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交通运输产业行业研究:顺丰业务量增速领跑,油运景气加速向上
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-22 07:02
Investment Rating - The report recommends "顺丰控股" (SF Express) in the express delivery sector and "海晨股份" (Haichen Co.) in the logistics sector, as well as "中国国航" (Air China) and "南方航空" (Southern Airlines) in the aviation sector [3][4][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows strong growth, with SF Express's business volume growth significantly outpacing the industry, and the overall express delivery volume in May reaching 173.2 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [3]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Haichen Co. benefiting from improved demand in consumer electronics [4]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with domestic passenger volume in May reaching 56.45 million, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and international passenger volume increasing by 23% [5][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Sector Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.1% during the week of June 14-20, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.5%, outperforming the market by 0.4% [2][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is facing mixed conditions, with container shipping rates under pressure, while oil shipping rates are rising due to geopolitical tensions [6][22]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% week-on-week but down 30.2% year-on-year [6][22]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing strong upward momentum, with domestic and international passenger volumes recovering significantly compared to 2019 levels [5][58]. - The average daily flights reached 14,867, with international flights increasing by 16.17% year-on-year [5]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail and road sectors are stable, with rail passenger volume in April reaching 382 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.97% [84]. - The national highway freight traffic increased by 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in road logistics [7][88]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a total of 39.3 billion pieces collected in the week of June 9-15, with a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [3]. - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, indicating pricing pressures in the sector [3].
交通运输产业行业研究:4月快递业务量同比增长19.1%,免签国家范围新增5个
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 09:15
Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding as a strong candidate due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 19.1% in business volume for April, while the average revenue per package decreased by 7% [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure with domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals declining, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery with an increase in flight operations and a new visa-free policy expected to boost inbound tourism [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 2.1% from May 10 to May 16, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1% [12]. Express Delivery - In April, the express delivery business volume reached 163.2 billion packages, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package was 7.43 yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2]. Logistics - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals was 163 yuan/ton, down 15.1% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is recommended due to its focus on smart logistics and improving demand in the consumer electronics sector [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flight operations reached 14,919, a 5.58% increase year-on-year, with international flights up 17.67% [4]. - The introduction of visa-free travel for five countries is expected to enhance tourism [4]. Shipping - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1,104.88 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 20.5% year-on-year [22]. - The domestic container shipping index (PDCI) was 1,163 points, down 0.8% week-on-week but up 7.8% year-on-year [33]. Road and Rail - National highway truck traffic increased by 15.15% week-on-week, with a total of 51.75 million trucks [82]. - Railway passenger turnover was 1,121.34 billion person-kilometers, down 1.31% year-on-year [79].
交通运输产业行业周报:美国加征关税影响物流,国际油价环比大跌利好航空
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-07 00:25
Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for SF Holding and Xingtong Co., Ltd. due to their strong performance and market positioning [1][2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector shows significant growth with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% in collection volume and 21.3% in delivery volume [1]. - The shipping industry faces challenges due to increased tariffs from the U.S., which may impact freight rates and demand in the long term [4]. - The aviation sector benefits from a drop in Brent crude oil prices, which enhances airline profitability, alongside a notable increase in passenger volume during the Qingming holiday [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The total collection volume for postal express reached approximately 3.824 billion pieces, with a month-on-month increase of 3.86% and a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1]. - SF Holding reported a revenue of 284.4 billion yuan for 2024, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 23.5% [1]. - The report recommends SF Holding based on valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [1]. Logistics - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while the China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) fell by 7.8% [2]. - Xingtong Co., Ltd. is recommended due to its strong market position and benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics demand [2]. Aviation - The average daily flight volume increased by 4.53% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.21% and international flights up by 20.71% [3]. - The passenger volume on April 4, 2025, was 1.789 million, an increase of 8.6% compared to the same day in 2024 [3]. - The report recommends China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit growth from optimized supply and demand dynamics [3]. Shipping - The external trade container freight index (CCFI) was 1102.71 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and 7.4% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the potential long-term impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation and demand, leading to a downward adjustment in freight rates [4]. Road and Rail - The total truck traffic on national highways reached 54.681 million vehicles, with a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 1.62% [5]. - The report notes that the dividend yield of major road operators exceeds the yield of China's ten-year government bonds, indicating good investment value [5].