Core Viewpoint - Macquarie forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in December could increase by 17% to 22% year-on-year, with a total revenue estimate of MOP 213 billion to MOP 222 billion [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The average daily gaming revenue in Macau last week was MOP 700 million, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8% [1] - The VIP room win rate has returned to normal levels, with average daily revenue in the mass market increasing by 3% to 5% compared to November, and VIP room daily revenue growing by 2% to 5% [1] - The VIP room win rate is reported to be between 2.7% and 2.9%, which is lower than the over 3% recorded in November [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is identified as the top pick in the gaming sector, with a target price of HKD 57.5, rated "outperform" due to its strong property project reserves and ample hotel room supply [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel by the end of this year is expected to enhance Galaxy's market share in the high-end mass market [1] - Investors are advised to reconsider Sands China (01928) and MGM China (02282) due to their market share growth and attractive valuation levels, with target prices set at HKD 25.2 and HKD 22.6 respectively, both rated "outperform" [1]

麦格理发表研究报告指，数据显示澳门上周的日均博彩收入为7亿澳门元，按周上升8%，贵宾厅赢率已 回复正常水平。假设本月余下时间日均博彩收入维持介乎6.6亿至7.5亿澳门元，12月的博彩总收入将达 213亿至222亿澳门元，按年升17%至22%。 该行首选股份为银河娱乐，目标价57.5港元，评级"跑赢大市"，主要因其强劲的物业项目储备及充足的 酒店客房供应；预计今年底全面投入营运的嘉佩乐酒店，有望提升公司在高端中场的市场份额。另外， 该行亦建议投资者重新审视金沙中国及美高梅中国，考虑到两者的市场份额增长及具吸引力的估值水 平；目标价分别为25.2港元及22.6港元，均获"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International initiates coverage on Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the effectiveness of the company's mid-to-high-end strategy and its potential for growth through new developments and market share increases [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net income reached HKD 12.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter, with an overall adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has outpaced the industry average, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy - For H1 2025, the company declared a dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, which represents 58% of the earnings per share (EPS) for the period, indicating a robust and generous dividend policy [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.5% [3] Group 3: Betting and Win Rates - In Q3 2025, the company's betting amounts for VIP, mass market, and slot machines were HKD 65 billion, HKD 35.4 billion, and HKD 27.4 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 46%, 12%, and 3% respectively [4] - The overall win rate improved due to the adoption of smart tables and innovative gameplay, contributing to the growth of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) [4] Group 4: Market Share - The company's GGR for Q3 2025 was HKD 20.95 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, which is higher than the industry average growth of 12.5% [5] - The company's market share for Q3 2025 was calculated at 19.6%, with a cumulative market share of 19.4% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that Galaxy Entertainment's EBITDA for the third quarter was approximately HKD 3.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6%, aligning with the bank's and market expectations [1] Financial Performance - EBITDA, when adjusted for VIP room win rate impact, also recorded HKD 3.3 billion, consistent with expectations [1] - The operating expenses and reinvestment rate increased by 9% and 110 basis points quarter-on-quarter, respectively, due to the gradual ramp-up of operations at the Capella Hotel [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding construction business) remained around 27.5% [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment with a target price of HKD 46.9 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 respectively for the same period [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - The company has been given a "in line with the market" rating, but there are warnings that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premiums may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025 to 2027, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "market perform" rating but warns that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's 2Q25 performance met market expectations, with net revenue of HKD 12.044 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was HKD 3.569 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, aligning closely with Bloomberg's expectation of HKD 3.540 billion [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 60% [1] Growth Drivers - The strong performance was attributed to the opening of the Capella hotel, which increased market share, and entertainment activities that boosted property visitation [1] - Cost control measures helped maintain stable daily operating costs [1] Management Insights - The management expects capital expenditure for 2025 to be HKD 7 billion, with HKD 3 billion spent in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company plans to continue hosting large concerts and entertainment events in Macau, recognizing the sustainability and return potential of integrated resorts [1] Market Positioning - The high-end gaming segment continues to outperform the regular gaming segment, driven by the opening of Capella [1] - The management anticipates that the StarWorld Hotel will benefit from the demand for satellite casinos, which are expected to close by the end of 2025 [1] Investment Outlook - Due to the better-than-expected performance of Capella, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5% and 3% to HKD 14.524 billion and HKD 15.330 billion, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 6% to HKD 44.80, reflecting an 11% upside potential based on a 10x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa Capital Markets indicates that Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is expected to see a 7% quarter-on-quarter growth in normalized EBITDA for Q2 2025, with a slight increase in market share due to lower win rates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 58%, with management expecting a sustainable payout ratio of around 60% [1] - Daiwa has raised its EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 and 2026 by 5% and 4% respectively [1] - The target price for the stock has been increased by 5%, from HKD 43 to HKD 45, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - In Q2 2025, Galaxy Entertainment's mass market share is estimated to grow by 0.8 percentage points to 22%, which investors perceive as moderate growth [1] - The management acknowledges the current intense market competition but does not expect further deterioration this year [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is anticipated to enhance reinvestment efficiency, with positive impacts already observed during its trial operation period [1]