J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 05 July 2025 Japan Equity Strategy Last-minute tariff negotiations and Upper House election: What if reciprocal tariffs of 35% take effect? Japanese equities might see a spike in short-term volatility next week, depending on the outcome of US-Japan trade negotiations. With the July 9 negotiation deadline fast approaching, the market expects 8–10 countries to reach an agreement with the US, but if the US and Japan fail to reach a deal and reciprocal tariffs on Japan ar ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a pecking order for investment ratings: aluminum > lithium > steel > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - Major steel mills in Shanxi Province are mandated to reduce production by 10-30% year-on-year in 2025, resulting in an approximate 6 million tons reduction, which is about 10% year-on-year for the entire province [1] - Shanxi Province accounted for approximately 6% of China's steel market share in 2024 [1] - The supply reform in the steel industry is progressing in a tailored manner rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [1] - The production cuts are expected to support steel prices in the second half of 2025 [1] Summary by Sections - **Production Cuts**: Steel mills in Shanxi Province are required to cut production by 10-30% YoY, leading to a total reduction of around 6 million tons [1] - **Market Share**: Shanxi Province held about 6% of the steel market share in China during 2024 [1] - **Supply Reform**: The ongoing supply reform is being implemented progressively and is not uniform across all mills [1] - **Price Support**: Anticipated production cuts are expected to bolster steel prices in the latter half of 2025 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Metals & Mining** industry, particularly the **Chinese steel production** and its implications on global markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Chinese Steel Production Cuts**: Chinese officials have mandated the closure of up to **50 million tonnes per annum (mtpa)** of steel capacity to address structural overcapacity issues, which is expected to support finished steel prices globally [1][2]. - **Impact on Exports**: Despite a **0.6% year-over-year (y/y)** increase in steel production in Q1, domestic demand declined by over **1%**. Finished steel exports rose by **9% y/y** through May, indicating a strategy to shift overproduction to foreign markets [2]. - **Trade Barriers**: The steel industry faces challenges from rising trade barriers, with Baowu Steel projecting a **15 million tonne** decline in exports by 2025 due to trade measures, which could lead to a significant downturn in the second half of the year [2]. - **Domestic Demand Decline**: Baowu anticipates a **2% potential decline** in domestic steel demand this year, suggesting that even with stimulus measures, production and demand are likely to decrease [2]. - **Peak Steel**: The analysis suggests that China has reached "peak steel," indicating a potential long-term decline in production levels [2]. Implications for Raw Material Markets - **Seaborne Demand**: The cuts in steel production may initially reduce demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal, as China accounts for approximately **70%** and **20%** of seaborne demand in these markets, respectively [3]. - **Global Steel Production**: Countries like India, South Korea, and Vietnam may benefit from reduced Chinese exports, potentially leading to increased steel production and higher global steel prices [3]. - **Price Recovery**: Lower Chinese steel exports could catalyze a recovery in seaborne metallurgical coal demand and prices, as well as high-grade iron ore prices [4]. Market Outlook - **Neutral Stance**: The outlook for iron ore and metallurgical coal markets is neutral in the near term, with expectations of adequate supply. However, lower Chinese exports could positively impact demand and prices for these commodities [4]. - **Preferred Miners**: Vale and Glencore are identified as preferred major global miners for exposure to potential price upside in metallurgical coal and high-grade iron ore [4]. Additional Important Information - **Financial Metrics**: The conference call includes various financial metrics and forecasts for commodities, including price forecasts for iron ore and coal, as well as company-specific financial data for Vale and Glencore [6][10]. - **Analyst Ratings**: The call features analyst ratings and price targets for companies within the sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for both Vale and Glencore, with specific price targets set for their stocks [8][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Metals & Mining industry, particularly in relation to Chinese steel production and its global impact.

Thyssenkrupp Steel and IG Metall reached a restructuring agreement that will allow planned job cuts to proceed without forced layoffs through 2030 https://t.co/JNVdGa0j2y ...

Investment Rating - The industry view for Greater China Materials is rated as Attractive [3] Core Insights - Copper, aluminum, and gold are expected to remain at elevated levels, while supply cuts in steel and cement are anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley's commodity forecasts indicate a divergence from consensus, with higher price expectations for aluminum and copper compared to market consensus [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Commodity Price Forecasts - Aluminum price forecast for 2H2025 is $2,700 per ton, which is 10% higher than consensus [7] - Copper price forecast for 2H2025 is $9,825 per ton, 5% above consensus [7] - Gold price forecast for 2H2025 is $3,650 per ounce, 13% higher than consensus [7] Steel and Cement Demand - Steel demand drivers include residential property (14%), infrastructure (17%), and machinery (30%) [13] - Anticipated supply cuts in steel and cement are expected to impact market dynamics in the second half of the year [1] Consumption Indices - The China Steel Consumption Index shows a year-on-year change indicating fluctuations in demand across various sectors [14] - The China Copper Consumption Index reflects significant contributions from power (47%) and white goods (15%) sectors [17][19] - The China Aluminum Consumption Index indicates property and passenger vehicle sectors as major demand drivers [23] Infrastructure Spending - Infrastructure spending has increased, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in May 2025 [30] - Monthly total issuance of local government special bonds shows a trend towards increased funding for infrastructure projects [37] Key Companies Under Coverage - Companies covered include Baosteel, Jiangxi Copper, Zijin, and China Hongqiao among others in the materials sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's recent tariff increases are expected to significantly impact consumer prices, similar to the effects observed during the 2018-2019 trade war [2][5] - Preliminary data indicates that the effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 7.2 percentage points (pp) as of May, with expectations of a total increase to about 14pp with additional sectoral tariffs [14][29] - The analysis suggests that foreign exporters have absorbed about 20% of the tariff costs, while the remaining costs are split between US businesses and consumers [29][34] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation and Effects - Tariff hikes began in early February, with significant increases taking effect in April, leading to delayed impacts on consumer prices due to shipping and payment delays [2][8][10] - The effective tariff rate is estimated to have risen by 9pp, with customs revenue indicating a lower increase of 7.2pp due to various delays [14][18] Cost Absorption and Price Changes - Price data through May shows that a 1pp increase in product-level tariff rates has led to a 0.2% decline in import prices, primarily driven by China [21][27] - The share of tariff costs passed onto consumers increased from 0% in the first month to 10% after two months, and to 40% after three months [3][46] Core PCE Inflation Forecast - Tariffs have raised core PCE prices by approximately 6 basis points (bp) this year, suggesting that without tariffs, the current core PCE inflation rate of 2.7% would be 2.6% [52] - The report maintains an unchanged inflation forecast, expecting tariff effects to boost core PCE inflation by about 1pp this year, leading to a year-over-year rate of around 3.3% in December [53][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on inflation forecasts while awaiting further policy actions [3][19]. Core Insights - The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, marking a surprise after four consecutive negative readings, which may indicate potential reflation in China [3][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation deepened unexpectedly, highlighting a divergence in price trends among different sectors, particularly between auto and steel prices [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms (SSR2.0) and the role of demand in shaping inflation expectations [19]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI reading for June was +0.0% YoY, compared to a prior reading of -0.1% YoY, with a sequential change of -0.1% MoM [3][5]. - Significant price increases were noted in the "other goods and services" category, which includes jewelry, with a +8.1% YoY change [5][8]. - Core inflation rose by +0.7% YoY, with core goods prices increasing by 0.9% YoY [5][19]. PPI Analysis - The PPI reading was -3.6% YoY, contrasting with market expectations of a narrower contraction [4][19]. - The PPI for the auto sector showed stabilization, while ferrous metals and non-metallic minerals reported negative changes, indicating a mixed outlook for SSR2.0 candidates [4][19]. Supply Side Reform Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming Politburo meeting and action plans from relevant ministries will be crucial for future inflation trajectories [19]. - The divergence in price trends between sectors like steel and auto underscores the need for targeted demand-side policies [19].

I wanted to have a closer look at SSAB ( OTCPK:SSABF ) ( OTCPK:SSAAF ) ( OTCPK:SSAAY ), the Sweden-based steel producer, before the company publishes its Q2 results, as I want to be prepared and get a better idea of whatHe is the leader of the investment group European Small Cap Ideas which offers exclusive access to actionable research on appealing Europe-focused investment opportunities not found elsewhere. The a focus is on high-quality ideas in the small-cap space, with emphasis on capital gains and div ...

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. has achieved its first steel production at its new electric arc furnace project, marking a significant milestone in its transformation towards producing green steel with a potential reduction in carbon emissions by up to 70 percent [1][2]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario [6]. - The company is a fully integrated producer and key supplier of steel products in North America, recognized for its Direct Strip Production Complex, which is one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in the region [6]. Transformation and Innovation - The first steel production from the electric arc furnace (EAF) project is part of Algoma's largest industrial decarbonization initiative in Canada, reflecting years of planning and execution since the project began in November 2021 [3]. - The EAF technology is expected to significantly lower carbon emissions, aligning with the company's commitment to environmental stewardship and recycling [7]. Product Development - All steel produced through the EAFs will be branded as Volta, which aims to deliver the same performance as existing products but with dramatically lower emissions, leveraging Ontario's clean electricity grid [4]. - The introduction of Volta is part of Algoma's strategy to support the growth of a low-carbon economy [4]. Leadership Perspective - The President and CEO of Algoma expressed pride in reaching this critical milestone, emphasizing the company's determination to innovate and lead in the steel industry during a period of trade uncertainty [3].

Pentwater’s hedge funds that wager on corporate events extended gains in June to deliver some of their best-ever six-month returns, helped by a mega bet on US Steel’s tie-up with Nippon Steel https://t.co/6UYfltX7wd ...