Amazon's market cap surpassed that of Walmart's a long time ago, but only now have Amazon's sales overall surpassed that of Walmart. Really, over the past few years, we've moved away from comparing Walmart to Target and we've moved toward comparing Walmart to Amazon. And this is just another example.So many on both Main Street and Wall Street discussing this crossover this morning with Amazon surpassing $717 billion in sales in 2025, whereas Walmart posted annual sales of 713.2% billion for 2025. And it goe ...

Cal-Maine Foods ( CALM ) is the biggest egg producer in the US, in total and by conventional standards. About every sixth egg that finds its way to the consumer is sourced from the company.Always on the hunt for undervalued, promising stocks with a focus on risk and reward. Limited risks and decent to high upside by knowing what one's owning. I strongly believe that the best investment ideas are often the simplest. If contrarian, the better.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivat ...

Company Overview - Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is the largest egg producer in the United States, accounting for approximately one-sixth of the eggs consumed in the country [1] Investment Perspective - The company is viewed as a promising investment opportunity due to its focus on undervalued stocks, balancing risk and reward effectively [1] - The belief is that the best investment ideas are often the simplest, and a contrarian approach may yield better results [1]

Core Viewpoint - Institutional investors are showing continued interest in Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), the largest U.S. egg producer, amid fluctuating commodity prices and resilient demand for consumer staples, indicating selective confidence at current valuation levels [1] Institutional Investor Movements - Bridgewater Associates, LP increased its stake by 61,578 shares, bringing total shares to 199,418, reflecting a value of $0.02 billion, likely due to CALM's defensive positioning and strong balance sheet [2] - Gotham Asset Management, LLC raised its position by 16,959 shares to a total of 54,564 shares, valued at $0.01 billion, suggesting favorable valuation signals and confidence in CALM's earnings power [3] - Fisher Asset Management, LLC added 11,127 shares to reach 220,781 shares, valued at $0.02 billion, consistent with a strategy focused on durable demand trends [4] - AQR Capital Management, LLC increased its exposure by 9,104 shares to a total of 70,631 shares, valued at $0.01 billion, aligning with interest in profitability and defensive earnings [5] - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC added 2,366 shares, bringing the total to 9,247 shares, reflecting a focus on fundamentally resilient businesses [6] - Pzena Investment Management LLC made a small addition of 37 shares, typical of a disciplined deep-value approach [7] - Miller Value Partners, LLC initiated a new position with 62,000 shares valued at $0.01 billion, potentially indicating a contrarian value opportunity as egg pricing stabilizes [8] Overall Takeaway - The collective movements of these institutional investors indicate a mix of incremental conviction and fresh interest in Cal-Maine Foods, viewed as a defensive agricultural play with cyclical upside potential, supported by strong cash generation and essential product demand [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fiscal 2026 started strong with Q1 adjusted EBITDA significantly above expectations, leading to an increase in guidance [4] - The company maintained net leverage flat despite aggressive share repurchases and the sale of the 8th Avenue pasta business [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The foodservice normalized run rate was updated positively, contributing to the strong operating performance [4] - The egg segment saw volume growth, particularly in higher value-added eggs, with expectations of a 3%-4% growth rate moving forward [24][46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category has recently returned to a low single-digit growth rate after significant declines, attributed to changes in SNAP and a shift towards more affordable breakfast options [11][12] - The pet food segment, particularly dog food, has been softer compared to cat food, with expectations of gradual recovery as brands are relaunched [78] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on opportunistic capital allocation, particularly in M&A, as market valuations change [10] - There is no significant change in strategy despite competitor investments in the cereal category; the company is adjusting promotional spending to enhance efficiency [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the normalized run rate for foodservice and the ability to grow off that base due to favorable supply and demand dynamics [46] - The company is monitoring the impact of dietary guidelines on its portfolio but believes it is well-positioned with its current offerings [74] Other Important Information - The company has successfully closed two cereal facilities, with cost savings expected to impact the P&L starting in Q3 [80] - Management is cautious about future actions to streamline the portfolio, indicating no obvious opportunities at this time [80] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market valuations and M&A activity - Management noted that changing multiples make M&A more interesting, but it is still a subjective assessment [10] Question: Cereal category trends - Management indicated that recent improvements in the cereal category are linked to SNAP changes and a shift in consumer behavior towards more affordable options [12] Question: Foodservice business expectations - Management stated that the balance of the portfolio remains in line with initial expectations, with no material changes anticipated [22] Question: RTD shakes ramp-up - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges with production efficiency but remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the RTD shakes business [39] Question: Pet food category trends - Management confirmed that the dog food segment remains softer, but improvements are expected as brands are relaunched [78] Question: Cost savings from facility closures - Management expects cost savings from closed facilities to start impacting the P&L in Q3, with no immediate plans for further streamlining [80]

Group 1: Oilseeds and Oils - Domestic oilseeds and oils showed strong performance in January, with oil prices rising more than protein meal prices. Palm oil and rapeseed oil outperformed soybean oil [3][13] - The increase in prices is driven by a general rise in commodity prices, higher crude oil prices, and the destocking of oilseeds and oils [3][13] - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, with the largest state, Mato Grosso, advancing quickly. However, overall harvest progress is slower than in previous years, leading to delayed selling by farmers due to low prices and currency appreciation [3][13] - The upcoming weather conditions in South America, particularly in early February, will be crucial for soybean yield realization, which could lead to a decline in global soybean prices if no significant issues arise [3][13] - Domestic feed consumption is expected to remain stable compared to last year, with high soybean meal supply maintaining a balance in supply and demand [3][13] Group 2: Eggs - After the New Year, egg prices rebounded due to increased demand, but supply remains ample, leading to a cautious market outlook for future egg production [15][16] - As of January 30, the main egg futures contract saw a weekly decline of 1.44% but a monthly increase of 1.73% [15][16] - The increase in egg prices has improved farming profits, with a reported profit of 0.66 yuan per jin as of January 29, up 0.89 yuan from the previous month [16] Group 3: Corn - The USDA report in January was bearish for U.S. corn, leading to a significant price drop, with production estimates raised to a record 17.021 billion bushels [17][18] - Domestic corn prices showed fluctuations, with a weekly average of 2332 yuan per ton as of January 29, while sales in production areas increased ahead of the Lunar New Year [18] - The market is currently experiencing a balance in supply and demand, with traders building inventories and executing previous orders [18] Group 4: Pork - In January, live hog prices initially rose but then fell, with the national average price at 12.14 yuan per kilogram, down 0.66 yuan from the previous month [19][20] - The number of breeding sows decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact on future supply [20][21] - As of January 30, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 41.59%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week but a decrease from the previous month [22]

Core Viewpoint - The retail prices of eggs and white-feathered chickens in 36 major cities in China have increased due to post-holiday restocking, with eggs rising by 0.6% and white-feathered chickens by 0.1% from January 5 to January 11 [1] Price Changes - The price of eggs in southern regions has seen a significant increase, with Hefei and Xiamen experiencing rises of 2.3% and 2.0% respectively [1] - In the central region, the price of white-feathered chickens has also increased notably, with Zhengzhou and Wuhan seeing increases of 1.4% and 1.1% respectively [1]

Group 1 - Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:CALM) is recognized as a promising mid-cap consumer staples stock priced under $100, with analysts providing mixed ratings and price targets [1][3] - Pooran Sharma from Stephens lowered the price target from $95 to $85, indicating a potential upside of 15%, while expressing concerns over declining egg prices and oversupply issues [1][2] - Ben Klieve from Benchmark Co. maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $100, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 36%, citing strong margins and earnings despite falling egg prices [3] Group 2 - Cal-Maine Foods is the largest fresh shell eggs company in the United States, involved in the production, packaging, and distribution of eggs and egg products, including ready-to-eat offerings [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the overall food prices in Xiamen are stable, with a slight decrease of 0.56% month-on-month in December [1] - The average price of grains remained stable at 2.77 yuan per 500 grams, while edible oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.30% to an average of 74.74 yuan for 5 liters [1] - Vegetable prices experienced a significant drop, averaging 4.65 yuan, which is a decrease of 6.44% compared to November [1] - Pork prices continued to decline, with an average price of 16.14 yuan, down 1.71% from the previous month [1] - Other food categories showed minor price fluctuations, with fruits averaging 5.55 yuan (up 1.83%), poultry at 14.72 yuan (up 0.48%), beef and lamb at 39.86 yuan (down 0.23%), seafood at 21.13 yuan (up 1.68%), eggs at 5.16 yuan (up 0.39%), and dairy products at 2.80 yuan (down 1.41%) [1] Group 2 - The market analysis predicts that food prices in Xiamen will remain stable with a slight increase in January 2026, influenced by the New Year and cold weather [2] - Grain and oil prices are expected to remain stable, while prices for vegetables, pork, seafood, beef and lamb, fruits, and poultry may experience fluctuations but will generally trend upwards [2]

Core Insights - The company is experiencing a shift in its sales mix, with specialty eggs and prepared foods becoming a larger portion of total net sales, indicating a strategic focus on diversification and growth in these segments [2][11][27] Sales Performance - In 2026, shell egg sales accounted for 85% of total net sales, down from 94.5% in 2025, while specialty eggs represented 39.6% of shell egg sales, up from 33% [1][2] - Specialty eggs and prepared foods combined made up 42.8% of net sales, compared to 32.4% in the previous year [1] Financial Results - For 2026, net sales were reported at $769.5 million, a decrease of 19.4% from $954.7 million in 2025 [17] - Gross profit fell to $207.4 million, down 41.8%, primarily due to lower shell egg selling prices [19] - Operating income decreased by 55.5% to $123.9 million, with a net income of $102.8 million, down 53.1% [19] Growth Strategies - The company is investing in expanding its prepared foods capabilities, including a $15 million project to increase scrambled egg production by 17 million pounds annually by mid-fiscal 2027 [7][9] - The acquisition of Clean Egg LLC is expected to enhance specialty egg capacity and support local sourcing [11] Market Trends - There is a growing consumer preference for high-quality, convenient protein sources, with younger consumers treating eggs as a staple [6] - The company is evolving into a more resilient and diversified portfolio, focusing on specialty eggs and value-added prepared foods [7][12] Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a strong balance sheet and is virtually debt-free, allowing for flexibility in capital allocation and investment in growth opportunities [22] - The focus on cost drivers and efficiency is aimed at protecting margins through market cycles [14] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in specialty eggs and prepared foods, with expectations of specialty eggs exceeding 50% of total shell egg net sales in the long term [40] - The prepared foods segment is projected to achieve a 19% EBITDA margin, despite short-term fluctuations [42]