Financial Performance - Elevance Health reported an adjusted EPS of $3.33 for Q4 2025, exceeding estimates of $3.10, but operating revenue was $49.31 billion, slightly below the estimated $49.81 billion, and medical membership was 45.23 million, short of the estimated 45.36 million [2] - Danaher Corporation achieved total sales of $6.84 billion in Q4 2025, surpassing the estimated $6.79 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $2.23, outperforming the $2.16 estimate [3] - ASML noted a normalization in sales to China, with expectations for China's sales share to decrease to approximately 20% in 2026 from 33% in 2025 due to export restrictions, despite recording record orders in Q4 2025 [5] Guidance and Outlook - Elevance Health's guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS is projected to be at least $25.50, which is below the analyst consensus of $26.99 [2] - Danaher's 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is set between $8.35 and $8.50, aligning with the analyst estimate of $8.46 [3] - ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance driven by strong global demand for AI-related chips [5] Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley upgraded RTX to a top pick and raised its price target from $215 to $235, indicating increased analyst optimism regarding the company's future performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - Elevance Health has forecasted that its profit for 2026 will be below Wall Street expectations due to anticipated higher medical costs continuing into the year [1] Group 1: Financial Forecast - The company expects that elevated medical costs will persist, impacting profitability [1] - The profit forecast for 2026 is notably lower than what analysts had anticipated [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing a pivotal moment with anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and earnings reports from major technology companies [1] - Premarket trading shows a mixed but generally upward trend, with S&P 500 Futures up 0.3% to 7,028.75 points and Nasdaq 100 Futures up 0.6% to 26,228.75 points, while Dow Jones Futures remain flat at 49,159.0 points [2] Semiconductor Industry - U.S. chip stocks are seeing notable gains, with Nvidia increasing by 1.7%, AMD rising by 1.4%, and Intel climbing 4.6%, reflecting strong investor confidence in AI and advanced computing [3] Major Market Indexes - The S&P 500 Index closed at a record high of 6,978.60 points, a 0.41% increase, driven by strength in chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks, particularly Micron Technology, which announced a $24 billion investment in Singapore [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,003.41 points, down 0.83%, primarily due to weakness in the healthcare sector, with UnitedHealth Group forecasting a revenue decline for 2026 [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.91% at 23,817.10 points, reaching a 2.75-month high, with nearly 30% year-over-year growth attributed to AI advancements [6] Upcoming Market Events - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its key interest rate steady within the 3.5%-3.75% target range, following three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, with a focus on the labor market and consumer spending [7] - Major earnings reports are anticipated from tech giants Meta Platforms and Microsoft, which will provide insights into the technology sector's health and AI investments [13] Company News - Infosys announced a strategic AI-focused collaboration, indicating ongoing investment in AI solutions [14] - Boeing's CEO outlined a turnaround plan after six consecutive annual losses, addressing operational challenges [14] - HSBC is scaling back its M&A and equities businesses in Europe, the UK, and the Americas to focus on Asian operations [14] - JetBlue Airways reported a significant Q4 loss and provided weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, raising concerns about profitability [14] - RTX Corporation delivered higher-than-expected Q4 results, showcasing strong growth across its business segments [14]

CHONGQING, CHINA - JANUARY 22: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), an American multinational healthcare company providing health insurance services and healthcare solutions through its UnitedHealthcare and Optum businesses, in front of a screen showing the company's latest stock market chart on January 22, 2026, in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)Getty ImagesUnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) announced its Q4 2025 earnings ...

Core Insights - Elevance Health reported fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, showing disciplined execution in a dynamic environment and a focus on advancing affordability and healthcare accessibility for members [2][4]. Financial Performance - Operating revenue for Q4 2025 was $49.3 billion, a 10% increase from Q4 2024, while total operating revenue for 2025 reached $197.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year [4][11]. - The operating gain for Q4 2025 was $0.3 billion, with an adjusted operating gain of $0.4 billion, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [4][12]. - The benefit expense ratio increased to 93.5% in Q4 2025, up 110 basis points from the prior year, driven by higher medical costs [5][25]. Segment Performance - The Health Benefits segment generated $41.8 billion in operating revenue for Q4 2025, an 11% increase compared to Q4 2024, with a full year revenue of $167.1 billion, also up 11% [10][11]. - Carelon segment reported operating revenue of $18.7 billion in Q4 2025, a significant increase of 27% year-over-year, driven by growth in CarelonRx and Carelon Services [15][29]. Membership Metrics - Medical membership totaled approximately 45.2 million as of December 31, 2025, a decrease of 0.5 million or 1% year-over-year, primarily due to attrition in the Medicaid business [13][22]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Operating cash flow for 2025 was $4.3 billion, approximately 0.8 times GAAP net income, with cash and investments at the parent company totaling $2.6 billion as of December 31, 2025 [8][26]. - The company repurchased 1.4 million shares for $471 million in Q4 2025 and declared a quarterly dividend of $1.71 per share, totaling $377 million in cash distribution [9][17].

Core Insights - Several U.S. politicians sold UnitedHealth stock shortly before a significant market crash on January 27, 2026, raising concerns about the timing of these transactions [1][6][10] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Impact - UnitedHealth experienced a dramatic loss of approximately 19% in a single trading session, closing at $282.70, which contributed to a nearly 50% decline in its stock value over the past year [2][9] - The company's market capitalization was significantly affected, erasing tens of billions of dollars and dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average [1] Group 2: Revenue Guidance and Financial Concerns - UnitedHealth's revenue guidance for 2026 was projected at about $439 billion, falling short of Wall Street estimates of $454 to $456 billion, which contributed to the stock's decline [9] - Rising medical costs and weaker earnings, along with proposed Medicare Advantage payment increases of only 0.09% for 2027, further exacerbated the situation [9] Group 3: Congressional Stock Transactions - Notable transactions included Rep. Kevin Hern selling UnitedHealth shares valued between $250,001 and $500,000 on December 23, 2025, just weeks before the stock's plunge [3][6] - Rep. Julie Johnson sold shares twice in November and December 2025, with each sale ranging from $1,001 to $15,000, occurring while the stock was still perceived as a defensive play [7] - Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold shares on November 12, 2025, and later purchased shares on December 19, 2025, shortly before the company's outlook worsened [8]

This story was originally published on Healthcare Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Healthcare Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Elevance became the second major insurer to predict declining revenue in 2026 on Wednesday, as for-profit payers continue to shave off members to try and recover margins. The Indianapolis-based insurer estimated its operating revenue will drop by a low-single digit percentage next year. The guidance comes one day after UnitedHealth forecast an ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry has made a strategic investment shift from UnitedHealth Group to Molina Healthcare, betting on Molina's resilience in the face of regulatory challenges in the healthcare sector [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Burry liquidated his stake in UnitedHealth Group in Q3 2025 and heavily invested in Molina Healthcare [1]. - Molina's stock experienced an 8% drop, but it performed better than major competitors like UnitedHealth and Humana, which saw declines of 19% and 21% respectively [2][6]. - Burry's investment in Molina is characterized as a contrarian play, with him labeling it a "generational buy" [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Approximately 75% of Molina's revenue is derived from Medicaid, which has allowed the company to maintain profitability despite competitors facing losses in similar contracts [4]. - Molina has demonstrated disciplined operations and conservative accounting practices, contributing to its financial stability [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Burry's exit from UnitedHealth occurred just before a significant 20% drop in its stock price, indicating timely decision-making [7]. - Molina's stock broke above its 100-day moving average and entered a winning streak, surging over 13% in early January [7]. - Burry has suggested that Molina could be an attractive acquisition target, indicating a strong potential for long-term growth [7].

Market Overview - The NASDAQ 100 has seen a fifth consecutive day of gains, rising approximately 1% [1] - Despite the rally, a majority of stocks are in the red, indicating a narrowing of the rally's breadth [2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has decreased by about 0.7%, reflecting a trend of lower dollar value amidst rising equity prices [1][2] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year bond yield in the U.S. is approaching its highest levels in a decade, which is attracting long-term investors [4] - Bond funds are starting to show a steeper curve, indicating renewed interest from portfolio managers [5] - Current market conditions suggest a Goldilocks economic scenario, with expectations for continued growth but uncertainty about future pricing [6] Currency and Inflation Trends - The U.S. dollar's softness is perceived as a potential manipulation by the government, which may welcome a weaker dollar [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's actions, including replacing Treasury bills with reserves, contribute to a narrative of a weaker dollar and inflationary pressures [9] Investment Opportunities - U.S. investors are finding attractive yields in international markets, particularly in countries like New Zealand and Australia, where bond yields are higher than U.S. credit [11] - The luxury goods market is experiencing mixed results, with watches and jewelry showing growth while fashion and spirits face challenges [41][43] Company-Specific Developments - Starbucks is expected to report earnings soon, with a focus on U.S. transaction growth and long-term guidance [30][31] - LVMH's luxury fashion division is struggling, with a noted decline in organic sales growth, particularly in fashion and spirits [41][48] - The company is diversifying its portfolio, with growth in watches and jewelry, indicating a shift in consumer spending behavior [43][44]

Market Performance - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened positively, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time closing high of 6978, up by +0.41% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -408.99 points, or -0.83%, primarily due to a -19% loss in UnitedHealth (UNH) following mixed Q4 results [1] Economic Reports - The Case-Shiller Home Prices for November showed a slight improvement, with a +1.4% increase, and house prices rose +0.6% month over month and +1.9% year over year, although these figures lag behind the +2.7% inflation rate [2] - Consumer Confidence for January dropped significantly to 84.5, down nearly 10 points from a revised December figure of 94.2, indicating levels typically associated with an impending recession [4][5] Company Earnings - Texas Instruments (TXN) reported Q4 earnings of $1.27 per share, missing estimates by 3 cents, with revenues of $4.42 billion also falling short of expectations [6] - F5 (FFIV) exceeded earnings expectations with $4.45 per share on revenues of $822 million, leading to a +13% increase in after-hours trading [7] - Seagate Technologies (STX) reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $3.19 per share on revenues of $2.83 billion, surpassing estimates, although shares fell -1.3% after a significant year-to-date increase of nearly +35% [9]