for other members to participate or remain absent [6]. - Faruqi & Faruqi encourages individuals with information regarding Blue Owl's conduct to come forward, including whistleblowers and former employees [7].

Core Insights - Vanguard is recognized as one of the largest and most reputable money managers globally, focusing on low-fee, broadly diversified fund offerings, making it suitable for long-term investors [1][2] Group 1: Vanguard ETFs Overview - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is the largest ETF globally, managing over $820 billion, and is considered a cornerstone holding for most portfolios due to its focus on leading U.S. stocks [4][5] - The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) extends beyond the S&P 500, investing in over 3,500 stocks, including mid and small-cap stocks, which historically offer greater return potential [6][7] - The Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) targets aggressive growth stocks, particularly those expected to benefit from innovations, such as advancements in AI [8][10] - The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) focuses on companies that have consistently raised dividends for at least 10 years, providing a stable foundation for long-term portfolios [12][13] - The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) includes thousands of investment-grade bonds, offering a yield of approximately 4.2%, which contributes to income and risk management in a long-term portfolio [14][15] Group 2: Performance and Strategy - The Vanguard Growth ETF has historically performed in the top quintile of Morningstar's Large Cap Growth category over multiple time frames, indicating strong past performance [11] - Investing in a diversified range of stocks, including mid and small caps, can help mitigate risks associated with market leadership shifts [7]

Company Overview - Lawrence Fuller is the Principal of Fuller Asset Management (FAM), a state-registered investment adviser, with 30 years of experience in managing portfolios for individual investors [1][3] - FAM manages the Focused Growth portfolio on Dub, a copy-trading platform approved by US securities regulators, allowing retail investors to automatically copy chosen managers' portfolios and trades [1][3] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy of FAM focuses on an all-weather approach designed to produce consistent risk-adjusted market returns [1] - The Portfolio Architect group, led by Fuller, emphasizes an overall economic and market outlook, providing portfolio construction guidance and access to various model portfolios [1] Services Offered - FAM offers features such as a daily brief summarizing current events, a week ahead newsletter, technical and fundamental reports, trade alerts, and 24/7 chat support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enabling Javascript and cookies in browsers to prevent access issues, particularly when ad-blockers are enabled [1] Group 1 - The article suggests that users may face restrictions if they have ad-blockers enabled, indicating a need for adjustments in browser settings to ensure smooth access [1]