2 July 2025 | 4:55PM SGT Base Metals Tracker: Robust Chinese Demand And US Over-Importing Is Tightening The Ex-US Copper Market China's refined copper demand has increased by 12% YTD May. While export strength and a weak 2024 base contribute, domestic demand is a significant driver. China solar installations are up 150%, and AC sales are up 8%. Our end-use tracker indicates 13% YTD growth, after finished product exports, supporting 12% YTD growth in refined copper demand. We maintain our forecast of 6% grow ...

1 July 2025 | 8:44AM EDT US Economics Analyst The Framework Review: Room for Innovation on Fed Communication (Abecasis / Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. L ...

July 2, 2025 05:49 AM GMT Global in the Flow 1H25 Recap Performance – Dollar depreciates, equities rebound, credit is resilient Although it was a volatile first half, equity markets recovered the losses after April 2. The S&P 500 returned 6.2%, MSCI Europe returned 23.7% and KOSPI led, returning 40.9%. Technology led global equity sectors while consumer staples lagged. Rates performance in DM markets was mixed. However, credit was resilient. US and EUR HY total returns were 4.6% and 2.7%, respectively. The ...

Barclays has made a series of key leadership changes at its investment banking division in the Asia-Pacific region https://t.co/vfBoEvNjQW ...

Core Insights - The financial services sector outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by modest economic expansion, decent loan demand, higher interest rates, increased market volatility, and ongoing business restructuring initiatives [1][2][8] Sector Performance - The financial services sector gained over 7% in the January-June period, surpassing the S&P 500 Index's 4.9% rise [2] - Higher interest rates, technology investments, loan growth, and market volatility contributed to the sector's strength [8] Technology and Innovation - Increased use of innovative trading platforms and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to enhance profitability for finance firms in the long run, despite initial technology-related expenses [3] Top-Performing Stocks - Five top-performing stocks in the financial services sector include Coinbase Global (COIN), W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB), Northern Trust (NTRS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) [4][8] Coinbase Global (COIN) - Coinbase is positioned to benefit from increased crypto market volatility, with 84% of its revenues coming from the U.S. market [9] - The company is investing in infrastructure and platforms like Base to enhance the practical use of crypto [10] - Coinbase ended Q1 2025 with $10.2 billion in USD resources, a 6.7% increase from the end of 2024 [12] W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) - WRB has been investing in startups and expanding into international markets, with a 10.2% year-over-year increase in net premiums written in Q1 2025 [15] - The company is experiencing growth across all business lines except for professional liability and workers' compensation [16] Northern Trust (NTRS) - Northern Trust is focusing on organic expansion and has launched Family Office Solutions to attract ultra-high-net-worth clients [20] - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 13% in Q1 2025, indicating progress towards sustainable profitability [22] Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs is restructuring to refocus on core strengths, including the transfer of its GM credit card business and the sale of GreenSky [24][25] - The company expects a recovery in investment banking revenues in the second half of 2025 as economic conditions stabilize [26] Charles Schwab (SCHW) - Schwab is benefiting from a high-interest-rate environment, with its net interest margin improving to 2.12% by the end of Q1 2025 [30] - The company has a strong cash position of $35 billion and a total debt of $39.9 billion as of March 31, 2025 [33]

2025-07-02 焦点关注 上半年债市报告出炉：2家主体首次违约 7月2日，大公国际发布2025年1-6月债券市场分析报告。 上半年，信用债发行数量、发行规模分别为11,077只、10.16万亿元，分别同比增长6.75%、4.39%；石 油石化、机械设备、电子、公用事业、商贸零售、汽车等行业发债规模增长明显。 违约与评级调整方面，1-6月共有2家企业主体首次违约，3家企业主体首次展期。1-6月，级别上调方 面，36家企业主体级别被国内评级机构上调，城投企业近半数，20家企业主体级别被国际评级机构上 调；展望上调方面，2家企业评级展望被国内评级机构上调，63家企业评级展望被国际评级机构上调。 4只超长期特别国债提前发行 第 407 期 7月1日，财政部公开了2025年第三季度国债发行有关安排，三季度将共计发行11只超长期特别国债。对 比今年4月份财政部披露的发债计划发现，有4只超长期特别国债发行时间有所提前。 具体来看，原本定于7月24日招标的20年期超长期特别国债，此次提前至7月14日发行，较原计划提前了 10天。原本定于9月24日招标的50年期超长期特别国债，此次提前至9月10日，较原计划提前了14天。 ...

Markets may hate uncertainty, but in 2025, they seem to love volatility. Despite cloudy and, at times, contradictory economic indicators, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices reached all-time highs to close out the second quarter. Should investors expect more of the same in the year's second half? There is likely to be more clarity about monetary and tariff policy. Analysts also expect companies to report solid earnings in the next quarter, particularly in the tech sector, where the AI trade continues to gain ste ...

Barclays may not be done with its investment-banking cuts, writes @PaullJDavies (via @opinion) https://t.co/xjb2Pxz1M8 ...

Asia Economics | Asia Pacific The Viewpoint: Why the RMB will not follow the yen path of 1985-95 We don't expect the RMB to appreciate significantly given persistent deflationary pressures and need to keep monetary policy accommodative. Pursuing currency appreciation on its own would exacerbate deflation, might be insufficient to secure a trade deal, and wouldn't bring sustainable rebalancing. Key Takeaways In this report, we draw on the lessons from Japan's currency appreciation after 1985 and highlight th ...

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. June 30, 2025 01:19 PM GMT Morg ...