日度报告——综合晨报 美国 8 月消费者信心指数小幅回落至 97.4 特朗普持续施压美联储，降息预期继续支撑市场偏好，三大股 指低开高走，小幅收涨。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国将深入实施"人工智能+"行动 综 A 股市场情绪小幅降温，成交额缩量 4000 亿，高位股遭遇调整。 从股市自身结构看，估值偏贵、随时都可调整是我们的一贯判 断，但从情绪和资金面看，行情仍存上冲动能。 合 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 中国将深入实施"人工智能+"行动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-27 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 晨 美国原则上同意对印尼棕榈油、可可和橡胶豁免 19%关税 报 油脂市场弱势回调，等待市场后续指引 有色金属（多晶硅） 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 吕梁市场冶金焦价格偏强运行 盘面短期仍有调整压力，但需求高位稳定，因此调整后下方支 撑较强。 通威上半年多晶硅销售 16.13 万吨 单边仍以回调看涨思路对待，套利从盈亏比角度看可在-2000 元/ 吨左右重新关注 11-12 反套机会。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 （黑色金属） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] ...

日度报告——综合晨报 8 月 LPR 报价持稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-21 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储会议纪要：大多数委员认为通胀比就业风险更令人担忧 美联储利率纪要显示大多数委员还是更关心通胀，因此维持利 率水平不变，美元继续震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 8 月 LPR 报价持稳 近期会议政策相对较为密集，预计股市仍将偏强运行，债市表 现应是偏弱的。短线以偏空思路对待，博弈反弹需谨慎。 综 农产品（豆粕） 合 Pro Farmer 田间巡查第二天结果 晨 报 Pro Farmer 田间巡查显示美豆单产前景良好，显示 CBOT 大豆涨 幅。国内豆粕需求好于预期，油厂豆粕库存同比下降。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 中国 7 月碳酸锂进口量同比减少 42.67% 多头挤兑式平仓、盘面跌停，当前价格已回吐了枧下窝停产以 来的大部分涨幅，而基本面并无实质性超预期利空。 能源化工（液化石油气） 韩国计划重组石脑油裂解产能 消息面影响下周三 PG 合约走强，基本面支撑有限。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Anal ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US July PPI significantly exceeded expectations, increasing inflation pressure, which affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and various asset prices [13][16]. - In the commodity market, different commodities showed different trends due to supply - demand relationships and external factors. For example, steel prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation, and some agricultural products' prices were affected by production forecasts and export data [28][23]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US July PPI rose 3.3% year - on - year, causing the gold price to decline. The service cost increase was the main inflation driver, and the CPI still had upward potential. The market's expectation of a 50bp interest - rate cut in September decreased, and the short - term gold price was in a weak oscillation [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the callback risk as the short - term gold price is in a range - bound state [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July PPI significantly exceeded market expectations, strengthening inflation pressure and causing the US dollar index to rise. The market's interest - rate cut expectation declined, and the short - term risk appetite was moderately positive [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. The bond market was worried about the subsequent strength of the stock market. The stock market had a need for adjustment, and the bond market was difficult to have a trend - like market. - Investment advice: Allocation investors can gradually buy when the 10Y and 30Y interest rates are close to 1.75% and 2.0% respectively, while trading investors should be cautious in betting on rebounds [17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The unexpected PPI and under - expected CPI indicated that US enterprises might bear more tariff costs, and core inflation was sticky. The market's interest - rate cut expectation cooled, but the probability of a September interest - rate cut was still high at 92%. - Investment advice: The risk of inflation rebound during the tariff transmission process may increase market volatility [19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and Abiove both raised Brazil's 24/25 soybean production forecasts. US soybean exports were better than expected, but China's procurement of US soybeans remained stagnant. - Investment advice: The futures price may be volatile and strong before China resumes purchasing US soybeans. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US relations [23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - India's palm oil imports decreased in July. The vegetable oil market had a slight correction. - Investment advice: For the current vegetable oil market, it is recommended to buy on dips [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Japan launched an anti - dumping investigation on hot - dipped galvanized steel strips and sheets from China and South Korea. Steel prices oscillated weakly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. - Investment advice: The short - term market oscillates, and be vigilant against market fluctuations and callback risks [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by starch sugar products decreased, while the consumption of corn starch increased. The terminal demand was still weak, and the开机 rate was expected to be weak. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts' short positions can be held, and pay attention to the 11 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [32][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The pig - breeding industry was in the stage of policy implementation. The short - term pig price was under pressure, and the long - term price was expected to rise. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spread [33][34]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India planned to convert 4 - 5 million tons of sugar into ethanol in the 2025/26 season. Brazilian sugar exports improved, but the international sugar market was under pressure. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports decreased. The deep - processing consumption decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. - Investment advice: Hold the short positions of the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [40][41]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Henan increased its daily output. The supply - demand surplus continued, and the futures price was under pressure. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple events affected the copper market, including the restart of a Chilean smelter and the sudden supply of copper concentrate from an Indonesian smelter. The US PPI data affected the copper price. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic project started. The polysilicon market had problems such as inventory accumulation and slow improvement in fundamentals. - Investment advice: The price may oscillate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. Consider short - term callback opportunities and long - term long positions when the price drops below 47,000 yuan/ton [48][49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project was recognized. The supply and demand of industrial silicon were expected to be in a state of de - stocking in August. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the risk being the resumption of production by large factories [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased slightly. The raw material price started to weaken, and the nickel price was expected to oscillate. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [54][56]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the social inventory increased. The demand in the peak season had not been realized. - Investment advice: Take profit on the previous long positions and pay attention to the internal - external positive spread opportunity [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory increased significantly, and the zinc concentrate production of 29Metals decreased. The zinc price was affected by inventory and macro factors. - Investment advice: Manage positions unilaterally, pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities, and wait and see for internal - external operations [62]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium mine of CATL planned to stop production, which affected the supply of lithium carbonate. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of LPG in China decreased, and the port inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the long - term positive spread operation opportunity [65][68]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price oscillated slightly. The supply - demand structure was balanced and loose, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The demand was weak, and the gas price was expected to be bearish. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price decline accelerated, affected by raw materials and supply - demand. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term [73][75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal weaving load increased slightly, and the PTA supply decreased due to low processing fees. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export quotes decreased, and the market was in a state of low - season demand. - Investment advice: The industry is in a state of production reduction, and the price follows the polyester raw materials [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased, and the supply was stable while the demand was positive. - Investment advice: The caustic soda futures price is expected to oscillate [81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp market was stable, and the price oscillated slightly. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term [82][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased, and the social inventory continued to accumulate. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to oscillate, supported by macro and coal - price factors [85]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene production increased this week, and the price was affected by pure - benzene and supply - demand. - Investment advice: The styrene price is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the cost - side changes caused by oil - price fluctuations [86][87]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash increased, and the market was weak. - Investment advice: Manage positions well as the market is volatile [88]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass price decreased, and the market was in a state of strong supply and weak demand. - Investment advice: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash spread strategy [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is strong with increased trading volume, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of US additional tariffs [13]. - The US dollar is expected to maintain short - term oscillations [19]. - The economic downward pressure on the US stock index futures needs more data for verification, and attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [23]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous, so the long - position rhythm should be carefully grasped [25]. - The internal strength and external weakness of soybean meal remain unchanged, and its operating center is expected to steadily rise [27]. - The price of edible oils is expected to continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but its continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate [32]. - The market speculation sentiment of coking coal and coke is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - The short - term reverse spread structure of live pigs may continue, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - For lead, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [48]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. - For crude oil, attention should be paid to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. - For caustic soda, the downward space is limited [71]. - For pulp, the futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - For PVC, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - For styrene, it is recommended to pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $42 billion worth of 10 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.255% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.35 [11]. - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors and more secondary sanctions on Russia. Gold prices oscillated and declined, and the market is in a certain risk - aversion sentiment [12]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of US additional tariffs, and gold will continue to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June next year [14]. - The margin trading balance has risen back above 2 trillion yuan. The A - share market is strong, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Investment suggestion: Allocate various stock indices evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips [17]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook believes that the July employment report may indicate an inflection point in the US economy [18]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on India. The pressure on Russia to cease fire is increasing, but the actual effect is expected to be limited, and the US dollar will oscillate in the short - term [19]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar will maintain short - term oscillations [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and there are new variables in tariffs, but companies investing in the US are exempted [20]. - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on chip products, but companies that transfer production to the US will be exempted. Apple CEO Cook and Trump announced a new $100 billion investment plan [21]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. The overall tariff level remains around 18%, and the market risk appetite has recovered [22]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the callback risk at the current level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 6, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [24]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous [24]. - Investment suggestion: Carefully grasp the long - position rhythm [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 12.257 million tons of soybeans in July, with an average daily export volume of 533,000 tons, a 9% increase compared to July last year [26]. - The supply - demand situation has little change. The CBOT soybean futures continue to oscillate weakly. The domestic import cost of soybeans supports the soybean meal futures price [26]. - Investment suggestion: The internal strength and external weakness remain unchanged, and the operating center of soybean meal is expected to rise [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, while the production from August 1 - 5 decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [28][30]. - The edible oil market oscillated strongly, with soybean oil leading the rise. The palm oil production in August may be affected by rainfall, and the market is more inclined to long soybean oil [30]. - Investment suggestion: The price of edible oils is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - On August 6, the price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong. The over - production inspection continues, and the coal price is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but the continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - Investment suggestion: The over - production inspection from August to September may lead to a 2 - 3% decline in quarterly coal production, and the coal price is supported but difficult to rebound continuously [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - ArcelorMittal Mexico temporarily shut down its blast furnace production due to equipment failures [32]. - The iron ore price oscillated. Pay attention to the impact of the military parade production restrictions in mid - August, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. - Investment suggestion: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal, and all 32,000 tons of the 1/3 coking raw coal on offer failed to be sold [34]. - The coking coal futures price rose sharply, mainly due to supply - side news. The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - Investment suggestion: The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Shennong Group sold 174,700 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 327 million yuan. Dabeinong sold 593,900 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 984 million yuan [36][37]. - Group farms face the need to reduce the weight of pigs. The market's selling pressure remains unchanged, and the short - term reverse spread structure may continue [37]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugarcane planting area as of August 1 reached 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 164,000 hectares compared to the same period last year [39]. - Yunnan's sugar sales rate as of the end of July was 80.68%, and Guangxi's was 85.01%. The market pricing has shifted to processed sugar [40][42]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from July 1 - 31 were 1.834 million units, a 7% increase compared to July last year [43]. - In late July, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises decreased by 7.4% month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - Investment suggestion: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy and be cautious with light positions [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.92 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [47]. - The Shanghai lead futures rose slightly. The short - term bottom is further confirmed, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak fundamentals [48]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $13.16 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [49][50]. - The Shanghai zinc futures rebounded and oscillated. The LME inventory continued to decline, while the domestic social inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's Salt Lake's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project was officially put into production and sales [52]. - Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China increased in July. The demand is growing, and the supply is uncertain. The futures price may be affected by news this week [53]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP and Lundin Mining plan to apply for investment incentives in Argentina for their Vicuna copper project [55]. - An Indonesian smelter's maintenance will affect the electrolytic copper output by about 20,000 tons [56]. - FireFly Metals' Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada has strong development potential [57]. - The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ronghui International plans to acquire 60% of the equity of an Indonesian nickel mining company for $9.9 million [59]. - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The nickel price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [61][62]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased for propane and increased for butane on August 6 [63]. - The US C3 inventory increased in the week ending August 1. The Panama Canal's passage situation has attracted market attention [64]. - Investment suggestion: The market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US announced additional tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian energy [66]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 1. The oil price turned from rising to falling [67]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong remained stable on August 6, with the supply increasing slightly and the demand being moderate [69]. - The caustic soda futures price is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited [71]. - Investment suggestion: The downward space is limited [71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was stable with only slight increases on August 6 [72]. - The pulp futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased on August 6. The futures price oscillated strongly, but the spot market trading was light [73]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 3.24% week - on - week to 887,600 tons on August 6 [74]. - The urea futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 152,000 tons on August 6 compared to July 30 [76]. - The styrene - pure benzene spread is recommended to be narrowed, and attention should be paid to the profit - taking opportunity [77]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US July non - farm payrolls were far below expectations, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, a weakening of the US dollar index, and concerns about the economic and demand prospects in various markets [1][14][18]. - The new issuance of treasury bonds will resume a 6% VAT levy from August 8, 2025, which may cause price differentiation between new and old bond types in the short - term and is bearish for the bond market in the long - term [25][26]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors. For example, steel prices are under回调 pressure, and agricultural product prices are influenced by policies and supply - demand relationships [4][31][42]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US 7 - month non - farm employment was far below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June. Gold prices rose about 2% on Friday. The market quickly adjusted its expectations for the Fed's rate cut in September, but gold remained in a short - term shock range. It is recommended that gold prices be in a short - term shock after pricing the positives on Friday [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The resignation of the Fed governor may allow Trump to choose Powell's successor earlier. The US July non - farm data was far below expectations, and the labor market had a potential inflection point, causing the US dollar index to weaken significantly. It is recommended that the US dollar index be weak in the short - term [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics director due to manipulated employment data. The July non - farm data showed a cooling employment market, and the significant downward revision of previous values increased market concerns about the real economy. It is expected that the stock index will continue to decline [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Recently, many active equity funds have announced purchase restrictions. The stock market has corrected from a high level, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3600 points. The 7 - month PMI was below expectations, and some micro - cap quantitative strategy funds announced purchase restrictions, indicating that the market has a preliminary perception of the high current level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Starting from August 8, 2025, a 6% VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds. The market is expected to rise first and then fall next week. In the short - term, it may cause price differentiation between new and old bond types, and in the long - term, it is bearish for the bond market. It is recommended that trading positions gradually withdraw from long positions [25][26][28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US June soybean crushing volume was 5.91 million short tons. The domestic soybean meal futures price was relatively strong compared to the external market. The supply - demand situation of domestic soybean meal changed little, and the inventory was expected to continue to rise. It is expected that the situation of strong domestic and weak external markets will continue, and the trading center of soybean meal will move up [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's June palm oil exports increased slightly year - on - year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased month - on - month. There were news of domestic traders exporting soybean oil to India. It is expected that palm oil will maintain a narrow - range shock, and short - term consideration can be given to a long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil spread [34][35]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coke price in the Changzhi market was running strongly. The coking coal price continued to strengthen, but the increase narrowed. The coal - coke futures market fluctuated greatly. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a shock trend, and the 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation [37][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan increased the tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth by 18%. The demand for imported cotton in Vietnam decreased, and the inventory of finished products increased. The weekly export signing volume of new US cotton decreased. ICE cotton prices are expected to be in a low - level weak shock. It is expected that the decline space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and there may be a rebound before the large - scale listing of new cotton [42][43]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 25/26 sugar production is expected to increase. StoneX lowered the global sugar supply surplus in 2025/26. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of July increased year - on - year. ICE raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak shock. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be in a weak shock in the short - term, with the operating range between 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [44][48][49]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's heavy - truck sales increased in July. The US will impose tariffs on Brazilian semi - finished steel. Steel prices continued to be in a weak shock, with inventory accumulation and a seasonal decline in building material demand. It is expected that steel prices will still have回调 pressure in the near future [50][53][54]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on August 1. The supply and demand of steam coal were both weakening. It is expected that the coal price will continue to be in a shock market, with limited short - term rebound height [55][56]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The sales of new cars decreased in July. The iron ore price followed a slight correction this week, and the fundamentals were not in sharp contradiction. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a shock [57][58]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The port inventory of cassava starch decreased slightly, and the price difference with corn starch narrowed. The开机 rate of downstream starch sugar was still weak year - on - year. It is expected that the price difference between rice and flour will remain in a low - level shock [59][60]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The average inventory of feed enterprises increased year - on - year. The North Port inventory continued to decline, and the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased. It is expected that corn will maintain a downward shock trend in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions in new crops [61][62]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association called for production control and the implementation of ESG standards. The macro - environment was short - term positive, and the fundamentals of nickel showed a supply - surplus situation. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [63][64][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - South Korea's copper exports to the US are expected to decline due to tariffs. Codelco cut copper mining at the El Teniente project. The overseas macro - expectations were volatile, and the global visible inventory was rising. It is recommended to take a short - term short - selling strategy and wait for medium - term long - buying opportunities [66][69][70]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in various regions increased slightly. The inventory situation was mixed. The "anti - involution" trading of industrial silicon declined, but the fundamentals improved marginally. It is recommended that short positions consider gradually stopping losses and waiting for long - buying opportunities [71][72]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving inspection task for the polysilicon industry, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added designated quality inspection institutions. The spot transaction price of polysilicon increased, but the production was expected to increase in August, resulting in a surplus. It is expected that the polysilicon price will run between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [73][75][77]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The annual output of PLS exceeded expectations. The demand for lithium carbonate in August was positive, and the supply had uncertainties. It is recommended to consider short - term long - buying positions and stop profiting from the 9 - 11 spread [78][79]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - forward spread decreased, and the supply of zinc was expected to increase in August. The demand was weak. The zinc price may have a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider a medium - term positive spread [80][81]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price was in a shock. The power industry demand was low, and the US tariff measures may affect European manufacturing. It is expected that the EU carbon price will be in a short - term shock [82][83]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Oil prices fell on Friday due to concerns about demand. It is expected that oil prices will maintain a shock [85][86][87]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was average. It is expected that the caustic soda market will be in a shock [87]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of some imported wood pulp varieties was stable, and some continued to decline. The pulp market was weak. It is expected that the pulp futures will follow the commodity correction [88][89]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder decreased. The futures market was weak, and the demand was average. It is expected that the PVC futures will follow the commodity correction [90]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips continued to decrease. The bottle chip factory implemented a production - cut plan. The demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to consider increasing the processing margin of bottle chips at low valuations [92][93]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The port inventory of Chinese urea decreased. The supply pressure continued to exist, and the demand was average. The urea market was under shock pressure. It is expected to wait for new policy variables [94][95]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved. The supply - demand pattern was in a tight - balance state. It is expected that PTA will follow the commodity sentiment for shock adjustment [96][98].

Core Viewpoint - The market's muted reaction to the latest U.S. tariffs suggests that investors may have already anticipated these developments and adjusted their portfolios accordingly [1] Market Reaction - Analysts note that market volatility remains orderly, indicating a lack of panic among investors [1] - There has been no significant sell-off in growth assets such as U.S. stock index futures and Bitcoin, nor a substantial shift towards safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased risk aversion, a rebound in the US dollar index, and a decline in the three major US stock indexes [1][2][16]. - The capital - market equilibrium supports the strength of the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties [3][21]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and the agricultural product market is also affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [5][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump has issued tariff letters to 14 countries, with tariffs on some countries ranging from 25% to 40% and set to take effect on August 1st. Gold prices fluctuated slightly higher, and the market's panic was limited due to the possibility of negotiations before the implementation [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices remain in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Former Fed official Kevin Warsh suggested a rate cut, stating that tariffs would not cause inflation. The EU is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the US to lock in a 10% tariff rate after August 1st. Trump's tariff pressure has led to a decline in global risk appetite, a rebound in the US dollar index, and an increase in safe - haven assets [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Wash suggested a rate cut, believing that Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation. Trump postponed the tariff deadline to August 1st, but the announced tariff rates for some countries are higher than the 10% benchmark. The market maintains a risk - averse sentiment, and the impact of tariffs on corporate earnings should be noted during the earnings reporting season [18][19]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the risk of a correction in US stocks [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The capital - market equilibrium supports the bond market, but the direct breakthrough of the bond market may face difficulties. The impact of trade conflicts on the bond market needs further observation [20][21]. - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 1.92 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained at 66%, and the weekly export inspection report met market expectations. Domestic soybean meal inventory increased rapidly due to sufficient imports and high - capacity operation of oil mills [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: Futures prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The EU set a new import quota of 100,000 tons for Ukrainian sugar. Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June, a 4.91% increase year - on - year. Pakistan's sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, and the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures is limited [28][29][31]. - Investment advice: Although the production and sales data in domestic main producing areas in June were positive as expected, the market focus has shifted to processed sugar. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions increased, while that of palm oil decreased slightly. The palm oil market is relatively strong, and the soybean oil market is weak due to high - capacity operation. The strength - weakness pattern may change under certain conditions [33][34]. - Investment advice: The oil market is expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding the YP spread, but wait for a clear driving force and observe in the short term [34]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global new ship order volume has decreased by 54% year - on - year this year. Steel prices fluctuated slightly lower. The short - term fundamentals are relatively strong, but some spot demand comes from the covering of previous short positions. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][35][36]. - Investment advice: Spot steel should be hedged on rallies [37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on July 7 were - 111 yuan/ton, - 49 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and - 97 yuan/ton respectively. Starch is expected to gradually reduce its operating rate to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect [38]. - Investment advice: The inventory cycle of starch changes rapidly, and there are many uncertainties in the future [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Due to the import corn auction, the market sentiment was affected, corn futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. The market expects that the import auction will suppress spot prices [39]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the results of future import auctions. If the transaction rate drops significantly and the premium disappears, short positions on new crops can be lightly entered in advance [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 7, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The port has a structural shortage, but downstream demand is not strong. The price is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to changes in power plant loads and port inventories [40][41]. - Investment advice: The price of steam coal is expected to remain stable in July, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Shanxi [41]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01% - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils. Iron ore prices fluctuated, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of the anti - dumping ruling is limited [42]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term, as the upside of iron ore prices is limited [42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, the coking coal price is expected to remain stable. The supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price increase momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [43][44]. - Investment advice: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. If demand weakens, the upside of coking coal prices is limited [44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - AIXU Co., Ltd.'s 3.5 billion yuan private placement was approved. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the actual problem of over - supply has not been solved. The future price increase depends on production cuts and price increases in the downstream market [45]. - Investment advice: The futures market has factored in the impact of price - limit policies. It is recommended to observe due to high policy - related risks [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The electrode market demand is weak, and cost transfer is blocked. The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan is expected to increase. The upside of industrial silicon prices is limited, and there may be opportunities for short - selling on rallies [47][48][49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies of industrial silicon, and manage positions carefully when building positions on the left side [50]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Political conflicts in Bolivia have affected lithium - mining cooperation. Downstream demand for lithium carbonate has gradually recovered, and the supply pressure is limited. The market focus is on demand [51]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Avoid short positions for now, and wait for a better opportunity to build mid - term short positions [52]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of July 7, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends. The demand from battery factories has increased, but the terminal consumption is weak. Lead prices are expected to gradually rise, and attention can be paid to buying on dips [53][54][55]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and selling put options. Observe in terms of spreads and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [55]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. The domestic zinc inventory increased. Zinc prices declined due to macro - and fundamental factors. The market is expected to be in a surplus in July - August, and attention should be paid to the return of zinc trading to fundamentals [56][57][58]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term for single - side trading. Protect previous short positions. For spreads, observe in advance for positive spread arbitrage opportunities. Maintain the idea of internal - external positive spread arbitrage in the mid - term [59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory remained unchanged on July 7. The supply of nickel ore is slightly tight, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is in surplus, and prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [60][61]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to fall further deeply, but there is no upward momentum. In the mid - term, pure nickel prices are expected to follow the cost of pyrometallurgy, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has strengthened the crackdown on illegal mining, which has led to protests. LME copper inventory has increased. Copper prices are under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and inventory increases [63][65][66]. - Investment advice: Observe in both single - side and spread trading, as copper prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Three PDH plants are planned to restart in early July. The domestic and international spot prices of liquefied petroleum gas have declined, and the market is in a weak state. The short - term outlook is affected by tariff policies [67][68]. - Investment advice: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. There is a small upside potential for international prices if buying returns after the tariff uncertainty is resolved [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day in September. Oil prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the impact of the production increase on prices was limited due to market expectations and the inability of some countries to reach the production target [69]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of July 7, the inventory of asphalt increased slightly. Asphalt futures prices fluctuated between 3,500 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the downside of asphalt futures prices is limited, with an expected upward trend [70]. - Investment advice: Asphalt futures prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [71]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of July 7, urea enterprise inventory decreased. The futures market showed different trends in different contracts. The market focus is on export quotas and supply - side changes [72]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the realization of the new export quota expectation. The 09 contract has some support before the expectation is falsified [73]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - Bottle chip factory export quotes were slightly lowered, and the market trading was light. Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if the cuts are implemented, inventory pressure is expected to be relieved [74][76]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by buying on dips, as the supply pressure will be relieved in the short term [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of July 7, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The market outlook for pure benzene is still weak in the second half of the year, but there may be opportunities for long - term light - position exploration [77][78]. - Investment advice: The listing price of the 2603 pure benzene contract is considered neutral. In the mid - term, the overall view is bearish, but light - position long - entry opportunities can be considered when the spread is compressed [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On July 7, the soda ash market in the Shahe area was in a volatile adjustment. The supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak [79]. - Investment advice: In the mid - term, maintain the view of short - selling soda ash on rallies due to high inventory and cost reduction [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On July 7, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly. The factory shipment is okay, but the downstream purchasing rhythm has slowed down. The fundamentals are still weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is uncertainty in real - estate policies [80]. - Investment advice: From a single - side perspective, the risk - reward ratio of short - selling may not be high. It is recommended to consider the cross - commodity arbitrage strategy of buying glass and short - selling soda ash [81].

Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures continued to rise following the release of the June non-farm payroll report [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term. Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict. The stock market's high - risk preference may continue, and the high - level oscillation pattern will persist. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through. Most commodities face supply - side pressures, and their prices are expected to be under pressure, while some may have short - term trading opportunities [12][16][18][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - International Atomic Energy Agency plans to return to Iranian nuclear facilities. Powell's congressional stance is hawkish, negating short - term rate - cut expectations, so the Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [10][12]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell said the US is not in a recession. If inflation or the labor market is weak, the Fed may cut rates early. Bostic believes there is no need to cut rates currently but expects a 25 - basis - point cut later this year. Gold prices have fallen by more than 1% due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment after the Iran - Israel cease - fire [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has regained 3400 points. Six departments have issued a document to promote consumer finance support. The stock market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, and the high - risk preference may continue, with the high - level oscillation pattern persisting [17][18]. - Investment advice: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in June was lower than expected. Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see attitude and did not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut. After the Iran - Israel cease - fire, the market risk preference has improved significantly, and the technology sector has led the index [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to oscillate weakly at the current level [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations and 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF shows its intention to protect liquidity. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through [23][24]. - Investment advice: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in April increased to 3.04 million tons. The palm oil market is affected by the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the decline in crude oil prices. The market is in a game between production increases in the origin and inventory accumulation in the sales area [26]. - Investment advice: Wait for the market sentiment to stabilize and then gradually arrange long positions in the far - month contracts [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - It is predicted that Brazil's sugar production will increase by 2.7% in the 2025/26 season, and the global market may have a supply surplus of 2.6 million tons. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the international sugar price is under pressure from the supply side [29][30]. - Investment advice: The rebound space and sustainability of Zhengzhou sugar are limited [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn - starch exports in May continued to rise. The export policy has been relaxed, but the export proportion is still relatively small. The core factor of the starch supply - demand situation may be the cassava substitution [31][32]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see mainly [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of Northeast corn is running strongly, but the futures price has started to fall. The warehouse receipt pressure may appear, and the old - crop contracts are expected to oscillate narrowly [33]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for new - crop contracts 11 and 01 when the production situation is clearer [33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference of imported steam coal exists. The coal price has eased in June, and the demand has a seasonal recovery. The short - term price is expected to be stable [33][34]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be stable [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Malaysia has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese cold - rolled steel coils. The iron ore price is in an oscillating market, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [36]. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate weakly, with the spot weaker than the futures [37]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of organic silicon DMC has been slightly adjusted upwards. The resumption of production of industrial silicon is greater than the reduction, and the demand is not improving significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [38]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has extended the informal mining temporary license to the end of the year. The macro - level factors for copper are mixed in the short term. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. The copper price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [43]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy for single - side trading and wait patiently for cross - period layout opportunities [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In May, the import and export volume of Philippine nickel ore increased. The nickel market has a tight supply of high - grade nickel ore, and the nickel - iron supply is expected to be in surplus in June. The pure - nickel price is oscillating weakly [44][45]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The market is trading the expectation of improved demand. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the supply of recycled lead has decreased. The demand is in the off - season and is expected to be weak until July [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the short term, and wait and see for cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount. Some zinc smelters are resuming production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthening, but the inventory accumulation height is limited. The zinc price decline may be a tug - of - war process [49]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies, pay attention to the 21500 - 21600 yuan support level, and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [49]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium projects have obtained approvals or financing. The LC2507 contract has a high position, and attention should be paid to the position - reduction rhythm before entering the delivery month [51]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions at the current level, consider partial profit - taking for previous short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [52]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude - oil inventory has decreased. Oil prices have continued to fall, and the risk premium has been significantly reversed. The supply of the crude - oil market has high potential for increase in the medium - to - long term [53][54]. - Investment advice: The short - term risk premium will be reversed [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Some urea plants have had failures and stopped production. The urea price is falling, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. The key variable lies in the export [57]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in export quotas and overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle - chip factories has been partially reduced. The polyester raw material price has fallen significantly, and the bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of the impact of raw - material price fluctuations [61]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market is oscillating at a low level. The fundamentals are under pressure, with supply stable and demand weak [62]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in the Shahe market is stable. The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will be relatively stable. The price has downward adjustment space [64]. - Investment advice: The short - term rebound may be difficult to sustain, and the price has downward adjustment space [64]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene has been reduced. The supply of styrene is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The pure - benzene price may have some repair space [67]. - Investment advice: The styrene price depends on the oil price and supply disturbances, and pay attention to the impact of the home - appliance subsidy policy [67]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has risen. The carbon - market trading has increased slightly, but the supply - demand structure is expected to be loose this year, and the price is under pressure [68]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [69].