Core Insights - American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) is projected to double in value by 2030, with recent price target adjustments from Truist and JPMorgan following the company's Q4 2025 results [1][6]. Financial Performance - In the full-year 2025 earnings report, American Express recorded revenues of $72 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase [2]. - The company reported an EPS of $15.38, driven by an 18% rise in net card fees, which reached a record $10 billion [2]. - Spending across various categories was robust, with luxury retail spending increasing by 15% and international spending rising by 12% [2]. - Millennial and Gen Z customers now represent the largest share of US consumer spending for American Express [2]. Company Structure - American Express operates as an integrated payments company with four segments: US Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant & Network Services [3].

This story was originally published on Payments Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Payments Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Pay With Spire, a pay-by-bank provider offering merchants lower payments costs, on Thursday announced it has hired a former Fiserv executive, Jennifer LaClair, as its new chief executive. LaClair, who was Fiserv’s head of merchant solutions until December, said in an interview Wednesday that Spire sits “at an inflection point” in its growth as mercha ...

Core Thesis - PayPal Holdings, Inc. is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strategic pivot under CEO Alex Chriss and significant market mispricing relative to intrinsic value, currently trading at a 29% discount to its DCF-based fair value [2] Growth Initiatives - Key growth initiatives include Fastlane by PayPal for one-click guest checkout, unbranded processing via Braintree for high-volume clients, monetization of Venmo through various integrations, and expansion into small and medium businesses with PayPal Open [3] - The DCF model assumes conservative explicit growth of 6–4% over ten years, with PayPal having never experienced revenue decline in the past decade [3] Financial Projections - Long-term growth is projected at 2.6%, with a WACC of 9.4%, a 10x EBITDA exit multiple, a 21% tax rate, and reinvestment based on a 1.1 Sales-to-Capital ratio [4] - The bull case emphasizes strong free cash flow, self-correcting valuation, underappreciated margin recovery, and improved user experience from platform simplification [4] Market Positioning - Despite slower growth, the market has over-discounted risk, creating a favorable entry point for investors [5] - PayPal's combination of discounted valuation, strategic initiatives, and resilient financial profile supports maintaining a modest position of 2–3% of a diversified portfolio [5] Historical Context - The stock price has depreciated by approximately 18.45% since previous coverage due to market concerns over slower margin expansion, but the current analysis emphasizes DCF-based upside and the importance of buybacks and margin normalization [6]

Core Insights - Corpay (CPAY) reported $1.25 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 20.7% and an EPS of $6.04 compared to $5.36 a year ago, exceeding both revenue and EPS consensus estimates [1] Financial Performance - The reported revenue of $1.25 billion was a surprise of +0.63% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 billion, while the EPS surprise was +1.47% against the consensus estimate of $5.95 [1] - Corpay's shares have returned -8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.9% change, and the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [3] Key Metrics - Corporate Payments spend volume reached 81.43 million, exceeding the estimated 67.64 million [4] - Lodging Payments room nights totaled 7.9 million, below the estimated 10.07 million [4] - Revenues per room night in Lodging Payments were $14.18, surpassing the $11.96 average estimate [4] - Revenues from Corporate Payments were $480.79 million, representing a +38.9% year-over-year change, and exceeded the average estimate of $475.81 million [4] - Revenues from Vehicle Payments were $572.85 million, reflecting a +15.1% year-over-year change, also surpassing the average estimate of $566.51 million [4] - Revenues from Lodging Payments were $112.51 million, which is a -6.9% year-over-year change and below the average estimate of $119.8 million [4] - Revenues from Other Payments were $82.07 million, exceeding the estimated $79.37 million and showing a +17.8% year-over-year change [4]

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings, Inc. is under investigation for potential securities claims due to a significant discrepancy between its prior outlook and actual fourth quarter 2025 results [1] Group 1: Analyst Expectations and Company Communications - On January 28, 2026, Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded PayPal's price target from $70 to $50, followed by Morgan Stanley on January 29, 2026, citing slower checkout growth [2] - Analysts had projected mid-single-digit revenue growth and higher earnings per share just one day before the earnings announcement on February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Actual Financial Results - PayPal's actual revenue for the fourth quarter 2025 was $8.68 billion, missing the estimate of $8.80 billion by $120 million, representing a 1.4% shortfall [3] - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.23, falling short of the consensus range of $1.30 to $1.33 by 5.4% to 7.5% [3] - The company's forward guidance for 2026 indicated a decline in transaction margin dollars and an adjusted earnings per share range reflecting a low single-digit decline to a slight positive gain, significantly below market expectations [3] Group 3: Management Communication and Market Reaction - During the third quarter 2025 earnings call on October 28, 2025, management did not signal any forthcoming dramatic revisions to the company's outlook [4] - Following the earnings miss on February 3, 2026, PayPal shares dropped 19-20% to approximately $42, marking a new 52-week low, with a reported increase in short interest as traders anticipated further declines [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.248 billion, up 21% year-over-year, and cash EPS of $6.04, up 13% [3][4][13] - Full year revenue reached $4.528 billion, an increase of 14%, with cash EPS of $21.38, up 12% [4][14] - Organic revenue growth for the full year was 10%, marking four out of the last five years with similar growth rates [5][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate payments segment achieved 16% organic growth in Q4, driven by a 44% increase in spend volumes [14][15] - Vehicle payments segment also saw 10% organic revenue growth, with strong results across the US, Europe, and Brazil [15][16] - The lodging segment decreased by 7% year-over-year, with expectations of low single-digit growth in 2026 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cross-border business continued to show resilience, with strong sales performance despite trade-related uncertainties [15] - The company noted a stable retention rate of 92.3% and a 29% increase in new sales year-over-year [4][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to simplify its portfolio, focusing on corporate payments and divesting non-core assets [8][19] - Key priorities for 2026 include enhancing USA sales, expanding payables, improving cross-border capabilities, and implementing AI solutions [10][11] - The company is optimistic about the macroeconomic environment, expecting favorable FX rates and lower SOFR rates to support growth [8][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2026 guidance, projecting revenue of $5.265 billion and cash EPS of $26, reflecting a 16% and 22% increase, respectively [7][20] - The company anticipates continued organic revenue growth of 10% in 2026, despite some headwinds from float revenue compression [20][22] - Management highlighted the importance of sales growth and the successful integration of acquisitions as key drivers for future performance [10][70] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares in Q4 for $500 million, with a total of $1.5 billion authorized for future buybacks [18] - The company has remediated a material weakness related to user access, which will be formally reported in the upcoming 10-K [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on payables monetization initiatives? - Management acknowledged the need to diversify payment options beyond virtual cards and is testing new methods like e-checks and instant payments, expecting to see impacts by Q2 or Q3 [25][26] Question: What is the organic revenue growth for domestic vehicle payments versus Brazil? - The US vehicle payments business saw approximately 5% organic growth for the quarter, with consistent results across Europe and Brazil [27][28] Question: What is the sustainability of the vehicle payments growth rate? - Management indicated that sales efforts are crucial for sustaining growth, with recent improvements in retention and approval rates in the US vehicle business [31][32] Question: What is the expected contribution from recent acquisitions? - Management is confident in achieving $1 of cash EPS from the Alpha and Avid acquisitions, with synergies expected to materialize in the second half of the year [36][37] Question: How does the company view the impact of potential tariff rollbacks? - Management believes that tariff certainty would benefit the cross-border business, as uncertainty previously affected performance [74][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.248 billion, up 21% year-over-year, and cash EPS of $6.04, up 13% [4][14] - Full year revenue for 2025 was $4.528 billion, representing a 14% increase, with cash EPS of $21.38, up 12% [6][15] - Organic revenue growth for the full year was 10%, marking four out of the last five years with growth of 10% or higher [6][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate payments segment grew 16% organically in Q4, driven by increased spend volumes, which rose 44% on a pro forma basis [15] - Vehicle payments segment achieved 10% organic revenue growth in Q4, with strong results across the U.S., Europe, and Brazil [16] - The lodging segment decreased by 7% year-over-year, with expectations of low single-digit growth in 2026 [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New sales or bookings increased by 29% year-over-year, indicating robust sales momentum [5] - Same-store sales turned positive, up 1%, while overall revenue retention remained stable at 92% [5][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to simplify its portfolio, focusing on corporate payments and divesting non-core assets like PayByPhone [9][21] - Key priorities for 2026 include enhancing U.S. sales, expanding payables, improving cross-border capabilities, and implementing AI solutions [10][12] - The company plans to leverage acquisitions, particularly the Alpha acquisition, to drive revenue growth and operational synergies [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the 2026 guidance, projecting revenue of $5.265 billion, up 16%, and cash EPS of $26, up 22% [8][22] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to be favorable, with stable tax rates and lower interest rates contributing to growth [9][22] - Management highlighted the importance of sales growth and retention in sustaining business momentum [34] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares in Q4 for $500 million, with a total of $1.5 billion authorized for future buybacks [20] - The company has remediated a material weakness related to user access, which will be formally reported in the 10-K [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on payables monetization initiatives? - Management acknowledged the need to diversify payment options beyond virtual cards and is testing new methods like e-checks and instant payments, expecting to see impacts by Q2 or Q3 [27][28] Question: What is the organic revenue growth for domestic vehicle payments versus Brazil? - Domestic vehicle payments achieved approximately 5% organic growth for the quarter, with consistent results across Europe and Brazil contributing to the overall 10% growth [29][30] Question: What are the expectations for corporate payments growth? - Management indicated that the corporate payments segment has the sales pipeline to support mid-teens growth, although float revenue compression may impact results [43][44] Question: What are the lessons learned from the PayByPhone acquisition? - Management noted that while the initial thesis for the acquisition did not fully materialize, they successfully increased profits and are selling the asset for a profit [51] Question: What is the outlook for the lodging segment? - Management acknowledged the challenges in the lodging segment but noted stabilization and improvements in new sales as key to future growth [63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.248 billion, up 21% year-over-year, and cash EPS of $6.04, up 13% [3][4][12] - Full year revenue for 2025 was $4.528 billion, an increase of 14%, with cash EPS of $21.38, up 12% [4][13] - Organic revenue growth for the full year was 10%, marking four out of the last five years with 10% or higher organic growth [4][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate payments segment grew 16% organically in Q4, despite a 200 basis points drag from float revenue compression [14][16] - Vehicle payments organic revenue growth was 10% in Q4, with strong results across the US, Europe, and Brazil [15][16] - Lodging segment decreased 7% year-over-year, with expectations of low single-digit growth in 2026 [16][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cross-border business showed resilience with strong sales performance, despite trade-related uncertainties [15][16] - Spend volumes in corporate payments increased 44% on a pro forma basis to over $81 billion [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to simplify its portfolio and accelerate the rotation towards corporate payments, with plans for divestitures and acquisitions [5][9] - Key priorities for 2026 include enhancing USA sales, expanding payables, focusing on cross-border capabilities, and implementing AI solutions [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in 2026 guidance, projecting revenue of $5.265 billion, up 16%, and cash EPS of $26, up 22% [6][21] - The macro environment is expected to be favorable, with lower SOFR rates and a stable tax rate contributing to growth [8][21] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares in Q4 for $500 million, with a total of $1.5 billion authorized for share repurchases [18][19] - The company has remediated a material weakness related to user access, which will be formally reported in the 10-K [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on payables monetization initiatives? - Management acknowledged the need to diversify payment options beyond virtual cards and is testing new methods like e-checks and instant payments, expecting to see impacts in Q2 or Q3 [26] Question: What is the organic revenue growth for domestic vehicle payments versus Brazil? - Domestic vehicle payments saw approximately 5% organic growth for the quarter, with consistent results across Europe and Brazil contributing to the overall 10% growth [28] Question: What are the expectations for corporate payments growth? - Management indicated confidence in mid-teens growth for corporate payments, supported by a strong sales pipeline and successful integration of recent acquisitions [41] Question: What are the drivers for lodging growth? - Management noted that while lodging has stabilized, the focus will be on generating new sales to drive growth, with expectations for low single-digit growth in 2026 [91]

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) shares are down during premarket trading on Tuesday following the announcement of a leadership change within the company. The stock’s decline comes as the company appointed Enrique Lores as its new President and CEO, effective Mar. 1. The Board of Directors expressed confidence that Lores will lead PayPal into its next chapter, but uncertainty often accompanies such changes. Enrique Lores Appointed as PayPal CEO Lores, who has been on PayPal’s Board for nearly five yea ...

Q4 2025 Earnings Release Supplement Refer to earnings release dated February 4, 2026 for further information ^ - dark blue-teal #00B5E2 ^ - light raspberry #981239 ^ - dark raspberry #981239 ^ - light blue-teal #59CBE8 ^ - cool gray 1 #E6E8E7 ^ Q4 2025 Results Safe Harbor Provision 2025 ^ This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about Corpay's beliefs, assumptions, expectations and ...