Group 1: Macau Gaming Sector Outlook - The total gaming revenue in Macau is expected to return to a normalized growth rate by 2026, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5%, reaching 88% of the 2019 level, primarily driven by mass market gaming [3] - Mass market gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 6% year-on-year, recovering to 126% of the 2019 level, supported by factors such as the recovery of overseas visitors, new property openings, and a diversified range of entertainment activities [3] - VIP gaming revenue is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year, recovering to 28% of the 2019 level, mainly due to high win rates in 2025 and the small scale of VIP business post-intermediary restructuring [3] Group 2: Industry Financial Projections - The EBITDA for the Macau gaming industry is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2026, recovering to 96% of the 2019 level, amid a competitive landscape with six operators maintaining rational competition [4] - The reinvestment rate in the industry is expected to stabilize, with EBITDA margins remaining at stable levels due to the current competitive dynamics [4] Group 3: Global Luxury Goods Market Outlook - The global personal luxury goods retail market is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2026, recovering from a flat performance in 2025, with the Greater China region projected to grow by 4% due to government consumption stimulus and the return of Chinese consumers [6][7] - Japan is also expected to see a 4% growth in luxury goods consumption in 2026, stabilizing after fluctuations in 2024 and 2025 [6] - North America is projected to continue stable growth at 3%, driven by increasing consumer demand for luxury goods and ongoing brand penetration in the market [6] Group 4: Pricing Strategy in Luxury Goods - The growth drivers in the luxury goods sector are shifting towards a rebalancing of product pricing structures, aimed at increasing foot traffic and sales [7] - Many brands are beginning to lower prices or introduce more entry-level products to attract customers, addressing previous issues of customer loss due to significant price increases from 2020 to 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent closure of the Emperor Palace Casino in Macau highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the gaming industry in the region, particularly for companies like Emperor Entertainment Hotel and its affiliates, amid financial difficulties and operational changes [1][3][10]. Group 1: Casino Operations - Emperor Palace Casino ceased operations on October 30, 2023, as part of a termination agreement between its parent company, Tianhao, and Aoyou [1][3][10]. - Aoyou Holdings had previously announced on June 9, 2023, that it would stop operating gaming activities in several satellite casinos, including Emperor Palace [5]. - New Macau International Development also announced that its satellite casinos would end operations by the end of this year [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Emperor Entertainment Hotel reported stable income from hotel and rental apartment operations for the fiscal years ending March 31, 2024, and 2025, with cash reserves of approximately HKD 526 million and no bank borrowings [11]. - Emperor International's total revenue for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached HKD 1.376 billion, a 41.5% increase year-on-year, but the loss increased from HKD 2.028 billion to HKD 4.84 billion, a 138% rise [14][16]. - As of March 31, 2023, Emperor International had HKD 16.6 billion in overdue bank loans, raising concerns about its ability to continue as a going concern [16]. Group 3: Debt Crisis and Asset Sales - The company is facing a significant debt crisis, with overdue loans potentially triggering immediate repayment demands [12][16]. - In response to financial pressures, Emperor Group has accelerated asset sales, including residential projects in Hong Kong and properties in Macau, totaling over HKD 2.23 billion in sales contracts [17][18]. - The company's financial troubles have roots in previous business failures, such as the closure of its cinema operations in late 2022, which led to bankruptcy due to high net liabilities [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent closure of the Emperor Palace Casino in Macau marks a significant shift in the operations of Emperor Entertainment Hotel and reflects broader challenges within the gaming industry in the region [2][4][6]. Group 1: Company Operations - Emperor Palace Casino ceased operations on October 30, 2023, at 23:59, following a termination agreement between its subsidiary, Tianhao, and AUB [4][6]. - Emperor Entertainment Hotel will continue its hotel business, including properties like the Emperor Jockey Club Hotel in Hong Kong, despite the closure of the casino [8]. - The company reported stable income from hotel and rental apartment operations for the fiscal years ending March 31, 2024, and 2025 [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Emperor International reported a total revenue of approximately HKD 1.375 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, a 41.5% increase from HKD 972.55 million in the previous year [12]. - However, the company also faced significant losses, with a net loss attributable to shareholders increasing from HKD 2.091 billion to HKD 2.321 billion, marking a 10.9% increase [12]. - As of March 31, 2023, Emperor International had HKD 16.6 billion in overdue bank loans, raising concerns about its ongoing viability [12][13]. Group 3: Market Context - The Emperor Palace Casino was once a prominent player in Macau's competitive gaming market, having opened in January 2006 and generating approximately HKD 1.2 billion in revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2007 [8]. - The closure of the casino is part of a broader trend, as AUB had previously announced its decision to cease operations at several satellite casinos, including the Emperor Palace [4][6]. - The financial struggles of Emperor International have led to significant stock price declines, with shares dropping over 15% following the announcement of its financial difficulties [13].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year in October 2025, outperforming market expectations [1] - The report indicates that MGM China (02282) is likely to outperform the market index in the next 60 days, with a probability exceeding 80% [1] - MGM China's market share increase in October is expected to boost its EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 18 for MGM China and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year in October 2025, outperforming market expectations, which is likely to positively impact MGM China Holdings Limited's stock performance in the next 60 days, with an estimated probability exceeding 80% [1] Company Summary - MGM China's market share has improved in October, contributing to a positive outlook for its EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 18 for MGM China and maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's technical research report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to increase by 16% year-on-year in October 2025, outperforming market expectations, which is likely to positively impact MGM China’s stock performance in the next 60 days with a probability exceeding 80% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - MGM China's market share increase in October is expected to boost its EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 18 for MGM China, with a rating of "Overweight" [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's total gaming revenue for October reached 24 billion MOP, marking a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 32%, representing the strongest gaming performance in six years [1] - The recovery of mass and VIP gaming revenues has returned to approximately 125% and 35% of pre-pandemic levels, respectively [1] - Despite a lackluster performance during the Golden Week, October's gaming revenue exceeded market expectations by 11% to 12% [1] Revenue Breakdown - VIP and high-end mass gaming segments drove VIP business growth of 40% to 45%, while mass gaming grew by 12% to 13% [1] - The outlook for November suggests a more challenging base compared to October, with growth expected to slow to 8% to 10% [1] - Starting in December, the base will become more favorable, with anticipated gaming revenue growth accelerating to 15% to 17%, and at least low double-digit growth expected in the first quarter of next year [1] Stock Recommendations - The company is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) in the short term due to attractive valuation and high leverage [1] - In the medium term, Sands China (01928) is favored as there is an opportunity to increase dividends in February next year, with expectations of continued market share expansion in Q4 of this year [1] - Long-term prospects are positive for Galaxy Entertainment (00027), which combines value advantages with long-term growth potential [1] - All mentioned stocks are rated "Buy" with target prices set at HKD 8, HKD 24.5, and HKD 48.5, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's total gaming revenue for October reached 24 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 32%, marking the strongest gaming performance in six years, exceeding market expectations by 11% to 12% [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The bank anticipates that the growth rate may slow to 8% to 10% in November due to a tougher comparison base compared to October [1] - Wynn Macau is viewed positively in the short term due to attractive valuation and high leverage [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - Sands China is favored in the mid-term as there is an opportunity to increase dividends in February next year, and it is expected to continue expanding market share in Q4 of this year [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Galaxy Entertainment is seen as a long-term investment opportunity due to its value advantage and long-term growth potential [1] - All mentioned stocks are rated as "Overweight" with target prices set at HKD 8, HKD 24.5, and HKD 48.5 respectively [1]

| | 2025年及2024年每月幸運博彩毛收入 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月份毛收入 | | | 累計毛收入 | | | | 2025年 | 2024年 | 變動率 | 2025年 | 2024年 | 變動率 | | 一月份 | 18,254 | 19,337 | -5.6% | 18,254 | 19,337 | -5.6% | | 二月份 | 19.744 | 18.486 | +6.8% | 37,998 | 37.823 | +0.5% | | 三月份 | 19,659 | 19,503 | +0.8% | 57,657 | 57,326 | +0.6% | | 四月份 | 18.858 | 18,545 | +1.7% | 76,514 | 75.872 | +0.8% | | 五月份 | 21.193 | 20.188 | +5.0% | 97,707 | 96,059 | +1.7% | | 六月份 | 21.064 | 17.694 | +19.0% | 118,771 | 113.753 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the gaming industry in Macau, expecting high single-digit growth in gaming gross revenue (GGR) for 2025 [14][15]. Core Insights - In October 2025, Macau's GGR reached MOP 24.086 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.9% and a month-on-month increase of 31.7%, recovering to 91.1% of the 2019 level [14][15]. - The average daily GGR in October was MOP 777 million, up 27.4% from September's MOP 610 million, representing the highest level since the pandemic [14][15]. - The resilience of the industry was attributed to the peak Golden Week, NBA events, and concerts, despite the impact of a typhoon [14][15]. - Cumulative GGR for the first ten months of 2025 reached MOP 205.427 billion, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth and 83.3% of the 2019 level [14][15]. - Upcoming events in November, including the National Games and various concerts, are expected to further boost tourist arrivals and GGR [14][15]. Summary by Sections Monthly GGR and Year-on-Year Growth - October's GGR growth was nearly 16% year-on-year, with a significant recovery trend observed [14][15]. - The daily average GGR for October was the highest post-pandemic, indicating strong market recovery [14][15]. Visitor Statistics - In September 2025, the number of inbound visitors to Macau was 2.78 million, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, fully recovering to 100.4% of the 2019 level [15]. - Cumulative inbound visitors for the first nine months of 2025 reached 29.67 million, up 14.5% year-on-year [15]. Hotel Occupancy Rates - The hotel occupancy rate in Macau for September 2025 was 84.6%, showing a slight decline year-on-year but stable compared to 2019 levels [16]. - The average hotel occupancy rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 89.3%, reflecting a 3.8 percentage point increase year-on-year [16].