证 券 研 究 报 告 参与升温压低折扣，行业上行推高收益 ——2025H1定增市场回顾暨2025H2展望 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 任奕璇 A0230525050002 联系人: 朱敏 A0230524050004 2025.07.03 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 上市节奏稳健、投资者参与升温，折扣降至近一年低位。25H1沪深A股上市定增项目76个，同比下滑7%、 环比增长23%，受超千亿定价项目拉动，募资额达6959.19亿元，同比、环比均翻六倍以上，占股权融资比 重升至91%。其中，竞价项目上市42个，募资493.02亿元，同比下降31%、11%；单个项目平均参与家数 环比增加5家至23家，导致申报入围率降至57.99%，申报溢价率中枢上移。参与热度回升带动竞价募足率 同比回升27pct至71.43%，而基准折价率、市价折价率创近一年新低，均值分别为11.17%、11.68%。 其中，16.67%竞价项目底价定价，为24H1至今谷值；45.24%竞价项目市价折价率不足10%，环比翻倍。 ◼ 行业β及个股α ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Southern Road Machinery (603280) experienced a decline of 3.10% today, with a significant turnover rate of 51.16% and a trading volume of 381 million yuan, indicating high trading activity and potential investor concern [2][3]. Trading Activity - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "Dragon and Tiger List" due to its turnover rate reaching 51.16%, with a total net sell of 39.17 million yuan from brokerage seats [2]. - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction of 90.87 million yuan, with buying transactions amounting to 25.85 million yuan and selling transactions totaling 65.02 million yuan, resulting in a net sell of 39.17 million yuan [2]. - The largest buying brokerage was UBS Securities with a purchase amount of 7.49 million yuan, while the largest selling brokerage was East Asia Qianhai Securities with a selling amount of 19.77 million yuan [2]. Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 13.72 million yuan in principal funds today, with a significant outflow of 10.43 million yuan from large orders and 3.29 million yuan from big orders [3]. - Over the past five days, the stock experienced a net inflow of 75.31 million yuan in principal funds [3]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter, the company reported a revenue of 134 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 28.96%, while the net profit was 10.76 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 22.81% [3].

Group 1: Company Announcements - China Merchants Bank has received approval to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, China Merchants Financial Asset Investment Co., with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aimed at market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and equity investment pilot projects [3] - Aerospace Chengtong has had its qualification for military material engineering service procurement restored after completing internal investigations and appeals [4] - Funiu Co.'s controlling shareholder has obtained a loan commitment of up to 162 million yuan from Bank of China Fujian Branch to increase its stake in the company [5] - Jiete Bio plans to establish a partnership fund with a total investment of 50.01 million yuan, focusing on early and mid-stage biopharmaceutical projects [6] - ST Yazhen's stock will resume trading on July 4 after completing a review due to a significant price deviation [7] - Xingxin New Materials intends to invest approximately 800 million yuan in a project to produce 153,000 tons of polyolefin amine series products in the China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park [8] - Changling Hydraulic's controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of trading [9] - Xinda Real Estate's affiliate will provide up to 240 million yuan for asset renovation projects, with a 7-year term and a 5% annual interest rate [10] Group 2: Major Contracts - China Electric Power Construction has signed a mining transportation project contract worth approximately 5.063 billion yuan in Guinea, with a total project duration of about 72 months [12] - China Oil Engineering's subsidiary has signed a contract worth 294 million USD (approximately 2.122 billion yuan) for the Atawi GMP pipeline project in Iraq, which will positively impact future revenues and profits [13] - Boshi Co. has entered into an outsourcing service contract with China National Petroleum Corporation, valued at 109 million yuan over a 3-year period [14] Group 3: Performance Updates - Poly Developments reported a 30.95% year-on-year decrease in June contract amount to 29.011 billion yuan, with a total of 145.171 billion yuan for the first half of the year, down 16.25% [16] - Huayin Power expects a net profit increase of 175 to 215 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased power generation and reduced fuel costs [17]

Group 1 - The stock of Weisaibo (688718) has a comprehensive score of 62.03, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows the following prices: 12.37 CNY for the current day, 12.34 CNY for the 5-day average, 12.10 CNY for the 20-day average, and 11.58 CNY for the 60-day average [1] - Over the past year, the stock has experienced one limit-up and no limit-down occurrences [1] Group 2 - The short-term resistance level is at 12.38 CNY, while the short-term support level is also at 12.38 CNY [2] - The mid-term resistance level is at 11.56 CNY, and the mid-term support level is currently unclear [2] - The K-line patterns indicate a long lower shadow, suggesting a potential reversal after a decline, and a hanging man pattern, indicating a possible top signal in an uptrend [2] Group 3 - On July 3, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 43.14 thousand CNY, accounting for 3% of the total transaction volume [2] - There was no net inflow from large orders, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 62.04 thousand CNY [2] - Related industry sectors include specialized equipment (0.57%), new materials (0.48%), and micro-cap stocks (0.62%) [2]

Group 1 - The stock of Ruishun Technology (688090) has a comprehensive score of 57.45, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows that the current main cost is 33.23 CNY, with a 5-day main cost of 33.53 CNY, a 20-day main cost of 31.53 CNY, and a 60-day main cost of 31.25 CNY [1] - Over the past year, the stock has experienced 2 instances of hitting the upper limit and 1 instance of hitting the lower limit [1] Group 2 - The short-term resistance level is at 34.39 CNY, while the short-term support level is at 32.85 CNY [2] - The current short-term trend is unclear, with the market waiting for the main funds to choose a direction [2] - The K-line pattern indicates a potential upward movement, with a "bullish engulfing" pattern suggesting possible upward continuation or a composite top signal [2] Group 3 - On July 3, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 246.93 thousand CNY, accounting for 6% of the total transaction amount [2] - Large orders saw a net inflow of 270.93 thousand CNY, while super large orders experienced a net outflow of 24.00 thousand CNY, and retail investors had a net outflow of 55.73 thousand CNY [2] - Related industry sectors include specialized equipment (0.57%), machine vision (0.41%), new energy vehicles (0.80%), and robotics concepts (0.69%) [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The current state of the computer knitting machine industry shows both resilience and pressure, with a stable start in Q1 2025 due to domestic sales policies and export demand, but facing order slowdowns due to tariff policies and consumer demand [3] - The industry is experiencing intensified homogenization competition, leading to compressed profit margins and a need for structural adjustments [3] Group 2: Financial Mechanisms - The company employs a buyer's credit model where customers pay a certain percentage as a down payment, with the remaining financed by banks under the company's guarantee, totaling a guarantee balance of ¥94.26 million, which is 2.94% of the latest audited net assets [3] - The company has had to cover overdue repayments amounting to ¥4.80 million due to customer defaults [3] Group 3: International Market Presence - The overseas market accounts for approximately 10%-15% of the company's business, primarily in Southeast Asia and emerging markets like Mexico, Russia, and Egypt [3] - The markets in Vietnam and Cambodia have seen significant growth due to domestic companies investing abroad in response to tariff policies [3] Group 4: Acquisition of Shenyang Shunyi Technology - The acquisition aims to transform and upgrade the company's production capabilities, addressing cyclical market demands and stabilizing performance [5] - Shunyi Technology holds 40 invention patents and is recognized as a high-tech enterprise, providing a strong technological foundation for collaboration [5] - The integration of technologies between the two companies can enhance innovation in automation, AI, and digital transformation [6] Group 5: Future Development Directions - The company plans to solidify its core business while exploring new product lines in smart knitting equipment and non-apparel technology sectors [7] - Future growth will focus on developing niche models like glove machines and collar machines, alongside expanding into smart wearable and medical textile fields [7]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Group 1: Nanjing Business Travel - Nanjing Business Travel (600250) expects a net profit of 6 million to 9 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 67.4% to 78.27% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 5.5 million and 8.5 million yuan, down 17.34% to 46.52% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Jihong Co., Ltd. - Jihong Co., Ltd. (002803) anticipates a net profit of 112 million to 119 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 55% to 65% year-on-year [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 106 million and 113 million yuan, up 68.16% to 79.62% year-on-year [2] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.29 yuan and 0.31 yuan [2] Group 3: Zhuhai Design - Zhuhai Design (300564) announced that its actual controller plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares, totaling 483.95 million shares [3] Group 4: Anjisi - Anjisi (688581) disclosed that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2% of the company's shares, totaling 162.27 million shares [4] Group 5: Jingwei Huikai - Jingwei Huikai (300120) intends to acquire a total of 12.44% equity in Nuo Si Wei, with a total transaction price of approximately 1.49 billion yuan [4] - The acquisition will increase the company's control over Nuo Si Wei from 22.12% to 34.56% [4] Group 6: Hainan Highway - Hainan Highway (000886) is planning to purchase 51% equity in Hainan Jiao Control Petrochemical, which will become a subsidiary after the transaction [9] Group 7: *ST Modern - *ST Modern (002656) has applied to revoke other risk warnings but will still face delisting risk warnings due to financial indicators [10] Group 8: Ningde Times - Ningde Times (300750) has repurchased 6.641 million A-shares at a total cost of 1.551 billion yuan [11][12] Group 9: Lixun Precision - Lixun Precision (002475) is planning to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [13] Group 10: Ruikang Pharmaceutical - Ruikang Pharmaceutical (002589) announced that its vice president has been placed under detention by the local supervisory committee [14] Group 11: Changchun High-tech - Changchun High-tech (000661) announced that its subsidiary has received approval for a new drug, a monoclonal antibody for gout treatment [15] Group 12: Guofang Group - Guofang Group (002708) plans to reduce its holdings by up to 1.45% of the company's shares, totaling 666 million shares [16] Group 13: Guangyang Co., Ltd. - Guangyang Co., Ltd. (002708) announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.65% of the company's shares, totaling 922.76 million shares [17] Group 14: Zhixin Precision - Zhixin Precision (301512) disclosed that a major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.86% of the company's shares, totaling 99 million shares [18] Group 15: Xinzhou Bang - Xinzhou Bang (300037) announced that its directors and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 126.88 million shares [19] Group 16: Guoanda - Guoanda (300902) announced that its actual controllers plan to reduce their holdings by up to 362 million shares [20]

Group 1 - In the first quarter, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1509.36 billion yuan, reversing a decline of 3.3% from the previous year to a growth of 0.8% [1] - The profit growth was driven by the continuous release of the "two new" policy effects, rapid profit growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, and an acceleration in enterprise revenue growth [1][2] - In March, the profit growth of industrial enterprises turned from a decline of 0.3% in January-February to an increase of 2.6% [1] Group 2 - Nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth in the first quarter, with manufacturing showing significant improvement; 24 out of 41 major industrial categories experienced either accelerated profit growth or reduced declines, resulting in a recovery rate of 58.5% [2] - Manufacturing profits increased by 7.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to January-February [2] - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing 2 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [2] Group 3 - The "two new" policy continued to show positive effects on industry profits, with specialized equipment and general equipment industries seeing year-on-year profit growth of 14.2% and 9.5%, respectively [3] - The effects of the consumption upgrade policy were evident, with profits in wearable smart device manufacturing, electric vehicle manufacturing, and kitchen appliance manufacturing increasing by 78.8%, 65.8%, and 21.7% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Overall, industrial enterprises' profits showed a sustained recovery trend in the first quarter, supported by macroeconomic policies and a favorable external environment [3]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as in March [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening compared to March, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1][2] - Energy prices fell by 4.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] Group 2: Food and Service Prices - Food prices saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which is above seasonal levels; beef prices rose by 3.9% month-on-month due to reduced imports [2] - Travel service prices increased significantly, with airfares rising by 13.5%, vehicle rental fees by 7.3%, hotel accommodation by 4.5%, and tourism prices by 3.1% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating the gradual effect of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [2] Group 3: High-Tech Industry Impact - The development of high-tech industries, such as smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing, has led to price increases in related sectors, with wearable device manufacturing prices rising by 3.0% year-on-year [3] - The diversification of trade and market expansion has resulted in price increases or reduced declines in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which saw a 2.7% year-on-year price increase [3] - Recent financial support policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to provide significant support for future price trends [3]