中金研究 我们对中国澳门博彩行业转向更为乐观。我们上调澳门博彩行业2025年总博彩收入预测，预计2025年总博彩收入同比增长7%， 恢复至2019年水平的 83%。其中：1）中场板块：我们预计2025年博彩收入同比增长7%，恢复至2019年水平的119%；2）贵宾板块：我们预计2025年博彩收入同比增速持 平，恢复至2019年水平的24%。 基于我们收入预测调整和再投资率上升，我们上调2025年EBITDA预测3%，预计2025年EBITDA同比增长9%，恢复至2019年水平的89%。 我们估计2Q25行业EBITDA同比增长6%（环比增长6%），达到20.98亿美元， 恢复至2Q19年水平的87%。我们认为，2Q25行业EBITDA的增长，可能 是由于2Q25总博彩收入表现强劲，但再投资率上升小幅抵消了2Q25总博彩收入的积极影响。 点击小程序查看报告原文 中国澳门正逐步变为以娱乐演出为核心的旅行目的地，或有助于吸引更多游客。 随着博彩公司在过去两年中逐步积累举办娱乐活动的相关经验，他们在 日程和项目安排方面可以做到更具针对性和多样化。我们认为，举办各种类型的非博彩娱乐活动可以：1）驱动客户多次前往中国澳门 ...

智通财经APP获悉，博彩股延续涨势，截至发稿，永利澳门(01128)涨4.55%，报6.21港元；澳博控股 (00880)涨2.16%，报2.84港元；金沙中国(01928)涨1.2%，报18.54港元；新濠国际发展(00200)涨1.01%， 报5.12港元。 消息面上，花旗发布研报称，根据行业消息来源，澳门7月前六天的博彩总收入可能已达到约43亿澳门 元。这意味着日均收入约7.17亿澳门元，较2025年6月(日均收入约7.02亿澳门元)高出约2%，或较2024年 7月平均水平(日均收入约6亿澳门元)激增约30%。花旗指，虽然澳门本月晚些时候将举办郭富城和林忆 莲的演唱会，但该行预计在张学友演唱会系列结束后，日均博彩收入将有所放缓。因此，该行保守地将 2025年7月的博彩收入预测从195亿澳门元上调至200亿澳门元。 摩根大通也表示，尽管张学友演唱会及夏季季节性因素对7月份的表现有所帮助，但这比6月份或5月份 博彩收入更强劲。报告指，即使假设本月余下时间博彩收入增长有所放缓，7月份的总博彩收入仍可望 取得双位数字的同比增长，并胜该行预测的高单位数增长。该行认为，澳门博彩收入已经连续三个月超 越季节性和市场预 ...

新濠影汇本季度大放异彩，净营收3.32亿美元，同比涨80%，EBITDA8070万美元，同比大涨265%，VIP1.55亿美元环 比涨80%，中场1.77亿美元同比增31%，非博彩收入为5100万美元；澳门新濠天地净营收为6.45亿美元，同比增2%， EBITDA为1.75亿美元，同比跌1%，VIP毛收入3.54亿美元，同比增19%，中场表现一般同比跌5%达3.48亿美元，非博 彩收入为7500万美元；新濠锋净营收为1.07亿美元，同比涨8%，EBITDA为510万美元，同比跌64%。 新濠影汇营收大涨源于VIP和中场双重发力，VIP方面公司在去年11月增加了33桌VIP赌桌后本季度毛收入迅速增长。 我们认为新濠影汇分流巴黎人源于规模效应和新濠影汇特色的电影主题，符合大众消费者寻找多样化娱乐方式的定 位，再加上巴黎人房间设计存在问题，因此新濠影汇会成为未来营收的主力。新濠VIP和高端中场服务独树一帜，对 于客户公关提供良好激励机制，让客户公关积极亲切地接触更多客户；此外，公司采用大数据积分分析方式，通过积 分分类顾客级别提供个性化的服务。我们认为多种举措会增加高端顾客对于新濠的粘性。 作者：天风海外 营收虽超 ...

作者：天风海外何翩翩团队 1. VIP和节前效应拉动，澳门9月GGR淡季不淡 澳门博彩局发布2017年9月总博彩收入为213.6亿澳门元，达16.1%的同比增长，高于市场预期的15%，今年前九个月博 彩GGR达到242亿美元，同比增长19%。9月对于澳门本属淡季，又因8月底台风'天鸽'及'帕卡'影响持续，市场对于9 月GGR的预期较低在13%-15%之间。我们认为本次GGR数据较超市场预期，主要原因在于：VIP业务表现不淡，我们 和上市公司交流发现，VIP土豪客户一般不用坐班，因此喜欢在非旺季错峰前往澳门，拉动9月整个VIP和高端中场的 增长。 新濠国际发展(200.HK)在8月31日公布业绩，在5月并表美股子公司新濠博亚后，上半年业绩符合预期，净收入201亿港元，同 比增长260%；EBITDA同比增长290%达47亿港元，EBITDA Margin为23.4%；公司目前持有现金117亿港元，短期负债17.8亿 港元，长期负债为340亿港元。中期公司派息0.022港元/股，股息率0.12%，但随着并表后股息率于年报时候还会有所提升。 港股新濠国际发展(200.HK)的子公司新濠博亚(MLCO.US) 2Q1 ...

作者：天风海外何翩翩团队 1. VIP错峰拉动+中场稳健，澳门10月GGR超预期 目前公布Q3业绩的公司有金沙中国、永利澳门和澳博控股，新濠博亚、美高梅中国分别将在11月2日和11月8日公布业 绩，银河预计也在本周，请及时关注。 2. VIP结构改善，客户、中介和赌场更趋理性，VIP预计将温和发展 我们认为目前澳门VIP业务结构从以前的粗犷激进的模式向精细保守的模式转型，主要体现在客户、中介和赌场层 面。2013-2014年期间，客户结构主要以大宗商品和地产老板为主，这些客户短时间财富迅速积累，赌性更强但回头 率较低。同时，中介采用激进的手法（例如大额借贷等）招徕顾客，风险较大且持续性不强，赌场与中介合作条件比 较宽松给予更多VIP包间，因此积累了较多的泡沫。自2016年以来，可以看出VIP经营模式向精细和保守转型，客户结 构更多是通过实体经济、新兴产业和多样化投资实现财富积累的成功人士，他们赌性较弱、要求服务质量且回头率更 高。同时，中介更强调风险管理，建立数据库对客户进行信用评估以及审慎放贷，赌场也更为谨慎地选择比较大型的 中介进行合作，并立足长远的关系。目前来看，国内地产和大宗商品价格健康发展，经济发展 ...

证券研究报告 新濠国际发展 (200 HK) 澳门总 GGR 恢复超行业，市场份额和 EM 增长 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 09 日│中国香港 | 博彩 | 新濠国际子公司新濠博亚（MLCO US）于 5/8 盘前发布 25Q1 财报，收盘 股价涨约 4%，主要系：1）澳门博彩收入恢复超行业；2）据 Q1 电话会， 澳门业务 25Q1 份额为 15.7%，高于 24Q4 的 14.7%；3）24Q4 新濠影汇 翻新完成及降本增效见效，EBITDA Margin（EM）环比上升。25Q1 新濠博 亚总 GGR 12.99 亿美元（澳门业务总 GGR 11.31 亿美元，恢复至 19Q1 的 80%，超行业的 76%）。母公司新濠国际于 4/25 公告拟通过向现有股东按 二供一供股，筹集最多 7.8 亿港元，而新濠博亚表示年初至今已回购 1.65 亿美元 ADS。截至 25 年 3/31，新濠博亚可用流动性（包括现金和未动用的 循环信贷额度）为 32.7 亿美元，总债务 71.6 亿美元，Debt/Asset 为 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度 从品类到品质，从品质到品牌 核心观点 2024 年行业基本面继续承压，大多数行业及公司依旧受宏观影响 较大，但是已经涌现出一批逆势突围消费降级的企业。迎接这一 轮新消费浪潮，核心是实现品类到品质再到品牌的升级，酒店餐 饮中实现服务或产品独到特色、化妆品中体现产品矩阵及创新能 力、超市百货调改体现质价比、黄金珠宝抓住工艺与时尚结合等， 都是当下形成品牌的成功路径，预计 2025 年这样的企业能够更 加体现增长潜力和品牌估值。 摘要 2024 年以来，消费复苏仍然存在一定压力，除家电存在明显的海 外扩张逻辑，其他基于国内消费为主的消费板块仍然居后，从性 价比进入质价比，品类到品牌的过程中，品牌属性强的公司有望 持续跑赢。 免税板块：25Q1 离岛免税销售同比逐渐磨底企稳，海南封关政 策推进预计仍利好免税业态，市内免税政策望逐步培育，机场口 岸有所修复，海南地区龙头格局向好。免税业态品类丰富度及渠 道和供应链能力逐步强化，盈利能力望稳中向好。出入境旅游人 次持续恢复，关注销售边际趋势，建议持续关注：中国中免、王 府井。 旅游、博彩：年内旅游需求韧性仍较强，为促内需重要抓手，出 入境恢复弹性大 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $344 million for Q1 2025, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, which is the highest quarterly revenue since going public [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was $50 million, also reflecting a 7% year-over-year growth [5] - Capital expenditures for Q1 were $27 million, with a full-year CapEx forecast of $75 million to $80 million [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth was particularly strong in Illinois and Montana, with year-over-year increases of 48% in both states [5][6] - Revenue per location in core states showed varied performance: Illinois at $885 per day (up 2.9%), Montana at $610 per day (up 2.7%), and Nevada at $802 per day (down 5.3%) [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nebraska and Georgia experienced strong double-digit revenue growth, albeit from a smaller base [6] - The company has integrated operations in Louisiana, adding 96 locations and 614 terminals, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a decentralized gaming model, which allows for flexibility and efficient capital allocation based on local demand trends [9][10] - The acquisition of Kucan Gaming is expected to enhance the company's southeastern market presence and operational synergies [6][8] - The opening of Fairmont Park Casino is seen as a significant growth driver, with plans for further development in the future [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to scale proprietary products and services across its national footprint, enhancing financial performance and free cash flow [10][21] - The company remains optimistic about consumer demand and does not anticipate significant impacts from tariffs on its existing business [27][28] Other Important Information - The company announced the departure of CFO Matt Ellis, with Mark Phelan stepping in as acting CFO [14][15] - The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases, having repurchased 1 million shares at an average price of $10.34 per share [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on growth and CapEx - Management indicated that most CapEx prices are locked in, minimizing the impact of tariffs on existing business [27][28] Question: Weather impact on performance - Weather was reported as a neutral factor, with no significant negative impact on consumer behavior [30][31] Question: Strategy for underperforming locations - The company continues to prune underperforming locations to optimize profitability and reallocate resources to better-performing areas [35][36] Question: Update on Louisiana's performance - Early indications from Louisiana are positive, with ongoing remodeling and optimization efforts expected to enhance performance [38][39] Question: Timing and next steps for Phase two of Fairmont - Phase two will be informed by the operational performance of Phase one, with clarity expected after the racing season ends in October [47] Question: CapEx expectations for 2025 - The company reiterated its CapEx expectations of $75 million to $80 million for 2025, with a return to normalized levels of $40 million to $45 million thereafter [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $344 million for Q1 2025, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $50 million, also a 7% increase year-over-year [5][15] - As of March 31, the company had 27,180 terminals across 4,391 locations, reflecting year-over-year increases of 4.4% and 2.9% respectively [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth was particularly strong in Illinois and Montana, with year-over-year increases of 48% in Illinois and 48% in Montana [6] - Revenue per location in core states showed varied performance: Illinois at $885 per day (up 2.9%), Montana at $610 per day (up 2.7%), Nevada at $802 per day (down 5.3%), Louisiana at $972 per day, Nebraska at $263 per day (up 12.9%), and Georgia at $145 per day (up 59.3%) [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nebraska and Georgia continued to show strong double-digit revenue growth, while Nevada experienced a slight revenue decline due to the loss of a key customer [6] - The company has completed the integration of operations in Louisiana, which is expected to generate revenue growth opportunities [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive further synergies and performance improvements through the integration of acquired operations and the rollout of proprietary products across its national footprint [7][9] - The decentralized gaming model allows the company to efficiently allocate capital based on local demand trends, differentiating it from larger operators [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued strength of consumer demand and the company's ability to scale operations effectively [25][29] - The company remains focused on generating organic revenue growth with expanding margins and improved free cash flow [19] Other Important Information - The Fairmont Park Casino opened on April 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company [10] - The company announced the departure of CFO Matt Ellis, with Mark Phelan stepping in as acting CFO [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on growth and CapEx - Management indicated that most CapEx for the year has locked in prices, minimizing tariff impacts, and noted strong consumer demand [24][25] Question: Weather impact on performance - Weather was reported as a neutral factor, with no significant negative impact on consumer behavior [28][29] Question: Strategy for underperforming locations - The company continues to prune underperforming locations to optimize profitability and reallocate assets to better-performing situations [32][33] Question: Update on Louisiana's performance - Early trends in Louisiana are positive, with ongoing remodeling and optimization efforts expected to enhance performance [35][36] Question: Timing and next steps for Fairmont Phase two - Phase two will be informed by the operational performance of Phase one, with clarity expected after the racing season ends in October [45] Question: CapEx expectations for 2025 - The company reiterated its CapEx forecast of $75 million to $80 million for 2025, with expectations of returning to normalized levels of $40 million to $45 million thereafter [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - 澳博控股 reported a net profit of 31 million HKD in Q1 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 74 million HKD in Q1 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The company's gaming revenue increased to 6.949 billion HKD in Q1 2025, compared to 6.464 billion HKD in Q1 2024 [1] - The profit attributable to the owners of the company for Q1 2025 was 31 million HKD, a significant improvement from the loss of 74 million HKD in the same quarter of the previous year [1]