美国9月非农数据姗姗来迟，终于在11月20日公布。数据显示，非农数据很好，新增非农就业人口11.9万人，为今年6月以来最佳 表现，但市场反应较为平淡，黄金等各种资产价格走势也较为克制。整体来看这份就业数据既重要，又不那么重要。 就业数据有升有降 根据美国劳工统计局发布的数据，9月非农就业人数意外激增11.9万人，远超市场预期的5万人。然而，失业率却出现反弹，从8 月的4.3%上升至4.4%，创下2021年以来的新高。此外，7月和8月的非农就业数据也进行了同步下修，7月新增就业人数下调7000 人至7.2万人，8月则下调2.6万人至-0.4万人。修正后，7月和8月新增就业人数合计较修正前减少3.3万人。 工资增速方面同样呈现波动，9月平均每小时工资同比增长3.8%，略高于预期的3.7%；但环比增长0.2%，低于预期，且涨幅较前 月的0.3%有所收窄。总体来看，这份就业数据表现尚可。数据发布后，美联储官员古尔斯比表示，9月就业数据反映出就业市场 稳定且略有降温，失业救济申请数据也未显示就业市场迅速恶化。作为首位对非农数据发表看法的美联储官员，其言论带有预 期管理的意味。 美国劳工统计局已宣布取消原定于12月5日发 ...

引子 11月18日那天，我盯着屏幕上的数字跳动着，日经225指数像断了线的风筝一样下坠。手机不断弹出警报： 比特币跌破9万美元、以太坊失守3000美元、美国股指期货全线飘绿。作为在量化领域摸爬滚打十年的"数据 猎人"，这种场景既熟悉又陌生。熟悉的是市场总在重复相似的剧本，陌生的是每次危机都穿着不同的戏服 登场。 这张日本国债收益率走势图让我想起2013年的"削减恐慌"，当时伯南克一句话就让全球市场人仰马翻。如今 日本10年期国债收益率飙升至1.75%，这个对其他国家微不足道的数字，在日本超宽松政策背景下无异于金 融核爆。但真正让我在意的不是这些宏观叙事，而是藏在数据背后的机构行为密码。 一、看得见的危机与看不见的机会 当新闻铺天盖地报道"全球双杀"时，我的量化系统正在捕捉更微妙的信号。美联储鹰派转向和日本国债风暴 固然重要，但对普通投资者而言，更重要的是理解：牛市的机会是看得懂、抓得住的。 记得2008年金融危机时，我刚开始接触量化交易。当时市场上充斥着各种"末日理论"，但数据却告诉我另一 个故事——某些板块的机构资金正在悄然布局。这让我明白一个道理：行情好的时候，多数人只关心涨跌， 却忽略了真正的机会是自己 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial data in October was mostly below expectations, with the household sector deleveraging again and the M1 growth rate turning downward. However, the bond market had fully anticipated this, and it remained in a volatile range [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials made hawkish statements, leading to a liquidity crunch in the market, a significant decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - In the commodity market, different products showed various trends. For example, the strong reality and weak expectations coexisted in the lithium carbonate market, and the methanol market had a reduced probability of extreme market conditions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Beth Hammack, emphasized high inflation and the need to maintain restrictive policies. This led to a liquidity crunch, a decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials were more cautious about future interest rate cuts due to the non - release of economic data. Their overall hawkish statements increased the yield of US Treasury bonds, reduced market risk appetite, and led to greater long - short games in technology stocks, dragging down the index performance [16]. - Investment advice: The US stocks are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and a mostly bullish approach should be maintained [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, M2 increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the A - share market was booming, but the poor financial data in October and the real - estate adjustment might limit the stock market's rebound space [18][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in October was weak, which was beneficial to the bond market. However, the bond market had already anticipated this, and it remained in a narrow - range volatile state. The stock - bond seesaw effect was present, but the stock market was unlikely to drive the bond market to fall continuously [22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOAA reported that La Nina might last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations, and CONAB predicted record - high soybean production and exports in Brazil's 25/26 season [24][26]. - Investment advice: Closely monitor the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, especially the adjustments to US soybean yield and exports [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil replanting target for small farmers was unlikely to be achieved. Indonesia will start B50 road tests in early December and plans to implement the B50 policy in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports [27][28]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy will support market sentiment in the short term, but the high inventory will limit the upside of the 01 contract. Consider long positions in the 05 contract [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The CAI lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 25/26 season. The international cotton market was weak, and the market had a bearish expectation for the upcoming USDA report [30][32]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term (13300 - 13800). Wait for a pull - back to go long in the long term [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in Xinjiang decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell, and the supply was increasing while the demand was weak [35][36]. - Investment advice: Wait and see until the harvest is completed, and focus on the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Muyuan released 64.2 million shares from pledge. The inventory accumulation continued, but whether it would lead to a weak peak season was uncertain. The price might stabilize and rebound with the entry of second - fattening pigs, but the price decline pressure in the fourth quarter was still large [37]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts may strengthen with the increase in curing demand. Sell on rallies for the 1 and 3 contracts and consider long positions in the far - term contracts on dips [38]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The spot market of imported Australian steam coal was stable. The port coal price was firm, but the pit - mouth price decreased. The 2026 long - term contract price is expected to be 675 yuan, and the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but face resistance at 900 yuan [39]. - Investment advice: The port price is expected to be stable at a high level, and the price may fluctuate around 800 yuan. Monitor the long - term contract negotiation in December and temperature changes [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Usiminas' iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. The fundamentals were weak, with high hot - rolled coil inventory and weak year - end orders. The steel mills' demand for raw materials was under pressure [40]. - Investment advice: Given the weak fundamentals, the raw material side is still under pressure, but the rate of decline is slow [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese alloy and non - alloy hot - rolled steel plates. The steel price rebounded slightly, but the overall demand was average, and the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limited the price rebound [41][45]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short term [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products increased slightly. The starch price followed the raw material price, and the futures price spread between rice and starch strengthened slightly [47][49]. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price spread has recovered to some extent. Expect short - term fluctuations and consider band trading [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of processing enterprises decreased. The spot and futures prices were strong, but there might be selling pressure later. The 07 and 09 contracts are expected to be bullish in the long term [49][50]. - Investment advice: There is uncertainty in the new - season supply - demand. The spot and futures prices may fall later. Wait for a pull - back to go long in the 07 and 09 contracts [50]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the cash - to - three - month spread widened. The SHFE lead price fluctuated. The delivery volume will be reflected in the warehouse receipts, and the deep - decline possibility is low before the warehouse receipt risk is resolved [52]. - Investment advice: For the industry, consider short - selling at high levels. Observe the virtual - to - real ratio of the 12 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, wait and see. Consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. The short - term price fluctuation of SHFE zinc followed the macro trend, and the LME inventory change should be monitored [56]. - Investment advice: For the short - term, observe if the short - selling trend is established and consider short - selling at high levels. Consider positive arbitrage in the medium - term. Be cautious with short - term foreign - domestic reverse arbitrage [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The raw material price was expected to be stable and strong, and the refined nickel inventory accumulation slowed down [57]. - Investment advice: The market has a consistent expectation of nickel oversupply. Wait and see in the short term and consider long positions after the inventory accumulation inflection point [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto shelved the Jadar lithium project in Serbia. The strong reality and weak expectations coexisted. The inventory decline accelerated in the short term, but the supply may increase in the future [59][60]. - Investment advice: Expect a strong and volatile market in the short term and consider range trading. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the medium - term when the demand weakens and the project restart progress is clear [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price decreased slightly, and the trading volume remained high. The rigid demand during the compliance peak supported the carbon price, but the overall supply - demand structure was loose [62]. - Investment advice: The CEA has strong short - term support [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization decreased slightly this week. The probability of extreme market conditions for the 01 contract decreased significantly [64]. - Investment advice: Holders of short positions can take profits at around 2100 yuan/ton. If the price rebounds without a fundamental reversal, short positions can be re - established [6]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The supply of caustic soda increased, and the demand was stable. The low - concentration caustic soda price was stable, and the high - concentration caustic soda price increased slightly [66]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of caustic soda have little change, with overall supply - demand being relatively loose. Expect short - term fluctuations [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price weakened slightly. The futures price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited positive effects [69][70]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for near - term contracts. Consider long - term layout for far - term contracts after a significant price decline [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The futures price of pulp rose, and the market focused on the reduction of low - price warehouse receipts after December [72]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures are relatively strong in the near term. Monitor the warehouse receipt registration. If a large number of warehouse receipts are registered, the upward risk of the futures price will increase [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production and capacity utilization increased this week. The price of styrene rebounded, mainly due to the concentrated short - covering of crowded short positions [74][75]. - Investment advice: Monitor whether short positions will take profits in advance. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturer's inventory changed little this week. The futures price rebounded due to cost increases. The near - term contracts are relatively strong, but the far - term contracts may be under pressure with new capacity coming online [77]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts have some support, and the downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity release. Adopt a bearish approach in the medium - term [78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturer's inventory changed little this week, with regional differences. The futures price rebounded due to the strength of soda ash [79]. - Investment advice: The market has intense long - short games and large price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Port of Long Beach will develop a new container terminal. The focus of the European line is on the implementation of the December price increase and the adjustment at the EC2502 delivery date [80]. - Investment advice: The market fluctuates greatly. Pay attention to risk management and consider long positions on dips for the 02 contract [80].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago grain futures market experienced significant gains due to optimistic expectations regarding a potential compromise by the U.S. government to end the longest government shutdown in history, which would restore the normal release of agricultural data [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - January soybean futures showed notable performance, rising by 0.7% at one point during the trading session [4] - Wheat and corn futures also increased, reflecting the positive sentiment in the market [4] - As of the report, soybean futures narrowed their gains to 0.4%, closing at $11.2175 per bushel; wheat futures rose by 0.3% to $5.295 per bushel; corn futures increased by 0.2% to $4.28 per bushel [4] Group 2: Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, lasting 40 days, has created positive signals for a potential restart, which has influenced the rise in U.S. stock index futures and further bolstered market optimism [4] - The reliance of grain traders on the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports is critical, as key data reports, including the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, have been restricted since the government shutdown began in October 2025, leading to a long-term lack of authoritative data guidance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price in a callback trend [16] - US Dollar: Short - term oscillation [20] - Chinese Stock Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term high - level shock adjustment, with a bullish view considering profit support [27] - Treasury Bond Futures: Recently, the bond market is slightly bullish with limited upside, and long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] - Sugar: Chinese sugar market to oscillate, strict control on syrup and powder imports and reduced Q4 imports [34] - Steel: Adopt an oscillating approach to steel prices [41] - Live Pigs: Short - sell 03 contract after a sharp rebound, and keep an eye on long - positions in far - month contracts [44] - Red Dates: Wait and see, focus on price negotiation and acquisition progress in production areas [47] - Oils: If no major negative news, consider long - positions; wait for market sentiment to stabilize if negative [48] - Corn Starch: Band - trading [51] - Corn: 01 contract to oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; be cautious about far - month contracts [53] - Thermal Coal: Price to remain strong in the short - term, watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] - Iron Ore: Downside space limited, consider negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term oscillation, watch for risks from declining hot metal production [57] - Copper: Oscillation, consider buying on dips [60] - Polysilicon: If the contract price corrects to par or discount to spot, consider long - positions; beware of options risks this weekend [63] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] - Lead: Short - term strength, be cautious about chasing long; positive spread arbitrage available; be cautious in external trading [69] - Zinc: Speculative long - positions take profit on rallies; observe positive spread arbitrage opportunities; wait and see for external trading [74] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term wide - range oscillation; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] - Nickel: Wait and see for speculative single - side trading; bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] - Crude Oil: Price to oscillate [85] - Asphalt: Short - term weak oscillation [87] - Methanol: Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends; conservative investors take profit [89] - Pulp: Limited upside space [90] - Urea: Oscillation due to sentiment support [92] - Caustic Soda: Short - term weak oscillation [94] - Soda Ash: Downside space depends on coal price and new capacity; bearish in the medium - term [95] - Float Glass: Wait and see due to intense market game [97] - Container Freight Rates: Short - sell after the rally [99] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US ADP employment data in October exceeded expectations, indicating a short - term recovery in the labor market, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [2][19] - In the context of a global stock market correction, the A - share market showed unexpected resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][22] - The prices of steel, copper, and other commodities are affected by factors such as macro - expectations, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends [5][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, both better than expected [14][15] - Gold prices rebounded slightly, and the market is waiting for the end of the US government shutdown. Gold is expected to consolidate and approach the 60 - day moving average [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump blamed the government shutdown for the Democratic victory in local elections [17] - The US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's tariff policy [18] - The ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but the economic downward pressure continues, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up [21] - The A - share market showed resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM services PMI reached a new high [25][26] - The US economic data remained resilient, and the stock market's risk appetite recovered [26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan [28] - The bond market's upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. Long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 2025/26 sugar production season has started, and Brazil's sugar production estimate has been raised [30][31] - The expected high - yield of the two major producers has increased concerns about global supply surplus, which is negative for the market [34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in October increased year - on - year and month - on - month [35] - Steel prices continued to be weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in November - December [40] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The project of Wens Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary passed the environmental assessment, and Dabeinong signed a regulatory agreement [42][43] - The short - term spot market is bullish, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [43] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang is progressing, and the futures price declined [45][46] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [47] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% month - on - month [48] - The market expects inventory accumulation in October. Pay attention to actual data and November's high - frequency supply - demand data [48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机率 of corn starch enterprises increased, and the inventory slightly rose [49][51] - The inventory pressure is expected to be acceptable in January, and enterprises may maintain profitability [51] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is generally stable, with some regional differences [51] - Substitute supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term [52][53] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The international thermal coal price was strong on November 5, and the domestic price has risen recently [54][55] - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The demand for concrete weakened slightly, and iron ore prices oscillated weakly [56] - The downside space is limited, considering negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze was strong [57] - The short - term market is tight, but the hot metal production has peaked, and it may oscillate [57] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production in the first nine months increased by 2.1% year - on - year [58] - The short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and copper prices are expected to oscillate [60] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The number of photovoltaic component project bids decreased last week, and the price of polysilicon was under pressure [61][62] - November is a critical point of policy and fundamental game. Consider long - positions on dips if the contract price corrects [63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased, and the inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November [64] - Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the domestic lead price trended upward [69] - The short - term supply is slowly recovering, and pay attention to delivery risks; consider short - selling at high levels in the long - term [69] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc showed a premium, and the domestic zinc production is expected to decline in November - December [73] - Zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and need demand improvement for further rise [73] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate has been shipped, and EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement [75][76] - The short - term price may oscillate widely, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Minmetals' acquisition of a nickel business entered the second - stage review [80] - The short - term price may be under pressure, and bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan's oil field production decreased due to maintenance, and the EIA crude oil inventory increased [82][84] - Oil prices are expected to oscillate [85] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased [86] - The asphalt price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The Chinese methanol port inventory increased slightly [88] - The rebound does not indicate a fundamental reversal. Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends [89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price was stable, and the futures price rose [90] - The upward space of the pulp price is limited [90] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased, and the price oscillated upward due to export quota rumors [91] - The urea price may oscillate due to sentiment support [92] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally, and the inventory decreased [93][94] - The caustic soda price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [94] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in Shahe oscillated, and the demand may be affected in the short - term [95] - The soda ash price may decline in the medium - term, and the short - term downside space depends on coal price and new capacity [95] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Shahe increased slightly, and the market game is intense [96][97] - It is recommended to wait and see due to intense market game [97] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted European - route freight rates [98] - The container freight rate may rise in the short - term, and consider short - selling after the rally [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US 9 - month CPI was slightly lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's future interest rate path are key factors affecting the market [20][21]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted the stock market, especially technology stocks, but concerns about shrinking trading volume and liquidity decline remain. The performance of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical situations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 9 - month CPI was lower than expected, and the impact of tariffs on inflation was not fully reflected. Core inflation declined due to the easing of service costs. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the October meeting was fully priced in. Sino - US trade negotiations made some progress, which was negative for gold. Gold prices were expected to continue to be weak and may have further downward adjustment space [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to observe the support at the $4000 level [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canada, and Sino - US trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, reducing the possibility of short - term trade friction escalation. The US dollar index was expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month Markit service and manufacturing PMI preliminary values were better than expected, and the 9 - month core CPI growth was lower than expected. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Sino - US trade negotiations did not deteriorate further. The market risk appetite increased [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted the stock market, and technology stocks rose strongly, but trading volume was shrinking. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this change [25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The press conference on the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted market risk appetite, and the bond market declined. In the short term, the bond market was expected to fluctuate weakly, but there were still upward opportunities later [28]. - Investment advice: The market may adjust recently. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable, and the domestic market sentiment cooled. Coastal power plant restocking slowed down, but the early arrival of winter demand and stable supply provided strong support for coal prices [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to have strong support at the bottom [31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - LKAB's iron ore production in Q3 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The downstream demand weakened slightly, and the steel mill profit narrowed. Iron ore inventory was expected to gradually accumulate in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals were structurally weak [32]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of iron ore are structurally weak [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was higher than expected, and it was expected to decline slightly in the 44th week. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in October, and there were news about Indonesian palm plantations. The Brazilian soybean planting progress was good, and the production of US renewable fuels increased [33][34]. - Investment advice: For palm oil, consider going long on dips; for soybean oil, pay attention to the latest progress of Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's sugar production in September 2025 increased year - on - year. India advanced the sugar - cane crushing start date. Datagro expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production and a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The market was bearish, but there were still factors that could affect Brazilian sugar production, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere needed to be verified [35][37][38]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly volatile. Do not chase short positions blindly and pay attention to the upcoming National Sugar Conference [39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports accelerated in October. The international spot market was sluggish, and the increase in yarn prices was blocked. Zhengzhou cotton rose due to factors such as the increase in Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase prices, but its upward space was limited [40][42][43]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton's upward space is limited. Pay attention to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 60%. The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume was at a high level. The US soybean drought area remained unchanged, and the USDA report was suspended. The market was concerned about Sino - US trade talks and South American weather [45][46]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and South American weather [47]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased. The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Association proposed to impose carbon taxes on steel imports. The inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The overall demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate [48][50][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading mindset for steel prices [51]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The jujube price in the Hebei market was stable. The futures price of the main contract declined. The Xinjiang jujube was in the normal drying stage, and the inventory was at a high level. The market was bearish [52][53]. - Investment advice: The jujube market is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [53]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch inventory decreased seasonally. The raw material supply in North China decreased, and the opening rate decreased. The starch enterprise remained slightly profitable. The futures price difference between corn and starch was repaired [54]. - Investment advice: The price difference of the 01 contract may continue to be repaired [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased seasonally, while the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot price was expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate horizontally [56]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and going long may need to wait for an opportunity [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The Huatong electrolytic aluminum project in Angola is expected to be put into operation in December 2025. The domestic alumina price was under pressure due to the opening of the import window and oversupply [58][59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper production of some mines decreased in Q3 2025. The QB copper mine's short - term production capacity was affected by tailings facilities, which is expected to improve in 2027. The market's risk appetite increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations, which supported copper prices. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the medium - term outlook was good [61][62]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara's lithium - spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased, and the sales price rose. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the demand in the energy - storage field was strong. In the short term, the price was supported, but further upward movement may depend on supply - side disturbances [64][65]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term; consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term. For arbitrage, take profit on the previous reverse - spread and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunities of the LC2601 contract against more distant contracts [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The domestic new - installed photovoltaic capacity in September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The polysilicon price was stable, but the terminal demand weakened in late October. The cost of battery factories increased, and the silicon - wafer price was under pressure. However, due to policies and inventory conditions, the spot price was expected to remain stable [66][67]. - Investment advice: When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of policy - based trading decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, consider going long [68]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to break market barriers. The operating rate of industrial silicon in some regions changed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from downstream industries was for necessary purchases. The price was expected to be difficult to reduce inventory in November and may reduce inventory in December [69][70]. - Investment advice: Buying on dips for industrial silicon may be more cost - effective [70]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead and zinc production and sales increased significantly in the first three quarters of 2025. The primary lead production was restricted by raw materials, and the secondary lead production might increase. The social inventory of lead decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [71][72]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long; consider positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; be cautious in international trading [72]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc increased, and the LME inventory rebounded. The domestic TC quotation decreased, and the refinery profit might be under pressure. The demand was mainly oscillating, and the new special - bond issuance plan in November increased [74][75]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; wait and see for international trading [76]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand. The global nickel inventory accumulation was priced into the current low valuation. The price was in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for a breakthrough. The Philippine nickel - mine supply was affected by the rainy season, but the domestic port inventory was sufficient [77]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider buying on dips; speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly, and the investment fund's net long position reached a new high. The EU failed to reach an agreement on the 90% emission - reduction target, and the carbon price was expected to oscillate in the short term [79]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. The sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU led to a significant increase in oil prices. The reduction of Russian oil imports by Indian refineries needs further attention [81]. - Investment advice: The risk of a decline in Russian oil supply has increased, and oil prices will be boosted by the rising risk premium in the short term [82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price was stable, with individual slight adjustments. The futures price was relatively strong, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space was limited [83][84]. - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp futures is limited [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and macro - economic factors are causing significant fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets. - Different sectors are affected by specific events, such as sanctions, production changes, and policy adjustments, leading to diverse market trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian LNG and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats. - Gold price decline slowed, testing the 20 - day moving average support. The new sanctions pushed gold to rebound slightly, but the rebound space is limited, and the price has not stabilized yet. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price has increased long - short game and larger amplitude, not yet stabilized [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin, indicating the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - The short - term market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index fluctuated. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q3 revenue rebounded, but profit decreased by 31% more than expected. - The Fed considered reducing the bank capital requirement from 19% to a minimum of 3%. - PrimaLend applied for bankruptcy. - The market risk appetite decreased, and the three major stock indexes declined. - Investment advice: The US stock market shows a weak and volatile performance recently. Look for opportunities to buy on dips and maintain a bullish view overall [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.47 billion yuan. - The bond market fluctuated narrowly. The probability of double - cut (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio) is relatively low. - Investment advice: Observe the market sentiment and look for opportunities to buy mid - line long positions on dips [22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's September soybean crushing volume was 4.133 million tons. - Abiove predicted that Brazil's 25/26 annual soybean production will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons. - Investment advice: With the US government shutdown, focus on Brazil's weather and Sino - US relations. The domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to remain volatile [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Infrastructure central enterprises' new "new infrastructure" project contracts increased significantly in the first three quarters. - Steel prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The market has limited contradictions and driving forces. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the near term [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month. - The oil market corrected significantly. The increase in production reduced the possibility of tight supply in the fourth quarter. - Investment advice: After the over - expected production data in October, the confidence in the fourth - quarter palm oil price increase declined. Consider buying on dips around 9,000 yuan/ton and adopt a range - trading strategy [30]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Newcastle Port's coal transportation volume in September was 14.0804 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.57%. - The coal price was supported by the increase in power consumption and the contraction of supply. - Investment advice: Although the power consumption in 8 provinces decreased after the end of high - temperature weather, the coming of the cold wave in the north and the long - lasting winter are expected to strongly support the steam coal price [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate in North China decreased slightly, while that in Northeast China increased. - The futures rice - flour price difference rebounded significantly and is expected to continue to repair. - Investment advice: The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to continue to repair [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first heavy - haul train of Simandou was successfully dispatched. - The iron ore price fluctuated weakly. The performance of finished products was mediocre, and the inventory and profit pressure of steel mills restricted the price. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be structurally weak, and there is no clear trend for now [35]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market was weakly stable. - The futures price of the main contract CJ601 declined. - Investment advice: The next week is the key period for the formation of the purchase price. It is recommended to wait and see before the acquisition price is formed [37]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports increased seasonally. - The futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate narrowly. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The risk - return ratio of short - selling is not good, and it may be necessary to wait for the right time to go long [38]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic module exports in September were 25.63GW, a 6.0% month - on - month decrease and a 46.8% year - on - year increase. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The production in October is expected to be about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to decline significantly from November to December. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Group and its concerted actors pledged 49.91% of their shares in total. - The production in the north increased, while that in the south decreased. The inventory increased. - Investment advice: The fundamental situation is weakening, and the price has a clear lower limit. It is more cost - effective to buy on dips [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Hebei restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, observe the price in a volatile manner. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [47]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - MMG's zinc ore production in Q3 increased by 26%. - The LME zinc price fluctuated upward, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to wait and see. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy for domestic and foreign markets [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved. - The customs clearance of scrap copper imports became stricter, and the import volume in October may decline. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a high level. Consider buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, wait and see [54]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rongbai Technology achieved 10 - ton - level shipments of all - solid - state cathode materials. - The price was supported by the improvement of inventory data during the peak demand season. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the peak demand in the year. Consider reverse arbitrage for LC2511 - LC2601 and positive arbitrage for LC2601 against more distant contracts [55]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in Q3 was 46,800 tons, basically the same as the previous year. - The global nickel inventory increased, and the price fluctuated narrowly. - Investment advice: The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips. Speculative traders can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. - The US C3 inventory increased. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. - The US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, causing the oil price to rise significantly. - Investment advice: The short - term geopolitical conflict will cause disturbances [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - An East China refinery has a plan to shut down for maintenance. - The PX spot market is tight, and the price rebounded. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the space may be limited by the oil price [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated. - The demand side is stable, and the supply side is expected to increase. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the upward space is limited [70]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The production enterprise inventory was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. - The futures and spot prices decreased, and the spot price decreased more. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [73]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of urea enterprises increased, but the inventory accumulation slope slowed down. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner in the short term [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was basically stable. - The pulp futures price was relatively strong, but the upward space is limited due to the poor supply - demand situation. - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound after a sharp decline, with Bitcoin rising nearly 4% to reach $115,314.9 and Ethereum surging 10% [1][2] - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL, XRP, and Dogecoin also saw substantial gains, with increases of 11.03%, 5.48%, and 11.53% respectively [2] - The U.S. stock index futures also showed a strong upward movement, indicating a broader market recovery [3] A-Share Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the A-share market will continue to follow its own pace, independent of external influences [4] - According to Huajin Securities, the long-term trend for A-shares remains bullish, supported by structural recovery in earnings and potential credit improvements [5] - The current economic conditions indicate that consumer and investment resilience will limit downward pressure on earnings, suggesting a favorable environment for A-shares [5] Technical Analysis - Based on historical data, if the market is in a TACO phase, the Wind All A Index may find support between the 20-day and 30-day moving averages [6] - Historical analysis shows that after breaking below the 20-day moving average, the average adjustment period is 6.4 days with an average decline of 2.9%, indicating limited further downside [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock index futures are declining due to the government's shutdown resulting from Congress's failure to agree on a spending plan, which could disrupt the S&P 500's 14% gain this year [1] Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown will leave hundreds of thousands of federal employees unable to work [1] - The shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, including the employment report scheduled for Friday, which is crucial for market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next interest rate moves [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - There are signs of weakness in the U.S. stock market, raising concerns about the labor market situation [1] - Analysts suggest that a delay in the non-farm payroll data will only increase the uncertainty brought by the government shutdown, indicating that volatility is expected to rise as the new quarter begins [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 with an upward - revised GDP growth rate, which led to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate rather than decline unilaterally. In the commodity market, different products have different trends due to various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee said the job market is cooling while inflation is rising. Trump plans to increase tariffs on kitchenware and other products starting from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%. Gold prices fluctuated and rose with increased intraday volatility. Short - term gold prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [9][10][11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on brand and patented drugs and 25% tariffs on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, and the risk appetite declined. Short - term US stocks are expected to continue to adjust [13][15][16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to the lowest level since July. Fed official Bowman believes that the weakening job market justifies further interest - rate cuts. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating economic resilience and leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor supports the implementation of offshore bond repurchase business in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 25, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate, and it is expected to continue to find the bottom in the first half of October and may stabilize and rise in the second half [22][23][24] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Argentina resumed the export withholding tax on grains and other agricultural products. The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report on September 30. After the end of Argentina's export tax - exemption policy, the prices of domestic and foreign futures contracts stabilized and are expected to resume a fluctuating trend [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 11.31% month - on - month. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products. The global oil market rebounded, and the trading focus may return to the US biofuel policy. It is recommended to control positions before the National Day holiday [30][31][32] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - September 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of pig iron increased by 0.7% and that of steel products increased by 5.4%. As of September 25, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound before the holiday [33][34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract closed higher. The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the distribution areas is stable. The price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption, and the fundamentals are bearish [37][38] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate of North China's starch plants increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The downstream demand is weak, but the price of the 11 - contract has rebounded recently. It is recommended to widen the price difference between corn and starch at low prices [39][40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 24, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises decreased by 9.49%. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and the 11 - contract is relatively strong, while the far - month contracts are weak. The new corn is expected to have a good harvest, and the price is expected to be bearish in the medium term [40][41] 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On September 25, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The market trading was dull, and the price increase was limited. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the coal price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range around the long - term agreement price [42] 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon made key progress. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. Steel mills maintained low - volume replenishment before the holiday, and the price was supported. The fundamentals are in a dilemma, and the price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range [44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The price of polysilicon increased this week, and the production in October is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the price is expected to be difficult to fall in October. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, but the component price remained stable. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China announced new climate goals. Last week, there were no new furnace openings or closures. The southern silicon plants may reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [49][50] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the conditions for 190 mines to resume operations. The nickel ore price is firm, and the MHP price is strong. The global pure nickel inventory is high, and the nickel price lacks upward momentum. However, there are potential supply disturbances, and the low - valued nickel price has long - term bullish allocation value. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [51][52] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 24, the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $40.08 per ton. The downstream enterprises continued to stock up before the holiday, and the lead ingot social inventory continued to decline. The LME lead price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai lead price strengthened. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward [53][54] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Galvanized sheet enterprises plan to maintain normal production during the National Day holiday. As of September 25, the seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. The LME zinc price rebounded, and the Shanghai zinc price has support before the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [55][56][57] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tibet Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. The market is currently in a strong de - stocking reality. The price is expected to be under pressure before the actual resumption of production, and it may enter a downward channel after the demand peak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [58] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of September 25, the weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range [59][60][61] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On September 25, the PX price increased. Some domestic PX plants may postpone maintenance and expand production in Q4, and the PTA maintenance plan in Q4 increased. The PX inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][64] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis remained stable. The terminal orders increased slightly, and the PTA inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September - October and increase in November. The price is expected to fluctuate, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [65][66][67] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of September 19, the US natural gas inventory increased by 75 Bcf week - on - week. The natural gas price is expected to be supported in early winter but may be under pressure later. The European natural gas inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the price may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On September 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong had sporadic changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to weaken in the later stage. The downward space of the futures price is limited [70][71] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mostly stable. The futures price of the main contract continued to rise. The fundamentals of pulp are not good, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [72][73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fluctuated strongly. The futures price fluctuated strongly, but the downstream procurement was not active. The fundamentals are weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. The impact of domestic policy support should be monitored [75] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the output of Chinese styrene decreased slightly. The styrene price fluctuated narrowly, and the basis weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [76][77][79] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - China announced the 2035 carbon - reduction target, and the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)" was released. The trading volume of the national carbon market did not increase significantly, and the price stabilized. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the CEA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [80][81][82] 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd announced a price increase starting from October 15. The European line futures price continued to be strong. The price increase may not be implemented, and the price is expected to be affected by funds and sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly [83][84]