RT Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello)Price increases since the start of the Iran war...European Natural Gas: +85%Heating Oil: +80%Brent Crude Oil: +54%Urea: +48%WTI Crude Oil: +46%Gasoline: +44%Diesel: +42%Sulfur: +25%Coal: +24%Fertilizer: +23%Palm Oil: +13%US Natural Gas: +8%Iron Ore: +7%Rice: +7% ...

ADECOAGRO 2 0 2 5 R E S U L T S E A R N I N G S W E B C A S T 1 DISCLAIMER This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections about us and our industry. These forward-looking statements can be identified by words or phrases such as "anticipate," "forecast", "believe," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "is/are likely to," "may," "plan," "should," "would," or other similar expressions. The forward-looking statement ...

Core Insights - Adecoagro S.A. reported a strategic acquisition of Profertil, which is expected to drive long-term value and significantly increase the company's scale [2][3] - The company's Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $276.7 million, with a pro forma figure of $467.2 million, reflecting a weaker performance compared to 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business was $73.1 million in Q4 2025, a 30.6% decrease year-over-year, and $291.5 million for the full year, down 19.9% from the previous year [2] - The Fertilizers segment generated an Adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million since the acquisition of Profertil, with an annual pro forma Adjusted EBITDA of $196.5 million, down from $279.6 million in 2024 [6] - The Farming business reported a negative Adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 million in Q4 2025, an 82.7% decline year-over-year, with annual Adjusted EBITDA at $17.8 million [7] Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Profertil was completed on December 18, 2025, for approximately $1.1 billion for a 90% equity stake [3][6] - The acquisition was financed through a mix of existing cash, new long-term debt, equity issuance, and seller financing, raising about $300 million through the issuance of 42 million shares [3] Operational Changes - Following the acquisition, the company reassessed its organizational structure and will operate in three reportable segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy; Fertilizers; and Food & Agriculture [3] - The Fertilizers segment is expected to see a recovery in Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 due to normalized operations and increased urea prices driven by market conditions [6] Market Outlook - The company anticipates low-double-digit growth in crushing volume for 2026, assuming normal weather conditions [5] - The Fertilizers business is positioned for margin expansion due to fixed gas prices and a significant portion of sales remaining open to market prices [6]

Bananas, coffee, chickens and rice destined for the Gulf region have been stranded or diverted and shippers are figuring out alternative routes https://t.co/dDnvtQCY7d ...

Thai rice exports to the Middle East were halted as the escalating war disrupts shipments to the nation’s largest market for the grain https://t.co/nsJUN0bFOG ...

Military Operations - The United States and Israel have launched a significant military offensive against Iranian targets, with explosions reported in Tehran and Karaj [2] - U.S. Defense Secretary is scheduled to provide further details on the operations, which were delayed from an original target date of February 21 [3] - The military campaign will continue until the U.S. avenges the deaths of three American soldiers [3] Market Reactions - Asian financial markets are experiencing high volatility due to the escalating conflict, with major tech stocks in Hong Kong suffering significant losses [4] - SenseTime dropped by 8%, while Alibaba, Baidu, and Kuaishou all fell by over 4% [4] - Philippine shares slid 2.8% to their lowest levels since mid-February, driven by fears of a prolonged regional war affecting global trade and energy flows [5] Energy and Commodity Impact - Oil prices have surged in response to the military strikes, complicating cost-of-living management in Japan [6] - Japan has no immediate plans to release its oil stockpiles despite the price spike [6] - The jewelry industry in India is preparing for potential shortages of gold and diamonds due to disrupted trade routes from the Middle East [7] - South Korea has released 150,000 tons of rice from state reserves to stabilize domestic food prices amid global uncertainty [7] Humanitarian and Diplomatic Developments - The military escalation has led to a humanitarian crisis in the Levant, with evacuations ordered in Lebanon [8] - Thousands have rallied in Yemen in support of Iran, indicating a potential widening of regional unrest [8] - Despite the violence, Iran is reportedly making efforts to restart talks with the U.S., although military operations will continue until objectives are met [9] Digital Asset Market - Bitcoin is trading at $66,199.39 as investors assess the impact of the conflict on digital assets and overall market sentiment [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in West Africa, but it highlights significant productivity growth in Ghana and Senegal, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these countries. Core Insights - The agricultural sector in West and Central Africa has shown an average growth of 4.2% per annum from 2001 to 2023, primarily driven by land expansion rather than productivity improvements. However, Ghana and Senegal have achieved notable productivity growth through various policy measures and investments [2][7][10]. - Ghana and Senegal have more than doubled crop output per hectare and increased agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) by at least 40% over the same period, distinguishing them from other countries in the region [10][49]. - Key factors contributing to the agricultural productivity growth in Ghana and Senegal include investments in rural infrastructure, agricultural research, and access to financial services, which have facilitated the adoption of improved agricultural practices and technologies [10][59][62]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the reliance of Sub-Saharan Africa on land expansion for agricultural output growth, contrasting with global trends towards productivity-led growth. It identifies geographic and policy-related constraints as significant barriers to agricultural development in the region [6][9]. Agricultural Productivity Growth - The average annual crop output per worker in West and Central Africa increased from $926 in 2001-2005 to $1,433 in 2021-2023, while cropland yield rose from $720 per hectare to $860 per hectare during the same period [31][32]. - Ghana and Senegal have significantly outperformed other countries in the region, achieving the highest agricultural labor productivity and crop yields by 2021-2023 [32][50]. Policy Factors Enabling Growth - The report identifies specific policies in Ghana and Senegal that have supported agricultural productivity growth, including the expansion of rural infrastructure, improved access to financial services, and increased investment in agricultural research and development [58][62]. - Both countries have maintained macroeconomic stability, which has encouraged private investment in agriculture and rural development [58][59]. Commodity Value Chains - The growth in agricultural productivity in Ghana and Senegal has been broad-based, affecting various commodities important for both domestic consumption and export markets. The report lists leading commodity value chains and their growth rates from 2001 to 2023 [72].

Trade Agreement Overview - The trade agreement between the US and Indonesia is expected to lower US tariffs and facilitate the purchase of approximately $33 billion in American goods by Indonesia [1][2] - Indonesia will avoid a threatened 32% tariff and instead face a 19% rate for most goods, enhancing trade relations [2][8] Economic Impact on Indonesia - Indonesia will eliminate levies on over 99% of US goods and remove non-tariff barriers, which is anticipated to narrow its $16 billion trade surplus with the US [4][8] - The agreement includes significant imports from the US, such as $15 billion in energy, $13.5 billion in commercial aircraft, and $4.5 billion in agricultural commodities [5] Benefits for the US - The pact aims to expand access to Indonesia's consumer market of over 280 million people, providing American companies with a more level playing field [3][9] - The agreement also addresses critical minerals, allowing US companies to extract them under favorable terms, which aligns with US efforts to reduce supply-chain dependence on China [7] Regulatory and Investment Changes - Indonesia will reform its pre-shipment inspection processes and eliminate tariffs on digital services, facilitating smoother trade [6] - The country has committed to facilitating $10 billion in outbound direct investment to the US, including in engineering, construction, and energy projects [6] Context and Challenges - The agreement comes amid market headwinds for Indonesia, including concerns over governance and credit outlook, which could impact investor confidence [11] - Lower duties may support foreign-exchange inflows as the Indonesian rupiah trades near an all-time low against the dollar [12]

Core Insights - The establishment of the "I Have Ten Acres of Land" cooperative and the registration of the "Qianqiu Tuo" trademark mark a significant development in rural revitalization efforts in Yanping Village, Zunyi City, with 30 spring emissaries recruited and 300,000 yuan allocated for agricultural support [1][2] Group 1: Cooperative Structure - The cooperative operates under a model where each spring emissary invests 10,000 yuan to manage 10 acres of land, with options for villagers to either cultivate the land themselves, have the cooperative manage it, or lease it for rental income [1][2] - The cooperative is responsible for seeds, standards, and sales, providing a safety net for participants [1] Group 2: Development Plans - The development plan includes a phased approach: starting with 300 acres of land, expanding to another 300 acres, and ultimately reaching over 1,000 acres [1] - The initiative emphasizes ecological and green planting practices to enhance market competitiveness for rice [1] Group 3: Community Engagement - The "Double Land Manager System" is implemented, where villagers act as production managers and spring emissaries as operational managers, fostering collaboration in agricultural practices [2] - Future plans include developing tourism around the terraced fields, such as leisure activities, homestays, and agricultural experiences, aimed at boosting local income and promoting local products [2]

Core Insights - Elixiir Foods has raised $9 million in seed funding to launch a ready-to-eat food platform targeting urban Indian consumers with "affordable premium" products [1][2] - The startup aims to build a tech and supply chain infrastructure to support its operations, starting with the Delhi NCR region [2][4] - The platform will offer a variety of products including fresh produce, dairy, meat, poultry, seafood, and daily essentials, with a focus on gourmet ingredients [3] Company Overview - Elixiir Foods was founded in 2026 by industry veterans Arvind Mediratta and Ambuj Narayan, who have extensive experience in the FMCG and retail sectors [4][5] - Mediratta has 34 years of experience in the industry, having held senior roles at major companies like Walmart and Procter & Gamble, while Narayan has over 25 years of experience in retail strategy [5] Market Context - The Indian urban consumer market is becoming increasingly health and brand conscious due to rising GDP, per capita income, and urbanization [6] - The foodtech sector is witnessing growth with various D2C brands and startups addressing the demand for healthier alternatives and product diversification [6][7] - Competitors in the ready-to-eat category include established names like Licious, Country Delight, and iD Fresh Food, indicating a competitive landscape [7]