Optical Transceivers

Search documents
花旗:光迅科技_2025 年疲软业绩指引;估值过高;维持卖出评级
花旗· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Accelink Technologies is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb24.6, indicating an expected share price return of -46.7% [2][5]. Core Insights - Accelink Technologies expects a net profit growth of 55%-95% YoY for 1H25, with guidance of Rmb323 million to Rmb407 million, driven by strong optical transceiver demand and an improved product mix [1][4]. - The mid-point of the 2Q25 earnings guidance at Rmb215 million is slightly below expectations, suggesting potential downside risk to the share price, which is currently trading at a high valuation of 37x FY25 PE compared to peers at around high-teens [1][5]. - The valuation of Accelink is considered demanding due to lower profitability in the domestic transceiver market and relatively lower earnings growth compared to competitors like Innolight and Eoptolink [1][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Guidance - For 2Q25, Accelink's net profit guidance is Rmb215 million, a 64% increase from Rmb131 million in 2Q24, while for 1H25, the guidance is Rmb365 million, a 75% increase from Rmb209 million in 1H24 [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb24.6 is based on a P/E multiple of 20.0x 2025E EPS, which is one standard deviation below the stock's five-year historical forward PER [5]. Market Capitalization - Accelink Technologies has a market capitalization of Rmb37,228 million (approximately US$5,196 million) [2].
高盛:中际旭创-TechNet China 2025_800G 继续成为主要增长驱动力;推荐买入
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-26 05:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Innolight with a 12-month price target of Rmb115, indicating an upside potential of 25.2% from the current price of Rmb91.87 [10][14]. Core Insights - Innolight is positioned as a leading supplier of optical transceivers in the datacom market, particularly benefiting from the growth in AI and data center expansions [10][11]. - The demand for 800G transceivers is expected to remain strong, driven by cloud service providers transitioning from 400G to 800G for AI inferencing applications [2][10]. - The company anticipates easing supply constraints by the third quarter of 2025 due to new capacity from laser suppliers, which should support shipment growth [7][10]. - Profitability is projected to improve due to a favorable product mix, particularly with an increase in silicon photonics modules, which have higher gross margins compared to traditional transceivers [8][10]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - The demand outlook for 2025 remains unchanged, with solid orders from customers. The transition to 800G is expected to ramp up in the second half of 2025, particularly for AI applications [2][10]. - The migration from 400G to 800G in traditional cloud datacenters is anticipated to gain momentum into 2026, although it currently accounts for less than 20% of overall 800G demand in 2025 [2][10]. Supply Constraints - Innolight's revenue growth has been flat over the past three quarters due to upstream component constraints, particularly with EML laser supply. Management expects improvements in supply conditions by 3Q25 [7][10]. Profitability and Margins - The company has reaffirmed its trend of profitability improvement, driven by a shift in product mix towards silicon photonics transceivers and enhanced manufacturing efficiency [8][10]. - The gross margin is expected to increase from 33.8% in 2024 to 38.3% in 2025, with net margins projected to rise from 21.7% in 2024 to 24.3% in 2025 [9][10]. Future Projections - The ramp for 1.6T transceivers is set for 3Q25, but the overall volume is expected to remain small compared to 800G. The mainstream adoption of 1.6T is anticipated in 2027 [3][10]. - The financial outlook shows significant revenue growth, with projections of Rmb29.3 billion in 2025 and Rmb33.6 billion in 2026 [9][10].
高盛:Optical Transceive- 重申 2025 年下半年出货前景;2025 年第一季度总结
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-13 05:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both Innolight and Eoptolink, with a 12-month price target of Rmb115 for Innolight and Rmb136 for Eoptolink, indicating potential upside of 19.2% and 26% respectively [30][34]. Core Insights - The optical transceiver demand outlook for 2025 remains firm, driven by AI infrastructure needs, with key customers maintaining their transceiver volume expectations [1][16]. - Supply constraints are expected to ease as new laser capacity comes online around the end of 2Q25, which could support a faster shipment cadence in 2H25 [8][15]. - The 1.6T shipment ramp is anticipated to concentrate in 2H25, with initial demand forecasts for 2026 expected to be communicated by customers in mid-2025 [14][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - The demand for optical transceivers is primarily driven by AI infrastructure, with a robust outlook for 800G transceiver orders in 2025 [1][13]. - Concerns regarding 2026 demand persist, but clarity is expected as customers begin to communicate their forecasts [3][20]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain is experiencing tightness in laser components, but improvements are anticipated as new capacities are introduced [15][8]. - The ongoing ramp of 800G products is expected to be a key growth driver, with significant shipments anticipated in 2H25 [4][11]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings estimates for Innolight and Eoptolink have been revised upward, reflecting improved supply conditions and steady demand [17][22]. - Innolight's revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been increased by 3%-8%, while Eoptolink's estimates have been raised by 4%-9% [21][22]. Competitive Positioning - Innolight is positioned as a leader in the 800G/1.6T optical transceiver market, benefiting from strong relationships with major customers [26][28]. - Eoptolink is also well-positioned to capitalize on the ramp-up of 400G/800G transceivers, with a focus on AI infrastructure [31].
中际旭创:2015年第一季度盈利稳健,利润率强劲-20250423
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-04-23 02:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating on Innolight, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][18]. Core Insights - Innolight reported a strong 1Q25 performance with revenue increasing by 38% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB6.7 billion, driven by global cloud capital expenditures and demand for 400G/800G optical transceivers [1]. - The net profit (NP) rose by 57% YoY to RMB1.6 billion, attributed to growth in orders and improved margins, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 36.7%, significantly above the Bloomberg consensus of 31.9% [1]. - The target price (TP) has been revised to RMB151 based on a 21.5x 2025E P/E, reflecting rising geopolitical uncertainties and lower sector sentiment [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB35,008 million, representing a 46.7% YoY growth, following a 122.6% growth in FY24A [2][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in FY25E, with net profit projected at RMB7,721.8 million, a 49.3% increase YoY [2][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is estimated at RMB7.02, with a P/E ratio of 11.6x [2][8]. Market Position and Outlook - Innolight is positioned as a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure investments, with expectations of solid demand for 400G/800G products from both domestic and overseas cloud service providers [7]. - The management anticipates a recovery in 400G shipments supported by rising domestic cloud capital expenditures, despite a temporary decline [7]. - The company has mitigated tariff risks through its offshore manufacturing capacity in Thailand, which benefits from zero-tariff treatment under current trade rules [7].
高盛:中际旭创-2025年第一季度利润符合预期,因良品率提升和产品组合优化利润率改善,评级买入
Goldman Sachs· 2025-04-22 05:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Innolight is "Buy" with a 12-month price target revised to Rmb105 from Rmb115, indicating an upside potential of 32.7% from the current price of Rmb79.14 [13][20]. Core Insights - Innolight's 1Q25 net profit was Rmb1.58 billion, aligning with pre-announced expectations, while revenue was Rmb6.67 billion, which was 5% below expectations due to supply chain constraints [1]. - The gross margin (GM) improved to 36.7% in 1Q25, reflecting a 3.9 percentage points year-over-year increase and a 1.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by better yield and product mix [1][2]. - The company anticipates a robust near-term outlook into 2Q25, supported by the commencement of 1.6T batch shipments and the ramp-up of 800G volume [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was Rmb6.67 billion, indicating a 2% quarter-over-quarter growth, but the growth has slowed for three consecutive quarters [9]. - The company expects gradual improvement in supply constraints into 2Q/3Q25 as new supplier capacity comes online [9]. Margin Outlook - The gross margin has shown a consistent improvement over the past five quarters, with expectations for further upside in 2Q25 and 2H25 due to a favorable product mix and efficiency improvements [2]. - The ongoing increase in silicon photonics transceivers and the ramp-up of 1.6T transceivers, which have higher gross margins compared to the company average, are expected to contribute positively to margins [2]. Tariff Impact - Innolight's production base in Thailand allows it to mitigate tariff impacts, as transceiver shipments from Thailand to the US are exempt from tariffs, contrasting with shipments from China that face a 27.5% tariff [8]. - The company has established sufficient capacity in Thailand to meet US demand, which has significantly contributed to its revenue growth [8]. Future Projections - Revenue estimates for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted to Rmb23.86 billion, Rmb27.98 billion, and Rmb31.22 billion respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to slower shipment growth expectations [15]. - Net profit estimates have been revised upwards by 12% and 4% for 2025 and 2026E respectively, indicating a positive outlook despite revenue adjustments [12][15].