黄金破 4000 之后怎么看？20251009 摘要 预计年内黄金价格走势仍然乐观，即使已经突破 4,000 美元每盎司后仍有上升 空间。当前全球经济需求周期下行和财政收敛路径曲折的宏观组合没有显著改 变，因此短期内金价回调压力较小。然而，需要关注降息周期末期可能带来的 当前黄金市场的宏观逻辑未变，发达经济体财政风险暴露及货币信用受 损担忧持续支撑金价，全球需求下行和财政收敛路径曲折强化了这一逻 辑。 预计年内黄金价格走势乐观，突破 4,000 美元/盎司后仍有上升空间，短 期回调压力较小，但需关注降息周期末期及复苏交易抬头带来的回调风 险。 2026 年一季度，美国经济数据将是观察重点，复苏交易或 AI 发展可能 对金价形成回调压力，市场主线选择将导致资金分流。 黄金定价机制中，ETF 市场需求、全球央行购金及期货热度是关键需求 因素，金融投资参与者行为对短期价格趋势影响显著。 2025 年金价创新高主要驱动因素是西方市场 ETF 资金流入强劲，而中 国和印度金饰消费下滑对价格影响较小。 实物黄金投资者提供底部支撑，ETF 市场和 COMEX 期货对短期金价走 势影响显著，COMEX 期货仓位显示交易情绪相 ...

随着国际金价走高，国内黄金板块大涨。 以5.10亿元竞得 新疆一处金矿普查探矿权 10月8日晚间，四川黄金发布公告称，8月13日，新疆维吾尔自治区自然资源厅委托新疆维吾尔自治区政务服务和公共资源交易中心发布了《2025年新疆博 乐市夏尔希里酒店地热普查等9个探矿权挂牌出让公告》。 9月30日，四川黄金以5.10亿元竞得新疆高昌区库格孜—觉北金矿普查探矿权。该勘查区处于中 国重要的金矿成矿带——中天山成矿带，矿体受北西—南东向的背斜和断层控制，勘查区金异常带长达数公里，与控矿构造的方向一致，成矿地质条件较 为优越，具有较大的找矿潜力。 四川黄金表示，此次竞买取得新疆高昌区库格孜—觉北金矿普查探矿权，符合公司主责主业定位和未来发展战略，有利于增加资源量，提升公司核心竞争 力。本次竞买的资金来源为自有资金或银行贷款。本次交易不构成关联交易，亦不构成重大资产重组。 四川黄金2025年半年度报告显示，公司业务主要围绕梭罗沟金矿矿山建设、开采、选矿及金精矿、合质金的销售展开。公司将采出的原生矿运至选厂，经 过浮选工艺得到产品金精矿；将采矿阶段随采出的氧化矿运至堆浸场，经过喷淋浸出工艺得到产品合质金。公司将金精矿和合质金销 ...

Recent buying of the precious metal has been fueled by investor anxiety about the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, economic uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. Spot gold prices, which were little changed at around $4,035 per ounce in recent trading, have surged 54% since the start of the year, with broader gains supported by central bank buying, a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and a range of geopolitical issues. Key Takeaways Gold (XAUUSD) has ...

贵金属市场未平仓合约总值基本持平，微升0.4%至3,130亿美元(截至10月3日)，惟各类交易者整体录得 69亿美元的合约净流出，其中黄金市场流出64亿美元，仅部分被钯金流入(2亿美元)所抵销。 小摩指，近周黄金价格持续攀升，再升3.4%至接近3,900美元/盎司(10月3日)的历史高位。过往美联储局 减息周期中，黄金普遍录得正回报，尤其近年表现更为强劲；相比之下，其他贵金属回报则较为参差。 通常在首次减息后2至3个月出现的调整，往往成为增持黄金的良机。策略师估计，季度名义黄金需求每 增加100亿美元，可推动价格按季上升约3%。因此，即使从规模达29万亿美元的美国国债市场轻微转仓 至黄金，亦足以推动金价突破每盎司5,000美元。 摩根大通发布研报称，截至上周五(10月3日)一周的全球商品期货未平仓合约总值，自8月以来首次回 落，按周下跌1.7%(减少284.9亿美元)，降至1.6万亿美元，主因原油及精炼石油产品价格按周急跌8%所 致，合约资金流出规模达136亿美元。而贵金属市场净持仓按周减少29亿美元，至1,110亿美元，基本金 属市场净持仓则增加22亿美元，至300亿美元。 ...

digital gold, regular gold. We're going to start right now with regular gold. And what this chart shows is a three-year price move of the Spider Gold ETF, which some investors use as a proxy or to get exposure.Take us through what these charts are showing you about the future trajectory. >> Sure. Well, Tom, thanks a lot for having me.Sure. Well, last time we were here talked about how there was potential for gold to break through this bullish pattern, which it did. And let me tell you, Tom, it's been textbo ...

美股三大指数集体收涨，英伟达再创新高。 当地时间周二(9月30日)，美国股市三大股指小幅收涨。值得注意的是，道琼斯工业指数已经实现月线五连涨。 个股方面，英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值突破4.5万亿美元。 其他市场方面，国际金价继续上行。当地时间周二，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中逼近3900美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 美股三大指数集体收涨英伟达创新高 当地时间周二(9月30日)，美国股市三大股指小幅收涨，其中道琼斯工业指数涨0.18%，报46397.89点，标准普尔500指数涨 0.41%，报6688.46点，纳斯达克指数涨0.3%，报22660.01点。整个9月份，道琼斯工业指数涨1.87%，实现月线五连涨；标准普尔 500指数9月上涨3.53%，同样实现月线五连涨；纳斯达克指数9月上涨5.61%，月线实现六连涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46397.89c | 81.82 | 0.18% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 22660.01c | 68.86 | 0.30 ...

每经AI快讯，9月30日，现货黄金回升至3810美元上方，跌幅收窄至0.54%，报3813.21美元/盎司。 ...

Hsueh 表示："这就解释了为什么我们不会将珠宝需求的下降视为对黄金价格不利的因素。相反，如果 珠宝需求有所增加，那很可能就会对金价产生不利影响，因为这很可能需要更低的黄金价格作为激励条 件。" 最后，如果ETF的增持确实对黄金的上涨起到了重要作用，那么也就可以推断出，如果这些资金流入停 止或出现逆转，那将会构成一种下行风险。Hsueh 补充道，通常情况下，当美国国债收益率下降时，投 资者会更倾向于增加ETF中的黄金持仓量。 德意志银行分析师Michael Hsueh说道："ETF需求如此强劲地重新回归市场，这表明存在两种针对黄金 的'积极买家'行为，一种来自中央银行，另一种来自ETF投资者。这有助于解释为何黄金的表现一直优 于预期。在我们看来，美联储的宽松倾向应会使 2026 年 ETF 持有量更有可能上升而非下降。" 自 2021 年以来，各大央行每年都在增持约 400 至 500 吨的黄金。 其他需求来源的作用则相对减弱。珠宝购买需求依然具有很强的弹性，价格上涨时需求会下降。硬币和 铸币的需求通常对价格不敏感，但影响力较小;而回收黄金供应则对价格敏感，因此是影响价格波动的 一个因素。 智通财经APP获 ...

Core Viewpoint - The advantages of gold as a credit asset are becoming increasingly prominent against the backdrop of excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce, raising concerns about its future trajectory [1] Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Monetary Attributes - Historically, gold has served as a crucial support for currency circulation, providing stability and credibility to the monetary system, but its monetary attributes are gradually weakening [4][2] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to a fiat currency system has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [2] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the liberation of gold prices from fixed exchange rates, leading to a floating exchange rate system and an era of credit currency [2] Group 2: Changes in Gold's Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold's investment demand has shown strong growth, increasing from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs transitioning from negative to positive contributions [4][6] - The demand for gold jewelry and technology applications has also been significant, with gold consumption in jewelry manufacturing decreasing from 2,247 tons in 2021 to 2,012 tons in 2024, while technological demand remains stable [6] - The supply of gold has not kept pace with demand, with total demand rising from 4,026 tons in 2021 to 4,606 tons in 2024, while gold mine production only increased from 3,573 tons to 3,673 tons during the same period [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with military conflicts leading to inflationary pressures that typically drive up gold prices [11] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices has been evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices rose by 23.9% during the same period [8][10] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been increasing their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The future trajectory of gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [20][21] - If geopolitical tensions ease and U.S. debt issues are managed, gold prices may stabilize or face downward pressure, as current prices are significantly above production costs [21] - Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts intensify and U.S. debt issues worsen, gold's safe-haven attributes may become more pronounced, leading to further price increases [21]

Core Insights - The current excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds is impacting the global financial landscape, highlighting the advantages of gold as a credit asset, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce [1] - The evolution of gold prices and its future trajectory are critical topics of discussion, as presented by Professor Sheng Songcheng at the "2025 Global Asset Management Center Evaluation Index Release and CLF50 Autumn Conference" [1] Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - Gold has historically been recognized for its unique attributes, including beauty, durability, and scarcity, which have established its significant value in the monetary system [4] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to fiat currency has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [5][7] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the shift to a floating exchange rate system, where gold prices are determined by market supply and demand [5] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Gold's monetary attributes are weakening due to three evolving characteristics: the expansion of global money supply, increasing demand in various industries, and enhanced liquidity as a financial asset through instruments like ETFs [7] - Global gold investment demand rose from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs showing a significant recovery in demand [7][8] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves growing from approximately 64 million ounces in 2022 to about 74 million ounces currently [10] Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with historical instances showing that military conflicts often lead to increased inflation and higher gold prices [11][15] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices is evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices increased by 23.9% during the same period [12][14] - The global low-interest-rate environment is shifting asset allocation towards gold, as traditional fixed-income assets become less attractive [16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios outlined: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [25] - The current U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to 124%, necessitating significant interest payments, which raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential impact on gold prices [22] - A recent survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a growing confidence in gold amid economic uncertainties [17]