智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持金界控股(03918)"跑赢行业"评级，基于公司恢复全年30%的 派息率，维持目标价6.50港元，目标价对应8倍2026年EV/EBITDA，较目前股价存在 65%的上行空间。 基于公司当前运营效率，该行将公司2026年EBITDA预测下调10%至4.31亿美元，该行首次引入2027年 EBITDA预测5.15亿美元。公司目前股价对应4倍2026年EV/EBITDA。 金界控股公布2H25业绩，总收入为3.68亿美元(同比增长36%，环比增长8%，恢复至2H19水平的43%)， 其中包含3.59亿美元的总博彩收入(同比增长 38%，环比增长 8%，恢复至2H19水平的42%)。公司2H25 EBITDA为2.04亿美元(同比增长 39%，环比增长 2%，恢复至2H19水平的60%)，与该行预期的 2.05亿美 元基本一致。该行认为公司的业绩表现主要得益于业务量稳健恢复(尤其是3Q25)。 该行称，柬埔寨将对中国访客试行为期四个月的免签计划，以及新开的德崇国际机场的承载量具备提升 空间，预计中国赴柬埔寨访客数量的恢复有望进一步提速。此外，随着中国与柬埔寨加强两国之间的合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the company in 2H25 met expectations, showing a strong recovery in revenue and EBITDA, primarily driven by stable business volume growth, particularly in 3Q25 [1] Performance Review - The total revenue for 2H25 was $368 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 43% of the level in 2H19 [1] - Total gaming revenue was $359 million, with a year-on-year growth of 38% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8%, also recovering to 42% of the level in 2H19 [1] - EBITDA for 2H25 was $204 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, aligning closely with the expected $205 million [1] Development Trends - Cambodia's trial visa-free policy for Chinese visitors for four months is expected to drive steady growth in visitor numbers from China, with a projected 41.5% year-on-year increase in 2025, reaching 50.9% of 2019 levels [1] - The recovery of Chinese visitors to Cambodia is anticipated to accelerate due to the visa-free trial and the increased capacity of the newly opened Decho International Airport [1] - The collaboration between China and Cambodia is expected to strengthen, potentially extending the four-month visa-free policy [1] - In 4Q25, high-end VIP gaming revenue and mass gaming revenue decreased by 36% and 52% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, primarily due to conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia and the crackdown on telecom fraud in Cambodia [1] - With the alleviation of adverse factors, business volume is expected to rebound in 1Q26 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on current operational efficiency, the company's EBITDA forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 10% to $431 million, with a new EBITDA forecast for 2027 set at $515 million [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 4 times the 2026 EV/EBITDA [2] - The company maintains an "outperform" rating, with a target price of HKD 6.50, which corresponds to 8 times the 2026 EV/EBITDA, indicating a 65% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jinke Holdings reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the fiscal year 2025, with notable growth in various revenue streams and profitability metrics [3]. Financial Performance - Total gaming revenue reached $691.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [3]. - Net gaming revenue was $611 million, up 27.2% compared to the previous year [3]. - Overall revenue was approximately $710 million, reflecting a growth of 26.16% [3]. - Gross profit amounted to about $577 million, showing a 26.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Net profit was approximately $310 million, which is an increase of about 183% compared to the previous year [3]. - Basic earnings per share were 7.01 cents, with a final dividend of 1.09 cents per share, compared to no dividend in the same period last year [3]. Business Segments - The mid-market segment continued to grow, contributing 68.3% to total revenue [3]. - The high-end VIP market saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 51.6%, with daily turnover returning to pre-pandemic levels [3]. - Overall, the company experienced improvements across all business segments, particularly in the mid-market and VIP sectors [3]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to continue optimizing customer experience to promote sustainable business growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldin Financial Holdings (03918) reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the fiscal year 2025, leading to a stock price increase of over 7% following the announcement [1] Financial Performance - Total gaming revenue reached $691.6 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [1] - Net gaming revenue was $611 million, up 27.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Total revenue was approximately $710 million, reflecting a 26.16% increase year-on-year [1] - Gross profit amounted to about $577 million, showing a growth of 26.3% [1] - Net profit reached approximately $310 million, which is an increase of about 183% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 7.01 cents, with a final dividend of 1.09 cents per share, compared to no dividend in the same period last year [1] Business Segments - The management highlighted that the mass market segment continued to grow, contributing 68.3% to total revenue [1] - The high-end VIP market saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 51.6%, with daily turnover returning to pre-pandemic levels [1] - Overall, the company experienced improvements across all business segments, particularly in the mass and VIP markets [1] - The company plans to continue optimizing customer experience to promote sustainable business growth [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The expansion of the Wynn Palace is expected to enhance its appeal to high-end clientele, with a projected investment of USD 400-450 million for expansion and renovation projects [8][10] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 28.99 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 1.63 billion, down 49.0% year-on-year [6] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was USD 271 million, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, primarily due to low VIP win rates and increased operational costs [7] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upwards by 3.9% and 3.5% to HKD 31.31 billion and HKD 32.97 billion, respectively [10] - The estimated net profit for 2026 is projected to be HKD 3.52 billion, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [5] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 5.90, down from a previous estimate of HKD 7.20, based on a valuation of 6.8x 2026E EV/EBITDA [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance for the year 2025, indicating a strong recovery and operational efficiency in the gaming sector [1] Financial Performance - Total gaming revenue reached $691.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [1] - Net gaming revenue was $611 million, up by 27.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Total revenue approximated $710 million, reflecting a growth of 26.16% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit was about $577 million, showing a 26.3% increase from the prior year [1] - Net profit reached approximately $310 million, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of about 183% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 7.01 cents, with a final dividend of 1.09 cents per share [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The expansion of the Wynn Palace is expected to enhance its appeal to high-end clientele, with a projected investment of USD 400-450 million for expansion and renovation projects [8][10] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 28.99 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 1.63 billion, down 49.0% year-on-year [6][10] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was USD 271 million, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, primarily due to low VIP win rates and increased operational costs [7][10] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upwards by 3.9% and 3.5% to HKD 31.31 billion and HKD 32.97 billion, respectively [10] - The estimated EBITDA for 2026 and 2027 has been revised downwards by 3.6% and 4.1% to HKD 9.30 billion and HKD 9.82 billion, respectively [10] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 5.90, down from a previous estimate of HKD 7.20, based on a valuation of 6.8x 2026E EV/EBITDA [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that MGM China reported a significant increase in annual profits and operational metrics for the year ending December 31, 2025, indicating strong performance in the gaming sector [1] Group 2 - MGM China's annual profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 5.075 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.24% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA hit a record high of HKD 10 billion, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - Operating revenue increased to HKD 34.7875 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [1] - The overall gaming market share reached a historical high of 16.1%, compared to 15.8% the previous year [1] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.353 per share [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 28.17 billion for the year 2025, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA of HKD 3.20 billion, down 15.0% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of HKD 6.50 billion, a decline of 13.0% year-on-year and 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of HKD 670 million, down 32.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is undergoing a structural transition due to the closure of satellite gaming venues, which has impacted its gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, GGR was HKD 6.66 billion, down 11.6% year-on-year and 6.8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 66% of Q4 2019 levels [2] - The VIP segment generated HKD 590 million, down 19.6% year-on-year, while the mass market segment generated HKD 5.46 billion, down 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a loss of HKD 28 million for the EBITDA of the Grand Lisboa, with an EBITDA margin of -3.3% [2] Strategic Developments - The company has completed strategic acquisitions in the core area of the peninsula, including a HKD 529 million acquisition of a designated area in the Lisboa Hotel and a HKD 1.75 billion acquisition of the property at the Parisian Macao [3] - The transition period is expected to stabilize as the company reallocates resources and optimizes operations [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The EBITDA forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been revised down to HKD 4.073 billion and HKD 4.320 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 12% and 10% from previous estimates [5][13] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 2.54, corresponding to a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026 [5][14]

Industry Overview - The Macau gaming industry has been recovering since Q2 2025, with gross gaming revenue expected to increase by 9% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 85% of 2019 levels [1] - The new gaming law framework emphasizes the importance of mass market and non-gaming businesses, indicating a potential concentration of the industry towards leading players [1] - Visitor numbers to Macau have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with a projected 15% year-on-year increase in inbound travelers in 2025, reaching 102% of 2019 figures [1] - Growth in visitors is primarily driven by mainland China, particularly Guangdong Province, due to geographical advantages, relaxed visa policies, and improved transportation [1] - High-end consumption is recovering, supported by stock market gains and the appreciation of the Renminbi, positively impacting luxury goods sales and high-end hotel occupancy rates [1] Company Analysis: Galaxy Entertainment - Galaxy Entertainment is projected to hold a 19% market share in the gaming business in 2024, ranking second among the six licensed gaming operators in Macau [2] - The company has a favorable business structure, with mass market revenue accounting for 74% of its income in 2025 [1] - Galaxy Entertainment benefits from a unique concert advantage, with the largest indoor performance venue in Macau, capable of hosting 16,000 people, and plans to hold 350 events in 2025 to drive visitor traffic [1] - The company has fully implemented smart gaming tables to identify high-net-worth customers for targeted marketing [1] - Galaxy has a robust project pipeline, with the luxury hotel Capella set to preview in May 2025 and fully open in February 2026, along with upgrades to the StarWorld Hotel expected to complete in Q1 2027 [1] - The company maintains low debt levels and high cash reserves, with a net cash position of HKD 35 billion after liabilities, providing a solid foundation for potential dividend increases [2] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment are projected at HKD 516 billion, 563 billion, and 606 billion for 2026-2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 9.2%, and 7.6% respectively [2] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach HKD 150 billion, 163 billion, and 179 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 3.6%, 8.7%, and 9.2% [2] - The company is recognized as a leading player in the Macau gaming sector, with unique concert advantages, a rich project pipeline, and a strong balance sheet, leading to an "overweight" rating for investment [2]