Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a breakout upward trend, with both London and Shanghai copper futures reaching new short-term highs, attracting significant investment interest in copper-related stocks in the A-share market [1] Supply Concerns - The recent suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, owned by a major U.S. mining company, has raised concerns about tightening copper supply [1] Macroeconomic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment for copper is stable, with the Federal Reserve restarting its interest rate cut cycle and a weakening impact from tariff factors [1] Demand Factors - The growth in demand from the renewable energy sector is viewed as a positive factor for future copper prices, suggesting potential for further price increases [1] Price Dynamics - Future copper pricing is expected to be influenced primarily by demand factors, despite the potential for overreactions to supply disruptions caused by mining incidents [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that since 2025, there have been frequent disturbances in copper mines, but most of these disturbances are short-lived, resulting in limited supply reductions. [1] Supply Impact - The Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg copper mines are currently the most significant sources of supply disruption, with Grasberg expected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons in Q4 2025, which may help in depleting electrolytic copper inventories in China. [1] - By 2026, the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg is projected to reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, primarily contributed by Chinese mines such as Jiulong Copper and Mirador. [1] Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories have been fluctuating since September, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in China. [1] - The expectation of increased copper demand driven by AI-related infrastructure development, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment, suggests a potential upward trend in copper prices. [1] - The price of gold is also expected to exert some influence on copper prices. [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality copper mining companies as potential investment opportunities. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, driven by supply concerns following the suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, owned by Freeport-McMoRan, which has raised fears of tightening copper supply [1][2][3] Supply Side Analysis - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has announced a production halt due to an accident, leading to a downward revision of copper sales forecasts for Q4 2023 and the entirety of 2026, with expected production reductions of approximately 35% for copper and gold [2][3] - The mine's production was previously stable at over 700,000 tons annually, with a target of 770,000 tons for 2026, meaning a loss of around 260,000 tons of copper supply due to the incident [2][3] - The supply constraints are exacerbated by a lack of new mining capacity and ongoing production losses, leading to a negative processing fee environment and a significant imbalance between copper ore supply and refined copper availability [3][4] Demand Side Analysis - Despite slow growth in traditional consumption sectors, emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI are expected to drive future copper demand [5][6] - The current negative processing fee situation may lead to a more challenging environment for smelting operations in 2026, further impacting supply dynamics [5][6] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with reduced uncertainty regarding tariffs and a potential 50 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could support copper prices [4][6] - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise, with forecasts suggesting that LME copper could range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in Q4 2025, while Shanghai copper futures may range from 80,000 to 84,000 yuan per ton [6] - The Grasberg mine's shutdown is expected to widen the supply gap for copper concentrate, significantly affecting the copper market from Q4 2025 to 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Perpetua Resources is experiencing significant stock price growth, driven by plans to establish a critical antimony refining facility in the U.S. to enhance domestic supply [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Perpetua Resources' stock rose over 7% on Friday, marking a 90% increase year-to-date [1] - The company is in discussions with Glencore and Trafigura to collaborate on building an antimony refining plant in the U.S. [1] - Last week, Perpetua Resources received U.S. government approval to begin construction of its antimony mine located approximately 138 miles (222 kilometers) north of Boise, Idaho [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The new mine is set to become the largest source of antimony supply in the U.S., a critical mineral used in manufacturing bullets, solar panels, and other products [1] - Currently, there are no domestic antimony resources in the U.S., highlighting the importance of this development for national supply [1] Group 3: Executive Insights - CEO Jon Cherry expressed optimism about expanding domestic mineral processing capabilities and emphasized the importance of making informed, market-based decisions when selecting partners [1]

Core Viewpoint - Perpetua Resources (PPTA.US) has seen a significant stock increase of over 7%, reaching a historical high, and has surged 90% year-to-date, driven by plans to establish an antimony refining plant in the U.S. to boost domestic supply [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Perpetua Resources is in discussions with Glencore and Trafigura to collaborate on building an antimony refining facility in the U.S. [1] - The company has received U.S. government approval to begin construction of its antimony mine located approximately 138 miles (222 kilometers) north of Boise, Idaho, which will become the largest antimony supply source in the U.S. [1] - The CEO of Perpetua Resources, Jon Cherry, expressed optimism about expanding domestic mineral processing capabilities and emphasized the importance of making informed, market-based decisions when selecting partners [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Antimony is identified as a critical mineral used in the production of bullets, solar panels, and other products, highlighting its importance in various industries [1] - Currently, there are no domestic antimony mining resources in the U.S., indicating a significant opportunity for Perpetua Resources to fill this gap in the market [1]

降息后分歧加剧，鲍威尔重申风险管理！美政府停摆逼近，特朗普对乌口风骤变，抛出关税"连环炮"。阿里再获木头姐建仓，加密资产行情失速…本周你错 过哪些刺激行情？ 非美货币方面，受强美元走势影响，欧元、英镑、澳元、日元兑美元本周均整体录得下跌，其中欧元兑美元料将四周来首次收跌，英镑和澳元兑美元连续第 二周下跌，美元兑日元连续第二周上涨。 本周国际油价有望录得近三个月来最大单周涨幅，美布两油均一度涨超4%，主要受到乌克兰对俄罗斯能源基础设施袭击以及美国原油库存意外下降的双重 推动。此外，美国经济数据强于预期，以及伊拉克库尔德地区恢复石油出口的消息也对油价产生了一定影响。 风险资产方面，美股三大指数先涨后跌，周初再度创出历史新高，科技股尤其是苹果和英伟达领涨；但自周二起市场获利回吐压力加大，叠加宏观数据扰 动，三大指数连续回调。 加密货币本周大跌，以太坊在周四跌破4000美元/枚，正式开启技术熊市，较8月份的历史高点累计下跌超20%。比特币一度失守11万美元/枚。 投行观点分享 行情回顾 美元指数本周整体呈现"先弱后强"的格局，行情驱动主要来自对美联储降息预期的再定价和宏观数据的超预期表现。周初连续收跌主要因为投资者重 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies will continue throughout the 15th Five - Year Plan, providing a bottom - support for industrial product prices. Domestic economy is under marginal pressure and requires more policy support. Overseas, the Fed has restarted the easing process, and the expectation of interest rate cuts this year is strong, which is beneficial for overseas manufacturing recovery and expanding domestic policy space. [10][80] - In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by the logic of expectation and real - world trading. The raw materials in the black industry chain are stronger than the finished products. Steel is mainly supported by cost and positive macro - expectations in the fourth quarter, and will operate in a volatile manner. [80] - Iron ore prices are supported by strong demand, but the accumulation of port inventories will restrict the upward space. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term, but will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In the third quarter, steel prices improved due to policy expectations and cost support. In July, prices rose significantly; in August, they fell due to the cooling of anti - involution and weak demand; in September, they bottomed out with policy support. [5][7] - **Iron Ore**: In the third quarter, iron ore prices strengthened due to policy expectations and strong demand. In July, prices rose significantly and then were under pressure but still trended strongly overall. [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Anti - involution**: Since July, anti - involution has received high - level attention. It is expected to run through the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the long - term policy expectation of "anti - involution" supports industrial product prices. [10] - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market expects another two interest rate cuts this year. The impact on the black industry is relatively small. [13] - **US Economic Performance**: The US manufacturing and service PMIs in September were lower than expected. Retail sales and manufacturing output in August were strong, and the Q2 GDP was revised upwards. [20] - **Domestic Economic Data**: China's economic data in August showed marginal weakness. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment all missed expectations. Policy support is needed. [23] - **August Social Financing**: In August, social financing performance was weak, and credit demand was still weak. M2 growth stagnated, and M1 growth slowed. [30] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: Real estate investment and sales continued to weaken, and the demand for construction steel remained weak. [31] - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure investment growth slowed in the first eight months of 2025, but the proportion of special bonds invested in infrastructure increased, and there may be positive signals of marginal improvement. [38] - **Automobiles**: Automobile production and sales were stable. In August, production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also grew significantly. [41] - **Excavators and Ships**: In August 2025, excavator production and sales increased year - on - year. Ship exports from January to August increased by 24.4% year - on - year. [44] - **Exports**: In August 2025, steel exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Overall exports had some resilience, but attention should be paid to the pressure in the fourth quarter. [45] - **Steel Demand** - **Rebar**: In the third quarter, rebar demand was weak, and the weak pattern was difficult to change. [50] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: In the third quarter, hot - rolled coil demand was resilient, but it may face challenges in the fourth quarter. [50] - **Steel Supply** - **Steel Mills**: Steel mills had good profits, and the blast furnace operating rate was high. In the peak season, high - level supply may continue, and attention should be paid to demand matching. [53][59] - **Crude Steel Output**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Global crude steel output in August increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. [56] - **Inventory** - **Steel**: In the third quarter, steel inventory accumulated. Rebar inventory began seasonal destocking, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate. [63] - **Iron Ore**: In the third quarter, port inventory of iron ore was relatively balanced. In the fourth quarter, port inventory pressure may increase, and steel mill inventory remained low. [78] - **Price Difference**: In the third quarter, the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference was high and has now converged. It is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. [64] - **Iron Ore Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: In August, iron ore imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The shipments of the four major mines recovered in the second quarter, and the production targets for the 2026 fiscal year were raised. [68][69] - **Demand**: In the third quarter, iron ore demand was stronger than last year. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output were high, but attention should be paid to downstream demand performance. [75] 4. Future Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Anti - involution policies will support industrial product prices. The Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for overseas manufacturing and domestic policy space. Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and domestic policy space. [80] - **Supply - Demand**: In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by expectations and reality. Steel will operate in a volatile manner, and iron ore prices will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a geological exploration firm to a comprehensive mining enterprise, focusing on lithium, minor metals, and copper [18]. - The company has significant advantages in the minor metals sector, particularly in cesium and rubidium, which are expected to contribute to stable profits [46]. - The lithium segment is positioned for cost optimization and increased competitiveness, with a focus on resource self-sufficiency [75]. - The copper segment is anticipated to become a key growth driver following the acquisition of high-quality copper mining assets [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,364 in 2024, 6,150 in 2025, 7,795 in 2026, and 10,168 in 2027, with growth rates of -10.8%, 14.7%, 26.7%, and 30.4% respectively [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted at 757 in 2024, 445 in 2025, 1,063 in 2026, and 1,733 in 2027, with growth rates of -65.7%, -41.3%, 139.1%, and 63.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 1.05 in 2024, 0.62 in 2025, 1.47 in 2026, and 2.40 in 2027 [2]. Business Segments Overview Minor Metals - The company has a strong resource advantage in cesium and rubidium, with significant pricing power due to high market concentration [46]. - The new germanium and gallium projects are expected to contribute to performance starting in 2025 [46]. Lithium - The company has been actively acquiring quality lithium mines since 2018, enhancing resource security and reducing costs [75]. - The lithium segment is expected to have a stable bottoming out of prices, with projected sales volumes of 42,000 tons in 2025, 45,000 tons in 2026, and 52,000 tons in 2027 [8]. Copper - The acquisition of the Kitumba copper mine is set to enhance the company's position in the bulk metal sector, with a planned production capacity of 60,000 tons per year starting in 2026 [7][9]. - The copper market is expected to remain tight, with prices projected to stay high due to limited new supply [7]. Valuation and Market Potential - The report estimates the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 4.45 billion, 10.63 billion, and 17.33 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is projected to be 36.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.36% from the current market cap of 31.4 billion yuan [7].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved China Uranium Corporation's initial public offering registration, with plans to raise 4.11 billion yuan [1] - China Uranium Corporation focuses on the comprehensive utilization of natural uranium and radioactive associated mineral resources, primarily engaging in the mining, sales, and trade of natural uranium resources [4] - The company has developed advanced extraction technologies, including a third-generation CO2+O2 in-situ leaching technology for complex sandstone uranium deposits [4] Group 2 - China Uranium Corporation is actively expanding its overseas uranium resource development, particularly in major uranium-producing regions in Africa and Asia [4] - The company's Rossing uranium mine in Namibia ranked sixth globally in uranium production in 2022 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global copper supply - demand structure will be further tightened due to the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry, copper prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][13]. - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. Although there are some improvements in the supply side, the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens, and it is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. - The aluminum industry chain presents a mixed situation. Aluminum is slightly bullish but it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cast aluminum alloy can be short - term bullish [6][14]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a short - term bullish strategy is recommended, while paying attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts [7]. - Lead shows a range - bound upward movement. With the increase in supply after the end of maintenance and the existence of pre - holiday stocking demand, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuate repeatedly. Nickel is affected by mine - end disturbances, and stainless steel is supported by cost. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both [10][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest rate cuts. Further economic data changes need to be monitored to see if it can confirm the preventive interest rate cuts and their effectiveness, which will be beneficial to the later trend of non - ferrous metals [11]. - The US announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1st. - The preliminary values of the Eurozone's September manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs showed mixed performance. The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMIs declined but remained in the expansion range, with prices easing. - China's one - year and five - year LPRs in September remained unchanged. The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to an independent stance, taking into account both domestic and foreign factors, and is currently supportive and moderately loose [11]. 3.2 Metal - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - An accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine has suspended production, and the company expects a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. The earliest recovery to pre - accident production levels will be in 2027. - In the medium - to long - term, the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry are positive for copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term support range of 80,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton. An option strategy of selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options can be considered [4][13]. 3.2.2 Zinc - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. The supply increase is gradually materializing, and the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: Slightly bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,200 - 20,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,700 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term bullish. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][14]. 3.2.4 Tin - In a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight supply due to issues such as ore shortages and delayed production resumption in Myanmar. The demand recovery is limited. It is recommended to be short - term bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [7][14]. 3.2.5 Lead - With the end of maintenance, the supply of primary lead will increase. There is pre - holiday stocking demand, but the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to close long positions on rallies, with a support range of 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Affected by mine - end disturbances in Indonesia, prices fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. It shows a range - bound trend, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [10][17]. 3.3 Market Performance - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase; zinc at 21,860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; aluminum at 20,705 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; etc. [18]. - **Spot Prices**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 80,130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 21,810 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; etc. [21][23]. 3.4 Position Analysis - For different non - ferrous metal futures contracts such as沪铜 (CU2511),氧化铝 (AO2601),沪镍 (NI2511), etc., the net long - short positions, their changes, and influencing factors are presented. For example, in沪铜 (CU2511), the main short positions are relatively strong, and the net long - short position difference is - 718, with an increase in long - position main forces [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain and Other Analysis - The report also provides various charts related to the non - ferrous metal industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price comparisons, and arbitrage, option - related data for different metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. For example, charts of copper inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, and copper option historical volatility are provided [25][28][78].