RT Giacomo Tognini (@giacomotognini)The Fanjul family sugar barons have been wooing politicians for decades, but their bet on Trump is their best yet--especially after Trump pushed Coca-Cola to use cane sugar in its U.S. coke.@chloesorvino and I dug into their $4 billion fortune @Forbes: https://t.co/hwWGZDt6Ef ...

Core Viewpoint - March sugar futures are currently presenting a selling opportunity due to ongoing price weakness and bearish technical indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - March sugar futures prices are trending down and recently reached a multi-month low, forming a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart [1]. - The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish posture, with the blue MACD line below the red trigger line, both trending down [1]. - A move below the chart support at this week's high of 15.36 cents would signal a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective of 12.75 cents or lower [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Sugar futures prices are declining due to abundant global supplies, with major producers like Brazil and India reporting large sugar crops [2]. - The U.S. sugar harvest is anticipated to be larger this year compared to last year, contributing to the overall supply increase [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Technical resistance is identified at 16.50 cents, where a protective buy stop should be placed just above this level [3].

Group 1 - Sugar prices settled lower, with NY sugar reaching a 2.5-week low and London sugar hitting a four-year nearest-futures low [2][3] - Weakness in crude oil prices and the Brazilian Real are contributing factors to the decline in sugar prices, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to a 5-month low [2] - Brazil's sugar output is projected to increase, with a reported 15.7% year-on-year rise in sugar production in the first half of September [4] Group 2 - A global sugar surplus of 4.1 million metric tons is anticipated for the 2025/26 season, negatively impacting sugar prices [3] - India's monsoon rains are expected to lead to a bumper sugar crop, with a projected 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 [5] - The cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] - Brazil's sugar production has increased, contributing to bearish market sentiment [4][6] - India's favorable monsoon conditions are expected to boost sugar production, further pressuring prices [5][6] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.35 (-2.08%), and December London ICE white sugar 5 is down -9.40 (-2.02%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content in Brazil's sugarcane [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increased to 53.49% from 47.74% year-on-year [4] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by +19% y/y to 34.9 million tons due to larger planted cane acreage [6] - This follows a significant decline of -17.5% y/y in 2024/25, resulting in a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6] - The cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon season [5]

Core Viewpoint - Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd (BCML) is diversifying its operations by building its first bioplastic plant, aiming to expand beyond its traditional sugar and ethanol business in response to environmental concerns and market opportunities [1][2]. Company Overview - BCML is a 50-year-old sugar producer based in Uttar Pradesh, India, and is currently the second-largest and most profitable sugar company in the country [17][20]. - The company has a strong relationship with over 550,000 sugarcane farmers, which provides a unique advantage for sourcing biowaste as feedstock for bioplastics and ethanol production [2][3]. Bioplastic Plant Development - The bioplastic plant, with an investment of ₹2,850 crore, will be India's first large-scale PLA (polylactic acid) factory and is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, reaching a capacity of 80,000 tonnes per annum within six months of starting operations [7][8]. - The plant aims to produce eco-friendly alternatives to single-use plastics, such as bags and bottles, leveraging the company's integrated setup from sugarcane procurement to PLA production [11][12]. Strategic Plans and Future Expansion - Avantika Saraogi, an executive director at BCML, has outlined a ten-year vision for the company, which includes plans for further expansion and investment in new technologies to utilize grain as an additional feedstock [9][10]. - The company is exploring the use of complex sugars and lignin derived from biowaste to create biomaterials, indicating a broader strategy to tap into the biochemicals market [3][4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - BCML's bioplastic initiative positions it competitively against global PLA producers, with a total capacity of around 620,000 tonnes per annum among major players [12]. - The company benefits from favorable government policies in Uttar Pradesh, including capital subsidies and tax exemptions, which support the bioplastic manufacturing sector [13][14]. Industry Context and Challenges - The sugar industry faces regulatory challenges, with prices for cane, sugar, and ethanol being heavily controlled by the government, impacting profitability [21][22]. - The diversification into bioplastics is seen as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with the volatile sugar market and to enhance sustainability [20].

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, with NY sugar reaching a 4-week high and London sugar a 1.5-week high, driven by dollar weakness and stronger global demand, particularly from Pakistan's order of 320,000 MT of sugar for immediate delivery [1] Group 1: Current Market Trends - NY sugar futures rose by +0.15 (+0.94%) and London ICE white sugar increased by +6.50 (+1.41%) [1] - The recent dollar weakness is supportive for sugar prices, alongside indications of stronger global demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A projection by StoneX indicates a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [2] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MT in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% [3] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations of 4 MMT, surpassing earlier estimates of 2 MMT [4] Group 3: Global Production and Consumption Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25, with production expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [5] - The USDA projects a record global sugar production of +4.7% year-on-year to 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-on-year [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar is slightly down [2] - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus in the upcoming 2025/26 season, reversing the previous year's deficit [3][6] Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up by +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is down by -1.20 (-0.26%) [1] - The rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, benefiting sugar prices indirectly [2] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar output has increased, with a reported rise of +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, contributing to bearish price sentiment [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also increased, indicating a shift towards higher sugar production [4] Global Production and Consumption - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a global sugar production increase of +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season [6] Regional Insights - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may not alleviate its sugar surplus, leading to increased exports [5] - The cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season has decreased by -1.9% year-on-year, despite the recent increase in production [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, influenced by a rise in crude oil prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift towards ethanol production [1] - Global sugar supplies are projected to be abundant, with a forecasted surplus of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of 4.7 MMT in the previous season [2] - Brazil's sugar output has increased significantly, with a reported 18% year-on-year rise in the second half of August, which is expected to negatively impact sugar prices [3] - India is anticipated to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production, which may lead to increased exports of sugar, further contributing to the global surplus [4] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has forecasted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although the deficit is expected to improve compared to the previous season [5] Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 increased by 0.23 (+1.51%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by 8.40 (+1.86%) [1] - Sugar prices reached a 4.25-year low for NY sugar and a 4-year low for London sugar earlier in the day [2] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output for the second half of August was reported at 3.872 MMT, with an increase in the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August decreased by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] Global Supply and Demand - The ISO projects a global sugar production increase of 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while global consumption is expected to rise by 0.3% to 180.8 MMT [5]

Industry Overview - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is recognized as a "kingdom of sugarcane" with a sugarcane planting area of 11.35 million mu (approximately 756,667 hectares) during the 2024/2025 crushing season, marking an increase of 110,000 mu year-on-year [1] - The sugar output in the region exceeded 6.4 million tons, maintaining a 60% share of China's total sugar output for 20 consecutive crushing seasons [1][3] Company Developments - Guangxi Sungain Sugar Industry Group Co., Ltd. has significantly increased its daily sugarcane processing capacity during the 2024/2025 crushing season by implementing the "Eucalyptus Out, Sugarcane In" strategy and full-process mechanized planting [2] - The company is accelerating the "Second Entrepreneurship and Second Development" strategy to establish a benchmark for green, efficient, and clustered diversified industrialization, contributing to local sustainable economic and social development [2] Transformation and Upgrading - Guangxi's sugar industry is undergoing transformation towards high-quality development characterized by "technology + scale + green development," shifting from traditional sugar refining to intelligent processing [3] - The industry has expanded its industrial chain with new formats such as bagasse power generation and deep processing of sugarcane by-products, ensuring supply, stabilizing the market, and enhancing exports [3]

Industry Overview - Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is the largest base for sugarcane cultivation and sugar production in China, accounting for over 60% of the country's total sugar output [1][3] - The sugar industry in Guangxi has significantly improved agricultural benefits and provided stable income for farmers in sugarcane-growing areas [3] Company Profile - Guangxi Sungain Sugar Industry Group Co., Ltd. is one of the top 10 sugar enterprises in Guangxi, focusing on sugarcane sugar production and diversified industrial investments [2] - Sungain Group has established a large-scale sugarcane planting base and has successfully achieved a diversified development layout [2] Economic and Social Impact - The growth of the sugar industry has enhanced resource utilization efficiency through the comprehensive utilization of sugar by-products, promoting green and circular development [3] - Sugar enterprises have provided strong support for local finances, aiding in urban and rural infrastructure construction and regional economic integration [3] Future Development - Guangxi's sugar industry is focusing on technological innovation and brand building, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [4] - The industry is integrating with emerging industries through new technologies like digital agriculture and smart manufacturing, contributing to economic prosperity and social progress in ethnic group areas [4]