Paraguay’s central bank kept its benchmark interest unchanged at 6%, saying it expects inflation will stay within its target range the rest of this year https://t.co/WOqIB9fQFn ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience amid significant changes in economic policy, with the labor market near maximum employment and inflation decreasing from post-pandemic highs [2][4] - The unemployment rate has increased by almost one percentage point, a trend typically associated with recessions, while the labor market remains balanced [4][11] - GDP growth has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% in 2024, primarily due to a decline in consumer spending [12] Labor Market Dynamics - Payroll job growth has slowed to an average of 35,000 per month over the past three months, a significant drop from 168,000 per month in 2024 [8] - The unemployment rate stands at a historically low level of 4.2%, indicating a stable labor market despite the slowdown in job growth [8][10] - Labor supply has softened, with a notable decrease in labor force growth attributed to tighter immigration policies [10][11] Inflation Trends - Total PCE prices rose by 2.6% over the 12 months ending in July, with core PCE prices increasing by 2.9% [13] - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain goods, with expectations that these effects will accumulate over time [15][16] - Inflation expectations remain well anchored, consistent with the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [19][48] Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is designed to promote maximum employment and stable prices across various economic conditions [22][36] - The revised consensus statement emphasizes the importance of well-anchored inflation expectations and the need for flexibility in monetary policy [38][48] - The Federal Reserve will continue to conduct public reviews of its monetary policy framework approximately every five years to adapt to changing economic conditions [50]

特朗普持续施压美联储之际，关税政策正加剧其内部分歧。 美东时间8月20日周三，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，多数决策者支持暂不降息，仅沃勒和鲍曼两人 反对。 多数美联储官员强调，通胀风险远高于对劳动力市场的担忧。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9%。 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 内部分歧加剧 7月美联储继续按兵不动，将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%区间不变。 会议纪要显示，多数名决策者认为，通胀比就业风险高，特朗普关税影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 官员们围绕关税对通胀的影响，以及当前政策立场的"限制性"程度，展开了激烈辩论。 与会者强调，通胀长期超过2%的水平，加之关税对通胀的潜在持续影响，可能加剧长期通胀预期失控 的风险。 值得关注的是，美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒则以就业市场恶化，主张立即降息25个基点。 他们的不同意见，也标志着自1993年以来首次有两位理事与美联储主席意见相左。 目前，沃勒和鲍曼已经出现在鲍威尔2026年5月第二任期结束后继任的财政部候选名单上。 一是根据鲍威尔的新闻 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are experiencing rare divisions regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, with two dissenting votes during the July meeting signaling potential market concerns [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the key interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, despite dissent from two members who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - The upcoming release of the July meeting minutes is expected to reveal the depth of internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding dovish and hawkish stances on inflation [1] Group 2 - Continuous pressure from the Trump administration for interest rate cuts is raising concerns about the independence of economic policy decisions, as political influences may be affecting the Federal Reserve's actions [2] - The Federal Reserve officials have historically avoided political commentary, but the ongoing competition for the Fed Chair position complicates their ability to maintain this neutrality [2] - Investors are likely to scrutinize the meeting minutes for indications of political interference that could undermine the Federal Reserve's policy independence [2]

Monetary Policy - Namibia's central bank considers benefits of adopting a lower inflation target proposed by the South African Reserve Bank [1]

Currency Intervention - India's central bank sold at least $5 billion to support the rupee [1] - The intervention occurred as the rupee weakened towards a record low [1] Context - The action was taken this month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates last week, indicating that the central bank's inflation targets have not yet been met [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week [1] - This decision reflects the ongoing challenges in achieving inflation targets [1] Inflation Targets - The current inflation goals set by the Federal Reserve have not been realized [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold 450 million USD (buying 3.533 billion HKD) on August 1 to defend the linked exchange rate system as the Hong Kong dollar reached the weak end of the peg [1] - The banking system's aggregate balance is expected to decrease to 79.02 billion HKD by August 5 [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported an investment income of 194.4 billion HKD for the first half of 2025 [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of the Hong Kong foreign exchange fund reached 4,297.1 billion HKD, an increase of 137.7 billion HKD from the previous month [3] - The cumulative surplus of the foreign exchange fund stands at 877.9 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - The HKMA's CEO noted that progress in tariff negotiations between the US and major economies has stabilized investor confidence and led to a recovery in global stock markets [3] - The bond market benefited from the Federal Reserve maintaining its monetary policy targets, resulting in high yields for dollar-denominated bonds held by the foreign exchange fund [3] - The depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies in the first half of the year contributed to significant foreign exchange valuation adjustments for the fund's assets [3] Group 3 - The HKMA acknowledged a 0.9% month-on-month increase in total deposits from recognized institutions in June, with a 0.9% decrease in HKD deposits and a 2.4% increase in foreign currency deposits [3] - The investment environment for the second half of the year remains uncertain due to unpredictable US government trade policies and potential geopolitical tensions [3] - The HKMA will continue to adhere to a "capital preservation first, long-term value enhancement" principle and make appropriate defensive arrangements [3]

香港金管局维持基本 利率在4.75%不变。 ...