日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普和平计划遇阻，常州锂源磷酸铁锂部 分产线减产检修 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普的和平计划遭遇新阻碍 普京称将改变谈判立场 俄罗斯表示乌克兰袭击普京住所，导致停火计划遇阻。俄乌冲 突出现新变数，美元短期震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 沪指放量录得九连阳 综 A 股继续放量，但盘面涨跌分化较大，商业航天等概念涨幅较大， 而创业板则跌幅明显。我们认为流动性扩张过程是近期行情的 主要推动力，短期波动不影响躁动底色。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 上调黄金白银保证金 报 黄金白银大跌，白银逼仓交易暂时告一段落，多头获利了结， 空头被迫平仓，叠加假期前后市场流动性不佳波动放大，交易 所上调保证金也加剧了抛压。国内元旦假期将至也要减仓。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂豆粕库存继续上升 市场继续关注我国采购美豆情况，目前南美产区天气良好、产 量前景乐观。上周油厂豆粕库存再度上升，长时间为历史同期 最高。 黑色金属（铁矿石） Champion Iron 拟收购 Rana Gruber 铁水基本逐步持平叠加钢厂原料库存不高，下游补库情绪或略 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].

美国股指期货在圣诞假期前夕徘徊于历史高位附近，股市季节性走强的时期即将开始。黄金价格攀升至 每盎司4500美元以上。 美国股指期货在圣诞假期前夕徘徊于历史高位附近，股市季节性走强的时期即将开始。黄金价格攀升至 每盎司4500美元以上。 美国三大股指期货基本持平。此前科技股推动标普500指数创下历史新高。假期交易时间缩短，预计周 三交投清淡。随着圣诞行情拉开序幕，交易员们对年底收官持乐观态度，可能使美国基准股指今年约 17%的涨幅进一步扩大。 美国经济持续超预期表现令投资者乐观，支撑了来年的盈利前景。与此同时，货币市场仍预期美联储 2026年至少降息两次，这一背景可能提振更广泛的股票板块，尽管对领涨科技股估值的担忧依然存在。 Swissquote分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya写道："近期行情表明圣诞老人或许仍会如约而至。但现实可能很快 会占据上风，科技市场部分板块看上去稍显不稳，明年财报季的焦点将不再是亮眼的数字，而是关注收 入的实际来源。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 美国三大股指期货基本持平。此前科技股推动标普500指数创下历史新高。假期交易时间缩短，预计周 三交投清淡。随着圣诞行情拉 ...

责任编辑：王永生 美国股指期货上涨，本周股市交易时间将因假期而缩短，投资者仍寄望于"圣诞老人行情"（Santa Claus rally）的到来。道琼斯指数期货上涨约80点，涨幅0.2%。标普500指数期货和纳斯达克100指数期货亦上 涨。西得克萨斯州原油期货上涨，此前美国表示查扣了又一艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮，并正在追查另一 艘。黄金期货下滑，白银期货上涨。 "圣诞老人行情"指的是一种季节性模式，即历史上股市往往会在12月的最后五个交易日和次年1月的头 两个交易日期间上涨，从而为新的一年提供（或不提供）动能。 虽然标普500指数12月迄今仍为下跌， 但对年底前出现反弹的希望尚未破灭，而且上周五标普500指数的上涨可能增强了这一希望。 美国股指期货上涨，本周股市交易时间将因假期而缩短，投资者仍寄望于"圣诞老人行情"（Santa Claus rally）的到来。道琼斯指数期货上涨约80点，涨幅0.2%。标普500指数期货和纳斯达克100指数期货亦上 涨。西得克萨斯州原油期货上涨，此前美国表示查扣了又一艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮，并正在追查另一 艘。黄金期货下滑，白银期货上涨。 "圣诞老人行情"指的是一种季节性模式，即历 ...

美国股指期货下跌，投资者等待美联储政策决议，科技权重股回吐盘前涨幅。 美国股指期货下跌，投资者等待美联储政策决议，科技权重股回吐盘前涨幅。 纳斯达克100指数期货一度下跌0.3%，标普500指数期货跌0.2%。 英伟达股价盘前下跌0.2%，此前曾上涨约0.4%。 谷歌和微软股价盘前下跌约0.2%，苹果股价下跌0.3%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 纳斯达克100指数期货一度下跌0.3%，标普500指数期货跌0.2%。 英伟达股价盘前下跌0.2%，此前曾上涨约0.4%。 谷歌和微软股价盘前下跌约0.2%，苹果股价下跌0.3%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

11月25日，央视新闻报道称，乌克兰已原则同意美国提出的和平协议，虽然还有一些细节条款需要进一 步商讨。这一进展引起了广泛关注，特别是国际油价也因此大幅下跌。接下来，我们来看看这份协议是 如何从28条缩减到19条的。最初，美国媒体在11月20日曝出了特朗普政府提出的28点计划，其中包括要 求俄罗斯与乌克兰、欧洲签署互不侵犯协议，乌克兰不能加入北约等内容。然而，乌克兰方面对28点计 划中的一些条款并不接受，欧洲方面也认为该计划过于偏向俄罗斯。因此，大家普遍认为，达成协议将 非常困难。 欧洲方面，英国、法国、德国提出了修订版计划。他们认为领土问题应该等战后再协商，并希望乌克兰 能得到类似北约第五条的安全保障，同时反对美国处置俄罗斯冻结资产的方案。德国总理默茨预判，11 月27日前很难达成最终协议，最多只能取得小规模的进展。显然，欧洲国家有自己的顾虑，毕竟俄乌冲 突离欧洲非常近，他们不希望最终得到一个不符合自己利益的结果。 但到了11月23日，美乌双方代表团在瑞士日内瓦展开了谈判。谈判后，28条计划被压缩为19条。关键的 争议问题，如领土问题和乌克兰的安全保障等，依然没有解决，留待美乌两国总统最后决定。原本大家 以 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short-term, the price is expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility [11][12] - US Dollar Index: The dollar is expected to remain range-bound in the short term [15][16] - US Stock Index Futures: The market is expected to experience greater short-term volatility but should be treated with a generally bullish outlook [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions across various stock indices [20][22] - Power Coal: The overall coal price is expected to remain high and oscillate, with a seasonal decline from December to January [23] - Iron Ore: By the end of the year, molten iron output is expected to be around 2.31 million tons, and port inventories are expected to increase by approximately 10 million tons. The downward trend may not be smooth [24] - Coking Coal/Coke: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate as downstream restocking slows, and the spot market remains weak [25][26] - Live Pigs: Near-term contracts are recommended for shorting on rebounds, while long-term contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [27] - Rebar/Hot-Rolled Coils: Steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly higher in the short term but should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [28][29] - Corn Starch: It is recommended to operate around the current processing fee in North China (310 yuan/ton) [30][31] - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil: Palm oil lacks a continuous upward driver. As it enters the production reduction season, its downside support is expected to gradually strengthen [33][34] - Corn: It is not recommended to short the 01 contract. Consider shorting the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [34][35] - Polysilicon: Spot prices are expected to remain flat month-on-month. Short-term volatility is expected to increase, so investors are advised to operate with caution [37][38] - Industrial Silicon: The short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range [39][40] - Lead: Consider long positions on dips for the medium term. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [41][42] - Zinc: Observe opportunities to buy on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [43][44] - Copper: The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [46][47] - Nickel: Lightly consider long positions on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is still needed [48][49] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, consider shorting on rallies. In the medium term, consider long positions after the risk of the off - season decline is released [50][51] - Tin: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing high prices [52][53] - Crude Oil: The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [56][57] - Carbon Emissions: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [58][59] - Methanol: It is not recommended to short. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for single - sided trading and consider positive calendar spreads [60][63] - Container Freight Rates: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. Consider lightly going long on the 02 contract [64][65] Core Views - Trump plans to announce the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026, strongly hinting at Kevin Hassett. This has affected market expectations for future monetary policy and asset prices [3][11][15] - Geopolitical events such as Trump's potential military action against drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict have influenced market risk appetite and the performance of various assets [2][14][15] - In the commodity market, supply and demand dynamics, production, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices. For example, the supply of some metals and energy products has changed, and the demand for agricultural products has also shown different trends [4][5][23] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee in early 2026. Gold prices have fallen from their highs and are consolidating. The expected loose monetary policy supports gold, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations add market uncertainty [11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may expand the entry ban to about 30 countries and is likely to launch a ground attack on drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela. The US dollar index is expected to remain range - bound [13][14][15] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's indication of the Fed Chair nominee has increased market expectations for loose liquidity, boosting the technology sector and the overall index, but most sectors still declined [17][18] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The OECD predicts global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% for this year and next year. A - shares are adjusting with reduced trading volume in anticipation of policy changes [20][21] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Power Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal prices are weak. After the end of restocking, coal prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with a seasonal decline from December to January [23] 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project has been successfully sent. Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weakening fundamentals but a not - so - smooth downward trend [24] 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coking coal prices in the Changzhi market are weak. After the first round of coke price cuts, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25][26] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market shows a pattern of "stable futures, weak spot." Near - term contracts are under pressure, while long - term contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [26][27] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coils) - November's heavy - truck sales increased nearly 50% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly higher, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upside [28][29] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are relatively stable. The price difference between cassava starch and corn starch has widened, and the supply pressure of corn starch is expected to remain low [30] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The supply pressure of oils has slightly eased, and palm oil lacks a continuous upward driver [32][33][34] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn spot prices are rising. The 01 contract is not recommended for shorting, while the 03 contract can be considered for shorting on rallies [34][35] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A new type of high - efficiency TOPCon battery has been launched. The polysilicon market is facing supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to remain flat with increased short - term volatility [36][37][38] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon has increased, and orders are stable. The industrial silicon market is difficult to destock, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [39][40] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is stable, and the domestic lead market is oscillating. The supply may tighten, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [41][42] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is oscillating widely. The domestic zinc market has a reduced supply and weak demand. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold long positions in the calendar spread [43][44] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A new copper smelter is expected to be put into operation, and the copper powder industry is in a boom cycle. Copper prices are affected by macro - expectations and are expected to oscillate [45][46][47] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel inventories have increased. The supply - demand surplus has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [48][49] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Kodal has shipped the first batch of lithium spodumene concentrate to China. The supply may increase after the resumption of production, and the demand in the off - season is weakening [50][51] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - Storage chip prices are rising. Tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [52][53] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories have increased. Oil prices are affected by the Russia - Ukraine situation and supply concerns and are expected to remain range - bound [54][56][57] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating. The impact of the quota policy may be more emotional than substantial [58][59] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The discount on Iranian imported methanol has decreased. The short - term futures price is difficult to fall, and positive calendar spreads can be considered [60][61][63] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The port throughput has increased. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and the 02 contract can be considered for long positions [64][65]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an unexpected increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 50,000 jobs, marking the best performance since June of this year [3] - Despite the positive job growth, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021 [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions may be influenced by this data, but the importance of the report could be overstated due to prior expectations set by Fed officials [4] Employment Data Summary - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations [3] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August [3] - Revisions to previous months showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs combined for July and August [3] Wage Growth Summary - Average hourly wages increased by 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.7% [3] - Month-over-month wage growth was 0.2%, below expectations and a decrease from the previous month's 0.3% [3] Market Reaction Summary - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. stock index futures rose, and U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating market optimism regarding the Fed's potential interest rate decisions [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is approximately 42% according to FedWatch [4] Future Implications Summary - The cancellation of the October employment report, which will be merged into the November report, means the September data will be the last complete employment report before the December Fed meeting [4] - The lack of new data before the meeting suggests that a rate cut in December is unlikely [4] Technical Analysis Summary - Technical indicators suggest a potential downward trend for gold prices, with a possibility of breaking below the $3,886 level [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market turmoil, highlighting the significant drop in major indices and cryptocurrencies, indicating a familiar yet unique crisis scenario [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics beyond surface-level price movements, suggesting that true investment opportunities lie in comprehending institutional behaviors [4][6] - The concept of "震仓" (shakeout) is introduced, illustrating how large funds manipulate stock prices to induce panic selling and acquire shares at lower prices [6][12] Group 2 - The article presents a quantitative perspective on institutional trading behaviors, noting that a well-developed quantitative system can reveal underlying market patterns and signals [7][10] - It highlights the correlation between the frequency of shakeouts and a stock's potential, suggesting that more shakeouts indicate stronger institutional interest and capability [12][16] - The piece concludes by asserting that while macroeconomic events serve as a backdrop, the real narrative is driven by institutional actions, with quantitative data providing the clearest insights into market sentiment [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial data in October was mostly below expectations, with the household sector deleveraging again and the M1 growth rate turning downward. However, the bond market had fully anticipated this, and it remained in a volatile range [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials made hawkish statements, leading to a liquidity crunch in the market, a significant decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - In the commodity market, different products showed various trends. For example, the strong reality and weak expectations coexisted in the lithium carbonate market, and the methanol market had a reduced probability of extreme market conditions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Beth Hammack, emphasized high inflation and the need to maintain restrictive policies. This led to a liquidity crunch, a decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials were more cautious about future interest rate cuts due to the non - release of economic data. Their overall hawkish statements increased the yield of US Treasury bonds, reduced market risk appetite, and led to greater long - short games in technology stocks, dragging down the index performance [16]. - Investment advice: The US stocks are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and a mostly bullish approach should be maintained [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, M2 increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the A - share market was booming, but the poor financial data in October and the real - estate adjustment might limit the stock market's rebound space [18][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in October was weak, which was beneficial to the bond market. However, the bond market had already anticipated this, and it remained in a narrow - range volatile state. The stock - bond seesaw effect was present, but the stock market was unlikely to drive the bond market to fall continuously [22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOAA reported that La Nina might last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations, and CONAB predicted record - high soybean production and exports in Brazil's 25/26 season [24][26]. - Investment advice: Closely monitor the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, especially the adjustments to US soybean yield and exports [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil replanting target for small farmers was unlikely to be achieved. Indonesia will start B50 road tests in early December and plans to implement the B50 policy in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports [27][28]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy will support market sentiment in the short term, but the high inventory will limit the upside of the 01 contract. Consider long positions in the 05 contract [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The CAI lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 25/26 season. The international cotton market was weak, and the market had a bearish expectation for the upcoming USDA report [30][32]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term (13300 - 13800). Wait for a pull - back to go long in the long term [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in Xinjiang decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell, and the supply was increasing while the demand was weak [35][36]. - Investment advice: Wait and see until the harvest is completed, and focus on the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Muyuan released 64.2 million shares from pledge. The inventory accumulation continued, but whether it would lead to a weak peak season was uncertain. The price might stabilize and rebound with the entry of second - fattening pigs, but the price decline pressure in the fourth quarter was still large [37]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts may strengthen with the increase in curing demand. Sell on rallies for the 1 and 3 contracts and consider long positions in the far - term contracts on dips [38]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The spot market of imported Australian steam coal was stable. The port coal price was firm, but the pit - mouth price decreased. The 2026 long - term contract price is expected to be 675 yuan, and the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but face resistance at 900 yuan [39]. - Investment advice: The port price is expected to be stable at a high level, and the price may fluctuate around 800 yuan. Monitor the long - term contract negotiation in December and temperature changes [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Usiminas' iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. The fundamentals were weak, with high hot - rolled coil inventory and weak year - end orders. The steel mills' demand for raw materials was under pressure [40]. - Investment advice: Given the weak fundamentals, the raw material side is still under pressure, but the rate of decline is slow [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese alloy and non - alloy hot - rolled steel plates. The steel price rebounded slightly, but the overall demand was average, and the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limited the price rebound [41][45]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short term [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products increased slightly. The starch price followed the raw material price, and the futures price spread between rice and starch strengthened slightly [47][49]. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price spread has recovered to some extent. Expect short - term fluctuations and consider band trading [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of processing enterprises decreased. The spot and futures prices were strong, but there might be selling pressure later. The 07 and 09 contracts are expected to be bullish in the long term [49][50]. - Investment advice: There is uncertainty in the new - season supply - demand. The spot and futures prices may fall later. Wait for a pull - back to go long in the 07 and 09 contracts [50]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the cash - to - three - month spread widened. The SHFE lead price fluctuated. The delivery volume will be reflected in the warehouse receipts, and the deep - decline possibility is low before the warehouse receipt risk is resolved [52]. - Investment advice: For the industry, consider short - selling at high levels. Observe the virtual - to - real ratio of the 12 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, wait and see. Consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. The short - term price fluctuation of SHFE zinc followed the macro trend, and the LME inventory change should be monitored [56]. - Investment advice: For the short - term, observe if the short - selling trend is established and consider short - selling at high levels. Consider positive arbitrage in the medium - term. Be cautious with short - term foreign - domestic reverse arbitrage [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The raw material price was expected to be stable and strong, and the refined nickel inventory accumulation slowed down [57]. - Investment advice: The market has a consistent expectation of nickel oversupply. Wait and see in the short term and consider long positions after the inventory accumulation inflection point [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto shelved the Jadar lithium project in Serbia. The strong reality and weak expectations coexisted. The inventory decline accelerated in the short term, but the supply may increase in the future [59][60]. - Investment advice: Expect a strong and volatile market in the short term and consider range trading. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the medium - term when the demand weakens and the project restart progress is clear [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price decreased slightly, and the trading volume remained high. The rigid demand during the compliance peak supported the carbon price, but the overall supply - demand structure was loose [62]. - Investment advice: The CEA has strong short - term support [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization decreased slightly this week. The probability of extreme market conditions for the 01 contract decreased significantly [64]. - Investment advice: Holders of short positions can take profits at around 2100 yuan/ton. If the price rebounds without a fundamental reversal, short positions can be re - established [6]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The supply of caustic soda increased, and the demand was stable. The low - concentration caustic soda price was stable, and the high - concentration caustic soda price increased slightly [66]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of caustic soda have little change, with overall supply - demand being relatively loose. Expect short - term fluctuations [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price weakened slightly. The futures price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited positive effects [69][70]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for near - term contracts. Consider long - term layout for far - term contracts after a significant price decline [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The futures price of pulp rose, and the market focused on the reduction of low - price warehouse receipts after December [72]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures are relatively strong in the near term. Monitor the warehouse receipt registration. If a large number of warehouse receipts are registered, the upward risk of the futures price will increase [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production and capacity utilization increased this week. The price of styrene rebounded, mainly due to the concentrated short - covering of crowded short positions [74][75]. - Investment advice: Monitor whether short positions will take profits in advance. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturer's inventory changed little this week. The futures price rebounded due to cost increases. The near - term contracts are relatively strong, but the far - term contracts may be under pressure with new capacity coming online [77]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts have some support, and the downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity release. Adopt a bearish approach in the medium - term [78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturer's inventory changed little this week, with regional differences. The futures price rebounded due to the strength of soda ash [79]. - Investment advice: The market has intense long - short games and large price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Port of Long Beach will develop a new container terminal. The focus of the European line is on the implementation of the December price increase and the adjustment at the EC2502 delivery date [80]. - Investment advice: The market fluctuates greatly. Pay attention to risk management and consider long positions on dips for the 02 contract [80].