ab 3 July 2025 Global Research First Read We think investors may have overly priced in potential price upside from anti-involution initiates, while overlooking the structural demand weakness and obstacles to industry consolidation. We maintain our cautious view on the China cement sector. Equities China Building Materials China Cement Sector Expert call takeaway: "lie flat" no good for long- term consolidation No new policy We hosted a call with Digital Cement analyst, Ms. Xiaoliang Wang, to dive into the t ...

Group 1 - The company is focused on achieving its mid-year targets by enhancing production quality, accelerating project construction, and improving transformation efficiency [1] - Sichuan Dazhou Conch Cement has developed specialized cements and is experiencing stable profit growth by seizing market opportunities [2] - Jiangxi Xinyu Fenyi Conch Cement has seen significant increases in clinker production, cement and aggregate sales, and profits due to its integrated operational advantages [2] Group 2 - Jiangsu Taicang Conch Cement has optimized its palletized bagged cement robot dispatch line, resulting in a 53% year-on-year increase in dispatch volume from January to May [2] - Conch Cement in Indonesia has implemented energy-saving measures, achieving cost savings of over 10 million yuan and significantly reducing comprehensive costs [2] - Hainan Changjiang Conch Plastic Company is transitioning to green packaging in response to new national standards, exporting 27 million packaging bags worth 35 million yuan from January to May [5] Group 3 - Guangdong Yingde Conch Cement is advancing its 2 million ton aggregate project despite rainy season challenges, with construction moving to equipment debugging [7] - The Zhaoqing project in Guangdong is nearing completion and will contribute positively to local economic development [7]

Core Viewpoint - FLSmidth has entered into a share purchase agreement to sell its subsidiary owning land and buildings in Valby, Denmark, marking a significant transition as the company prepares to relocate its headquarters [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The expected net cash proceeds from the sale are approximately DKK 730 million, to be received in full upon closing of the transaction, anticipated at the end of Q1 2026 [2]. - The expected accounting gain from the transaction is around DKK 690 million [2]. - The transaction is subject to approval by the Danish Consumer and Competition Authority [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The net cash proceeds will be allocated according to the company's general capital allocation priorities and for general corporate purposes [3]. - The transaction does not alter FLSmidth's previously communicated financial guidance for the full year 2025 [3]. Group 3: Company Background - FLSmidth has been based in Valby, Copenhagen since 1899, with its current headquarters established in 1956 [1]. - The company plans to relocate to a new corporate headquarters at Havneholmen in Copenhagen, scheduled for late 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Core Insights - AnorTech Inc. has successfully completed a phase of its R&D program focused on sustainable cement products using anorthosite from the Gronne Bjerg Project in Greenland [1][2] - The company aims to commercialize three high-potential product lines, significantly reducing CO2 emissions compared to traditional cement production [2][5] R&D Program Highlights - The R&D program was conducted by the Danish Technological Institute, utilizing 100% anorthosite mixed with phosphoric acid to create materials for various applications [2] - AnorTech's process eliminates approximately 90% of CO2 emissions compared to Ordinary Portland Cement, which emits about 0.9 tonnes of CO2 per tonne produced [2] Market Potential - The global refractory cement market was valued at USD 22.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7%, reaching an estimated USD 37.7 billion by 2034 [4] - AnorTech is particularly focused on the high-value refractory cement market and is working towards product certification [5] Product Development - Successful tests showed that anorthosite mortar prisms maintained structural integrity after multiple heating cycles at 1,200 °C, with post-treatment strength exceeding 25.0 MPa [8] - Over 20 formulations were tested for optimal printability and structural buildability, confirming proof of concept for 3D printing applications [8] Strategic Partnerships and Financial Position - AnorTech is pursuing partnerships with leading industrial groups to accelerate the commercialization of its technologies [10] - The company has over $2.3 million in working capital, indicating a strong financial position to support ongoing projects [10]

据土耳其反垄断机构的一份声明表示，在对艾登省预拌混凝土和水泥生产领域的一些公司进行的调查 中，Cimentas Izmir、Batibeton、Ozturk Ticaret 和 Solen Cimento四家企业因违法共被罚款约7600万里 拉。 ...

Group 1 - Cementos Pacasmayo (NYSE: CPAC) reported positive Q1 2025 results, driven by increased demand from consumer self-construction and infrastructure projects [1] - The company experienced higher capacity utilization during the quarter, indicating operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - The focus of the analysis is on long-term operational aspects and earnings power of companies rather than market-driven dynamics [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes holding companies for the long term, with a preference for providing information that aids future investors [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the basic materials sector, including Angang-H, Baosteel, Conch-A, and Zijin-A, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks with potential upside ranging from 22% to 51% [10]. Core Insights - The feedback from producers as of mid-May suggests that end-user order books were flat month-over-month (MoM), which is softer than past seasonal trends. Infrastructure recovery has paused, reflected in weak cement shipments and a lack of funding for new projects [1][2]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 12-14% lower year-over-year (YoY), while demand for copper has increased by 9% YoY. The demand for flat steel and aluminum is 1-3% lower YoY [1]. - The report highlights that while the supply chain is partially replacing US-bound shipments with production from other countries, the reduction in Chinese metal demand is less severe than initially feared [1]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand Snapshots - The downstream order book trend was mostly stable MoM in May, with 25% of respondents indicating a pickup in the downstream sectors and 31% indicating a lower trend [2][3]. Steel Production - Steel production cuts are in preparation, and rush orders for exports are re-emerging. The report suggests that steel-making raw materials could potentially drop to sub US$80-90 per ton if production cuts are implemented [9]. Cement Market - The cement market has experienced a sudden deterioration, with current demand showing significant declines [9]. Aluminium and Copper - The report notes a disruption in Guinea bauxite supply affecting alumina, while copper demand remains more resilient than expected [9]. Coal Market - The coal market is characterized by very weak demand and pricing, indicating challenges for companies in this sector [9]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is facing a rising surplus, which may impact pricing and demand dynamics [9]. Paper Packaging - Improving shipment trends are noted in the paper packaging sector, driven by upcoming online shopping festivals and lower US-China tariffs [9].

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various companies in the basic materials sector, with specific recommendations such as "Buy" for companies like Angang-H and Conch-H, while others like Maanshan-A and Chinacoal-H are rated as "Sell" [10]. Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the basic materials sector is that current demand is less concerning than previously anticipated, with a notable deceleration in local government special refinancing bond issuance impacting infrastructure recovery [1]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 12-14% lower year-on-year, while copper demand has increased by 9% [1]. - The downstream order book trend has remained mostly stable month-on-month, with 31% of respondents indicating a lower trend in May for basic materials [2][3]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand Snapshots - Infrastructure recovery has paused due to a lack of funding for new projects, leading to weak cement shipments [1]. - The demand for construction materials is showing signs of weakness, particularly in cement and construction steel, while copper demand remains resilient [1]. Steel Production - Steel production cuts are in preparation, with a potential reduction in prices if these cuts are implemented [1]. - The report notes that rush orders following the reduction of US-China tariffs were limited, primarily driven by Southeast Asia [1]. Commodity Prices - The pricing for steel and cement has remained stable, while prices for aluminum and copper have improved, contrasting with the softening of coal and lithium prices [1]. Specific Company Insights - Angang-H is rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 2.40, indicating a potential upside of 45% [10]. - Conch-H is also rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 29.00, reflecting a 37% upside potential [10]. - Companies like Maanshan-A and Chinacoal-H are facing downward pressure, rated as "Sell" with target prices significantly lower than current prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 3rd SINOMA Cement Green & Intelligent Summit emphasized the importance of green and low-carbon development in the cement industry, showcasing SINOMA's commitment to innovation and collaboration for sustainable growth [1][3][9]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit took place in Hefei on May 16, 2025, attracting over 580 industry leaders and experts from 49 countries [1]. - The event facilitated discussions on digital design, intelligent management, and industrial transformation, aiming to advance global cement industry innovation [3]. Group 2: Keynote Highlights - Zhou Yuxian, Chairman of China National Building Material Group (CNBM), delivered a keynote speech focusing on innovation and sustainability in the materials industry, highlighting CNBM's advancements in high-performance materials and smart technologies [4]. - Zhou proposed new collaboration models, including strategic partnerships and joint R&D, to enhance global market opportunities [4]. Group 3: International Perspectives - Khamis Mussa Omar, Tanzanian Ambassador to China, noted that CNBM's vision aligns with Tanzania's sustainable industrial development goals, praising SINOMA's contributions to modern cement plants in Tanzania [5]. - Iven Zyuulu, Zambian Ambassador to China, emphasized the importance of green development and clean technologies for the cement industry's sustainable growth, acknowledging SINOMA's role in Zambia's industrial upgrading since 2006 [6][7]. Group 4: SINOMA's Commitment - SINOMA reaffirmed its dedication to green, intelligent, and sustainable development, aiming to collaborate with global partners to create a low-carbon ecosystem [8][9]. - The conference highlighted four major sci-tech innovation achievements of SINOMA for 2025, reinforcing its commitment to advancing global sustainability [8].