中国宏观经济展望 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策略会 20250630 摘要 中国经济正经历新旧模式交替，房地产拖累减小，技术进步加速，但物 价仍低迷，反映出经济转型初期不同领域表现不一，需综合分析宏观形 势。 中国劳动市场调整缓慢，劳动密度下降，收入增速放缓，影响消费和物 价，总需求偏弱，预计 2025 年下半年延续"准均衡"状态。 预计 2025 年下半年货币政策将侧重结构性工具，财政支出增加，出口 保持韧性，全年经济增长率预计在 5%左右，核心 CPI 逐步上升。 房地产与整体经济相关性减弱，家电销售不再完全依赖房地产，更多受 置换需求驱动，表明中国经济进入新模式。 中国经济结构变化显著，新经济、绿色经济、医药经济、生物医药和高 端制造比重上升，房地产比重下降，新兴行业 IPO 占比提高。 技术进步提升中国经济复杂度，接近全球最高端水平，出口结构与欧元 区、日本互补，国产化加速，减少进口需求。 2025 年一季度进口下降但对 GDP 有正贡献，反映需求走弱、经济结构 转型和国产替代效应，进口减少成为积极信号。 Q&A 当前中国宏观经济形势如何？ 当前中国宏观经济形势呈现出一些积极和谨慎的特点。房地产 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Group 1 - The company, Zhe Kuang Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., issued convertible bonds totaling 320 million RMB, with a net amount of approximately 311.48 million RMB after deducting fees [3][4][12] - The bonds have a maturity period of 6 years, from March 9, 2023, to March 8, 2029, with an initial conversion price set at 48.79 RMB per share [4][5][8] - The company reported a revenue of approximately 653.11 million RMB for the year 2024, representing a 19.19% increase compared to 2023 [14] Group 2 - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 80.13 million RMB in 2024, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.47% compared to the previous year [14] - The total assets of the company increased by 8.56% year-on-year, reaching approximately 2.36 billion RMB by the end of 2024 [14] - The company has not experienced any delays in the payment of interest or principal on its various bonds and debt financing tools [14][15] Group 3 - The company has established a special account for the management of the funds raised from the bond issuance, ensuring proper oversight and usage of the funds [15] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had invested approximately 28.59 million RMB of the raised funds into its projects [15] - The company has not made any changes to the intended use of the raised funds, and the funds are being utilized as per the original commitments [15][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Suzhou Tianwo Technology Co., Ltd. has lifted its delisting risk warning and changed its stock name back to Tianwo Technology, following a significant improvement in its financial performance [1][2] - The company announced a one-day trading suspension on April 14, 2025, with trading resuming on April 15, 2025, and the stock price limit increased from 5% to 10% [1] - After resuming trading, Tianwo Technology experienced consecutive trading limits, achieving a total of 11 trading days with price increases [1] Group 2 - Tianwo Technology's financial performance for the year 2023 includes a revenue of 3.771 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.198 billion yuan, while the net asset at the end of 2023 was 114 million yuan [2] - The company faced delisting risk due to negative net assets reported in its 2022 annual report and consecutive years of negative net profit [2] - The company has received 108 litigation claims from minority shareholders, totaling 13.8419 million yuan, along with additional claims from 68 shareholders amounting to 13.7328 million yuan [1][2]

IPO Review and Registration Progress - A total of 75 IPO applications were accepted last week, with 48 companies aiming for the North Exchange, 12 for the Growth Enterprise Market, 7 for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 4 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards [2][3] - The highest fundraising target among the new applicants is from Zhenstone Co., which plans to raise 3.981 billion yuan for various projects including production bases and R&D [2][4] - Most of the newly accepted companies are expected to be profitable in 2024, with only two companies, Shiya Technology and Dapu Micro, projected to incur losses [4][5] Company Highlights - Zhenstone Co. is a national high-tech enterprise focused on clean energy fiber-reinforced materials, with projected revenues of 5.267 billion yuan in 2022, 5.124 billion yuan in 2023, and 4.439 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Dapu Micro, the first unprofitable company accepted for the Growth Enterprise Market, specializes in enterprise-level SSD products and aims to achieve profitability by 2026 [5] - Aomeisen, which passed the IPO review, is a smart equipment manufacturer with expected revenues of 358 million yuan in 2024 [6] New Stock Listings and Subscriptions - Guangxin Technology debuted on the North Exchange with a first-day increase of 500%, closing at 60 yuan per share [12] - Xintong Electronics is set to list on the Shenzhen main board on July 1, 2025, with projected revenues of 1.005 billion yuan in 2024 [12] - Tongyu New Materials will have its subscription on July 1, with an issue price of 84 yuan per share and expected total fundraising of 840 million yuan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic climate in China is showing signs of expansion, with key indices indicating a recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in June. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [3] - Production and new orders indices were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating accelerated manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [3] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continued to expand, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.1%, showing stability, although some consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction industry saw a significant increase, with a business activity index of 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [5] Group 3: Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [7][8]

Group 1 - The stock of Hanchuan Intelligent (688022) has a comprehensive score of 63.80, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows the following costs: 14.82 CNY for the current day, 14.33 CNY for the 5-day average, 13.55 CNY for the 20-day average, and 13.36 CNY for the 60-day average [1] - Over the past year, the stock has experienced one limit-up and one limit-down [1] Group 2 - The short-term resistance level is at 14.89 CNY, while the short-term support level is at 13.08 CNY [2] - The current trend is unclear, with the market waiting for the main funds to choose a direction [2] - The K-line patterns indicate potential reversal signals, with a long lower shadow suggesting a possible bottoming out [2] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 220.11 thousand CNY, accounting for -2% of the total transaction volume [2] - The net outflow from large orders was 56.17 thousand CNY, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 25.79 thousand CNY [2] - Related industry sectors include specialized equipment (1.88%), edge computing (1.41%), lithium batteries (1.16%), and industrial internet (1.53%) [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Recovery - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [2] Group 2: Price Index Recovery - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both rising by 1.5 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [3] - The increase in prices was influenced by rising international crude oil prices, particularly affecting the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries, while the black metal smelting and rolling processing industries saw a decline in price indices due to falling iron ore prices and insufficient terminal demand [3] Group 3: Business Activity Index in Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service industry business activity index was at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, with certain sectors like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while consumer-related sectors experienced a decline [5] - The construction industry business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across enterprises [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion reflected in the comprehensive PMI output index [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 蓝英装备 (Blue Eagle Equipment) has experienced a significant stock price increase of 20.0% as of June 30, 2025, closing at 25.14 yuan, with a trading volume of 365,400 hands and a transaction amount of 888 million yuan [1] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 258 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.0036 million yuan, down 687.55% year-on-year [1] - The company's liquidity ratios are as follows: current ratio at 1.309, quick ratio at 0.844, and debt-to-asset ratio at 54.88% [1] Group 2 - 蓝英装备 has made investments in 3 external companies and participated in 108 bidding projects [2] - The company holds 5 trademark registrations and 94 patents, along with 16 administrative licenses [2]

Group 1 - Fengcai Technology is conducting an H-share issuance with a maximum price of 120.50 HKD per share, aiming to raise funds for its specialized chip business [1] - The global offering consists of 16.3 million shares, with 1.63 million shares available for public offering in Hong Kong [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD, enhancing its resource portfolio [1][2] Group 2 - Mindray Medical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 5 million shares, approximately 0.41% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [3] - Degute is planning to acquire control of Haowei Technology through a combination of cash and share issuance, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [4] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital, also for funding purposes [5] Group 3 - Yueyang Xinchang has resumed production after completing maintenance on its main production facilities, positively impacting its operations [6] - Chengdu Xian Dao has terminated its major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach agreement on key terms [7] - Maglev Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital for personal financial arrangements [9] Group 4 - Zhongyan Dadi announced a cash dividend of 2.82 CNY per 10 shares and a capital increase of 3.99 shares per 10 shares [10] - Yunda Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 47.22 million CNY [12] - Victory Co. intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 CNY per 10 shares, amounting to around 36.06 million CNY [13] Group 5 - Shagang Group has invested 2.67 billion CNY in financial products while planning to use up to 8 billion CNY of idle funds for further investments [14] - Jiuyuan Yinhai's subsidiary won an 8.43 million CNY project contract, constituting a related party transaction [15] - China Railway Signal & Communication has announced the resignation of a board member due to personal reasons [16] Group 6 - China Rare Earth clarified that recent management changes have not affected its operations, ensuring stability in production [17] - Qixiang Tengda plans to conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton acetone plant for 60 days to enhance operational safety [19] - ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a 399 million CNY contract for computing power services, indicating growth in its service offerings [20] Group 7 - Ziguang Guowei repurchased 775,500 shares for approximately 49.62 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its market position [22] - Qin Port's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% of the total share capital for development needs [22] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expanding its market presence [24]