The court limits Trump’s tariff power… the White House hits back with a 15% blanket tariff… how will it all play out?… digging into the portfolio implicationsLast month in the Digest, we laid out three possible ways the Supreme Court could rule on President Donald Trump’s global tariffs:Path #1: The court upholds the tariffsPath #2: Tariffs are struck down (narrow ruling)Path #3: Tariffs are struck down (broad power ruling)On Friday, we got our answer…In a 6–3 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts, ...

This story was originally published on Supply Chain Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Supply Chain Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Walmart's capital investments in its supply chain will "probably peak this year and next year," with the company's increasing use of automation being a component of that spending, President and CEO John Furner said on an earnings call Thursday. In the U.S., 23 of Walmart's 42 regional distribution centers are in the process of being retrofi ...

Core Insights - Walmart's recent earnings call revealed a candid acknowledgment of the impact of automation on workforce reduction, despite previous claims of creating new roles through automation [1][2] Group 1: Automation and Labor - Walmart's CFO, John Rainey, stated that approximately 60% of Walmart U.S. stores receive freight from automated distribution centers, and about 50% of eCommerce fulfillment center volume is automated, enhancing shipping and inventory management [3] - The company emphasized that automation improves labor productivity and inventory visibility, allowing stores to function as digital fulfillment nodes for faster inventory movement [4] - Rainey highlighted that reducing labor costs is a primary goal, as inventory and labor represent the largest expenses for the company [5] Group 2: Workforce Strategy - Doug McMillon, Walmart's former CEO, noted that AI will significantly impact all jobs, but reassured that the company is not aiming to reduce its workforce [6] - Walmart plans to maintain its global headcount of 2.1 million workers for the next three years while anticipating revenue growth driven by increased AI technology adoption [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court's decision to strike down most of the Trump administration's tariffs introduces uncertainty for store chains, impacting their pricing strategies and supply chain management [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The Supreme Court's ruling affects a significant portion of tariffs that were previously imposed, which may lead to changes in import costs for various goods [1] - Store chains may face challenges in adjusting to the new tariff landscape, potentially affecting their profit margins and pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Retailers are likely to reassess their supply chains and pricing models in light of the Supreme Court's decision, which could lead to shifts in market dynamics [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs may prompt store chains to adopt more cautious approaches in their inventory management and pricing strategies [1]

Core Insights - Walmart's stock has increased approximately 13% year to date, benefiting from a shift in investor focus towards more defensive retail names as consumer confidence declines [1] Financial Performance - Walmart's revenue rose 5.6% to $190.66 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $190.43 billion [3] - Walmart U.S. store sales increased by 4.6% to $129.2 billion, with same-store sales also rising by 4.6% [3] - International sales jumped 11.5% to $31.2 billion, with a 7.5% increase in constant currencies [5] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 12% to $0.74, with gross margin increasing by 13 basis points [7] E-commerce and Advertising Growth - E-commerce sales grew by 27%, with customers using the AI tool spending 35% more than non-users [4] - International e-commerce sales increased by 17%, and U.S. ad revenue surged by 41% [4][5] Future Projections - Walmart projects first-quarter sales growth between 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted EPS of $0.63 to $0.65 [9] - For the full year, revenue growth is expected to be between 3.5% to 4.5%, with adjusted EPS projected at $2.75 to $2.85, which is below the consensus of $2.96 [9] Investment Considerations - Despite strong revenue growth and operational improvements, the stock's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 40 times raises concerns about valuation given mid-single-digit revenue growth [10]

Nothing says “Friday afternoon in Washington” quite like a constitutional crisis followed by a spontaneous tax on every single thing you own. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court decided to remind the executive branch that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) isn’t actually a “do whatever you want” card. In a 6-3 ruling that left the White House fuming and trade lawyers salivating, the Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs as unlawful. Naturally, t ...

All right, let's stay on the tariffs discussion and move into the retail sector. The XRT Spider ETF initially popped on the Supreme Court decision earlier, but it quickly gave up all those gains is actually lower now by a bit and now has moved now a half percent higher. So, it's been volatile.Help us here to help us make sense of all of this is SW Retail Advisors President Stacy Woodlets. Uh, we talk a lot of things about retail with you for good reason. So let's talk about some of the price action that we ...

Core Viewpoint - JP Morgan predicts potential economic turbulence following the Supreme Court ruling that nullified President Trump's emergency tariffs, estimating that the U.S. government may need to refund up to $200 billion to businesses [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Supreme Court's decision could lead to heightened trade uncertainty and reduced business spending, despite the Trump administration's intentions to revive tariffs through alternative legal means [1][4]. - The estimated amount at stake for refunds is between $150 billion and $200 billion, as noted by JP Morgan's economic policy researcher Michael Feroli [2]. - If refunds are passed on to consumers, the economic activity boost would be significant; however, if businesses retain the cash, the impact would be smaller [4]. Group 2: Legal and Corporate Actions - Major corporations, including Costco, J.Crew, Crocs, Goodyear, and EssilorLuxottica, have filed lawsuits seeking refunds in anticipation of the Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The ruling has remanded the issue of refunds to lower courts, leaving the full amount and timing of any rebates uncertain [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Implications - JP Morgan forecasts that legal rulings requiring the administration to refund duties could lead to a larger fiscal deficit in 2026, estimated at 6.6% of GDP, which translates to approximately $2.1 trillion based on current data [8]. - The fiscal deficit occurs when government spending exceeds tax revenue, contributing to national debt [8]. Group 4: Tariff System Outlook - The research indicates that the Trump administration may attempt to maintain the average effective tariff rate despite the ruling, using different legal authorities [11]. - The average effective tariff rate is projected to decrease from 9.4% in December to just over 4% without the IEEPA duties, indicating a significant realignment of tariffs across various products and countries [12].

Target, Nike and Hasbro stand to be big beneficiaries as the SCOTUS ruling could lower costs, analysts say, but stocks of retail giants like Walmart and Costco fell. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court's ruling to strike down some of President Trump's global tariffs is expected to provide more predictability and flexibility for innovation in the retail industry, alleviating the burden of higher import costs on businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Businesses - The National Retail Federation (NRF) stated that the ruling offers much-needed certainty for U.S. businesses and manufacturers, allowing global supply chains to operate without ambiguity [2]. - The Supreme Court's decision determined that Trump's broad tariff rates under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded presidential authority, leading to a dismissal of the case for lack of jurisdiction [2]. - The NRF emphasized the importance of a seamless process for refunding tariffs already paid, which would serve as an economic boost for companies to reinvest in operations, employees, and customers [3]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Matt Priest, CEO of Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, highlighted that the decision creates a more predictable and competitive environment, allowing the footwear industry to redirect billions of dollars toward innovation and job creation [4]. - The ruling is seen as relief amid significant cost pressures, fostering collaboration between industry leaders and policymakers to ensure trade policy aligns with the current global marketplace [4]. - Neil Bradley from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce described the ruling as welcome news for businesses and consumers, particularly benefiting over 200,000 small business importers facing cost increases and supply chain disruptions due to the tariffs [5][6].