Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 respectively for the same period [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - The company has been given a "in line with the market" rating, but there are warnings that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premiums may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025 to 2027, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "market perform" rating but warns that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's 2Q25 performance met market expectations, with net revenue of HKD 12.044 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was HKD 3.569 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with Bloomberg's expectation of HKD 3.540 billion [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 60% [1] Growth Drivers - The strong performance was attributed to the opening of the Capella hotel, which increased market share, and entertainment activities that boosted property visitation [1] - Cost control measures helped maintain stable daily operating costs [1] Management Insights - The management expects capital expenditure for 2025 to be HKD 7 billion, with HKD 3 billion spent in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to continue hosting large concerts and entertainment events in Macau, recognizing the sustainability and return potential of integrated resorts [1] Market Positioning - The high-end gaming segment continues to outperform the regular gaming segment, driven by the opening of Capella [1] - The management anticipates that the StarWorld Hotel will benefit from the demand for satellite casinos, which are expected to close by the end of 2025 [1] Investment Outlook - Due to the better-than-expected performance of Capella, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5% and 3% to HKD 14.524 billion and HKD 15.330 billion, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 6% to HKD 44.80, reflecting an 11% upside potential based on a 10x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa Capital Markets indicates that Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is expected to see a 7% quarter-on-quarter growth in normalized EBITDA for Q2 2025, with a slight increase in market share due to lower win rates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 58%, with management expecting a sustainable payout ratio of around 60% [1] - Daiwa has raised its EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 4% respectively [1] - The target price for the stock has been increased by 5%, from HKD 43 to HKD 45, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - In Q2 2025, Galaxy Entertainment's mass market share is estimated to grow by 0.8 percentage points to 22%, which investors perceive as moderate growth [1] - The management acknowledges the current intense market competition but does not expect further deterioration this year [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is anticipated to enhance reinvestment efficiency, with positive impacts already observed during its trial operation period [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its EBITDA forecast for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) for 2025 to 2027 by 0% to 1%, raising the target price from HKD 49.6 to HKD 50.1, reaffirming it as an industry favorite and maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of HKD 3.6 billion, an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with Goldman Sachs' expectations, primarily benefiting from an increase in VIP net win rate [1] - Excluding the impact of the VIP net win rate and increased contributions from the construction business, the gaming EBITDA rose 5% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2.9 billion [1] - The EBITDA margin is expected to remain around 28.1%, with growth in gaming volume offset by an increase in average daily operating expenses [1] Group 2: Market Share and Dividends - The company's total gaming gross revenue (GGR) market share increased by 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 20.5% [1] - The interim dividend increased by 40% year-on-year to HKD 0.7 per share, with a payout ratio of 58%, higher than last year's 50% and the historical average of 30%, as well as exceeding some peers' payout ratios of 40% to 50% [1] - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for Macau and the company's long-term prospects, indicating that future dividends could be sustainable, projecting an annual dividend of HKD 1.58 based on a 60% payout ratio, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.9% at the current price [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa Capital Markets indicates that Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is expected to see a 7% quarter-on-quarter growth in normalized EBITDA for Q2 2025, driven by a slight increase in market share despite lower win rates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 58%, with management expecting a sustainable payout ratio of around 60% [1] - Daiwa has raised its EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 4% respectively [1] - The target price for the stock has been increased by 5%, from HKD 43 to HKD 45, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - In Q2 2025, Galaxy Entertainment's mass market share is estimated to grow by 0.8 percentage points to 22%, which investors perceive as moderate growth [1] - The management acknowledges the current intense market competition but does not expect further deterioration this year [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is anticipated to enhance reinvestment efficiency, with positive impacts already observed during its trial operation period [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 3% to HKD 14.524 billion and HKD 15.330 billion respectively, due to better-than-expected performance from the Capella hotel [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Galaxy Entertainment reported 2Q25 net revenue of HKD 12.044 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of the 2Q19 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was HKD 3.569 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 82% of the 2Q19 level, aligning closely with market expectations of HKD 3.540 billion [2] Group 2: Management Insights - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 60%, and plans to maintain this payout ratio [3] - The high-end mass gaming segment continues to outperform the standard mass segment, driven by the opening of the Capella hotel, which has increased customer daily theoretical win and spending levels [3] - Management anticipates capital expenditures of HKD 7 billion for 2025, with HKD 3 billion spent in the first half of 2025, while maintaining daily operating costs at the same level as in 1Q25 despite the opening of the Capella hotel [3] - The company is focusing on transitioning the StarWorld Hotel towards mass gaming, emphasizing electronic gaming machines, with 100 out of 250 gaming tables relocated to the Galaxy Macau property [3] - Management expects the StarWorld Hotel to benefit from the retention demand of satellite casinos, which are set to close by the end of 2025 [3] - The company is interested in investing in a resort in Bangkok, Thailand, and will monitor potential changes in the external environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 3% to HKD 14.524 billion and HKD 15.330 billion respectively, due to better-than-expected performance from the Capella hotel [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Galaxy Entertainment reported 2Q25 net revenue of HKD 12.044 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of the 2Q19 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was HKD 3.569 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 82% of the 2Q19 level, aligning closely with market expectations of HKD 3.540 billion [2] Group 2: Management Insights - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 60%, and plans to maintain this payout ratio [3] - The high-end mass gaming segment continues to outperform the standard mass segment, driven by the opening of the Capella hotel, which has led to strong growth in customer daily theoretical win and spending levels [3] - Management anticipates capital expenditures of HKD 7 billion for 2025, with HKD 3 billion spent in the first half of 2025, while maintaining daily operating costs at the same level as in Q1 2025 [3] - The company is focused on hosting large concerts and entertainment events in Macau, recognizing the sustainability and return potential of integrated resorts [3]