Economic Assessment - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to adjust its initial statement to acknowledge the rebound in economic activity, potentially stating that "recent indicators show economic activity has been expanding at a robust pace" [1] - The committee may add language indicating that its assessment of economic conditions has been affected by data shortages due to the government shutdown [1] Employment and Inflation - Analysts from CityIndex suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain its existing views on slowing job growth and high inflation due to data scarcity caused by the government shutdown, although the weaker September inflation data may prompt slight adjustments in inflation language [1] Balance Sheet Reduction Plans - Strategists from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Mizuho Securities, TD Securities, and Wrightson expect the Federal Reserve to halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, while Barclays and Goldman Sachs analysts believe the end date will be later [1] Voting Dynamics - Barclays indicates potential internal divisions within the decision-making body, with member Milan likely advocating for a more significant rate cut, while other officials may prefer to maintain current interest rates [1] - Generali Investments predicts a "three-way split" in voting, with one dissenter supporting a larger 50 basis point cut and others possibly favoring no change [1] - Analyst Yohay Ela notes that if Milan can gain support from members Waller or Bowman, it could lead to a rise in stock and gold prices, while putting pressure on the dollar [1] - CityIndex suggests that Milan is likely to vote for a 50 basis point cut, but others may not follow suit; however, dissent for maintaining rates could signal a strong hawkish stance, though this risk is considered low [1]

据报道，欧洲央行会议纪要显示，欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩建议维持利率不变，而非降息。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates last week, indicating that the central bank's inflation targets have not yet been met [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week [1] - This decision reflects the ongoing challenges in achieving inflation targets [1] Inflation Targets - The current inflation goals set by the Federal Reserve have not been realized [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive time during the July meeting [1] - Barclays anticipates at least one dissenting vote in the upcoming decision, with a possibility of two dissenting votes, indicating growing internal divisions within the FOMC [1] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman have expressed support for rate cuts, citing inflation nearing the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness [1] Group 2 - The June meeting minutes reveal that some officials still prefer to keep rates unchanged for the year, with Barclays predicting a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Deutsche Bank shares a similar outlook, forecasting two additional rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - UBS believes that the FOMC's collective decision-making will remain stable despite potential changes in leadership, although upcoming departures may tilt the voting structure towards a dovish stance [2] Group 3 - Market analysts note that tariff policies are increasing prices for trade-sensitive goods, contributing to inflationary pressures [2] - UBS is optimistic about high-rated bonds and gold allocations, projecting a year-end target price of $3,500 per ounce for gold [2] - The dollar is expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, with a year-end target of 1.21 for the euro against the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates after eight consecutive cuts is justified, reflecting a slight improvement in economic outlook since June and the appropriateness of a robust policy in an uncertain environment [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - There has been a slight improvement in the economic outlook since June [1] Monetary Policy - Maintaining a steady policy is deemed suitable in the current uncertain environment [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a rate cut this month to support a weakening labor market, marking a significant divergence from most of his colleagues who believe the job market remains strong [1][3][4] - Waller's speech emphasizes that inflation is near target levels and that the risks of a labor market deterioration warrant a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [3][4] - He identifies a precarious balance in the labor market, supported by both hard data (employment numbers, unemployment rates) and soft data (business hiring intentions, consumer confidence) [3][4] Group 2 - Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are the only two Fed officials publicly supporting a rate cut this month, highlighting their minority position among those advocating for maintaining current rates [4] - Waller has previously held differing views from colleagues, particularly regarding the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation, and he stresses the need to focus on core inflation, which is close to the FOMC's 2% target [4][5] - Despite recent data showing that tariffs have begun to raise some prices, core inflation has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [4][5] Group 3 - Waller warns that the risks of a weakening job market are significant enough to justify a rate cut, noting that while the economy is still growing, momentum has slowed considerably [5] - Other Fed officials express caution regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before deciding on rate cuts [5] - Market reactions indicate that investors expect the Fed to maintain rates this month, with a slightly higher than 50% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting cautious sentiment amid internal Fed disagreements [5] Group 4 - Waller is considered a potential candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair after his term ends in May, and his current stance aligns with President Trump's calls for looser monetary policy, adding a political dimension to his economic views [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan supports maintaining interest rates unchanged to continue cooling inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The current economic scenario requires the continuation of restrictive policies to manage inflation effectively [1] - There was previous disappointment regarding the low inflation rate, indicating ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - White House trade advisor Navarro states that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's decision to maintain interest rates is causing significant damage to the economy [1] Group 1 - Navarro emphasizes that the current interest rate policy is detrimental to economic growth [1] - The advisor suggests that the Federal Reserve's inaction is leading to adverse effects on various sectors [1] - There is a call for a reassessment of the interest rate strategy to mitigate economic harm [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic reiterated the expectation of one interest rate cut this year, while emphasizing the need to consider the latest data before making decisions [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Outlook - Bostic anticipates a rate cut in 2025 and three cuts next year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that maintaining the current labor market and a declining inflation rate justifies keeping interest rates unchanged [1] Group 1 - The current labor market conditions are deemed stable and supportive of the decision to hold interest rates steady [1] - A continuous decrease in the inflation rate is a critical factor influencing the Fed's monetary policy [1]