PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference May 28, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Alex Chriss - President and CEO Conference Call Participants Harshita Rawat - Bernstein Harshita Rawat I am Harshita Rawat, Bernstein’s senior analyst covering payments, processors, and IT services. And I'm delighted to be joined today by Alex Chriss, PayPal's, President and CEO at Bernstein's 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. Alex, thanks for joining us today. Alex ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall spending environment shows resilience in consumer sentiment, with stable employment numbers and wage growth, while inflation has moderated [5][6] - Payments volume in the US has remained stable, tracking better than Q2, reflecting consumer resilience [7][10] - Cross-border payments have shown variability, with an expected normalization for the rest of the year based on March and April averages [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cross-border business is diversified, with no single corridor exceeding 25% of volumes, and e-commerce now constitutes about 40% of the business [12][14] - Flexible credentials have seen significant adoption, with holders spending 40% more than non-holders, indicating strong market interest [46][49] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Visa's consumer payments volume was approximately $11.5 trillion last year, with a significant addressable market of $23 trillion still available [70][71] - In high digital penetration markets like Norway and New Zealand, Visa is growing significantly above underlying PCE, indicating strong market performance [73][74] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Visa is focusing on enhancing its value-added services, which are projected to grow at 20%, contributing significantly to overall revenue [87][88] - The company is leveraging partnerships in the crypto space, particularly with stablecoins, to enhance its payment infrastructure and expand use cases [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the macro sensitivity of the cross-border business but emphasizes the strength of Visa's diversification strategy [12][18] - The company remains optimistic about growth prospects in consumer payments, driven by technological advancements and market share gains against domestic schemes [81][82] Other Important Information - Visa's value-added services are expected to tap into a $520 billion addressable market, with various portfolios showing strong growth potential [87][90] - The company has made significant investments in Europe, opening new offices and increasing merchant locations, which has led to share gains against domestic competitors [85][86] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about recession sensitivity in cross-border payments? - Visa's diversification across spend categories and geographical exposure mitigates recession sensitivity, with e-commerce being more resilient than travel [12][14] Question: What is the future of commerce with AI and Visa's role? - Visa is focusing on intelligent commerce, leveraging AI to enhance consumer experiences and reduce friction in transactions [23][31] Question: How does Visa view the adoption of stablecoins? - Visa sees stablecoins as a significant opportunity for revolutionizing money movement and is actively working on various use cases [32][33] Question: What is the growth outlook for Visa's value-added services? - The value-added services segment is expected to grow significantly, with a diverse portfolio and strong market momentum [87][90] Question: How is Visa addressing the commercial card market? - Visa holds a 40% market share in commercial cards and is focused on innovation to capture a larger portion of the $200 trillion addressable market [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PayPal processed $1.7 trillion in volumes last year, indicating a significant scale in the ecommerce market [3] - Transaction margin has turned positive and has been growing for the last four quarters, reversing a trend of flat to negative growth [10] - Venmo grew over 20% in the last quarter, showcasing strong growth in customer engagement and monetization [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Branded checkout growth is in the mid-single digits, with branded experiences nearing high single digits [5] - The unbranded business has turned positive, indicating successful repricing and value-added services [11] - PayPal's offline product has seen 4 million debit card customers since its launch, with users transacting six times more than online-only users [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen shifts in advertising spend from the U.S. to Europe due to macroeconomic factors [4] - PayPal maintains a leading position in both the U.S. and international markets, with a significant share of ecommerce transactions [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation and has restructured its leadership team to drive transformation [8] - PayPal is prioritizing agentic commerce, aiming to facilitate seamless transactions through intelligent agents [17] - The strategy includes enhancing the branded business with personalized offers and rewards to differentiate from competitors [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a dynamic market environment but emphasizes stable trends and positive customer growth [5] - The company is optimistic about achieving 10% transaction margin dollar growth and 20% EPS growth in the long term [100] - Management highlights the importance of consumer behavior shifts towards agentic purchasing as a future growth driver [25] Other Important Information - PayPal has launched a partnership with Perplexity to drive branded PayPal and Venmo checkout [24] - The company is leveraging its extensive consumer data to create personalized shopping experiences for merchants [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key milestones or areas investors should monitor for confidence in PayPal's growth outlook? - Management emphasizes the importance of consumer growth and the momentum from recent innovations as indicators of future success [102] Question: Why is the current focus on the SMB market important? - The SMB market is seen as a vast opportunity, with PayPal aiming to consolidate services under one platform to better serve small businesses [89] Question: How does PayPal plan to differentiate its guest checkout experience? - PayPal's Fastlane product is highlighted as the best converting guest checkout experience, with a strategy for multiprocessor adoption to enhance scalability [95]

Core Viewpoint - Western Union is leveraging rising transaction volumes and resilience in its Branded Digital business to position itself for future growth, particularly in the Consumer Money Transfer segment, driven by strong performance in various regions [1]. Company Overview - Western Union, headquartered in Denver, CO, has a market capitalization of $3.1 billion. Year-to-date, its shares have decreased by 11.3%, underperforming the broader industry which gained 3.5%. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 5.18X, significantly below the industry average of 22.77X [2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Western Union's current-year earnings is $1.77 per share, reflecting a 1.7% increase over the prior year. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, matched once, and missed once, with an average earnings surprise of 0.6% [3]. Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for Western Union's 2025 revenue is approximately $4.12 billion, with the Consumer Services segment expected to contribute significantly. Revenue from this unit is projected to grow nearly 18% year over year [4]. Growth Drivers - Western Union is enhancing its service offerings through strategic collaborations with fintech firms and financial institutions. Innovations such as the "Send Now, Pay Later" product aim to increase market penetration, supported by the company's extensive global network [5]. Dividend Profile - The company offers a strong dividend yield of 10%, much higher than the industry average of 0.6%. In Q1 2025, Western Union returned $159 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with $925 million remaining authorized for repurchase as of March 31, 2025. In 2024, the total return to shareholders was $496 million [6]. Competitive Landscape - Despite its strengths, Western Union faces challenges such as a highly leveraged balance sheet with a total debt-to-capital ratio of 74.8%, significantly above the industry average of 42.7%. Additionally, rising competition from low-cost digital payment platforms poses a threat to its long-term market share [7].

Core Insights - ila Bank has partnered with Mastercard to enhance its consumer product offerings, focusing on affluent and travel products along with loyalty programs [1][2] - The collaboration aims to provide added value to cardholders through various lifestyle benefits, including dining, luxury shopping, and travel experiences, while ensuring transaction security [2][3] - The strategic agreement reinforces ila Bank's commitment to customer-centric solutions in a cashless economy, positioning it as a leader in the digital payments landscape [3][4] Company Overview - Established in 2019, ila Bank is a digital, mobile-only bank that offers a range of card products, including debit, credit, and prepaid cards, with personalized loyalty rewards [4] - The bank has received positive reception both domestically and regionally, focusing on bespoke banking solutions tailored to customer needs [4] - Innovative products available through the ila app include smart digital saving tools and a prize account that awards cash prizes to customers [5] Partnership Details - The partnership with Mastercard is aimed at driving innovation in the digital ecosystem, focusing on secure and rewarding banking experiences [3] - Mastercard has supported ila Bank since its inception, contributing to the introduction of various innovative products, including a multi-currency debit program and a loyalty program [3]

I wrote about PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL ) for the first time on 21 March in an article entitled PayPal: Come For the Value, Stay for the Growth . My thesis was that PayPal was attractively priced, and the decline inI am a UK-based long-only investor with a strategy which revolves around finding companies which can be multi-baggers over a 5-10 year time horizon, though, as a great man once said, my favourite holding period is forever. I am looking for companies that have a high probability of subst ...

Core Insights - Amazon Pay, originally launched as Pay with Amazon in 2007, was rebranded in 2017 and allows users to make payments on third-party merchant websites and apps using payment methods stored in their Amazon profile [1][6] - The service has expanded beyond online transactions to include credit and loan services, notably through a partnership with ICICI Bank for a Visa-branded credit card [2][6] - Amazon Pay has introduced features like Buy with Prime for streamlined checkout and integrated with Delhi Metro Rail Corporation for enhanced commuter convenience [3][6] Overview - Amazon Pay facilitates transactions with major credit and debit cards in the US and allows users in India to add funds for merchant payments and bill settlements [1][6] - The service launched Smart Stores in India, enabling merchants to create digital storefronts accessible via QR codes in the Amazon app [2][6] Business Model and Strategic Objectives - The report provides insights into Amazon Pay's business model, strategic objectives, and revenue strategies, including a planned standalone payment app in India by March 2025 [6][10] - It includes a comparative analysis with major alternative payment solutions and details on merchant registration processes [6][10] Significant Events - Key milestones include the launch of Amazon Pay Places for in-store payments in July 2017, P2P money transfers in India via UPI in April 2019, and a collaboration with Stripe in April 2024 [6][10] - The report chronicles significant events and achievements that have shaped Amazon Pay's growth and market presence [6][10] Products and Services - Amazon Pay's diverse product portfolio includes various payment solutions and services aimed at enhancing user experience and merchant support [6][10] - The report evaluates Amazon Pay's current product offerings and operational performance against competitors in the alternative payments industry [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying stocks that can fulfill their growth potential is challenging due to associated risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Shift4 Payments Overview - Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is currently recommended as a growth stock by the Zacks Growth Style Score system, which evaluates a company's real growth prospects beyond traditional metrics [2] - The stock has a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank, indicating strong potential for performance [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Shift4 Payments has a historical EPS growth rate of 138.8%, with projected EPS growth of 43.5% this year, significantly surpassing the industry average of 10.4% [4] - Double-digit earnings growth is a key indicator of strong prospects for growth investors [3] Group 3: Cash Flow Growth - The year-over-year cash flow growth for Shift4 Payments is 38.8%, well above the industry average of 4.3% [5] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 119.9%, compared to the industry average of 12.9% [6] Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current-year earnings estimates for Shift4 Payments have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 20.2% over the past month [8] - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements [7] Group 5: Conclusion - Shift4 Payments has achieved a Zacks Rank of 2 and a Growth Score of B, positioning it well for potential outperformance in the growth stock category [10]

Core Insights - Visa has reached a record high with a market capitalization approaching $700 billion, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [1] Company Performance - The analysis suggests that despite the high valuation, there are still opportunities for investment in Visa, implying that the company has not yet reached its peak potential [1] Analyst Perspective - The focus is on providing a clear and disciplined breakdown of Visa's business performance, emphasizing the importance of following numerical data rather than market narratives [1]

Core Viewpoint - XBP Europe Holdings, Inc. is set to present at the Emerging Growth Conference on May 22, 2025, providing an update on its business and inviting interaction from investors and analysts [1][2]. Company Overview - XBP Europe is a pan-European integrator of bills, payments, and related solutions, aiming to facilitate the digital transformation of over 2,000 clients across various sectors including banking, healthcare, and utilities [6]. - The company operates in 15 countries with approximately 30 locations and a workforce of around 1,500 individuals, leveraging a cloud-based structure to deploy its solutions across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [6]. Conference Details - The Emerging Growth Conference allows public companies to present their products and services efficiently to the investment community [4]. - XBP Europe will present for 12 minutes at 4:10 PM Eastern time, with opportunities for audience questions [2][5]. Audience Engagement - The conference is expected to attract potentially tens of thousands of individual and institutional investors, as well as investment advisors and analysts [5]. - Attendees can submit questions in advance or ask during the live event, enhancing interaction with the company's CEO [2].