以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带 到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 刘昊 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 市场在4月经历了极致悲观定价后的快速修复，铜价从4月1日至今震荡幅度接近12%，但跌幅已经回落至4%下方，暗示商品定价的修复已经 完成大部分。进而另一个讨论是，市场在交易了4月初风险偏好释放并将利空定价一蹴而就后，修复式定价的上边界是否快要触及？ 我们理解这一问题的回答仍需要从中美双方的经济现实出发，美国仍然在交易滞胀中的"滞"，而"通胀未胀"；中国则是交易"通缩未 缩"。对于国内出口商而言，关税冲击促使企业寻找新的出口目的地，以东南亚、墨西哥以及加拿大为主，核心证据是国内往上述国 家出口的运费上涨，这些国家乐意承接贸易转口的利润，形成一轮主动从中国进口商品，使得国内出口数据不至于急转直下，这是国 内通缩未缩的核 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Bahia Core Insights - The agricultural sector in Bahia has shown significant growth and resilience, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to food security and economic stability [29][36][76] - The report emphasizes the need for policies that enhance competitiveness, sustainability, and inclusivity in the agrifood sector [29][86] Economic Performance of the Agricultural Sector - Brazil's GDP growth has slowed, with a recorded GDP of 7.6 trillion reais in 2020, reflecting a 3.0% annual growth rate, down from 12.6% in 2011 [33] - The agricultural sector's value added has been dynamic, with a 39.9% annual variation in 2020, contributing 5.7% to Brazil's total GDP [36][38] - Bahia's GDP growth decreased from 7.9% in 2011 to 4.1% in 2020, with the agricultural sector increasing its contribution to the state's economy from 6.9% to 9.2% during the same period [73][79] Evaluation of Support for Agriculture in Bahia (2017-2021) - The report utilizes OECD methodology to assess monetary transfers to agriculture, focusing on Producer Support Estimates (PSE), Consumer Support Estimates (CSE), Total Support Estimates (TSE), and General Service Support Estimates (GSSE) [86][90] - The PSE for Bahia is based on market price support and budget support, with a focus on key products like cocoa, cotton, and soybeans, which represent 47% of the state's agricultural production value [100][109] Summary and Recommendations - The report concludes with recommendations for repurposing public policies to foster a competitive, green, and resilient agricultural sector in Bahia, addressing the impacts of past policies and external factors [29][86]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Brazil or Santa Catarina Core Insights - The agricultural sector in Brazil has shown resilience during economic downturns, contributing significantly to GDP and food security, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic [28][36] - Santa Catarina's agricultural sector has experienced dynamic growth, with a notable increase in agricultural exports and contributions to the state's economy [75][56] - The report emphasizes the need for public policy reforms to enhance competitiveness, sustainability, and inclusivity in the agrifood sector [31][75] Summary by Sections Economic Performance of the Agricultural Sector - Brazil's GDP growth has slowed, with a recorded GDP of 7.6 trillion reais in 2020, reflecting a 3.0% annual growth rate, down from 12.6% in 2011 [33][34] - The agricultural sector's value added grew by 39.9% in 2020, significantly outperforming other sectors, and contributed 5.7% to the total GDP [36][40] - Santa Catarina contributed 4.6% to Brazil's GDP in 2020, showing an increase from 4.0% in 2011 [44] Evaluation of Support for Agriculture in Santa Catarina - The report evaluates monetary transfers to agriculture in Santa Catarina from 2017 to 2021, using OECD methodologies to estimate Producer Support Estimates (PSE), Consumer Support Estimates (CSE), and Total Support Estimates (TSE) [82][84] - The PSE for Santa Catarina reflects the annual monetary value of transfers to agricultural producers, while the CSE indicates the impact of policies on consumers [85][86] - The TSE quantifies all gross transfers resulting from agricultural support policies, providing insights into the overall support landscape for the sector [88][89] Recommendations - The report suggests reforms aimed at fostering a competitive, green, and resilient agricultural sector in Santa Catarina, highlighting the importance of adapting public policies to current economic realities [31][75]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Brazil and São Paulo Core Insights - The agricultural sector in Brazil has shown resilience and growth, contributing significantly to GDP despite overall economic slowdowns, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.6% from 2011 to 2020 [35] - Agricultural exports increased by 35.6% in 2022 compared to the previous year, highlighting the sector's importance in the economy [54] - The report emphasizes the need for policies that enhance competitiveness, sustainability, and inclusivity in the agrifood sector [27] Economic Performance of the Agricultural Sector - Brazil's GDP was recorded at 7.6 trillion reais in 2020, with a growth rate of 3.0%, a significant decrease from 12.6% in 2011 [31] - The agricultural sector's value added grew by 39.9% in 2020, indicating its dynamic role in the economy [35] - In 2020, the agricultural sector contributed 5.7% to Brazil's total GDP, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over ten years [37] Evaluation of Agricultural Support in São Paulo (2017-2021) - The report utilizes OECD methodology to assess monetary transfers to agriculture in São Paulo, focusing on Producer Support Estimates (PSE), Consumer Support Estimates (CSE), Total Support Estimates (TSE), and General Service Support Estimates (GSSE) [79] - The analysis covers the impact of state government agricultural policies on producers and consumers, excluding national policies [79] - The PSE for São Paulo includes market price support and budget support, with a focus on key products like orange, soybeans, sugar, beef, and pork [100]

日本首相石破茂透露，美国总统特朗普表示，希望将对日 贸易逆差缩减至零。对于谈判，石破茂表 示，不会做出重大让步，也不急于达成协议。特朗普在汽车领域对日本的不满主要集中在日本进口美国 汽车的数量，以及日本针对汽车进口存在的诸如安全测试标准、环保标准等非关税壁垒。除了汽车及零 部件外，日本以大米、牛肉、水产品、马铃薯为代表的农产品贸易保护政策也被特朗普"点名批评"，后 者要求日本取消关税以外的限制。 ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Geely Radar and Jiangsu Agricultural Reclamation Su Shun Group aims to integrate smart agriculture with low-altitude economy through the procurement of 1,000 new energy pickup trucks [1][3] - Geely Radar's CEO highlighted the transition from traditional farming to smart-enabled agriculture, emphasizing the role of low-altitude economy and new energy technology in addressing challenges such as low production efficiency and high costs [3] Group 1 - The first batch of long-range flying version pickups was delivered, allowing drone operators to efficiently charge and operate in the fields [1][4] - The new energy pickup features a 100-degree large battery pack supporting a range of 651 km, with a 21 kW industrial-grade external discharge function, enabling over 70 drone charging sessions per day [6] - The cost of electricity for drone operations has significantly decreased from 4 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.5 yuan, improving efficiency by two times compared to traditional fuel generators [6] Group 2 - The integration of vehicle systems with cloud management allows for real-time sharing and precise analysis of drone operation data, reducing labor costs by over 30% [6] - The partnership is expected to accelerate the mechanization and intelligence of agricultural practices, promoting a collaborative operation model involving "people, vehicles, machines, and cloud" [6] - Future developments include the implementation of a "vehicle-machine-cloud" intelligent inspection system for agricultural management and disaster warning applications [6]

Group 1 - Japan is reviewing non-tariff trade barriers that are opposed by U.S. President Trump, particularly regulations on automobile and agricultural product imports [1]

A股这边，惊心动魄的一周结束了，虽然绝大多数人还是亏钱的，但我估计大家的心情应该还是可以的。 以Wind全A为例，周一跌了9%之后，周二到周五连涨4天，累计涨幅5.5%左右，虽然本周还是亏了4个多点，但人的情绪，主要是被环境 的边际变化影响的，换句话说，同样是亏4个多点，如果本周是每天阴跌1个点，跌5天，恐怕大家会是另外一个心情了。 就好像你家儿子，如果第一次考试考50分，后面每次考试都能多考10分，那后面的日子，全家可能每天都和过节一样；反之，如果一开始 考80分，结果后面每次掉10分，那家里可能就不太和谐了。 今天市场里表现最猛的板块，是芯片和半导体方向 ，ETF的涨幅榜， 都被它们霸占了，A股的半导体指数今天涨超5%，港股半导体指数涨 了接近6.5%，更为重要的是，两个指数，都已经完全收复了周一的大跌，A股的半导体相较于上周五的收盘价，还涨了0.5%，港股半导体 更是涨了4%以上。 换句话说，在资本的定价里，贸易冲突和关税战，利好国内的半导体和芯片产业。 其中，主要的原因，在于今天 半导体行业协会发布的， 《关于半导体产品"原产地"认定规则的紧急通知》 ，看到紧急通知这四个字，就 知道这是临时的关税战反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting the potential for gold to reach $3,200, influenced by various factors including U.S.-China relations, interest rate movements, and the economic environment in the U.S. [4][28] Summary by Sections CFTC Data and Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes the importance of the CFTC data released weekly, which reflects market sentiment towards precious metals and short/medium-term price judgments [3][4]. Gold Price Trends - As of March 31, international gold prices reached a new high of $3,100, with a potential to stabilize around $3,200 before further movements depending on market focus [4][28]. - The article notes that gold prices have risen significantly since last November, when they dropped to around $2,590 [4][28]. Fund Positioning - As of March 25, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3.7% to 599 tons, marking the 76th consecutive week of net long positions [5][9]. - The article indicates that the net long positions in silver also fell, while platinum saw a significant increase in short positions [5][9]. Market Dynamics - The article highlights that despite rising gold prices, there is currently a lack of excessive greed in the market, which could indicate further upward potential [4][27]. - It also mentions that the performance of gold and other risk assets may be affected by fluctuations in the U.S. stock market [4][28]. Economic Indicators - The article discusses the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, which could further influence gold prices [26][28]. - It suggests that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in the dollar and subsequently benefit gold prices [26][28]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that geopolitical risks and economic conditions will play a crucial role in shaping the future of gold prices, with a particular focus on the potential for a significant downturn in copper prices due to changing demand dynamics [19][29]. - It concludes that the next 12 to 24 months will be critical for the U.S. economy, especially if inflation pressures resurface alongside interest rate cuts [32][28].