高盛表示，注意到临近3月4日至11日举行的全国两会，博彩及旅游需求可能潜在受影响。业绩方面，高 盛微调了银娱2026至27财年的EBITDA预测，幅度小于1%，并将基于分类加总估值法，将12个月目标价 从54港元降至53.4港元。 高盛又指，虽然集团已达成其中期博彩总收益市场份额22%的目标，但鉴于第三期项目(如嘉佩乐酒店) 持续推进、星际酒店的翻新改造及银河澳门第四期项目从明年起分阶段开业，认为未来份额仍有进一步 增长的空间。该股目前估值不高，相当于2026财年预测企业价值倍数10倍。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，银河娱乐(00027)昨天(26日)公布截至去年12月底止全年业绩，其 中末季业绩如高盛预期般强劲，EBITDA按季增长29%至43亿港元，符合该行预期，并处于市场共识36 亿至43亿港元之上限。维持"买入"评级。 集团宣派末期股息每股0.8港元，相当于2025年下半年盈利派息比率的64%，较2025年上半年的58%、 2024财年的50%进一步提高。管理层表示，有意今后派发至少65%的盈利。高盛认为，集团具备充足的 财政能力进一步提高股息，或像金沙中国(01928)般采用渐进式股息政策， ...

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in December could increase by 17% to 22% year-on-year, with a total revenue estimate of MOP 213 billion to MOP 222 billion [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The average daily gaming revenue in Macau last week was MOP 700 million, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8% [1] - The VIP room win rate has returned to normal levels, with average daily revenue in the mass market increasing by 3% to 5% compared to November, and VIP room daily revenue growing by 2% to 5% [1] - The VIP room win rate is reported to be between 2.7% and 2.9%, which is lower than the over 3% recorded in November [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is identified as the top pick in the gaming sector, with a target price of HKD 57.5, rated "outperform" due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel by the end of this year is expected to enhance Galaxy's market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Investors are advised to reconsider Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282) due to their market share growth and attractive valuation levels, with target prices set at HKD 25.2 and HKD 22.6 respectively, both rated "outperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macao's average daily gaming revenue increased to 700 million Macanese Patacas last week, reflecting an 8% week-on-week rise, with VIP room win rates returning to normal levels [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue Projections - If the average daily gaming revenue remains between 660 million to 750 million Macanese Patacas for the rest of the month, total gaming revenue for December is projected to reach between 21.3 billion to 22.2 billion Macanese Patacas, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% to 22% [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - The preferred stock is Galaxy Entertainment, with a target price of 57.5 Hong Kong dollars and a rating of "Outperform," attributed to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply [1] - The Capella Hotel, expected to fully operate by the end of this year, is anticipated to enhance the company's market share in the high-end segment [1] Group 3: Other Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to reconsider Sands China and MGM China, given their market share growth and attractive valuation levels, with target prices set at 25.2 Hong Kong dollars and 22.6 Hong Kong dollars, respectively, both rated "Outperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International initiates coverage on Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the effectiveness of the company's mid-to-high-end strategy and its potential for growth through new developments and market share increases [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net income reached HKD 12.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter, with an overall adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has outpaced the industry average, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy - For H1 2025, the company declared a dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, which represents 58% of the earnings per share (EPS) for the period, indicating a robust and generous dividend policy [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.5% [3] Group 3: Betting and Win Rates - In Q3 2025, the company's betting amounts for VIP, mass market, and slot machines were HKD 65 billion, HKD 35.4 billion, and HKD 27.4 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 46%, 12%, and 3% respectively [4] - The overall win rate improved due to the adoption of smart tables and innovative gameplay, contributing to the growth of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) [4] Group 4: Market Share - The company's GGR for Q3 2025 was HKD 20.95 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, which is higher than the industry average growth of 12.5% [5] - The company's market share for Q3 2025 was calculated at 19.6%, with a cumulative market share of 19.4% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that Galaxy Entertainment's EBITDA for the third quarter was approximately HKD 3.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6%, aligning with the bank's and market expectations [1] Financial Performance - EBITDA, when adjusted for VIP room win rate impact, also recorded HKD 3.3 billion, consistent with expectations [1] - The operating expenses and reinvestment rate increased by 9% and 110 basis points quarter-on-quarter, respectively, due to the gradual ramp-up of operations at the Capella Hotel [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding construction business) remained around 27.5% [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment with a target price of HKD 46.9 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 respectively for the same period [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - The company has been given a "in line with the market" rating, but there are warnings that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premiums may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025 to 2027, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "market perform" rating but warns that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's 2Q25 performance met market expectations, with net revenue of HKD 12.044 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was HKD 3.569 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with Bloomberg's expectation of HKD 3.540 billion [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 60% [1] Growth Drivers - The strong performance was attributed to the opening of the Capella hotel, which increased market share, and entertainment activities that boosted property visitation [1] - Cost control measures helped maintain stable daily operating costs [1] Management Insights - The management expects capital expenditure for 2025 to be HKD 7 billion, with HKD 3 billion spent in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to continue hosting large concerts and entertainment events in Macau, recognizing the sustainability and return potential of integrated resorts [1] Market Positioning - The high-end gaming segment continues to outperform the regular gaming segment, driven by the opening of Capella [1] - The management anticipates that the StarWorld Hotel will benefit from the demand for satellite casinos, which are expected to close by the end of 2025 [1] Investment Outlook - Due to the better-than-expected performance of Capella, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5% and 3% to HKD 14.524 billion and HKD 15.330 billion, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 6% to HKD 44.80, reflecting an 11% upside potential based on a 10x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025 [2]