Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dramatic market reversal on Wall Street following President Trump's announcement to pause military actions against Iran, highlighting the market's reaction to sentiment rather than factual developments [1][4]. Market Reaction - Initially, the market was poised for a downturn with oil prices rising and stock futures declining, but Trump's statement led to a significant market turnaround, with U.S. stock futures rising over 2.5% and Brent crude oil prices dropping from above $112 to below $100 per barrel [1][4]. - The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices recorded their largest single-day gains since early February, with the Dow up 1.4% and the S&P 500 up 1.1% [4]. Investor Sentiment - Investors appear to be trading based on the emotional and atmospheric implications of Trump's statements rather than on concrete realities, as indicated by the phrase "trading Trump" [5][6]. - The market's reaction is driven by a fear of missing out (FOMO), with traders eager to capitalize on any positive news, leading to potentially exaggerated responses [7]. Economic Implications - Analysts express concern that the ongoing conflict could lead to a significant economic downturn if not resolved quickly, with some suggesting that Trump's desire to end the conflict is a response to the potential economic fallout [7]. - The article notes that the market is not trading based on truth but rather on perceptions and sentiments, likening it to a beauty contest where the focus is on what others think rather than objective reality [6]. Skepticism Towards Trump's Statements - Despite the market's positive reaction, there is skepticism regarding the reliability of Trump's claims, as past statements have often been misleading or exaggerated [10]. - Analysts highlight that the current situation is complex and cannot be resolved unilaterally by Trump, as it requires cooperation from Iran to restore normal shipping through critical waterways [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to Trump's statement on the productive talks between the US and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and a short - term repair of the US stock market. However, the Iranian attitude remains tough, and the Middle East situation is still highly uncertain [1][2][13][18]. - The A - share market has deeply corrected due to the escalation of the US - Iran war. Although there are rumors of progress in the US - Iran negotiations, the sustainability of the market rebound remains to be seen [3][19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals. For example, steel prices are driven by cost but lack fundamental support; coal prices are expected to rise in the short - term; copper prices are expected to maintain a wide - range shock [4][5][25][27][46]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that the US - Iran talks were "productive", causing the global market risk appetite to rebound and the US dollar index to weaken. The US - Iran war may gradually come to an end. It is expected that the US dollar will be weak in the short - term [1][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Goolsbee believes that there may be a need to raise interest rates due to the inflation shock caused by the Middle East situation. Trump released a signal of easing, and the stock market rebounded in the short - term. However, the Iranian attitude is still tough, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares have deeply corrected, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800 points. The US - Iran war has hit the global stock market, and although there are rumors of progress in the negotiations, the sustainability of the A - share rebound remains to be seen. It is recommended to maintain a low - position to avoid risks [3][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1293 billion yuan. The war situation is complex, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Steel prices are oscillating strongly due to the rise in energy and coking coal prices, but the fundamental driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the increase is limited [4][24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on March 23. The coal price has entered a short - term upward channel due to the impact of the Middle East energy issue. It is expected that the coal price will continue to rise in early April, but the sustainability needs to be vigilant [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The Middle East conflict may cause iron ore miners to face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs. The iron ore price continues to oscillate, and the short - term trend is not clear. As the conflict continues, both supply and demand may be damaged [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased slightly. The rise in shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China, but there is no further upward driving force for soybean meal. It is necessary to pay attention to various uncertainties in the domestic and foreign markets [30]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In February 2026, the import volume of corn starch increased significantly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the temperature rises, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The short - term market has intensified long - short games, and the medium - to - long - term upward amplitude is restricted by demand and policies [31][32]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices fell sharply, mainly due to the liquidity crisis. There is support at the spot end, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium - term, and reduce positions and take profits for long platinum - palladium ratio positions in the short - term [33][34]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead price has support from the cost of recycled lead, but the terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [35][36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places decreased. The zinc price has support from fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [37][38]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a tight balance in March - April. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction [40][41][42]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Vatican launched an initiative to encourage investors to withdraw from the mining industry. The copper price is supported by the easing of the Middle East war, but there is a risk of the situation reversing. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [43][46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand of tin are in a weak pattern, and the price is expected to operate weakly due to the continuous suppression of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [47][48][49]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump postponed the military strike against Iran for five days, causing the oil price to drop significantly. The Middle East situation is still highly uncertain, and the oil price will maintain high volatility [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the high sensitivity of the market to the geopolitical situation [54][55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Trump's statement of forming agreement points with Iran has reduced the war premium of the fuel oil market. The short - term market uncertainty is still large [55][56][57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea price may be affected by coal prices in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by policies. It is recommended that market participants purchase based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [58][59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in the East China main port decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to rise, and it is recommended to be long on aromatics [60][61][62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. The supply and demand of caustic soda are improving marginally, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by the weak basis and high inventory [63][64][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the high - price resistance is obvious. The supply of PVC is expected to decrease, and the cost is rising. The PVC futures price is expected to be strong [66][67]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The last foreign - controlled terminal has withdrawn from the Chinese mainland market. The container freight rate is affected by the geopolitical situation and oil prices. It is recommended to treat the market with a strong - oscillation idea in the short - term and pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation and oil prices [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, providing support for the stock market from the molecular end. However, the situation between the US and Iran will suppress market risk appetite, while Chinese policies to cultivate the domestic market may form a certain degree of hedging. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and remain optimistic in the medium - term [2][17]. - The bond market is affected by inflation concerns and better - than - expected economic data, showing a downward trend in shock. Short - term short - selling may be more cost - effective than long - buying [3][20]. - Steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the upside space is limited due to weak terminal demand and uncertain infrastructure investment sustainability [4][24]. - The oil and fat market is strengthening. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 9800 - 10000 yuan, following crude oil fluctuations before the confirmation or refutation of Indonesia's B50 policy [5][31]. - The sugar market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to the sales pressure of sugar mills [36]. - The soybean meal market is expected to decline today following the CBOT soybean futures limit - down. Future attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, China's purchase of US soybeans, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [39]. - The corn market is in a multi - factor game in the short - term. In the medium - and long - term, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upside is restricted by demand recovery and policy regulation [42]. - Platinum and palladium are expected to have weak performance in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium - term [44]. - Lead prices may have limited downside space due to cost support, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [45]. - Zinc prices are expected to enter a shock adjustment period in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [47]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [51]. - Copper prices may bottom out in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread operation between domestic and foreign markets [55]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [59]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range [62]. - The risk of asphalt supply interruption is increasing, which strongly supports the market price [63]. - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the restart rhythm [66]. - Styrene supply is expected to continue to decline, and the styrene market will fluctuate strongly [69]. - The upper limit of urea 05 contract is restricted, and it is recommended that market participants replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [72]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the inflection point of energy prices in the medium - term [73]. - The glass market is expected to have large short - term fluctuations, but the rebound strength is expected to be weak [74]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that oil prices may be "well below" $80 per barrel in a few months. The gold market is under pressure due to the lack of direct upward momentum, and it is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Yellen said that the US默许部分船只 through the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil price has slightly declined. The US stock market has rebounded, but it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The consumer goods trade - in policy has driven sales of over 300 billion yuan. The Chinese economy had a good start in the first two months, providing support for the stock market. The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and remain optimistic in the medium - term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data from January to February exceeded expectations. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by inflation and economic data, and short - term short - selling may be more cost - effective [18][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's crude steel production from January to February decreased year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [21][24][25]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The international steam coal market is inactive. The domestic and foreign coal prices are decoupled. The domestic coal price may rise passively if the conflict continues until May - June [26][27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The fixed - asset investment from January to February increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is highly uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering levying a "windfall tax" on commodities. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9800 - 10000 yuan, following crude oil fluctuations [29][30][31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory and India's sugar production data are released. The sugar market is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [32][35][36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of March and the US soybean crushing data are released. The soybean meal market is expected to decline today, and future attention should be paid to relevant factors [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Brazil's corn production and the EU's corn import data are released. The corn market is in a multi - factor game in the short - term and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium - and long - term [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices declined. They are expected to have weak performance in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium - term [43][44]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead inventory increased. The lead price may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc inventory increased. The zinc price is expected to enter a shock adjustment period in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on the callback in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A new project of advanced battery materials is signed. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [48][50][51]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are labor strikes and production declines in the copper industry. The copper price may bottom out in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive spread operation between domestic and foreign markets [52][54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The semiconductor industry has a new wave of price increases. The tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][59]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - India is negotiating to ensure the passage of LPG transport ships. The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range [60][61][62]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory decreased. The risk of asphalt supply interruption is increasing, which strongly supports the market price [62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - An Iranian methanol plant has restarted. Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory decreased. The styrene supply is expected to continue to decline, and the styrene market will fluctuate strongly [66][67][69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The upper limit of urea 05 contract is restricted, and it is recommended to replenish inventory based on rigid demand [70][71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the inflection point of energy prices in the medium - term [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price was flat. The glass market is expected to have large short - term fluctuations, but the rebound strength is expected to be weak [74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, which has led to significant disruptions in oil supply and increased market volatility [1][3][4] - WTI crude oil prices surged approximately 19% last week, reaching around $108 per barrel, following a record increase of 36% in the previous week, indicating a volatile oil market influenced by geopolitical events [3] - The U.S. stock index futures fell by 1.5% on Monday, reflecting investor concerns over rising oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Australian 3-year government bond yield soared to its highest level since July 2011 due to these pressures [3] Group 2 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to nearly 30, indicating heightened market volatility and investor anxiety, with spot prices exceeding their three-month futures prices, marking the largest price inversion in nearly a year [4] - Recent U.S. labor market data showed a decrease of 92,000 non-farm jobs last month, the largest drop since the pandemic began, contributing to rising unemployment rates at 4.4%, which may influence monetary policy decisions [4] - The ongoing crisis has created a dilemma for investors, balancing the risks of high oil prices leading to renewed inflation against signs of a cooling U.S. labor market that may necessitate monetary easing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in precious metals prices, particularly gold and silver, amidst rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and forecasts for future gold prices by major financial institutions [1][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - As of March 9, spot gold prices fell below $5,100, down 2.1%, while spot silver dropped 3.88% to $81.202 per ounce [1][2]. - London gold was priced at $5,063.410, reflecting a decrease of $108.388 or 2.10%, while COMEX gold saw a decline of $48.2 or 0.93% to $5,110.5 [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% during this period [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The article highlights escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the election of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader, and threats from U.S. President Trump regarding the stability of this leadership [5][6]. - The Israeli Defense Forces have declared intentions to target the new Iranian leadership, while Iran has asserted its military capability to sustain high-intensity conflict for at least six months [5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - JPMorgan has raised its long-term gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce, predicting that gold prices could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5]. - Bank of America analysts reiterated a target price of $6,000 per ounce for gold over the next 12 months, acknowledging potential short-term resistance as investors adjust to higher prices [5].

Group 1 - Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced declines, with Bitcoin down 0.8% to $68,279 and Ethereum down 0.7% to $1,984, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in the market [1] - U.S. stock index futures are also lower due to ongoing concerns about potential disruptions from artificial intelligence (AI), impacting investor preferences for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1] - Investors are awaiting key economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which could influence market stability and investment flows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has risen to a near one-week high against a basket of currencies, supported by safe-haven flows, as US traders return from the Presidents' Day holiday [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - US stock index futures have turned lower due to concerns about the potentially disruptive impact of AI on various industries, which has affected risk appetite [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and key economic data releases, including fourth-quarter GDP growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for clues regarding the timing of the next interest rate cut [1] Group 2: Currency Movements - The DXY dollar index reached a high of 97.247 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock index futures remained mostly flat during the Asian session on Tuesday after a challenging week for tech stocks, with concerns about the potential disruption from AI continuing to weigh heavily on the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dow Jones futures rose approximately 80 points, a gain of 0.2% [1] - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.2% [1] - The Dow Jones index dropped 1.2% for its worst weekly performance since November of the previous year [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite index plummeted by 2.1%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since 2002 [1] Group 2: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold and silver futures experienced a decline on Monday, while Bitcoin remained below the $70,000 level [1] - Crude oil futures rose by over 1% due to investor anxiety regarding potential U.S. military action against Iran [1] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday [1] - A key inflation metric, the core personal consumption expenditures index, is scheduled for release on Friday [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Short - term, pay attention to the risk of decline, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11][12] - **US Dollar**: Short - term shock [14][15] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Expected to operate in a shock - upward manner, and maintain a bullish view [17][18] - **Stock Index Futures**: Continue to hold the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient. Focus on state reserve and customs policies. Without abnormal production cuts in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [25] - **Steam Coal**: The coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy side will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to maintain a shock market with certain support [29] - **Copper**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - **Zinc**: Unilaterally, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. For arbitrage, the positive spread should turn to waiting and see, and the internal - external spread should be treated with an internal - external reverse spread strategy [34] - **Lead**: Unilaterally and for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [38] - **Nickel**: Expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will still be a large upside space [41] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [43][44] - **Tin**: The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term futures price. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the ore supply will persist. Be vigilant about the price decline risk after the capital boom fades [48][49] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short - term [50][51] - **Asphalt**: The price will fluctuate in the short - term [52][53] - **Urea**: Do not chase the rise for now. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the start time and rhythm of spring plowing fertilizer demand and next year's export policy fluctuations. Try to go long at low prices when the relative valuation provides a certain safety margin [55] - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [57][58] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial instruments and commodities, including macro - strategy (such as foreign exchange futures, stock index futures, gold), agricultural products (soybean meal), black metals (steam coal, iron ore), non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, etc.), and energy chemicals (crude oil, asphalt, etc.). It points out the influencing factors of each market, such as geopolitical events, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [11][14][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - CME will raise the performance margin of multiple metal futures such as gold, silver, and lithium. Gold and silver prices dropped sharply. The short - squeeze trading in silver has temporarily ended. With the poor market liquidity around the holiday and the increase in margin, the selling pressure has intensified. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday. After the holiday, pay attention to the potential decline risk caused by the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight in mid - January [11] 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's peace plan has encountered new obstacles. Russia said that Ukraine attacked Putin's residence, causing the cease - fire plan to stall. The US - Russia situation has new variables, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short - term [14][15] 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US existing - home sales in November reached a new high since the beginning of 2023. Trump is considering suing Powell. The mortgage rate has slightly decreased, leading to a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. However, the future interest - rate cut path is still uncertain. The US stock index futures are expected to operate in a shock - upward manner [16][17][18] 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Index has recorded nine consecutive positive days with heavy trading volume. The A - share market has large price fluctuations, with the commercial space concept rising significantly and the ChiNext Index falling. The expansion of liquidity is the main driving force for the recent market. It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and allocate the stock indexes evenly [19][20] 3.1.5 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The decline in the bond market is mainly due to institutional behavior. It is necessary to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [21][23] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The port soybean inventory has decreased, while the oil - mill soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The market is concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans. The South American production outlook is optimistic. As long as there is no abnormal production cut in South America, the supply - demand situation does not support a significant upward movement of the May contract [24][25] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on December 29. The coal price accelerated its decline this week. Considering the warm winter in December and January, the coal price is expected to continue to weaken in January. Later, focus on whether the policy will restrict supply when the coal price hits the previous low again [26][28] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Champion Iron plans to acquire Rana Gruber. The iron - ore price has strong support. The decline risk of molten iron has slowed down, and the downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment may increase slightly. However, the market's expectation for the post - holiday demand is still cautious, and the iron - ore price is expected to maintain a shock market [29] 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - end predicts the average copper price in 2026 to be $11,400/ton. The Khoemacau copper mine expansion project has been approved. The copper price has significantly corrected. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, patiently wait for opportunities to go long at low prices. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][32] 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The import and export tariffs of zinc products in 2026 remain unchanged. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has continued to decline. The zinc price mainly fluctuates with the macro situation. In the medium - term, it is still in an upward - prone state. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [33][34] 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Tianneng and Chaowei have launched sodium - ion batteries. The import tariffs of lead - acid batteries in some countries will be reduced in 2026. The lead price has limited upward space. It is advisable to adopt a shock - trading strategy [35][36][37] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The social inventory of refined nickel remains high, and the market trading has become lighter. The RKAB quota and the pricing of cobalt at the mine end may support the nickel price. However, it is expected to return to a shock trend [39][40][41] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - reduction maintenance on some lithium - iron - phosphate production lines. The lithium - carbonate price may have short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [42][43][44] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The export tax rates of tin - related products will be adjusted in 2026. The inventory of tin has increased. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation may put pressure on the short - term price, and the long - term supply uncertainty persists [45][46][48] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude - oil inventory has slightly increased. The oil price has rebounded due to the geopolitical conflict. The supply is relatively abundant, and the global inventory pressure is large in the off - peak demand season [50][51] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social warehouses has decreased. In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to operate stably [52][53] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The urea price has fluctuated strongly recently. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand is mainly from the trading link. Do not chase the rise for now, and pay attention to relevant factors after the Spring Festival [54][55] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports has increased. The styrene price has been running strongly recently. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, maintain a bullish view [56][57][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].