这波行情的直接引爆点，来自全球两大热点地区同时传来的紧张消息。 中东方面，美国与伊朗的博弈 到了剑拔弩张的边缘。 当地时间2月17日，双方在瑞士日内瓦结束了第二轮间接谈判。 尽管伊朗外长表 示已就"指导原则"达成共识，美国副总统也称会谈在部分议题上进展顺利，但核心分歧丝毫未解。 伊 朗坚持其和平利用核能的权利和导弹自卫权，而美国则要求伊朗必须彻底放弃核武器计划、大幅削减弹 道导弹项目并停止支持地区武装组织。 谈判桌上的僵局，伴随着军事上的极限施压。 多家媒体报道指 出，美军已做好"最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事打击"的准备，特朗普总统正在就军事行动的利弊进行最 终评估。 以色列媒体更是放出消息，称美国对伊朗军事打击的"时间表正在缩短"。 作为回应，伊朗革 命卫队在霍尔木兹海峡启动了军事演习，并威胁若遭攻击将报复美国在该地区的军事基地。 霍尔木兹 海峡是全球约20%原油运输的咽喉要道，任何风吹草动都牵动着全球能源市场和避险情绪的神经。 2026年2月19日，贵金属市场给所有投资者上演了一出"明跌暗涨"的好戏。 表面上看，黄金价格比昨天 收盘时微跌了一点，但如果你仔细对比昨天同一时间的价格，会发现它其实悄悄涨了超过1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, while risk appetite is recovering, leading to a temporary decline in safe-haven demand [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices initially fell below the $5050 mark but rebounded as the dollar weakened, stabilizing just below the psychological level of $5000, with limited daily declines [2]. - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, each by 25 basis points, which has contributed to a decline in the dollar index to its lowest level in over a week, providing temporary support for gold [2][4]. Group 2: Risk Sentiment - Short-term safe-haven demand for gold is under pressure due to reduced political uncertainty following Japan's early election results and signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [3]. - Improved risk appetite is directing funds towards riskier assets, which is limiting the upward potential for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Policy and Dollar Weakness - Ongoing discussions about the independence of the Federal Reserve are intensifying, with President Trump suggesting potential legal action if the newly nominated chair does not support rate cuts, which is increasing market concerns about policy intervention [4]. - The market widely expects the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve to occur in June, maintaining a weak and fluctuating dollar environment [4]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Analysts from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce note that the dollar continues to face pressure, while currencies like the Swiss franc, euro, and yen remain relatively strong, influenced by warnings from Chinese regulators regarding potential risks in U.S. debt [5]. - Upcoming U.S. retail sales, non-farm employment, and CPI data are identified as key risk windows for the dollar, with weaker-than-expected employment and inflation indicators potentially leading to further declines in the dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices [5]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices are still above the upward trend line established since $4397.52, with $4819 serving as a significant support area [6]. - The MACD indicator remains above the zero line, but the histogram is contracting, indicating a reduction in upward momentum; the RSI is around 55, suggesting a relatively balanced market [6]. - If gold can maintain its upward trend support, bullish momentum may continue; however, a significant drop below key levels could lead to further corrections [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting signals a pause in interest rate cuts, reflecting a pivotal moment in the dollar's strength, suggesting a long-term decline in the dollar's dominance [2] Short-term Resilience - The dollar's short-term performance is shifting from being driven by economic data to being supported by political factors and the overall strength of the U.S. [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, indicating internal divisions and governance challenges within the Fed [3] - The U.S. economy's real GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised up to 4.4%, supporting the dollar's short-term resilience [4] Political Influence - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair, which led to a rise in the dollar index, reflecting market expectations of a hawkish policy stance [5] - Walsh's potential policies, including simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, could further strengthen the dollar in the short term [5] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Fed's cautious approach to inflation, acknowledging current levels above the 2% target while attributing much of it to tariff-induced price increases, aims to balance market expectations and maintain policy flexibility [6][7] - The ongoing RMP plan initiated in December 2025 aims to stabilize bank liquidity, indirectly supporting the dollar [6] Mid-term Dynamics - The dollar's ability to maintain a trading range of 94 to 99 points will depend on personnel changes, economic performance, and tariff policies [8] - The nomination process for the new Fed Chair introduces uncertainty regarding the Fed's mid-term policy direction, which will significantly impact the dollar's trajectory [8] Economic Performance - The Fed's upgrade of the U.S. economic activity description from "moderate expansion" to "robust expansion" is a key factor supporting the dollar's short-term outlook, though long-term sustainability remains uncertain [9] Tariff Policy Impact - The Fed's assessment of tariffs and inflation is contingent on the absence of new significant tariff increases, indicating potential volatility in the dollar's mid-term performance [9] Long-term Outlook - The long-term fate of the dollar hinges on the revaluation of its credit rather than its hegemonic status, influenced by the Fed's independence and personnel dynamics [10] - Trump's administration aims to weaken dollar dominance to enhance U.S. export competitiveness, which could lead to a managed depreciation of the dollar if successful [10][11] Scenarios for Future Dollar Value - If the U.S. successfully restores its domestic industry and maintains Fed independence, the dollar may experience a managed depreciation without a chaotic decline [11] - Conversely, if the Fed loses its independence and succumbs to political pressures, a significant decline in the dollar's value and a restructuring of the global monetary order could occur [12]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 29,735, having opened at 31,145 and reported a decrease of 2.43%, with a high of 32,382 and a low of 27,611, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] - The premium for silver in Shanghai has significantly narrowed to 3,600 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a cooling domestic sentiment, with short-term price increases facing pressure and substantial risks [3] Group 2 - President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50% on all aircraft exported from Canada to the U.S., raising concerns about renewed tensions in bilateral trade relations [2] - The market is closely monitoring the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, with implications for monetary policy and interest rates, as he has expressed a preference for lower rates while also advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [2] - Discussions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve are becoming a significant variable affecting the medium-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce his nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, concluding a months-long selection process that has generated widespread speculation about the future direction of the influential central bank [1]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Trump's final candidate list includes four individuals: Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder [1]. - The nomination process is led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Trump indicated that the chosen individual "won't be too surprising" and is well-known in the financial community [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Trump expressed his expectation that the next chair will actively pursue interest rate cuts, stating that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates globally and suggesting a reduction of at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, which has drawn dissatisfaction from Trump [2]. Group 3: Political Pressures and Investigations - There are indications that the Senate confirmation process for the nominee may face challenges, particularly from Senator Thom Tillis, who has stated he will oppose any Fed-related nominations until the Justice Department's investigation into the Fed is resolved [2]. - The Fed's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts was influenced by signs of stabilization in the labor market and persistent high inflation levels [2].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce his nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, concluding a months-long selection process that has generated widespread speculation about the future direction of the influential central bank [1]. Group 1: Nomination Process - The final candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Rieder, with the selection process led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [1]. - Trump indicated that the nominee would not be surprising and is someone well-known in the financial community, suggesting that many believe this person should have been nominated years ago [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Trump expressed his expectation that the next chair will actively pursue interest rate cuts, stating that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates globally and that rates should be lowered by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, which has drawn dissatisfaction from Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed and its current chair, Jerome Powell [2]. Group 3: Political Pressures - The confirmation process for the nominee may face challenges, as Senator Thom Tillis has stated he will oppose any Fed-related nominations until the Justice Department's investigation into the Fed is resolved [2]. - Powell emphasized the importance of the Fed's policy independence and advised against involvement in electoral politics [3].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in January is supported by cautious assessments of the economic fundamentals and rising political pressures[4] - After a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points, the Fed's policy stance is nearing a neutral range, making further rate cuts less likely in the short term[8] - The labor market shows resilience with a limited increase in the unemployment rate, while core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][10] Political Context - The ongoing political pressure from the White House complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with Powell facing significant scrutiny and potential threats to the Fed's independence[10] - The upcoming midterm elections may intensify the White House's influence on Fed policies, making it crucial for the Fed to maintain its independence by delaying rate cuts[10] Market Expectations - Current market pricing indicates a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in January, with minimal anticipation for immediate rate cuts[11] - The probability of Rick Reed becoming the next Fed Chair has significantly increased, which could influence future monetary policy direction[21][22] Future Projections - If economic data remains stable, the necessity for rate cuts will likely decrease, with the Fed expected to maintain its current stance until at least May, when a new chair may take office[10] - The Fed may consider 1-2 rate cuts within the year, depending on economic performance and political dynamics[10]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has reached a four-year low, driven by multiple factors including political uncertainty and comments from President Trump, which have intensified selling pressure on the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness Factors - The ongoing weakness of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, with the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies being a key driver [3]. - Tensions between the US and NATO allies over Greenland have reignited market concerns regarding the dollar's risk premium, leading to long-term bearish sentiment towards the dollar [3]. - The risk of a US government shutdown and speculation regarding the Federal Reserve chairmanship have further weakened global investor confidence in dollar assets, prompting European capital to reduce exposure to US assets [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The currency market has shown significant reactions, with the euro rising to 1.2081 and the pound reaching 1.3869, both marking four-year highs [4]. - Precious metals have surged, with gold nearing $5000 per ounce and silver showing significant gains, as investors seek to hedge against dollar depreciation [4]. - The US Treasury market is under pressure, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting a new high since September of the previous year, reflecting weakened confidence in US debt [4]. Group 3: Diverging Market Perspectives - Optimists believe that a weaker dollar will eventually boost US exports and that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates, providing implicit support for the dollar [4]. - Some analysts argue that the current decline has already priced in some negative factors, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound as European economic recovery slows [4]. - Cautious analysts highlight the risks associated with Trump's "chaotic policies," the US's $38 trillion debt, and the $10 trillion refinancing pressure, which could further undermine the dollar's reserve status [5]. Group 4: Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions will play a crucial role in determining the dollar's trajectory, with a focus on maintaining independence or delaying interest rate cuts potentially alleviating the dollar's decline [5]. - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the Greenland dispute and US-European relations, will influence the risk premium associated with the dollar [5]. - The pace of capital withdrawal from Europe, the resolution of US debt issues, and the consistency of Trump's policies will reshape the dollar's performance near its four-year low [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting on January 29, 2025, amid a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing inflation pressures [2][3]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy showed resilience with a revised GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and the previous quarter's 3.8% [3]. - The job market's growth has slowed but stabilized, reducing the urgency for the Fed to cut rates to support economic recovery [3]. - Inflation remains moderate, with the overall PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year in November 2025, aligning with market expectations [3]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed is likely to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, focusing on assessing the effects of previous rate cuts and avoiding excessive easing that could trigger inflation [3][4]. - The key focus for investors will be the Fed's forward guidance regarding inflation and employment outlook, as well as its assessment of current reserve levels [4]. Political Dynamics - External political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with ongoing legal issues involving Fed officials and speculation about the next Fed chair [5][6]. - The potential nomination of Rick Riedel as the next Fed chair has gained traction, with a 50% probability of selection, reflecting alignment with the White House's reform agenda [5][6]. - Riedel's proposals for monetary policy, including a call to lower the benchmark interest rate to around 3%, suggest a more dovish stance that could influence future Fed decisions [6]. Market Implications - Any subtle hints regarding the timing or thresholds for rate cuts during the upcoming meeting could lead to market re-evaluations [4]. - The Fed's policy direction will depend on economic data trends in inflation and employment throughout the year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [6][6][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies are expected to boost gold prices in the short term [6][6]. - The copper market is facing supply constraints due to incidents at major mines, which is likely to support copper prices despite high prices potentially suppressing actual consumption [36][36]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price support due to downstream inventory demand, while the lithium market is anticipated to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply expectations [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is expected to improve profitability as growth policies are implemented, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3][3]. - Current steel prices are showing seasonal trends, with expectations of price fluctuations following raw material prices [19][19]. - As of January 23, 2026, the total steel inventory has increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week, indicating a potential accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival [26][26]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing a tightening supply due to strikes affecting production at key mines, which may provide price support [36][36]. - The copper smelting processing fees remain negative, indicating pressure on the supply side, while demand is expected to rise in sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [36][36]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply and high operating rates at alumina plants, with expectations of price support from downstream inventory needs [46][46]. - As of January 23, 2026, the average price of alumina is reported at 2,657.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [50][50]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and economic data are influencing gold prices, with a notable increase in prices observed recently [54][54]. - As of January 23, 2026, gold prices have risen by 8.30% on COMEX and 8.07% on SHFE compared to the previous week [54][54]. Lithium and Cobalt - The lithium market is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to export tax incentives and tight supply conditions, with battery-grade lithium prices increasing by 12.46% recently [58][58]. - Cobalt supply is constrained due to limited export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand is driven by the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [6][6].