Group 1: Report Information - The reports cover multiple industries including polyolefin, methanol, crude oil, natural rubber, urea, benzene - styrene, glass - soda ash, PVC - caustic soda, and polyester产业链 on December 3, 2025 [1][5][9][10][12][13][14][15][16] Group 2: Industry Price and Spread Changes Polyolefin - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 increased on December 2 compared to December 1, with L2601 rising 0.41% to 6831 yuan/ton and PP2601 rising 0.20% to 6410 yuan/ton [2] - Price differences such as L15, LP01, etc. also had corresponding changes, with L15 rising 8.33% [2] Methanol - MA2601 decreased 0.19% to 2132 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1, while MA2605 remained unchanged [5] - Methanol enterprise inventory increased 4.19% to 37.3712%, and methanol port inventory decreased 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [5] Crude Oil - Brent decreased 1.14% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased 1.15% to 58.64 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1 [9] Natural Rubber - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased 0.34% to 14850 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [10] - The basis of whole latex decreased 13.33% to - 510 yuan/ton [10] Urea - Futures prices of different contracts had slight increases or decreases, with the 01 contract increasing 0.72% to 1687 yuan/ton [12] - The difference between the 01 and 05 contracts changed, with an increase of 4 in the difference [12] Benzene - Styrene - Brent crude oil (January) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1, and styrene in East China increased 0.9% to 6680 yuan/ton [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Glass in North China decreased 0.92% to 1080 yuan/ton, and soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased 0.4% to 4510 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [15] Polyester Industry Chain - Brent crude oil (February) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and POY150/48 price increased 0.4% to 6485 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [16] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand and Inventory Polyolefin - Polypropylene supply maintenance due to high - level overhauls is expected to recover, and inventory reduction is accelerating but still higher than previous years; polyethylene supply is increasing, and although upstream inventory is decreasing, it is still higher year - on - year [2] Methanol - Inland methanol supply increased with device restarts, and coal - and gas - based profits were weak; port imports are expected to decline significantly in Q1 due to Iranian gas restrictions [5][6] Crude Oil - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventories of crude oil and refined oil increased according to API data [9] Natural Rubber - Supply is expected to increase during the seasonal peak production period, and inventory is accumulating, while demand from semi - steel and full - steel tire markets is weak [10] Urea - Domestic urea daily production increased 1.19% to 20.34 million tons on November 27 compared to November 28, and urea plant inventory decreased 5.10% to 136.39 million tons [12] Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is sufficient with device restarts and expected imports, and demand support is limited; styrene supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is also limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious in December [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash production decreased due to device overhauls but recently recovered, and glass factory inventory decreased slightly; real - estate data shows mixed trends with new construction area decreasing and completion area increasing [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is abundant, and demand support is weak; PVC supply pressure remains, and demand is in the off - season, but export orders are relatively good [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to be better in the medium - term, and PTA supply decreased more than expected, while demand support is stronger than expected; MEG inventory accumulation in December is expected to narrow, but supply pressure remains [16] Group 4: Industry Core Views and Strategies Polyolefin - The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2] Methanol - Inland supply increases, and port imports are expected to decline, with winter fuel demand providing support [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices are expected to continue range - bound, with Brent likely to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars/barrel in the short - term [9] Natural Rubber - The market is expected to maintain range - bound consolidation, with rubber prices expected to operate between 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [10] Urea - No specific overall view and strategy are clearly stated in the provided text [12] Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds; for styrene, short - term EB01 is recommended to be treated as wide - range fluctuations [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - range fluctuation, and glass is expected to face pressure in the medium - and long - term, with the 01 contract having pressure in December [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and PVC is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 7000 yuan/ton in the short - term; PTA is expected to be in a high - level range - bound in the short - term; MEG is expected to be in a range - bound in December; short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations, and processing fees are recommended to be shorted on highs; bottle - chip processing fees are expected to be squeezed [16]

2025 年 12 月 03 日 尿素：价格中枢上移，日内关注库存情况 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,687 | 1,675 | 1 2 -22940 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,682 | 1,682 | 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 86,067 | 109,007 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 219,302 | 219,728 | -426 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,887 | 7,937 | -50 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 289,568 | 366,666 | -77098 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -7 | 1 5 | -22 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -137 | -125 | -12 | | | | ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 基本面转好，盘面有抗跌性 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 2 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内偏强。现货价格稳中偏涨，虽成交走弱，但工厂 代发相对充足，挺价意愿强。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价 范围在 1620-1670 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产拉开序幕， 昨日内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减产，目 前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢低拿货 为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产，已有部 分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目前预收 订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素价格预 计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。其他工业需求刚需托底为主，房地产低迷拖 累开工。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库存维持去化，且 本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，供应端有减量预期而需求端刚需及冬储 需求托底，行情抗跌性强，短期偏强整理。 【期现行情】 现货方面：现货价格稳中偏涨，虽成交走弱，但工厂代发相对充足，挺价 意愿强 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen its stock price increase by over 25% in the last six trading days, with a current price of 9.4 HKD and a trading volume of 108 million HKD [1] Industry Summary - The domestic urea market in China is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with the main regional prices for small granular urea rising to a range of 1580-1680 RMB/ton [1] - Analysts expect the domestic urea market to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in December, with limited downside due to cost and production cuts, while the upward momentum is also constrained by supply-demand imbalances [1] Company Summary - Guozheng International recently reported that the second phase of the Jiujiang base was successfully put into operation in Q3 2025, utilizing more efficient, environmentally friendly, and energy-saving technology, resulting in a 10% reduction in comprehensive production costs at full urea production capacity [1] - By the end of 2025, the completion of the new chemical materials project at the Xinxiang base is expected to further expand urea production capacity and effectively reduce production costs by approximately 12% [1] - With the gradual release of low-cost production capacity, the profitability of Heartland Fertilizer is anticipated to significantly improve [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 25% in the past six trading days, with a current price of 9.4 HKD and a trading volume of 108 million HKD [1] Industry Summary - The domestic urea market in China is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with the main regional small particle ex-factory prices rising to the range of 1580-1680 RMB/ton [1] - Analysts predict that the domestic urea market will maintain a weak fluctuation pattern in December, with limited downside due to cost and production cuts, while the upward momentum is also constrained by supply-demand imbalances [1] Company Summary - Guozheng International recently reported that the second phase of the Jiujiang base successfully commenced operations in Q3 2025, utilizing more efficient, environmentally friendly, and energy-saving technology, resulting in a 10% reduction in comprehensive production costs at full urea production capacity [1] - By the end of 2025, the completion of the new chemical materials project at the Xinxiang base will further expand urea production capacity, effectively reducing production costs by approximately 12% [1] - With the gradual release of low-cost production capacity, the profitability of China Heartland Fertilizer is expected to significantly improve [1]

融券方面，红四方12月1日融券偿还1500.00股，融券卖出500.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额1.61 万元；融券余量8500.00股，融券余额27.40万元。 资料显示，中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司位于安徽省合肥市包河区宿松路与广福路交口信达中心A 座，成立日期2012年3月26日，上市日期2024年11月26日，公司主营业务涉及复合肥和氮肥产品的研 发、生产、销售和服务。主营业务收入构成为：复合肥产品92.93%，氮肥产品5.07%，硫酸钾产品 1.22%，其他(补充)0.79%。 12月1日，红四方涨0.31%，成交额9408.65万元。两融数据显示，当日红四方获融资买入额1614.49万 元，融资偿还1159.11万元，融资净买入455.38万元。截至12月1日，红四方融资融券余额合计1.65亿 元。 融资方面，红四方当日融资买入1614.49万元。当前融资余额1.64亿元，占流通市值的7.85%。 分红方面，红四方A股上市后累计派现3000.00万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，红四方十大流通股东中，南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第一 大流通股东，持股71.12万 ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --12月尿素月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 供应端：近期日产位于19-20万吨附近波动，高位日产持续压制尿素价格，目前气头装置暂未大规模集中限气停产，日产大幅同比偏高。按 照目前日均产量测算，11月份产量预计在599万吨，高于往年同期水平。进入供暖高峰期，气头装置受限气影响，逐渐开启检修停产，预计 12月日产将环比下降。 需求端：下游需求成交顺畅，东北地区掺混肥需求下，大颗粒走货转好，复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12月份将继续高负荷生产，目前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，为华北 大部小麦返青 肥、春玉米肥备货。其他工业需求刚需托底为主，房地产低迷拖累开工。 库存端：自十月中旬以来，尿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fubon Technology's oxygen-releasing fertilizer is developed based on its sand-type fertilizer granulation technology, which has been evaluated by experts to reach an internationally leading level [2] Group 1: Product Development - The company's self-developed SoilOptix soil CT scanning technology serves as the first step in a comprehensive solution for "cost reduction and yield increase" [2] - SoilOptix technology enables rapid soil testing and evaluation, guiding subsequent soil testing, fertilization, and customized plant protection techniques [2] Group 2: Agricultural Impact - The technology ensures that crops receive the most suitable nutrients at each growth stage [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement indicates that a major shareholder, Gao Jinhua, has released a portion of their pledged shares, which does not affect the company's control or pose any risks to its operations [1] Group 1: Share Pledge Details - Gao Jinhua has released 57,625,000 shares from pledge, representing 14.81% of their holdings and 5% of the company's total share capital [1] - The pledge was initiated on November 29, 2024, and will be released on November 28, 2025 [1] - As of the announcement date, the major shareholder and their concerted parties have a total of 135,290,000 shares pledged, which is 22.38% of their holdings and 11.75% of the company's total share capital [1] Group 2: Impact on Company - The release of pledged shares will not lead to any change in the actual control of the company [1] - There is no risk of forced liquidation associated with this pledge release [1] - The overall impact on the company is deemed neutral, with no adverse effects anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fertilizer stocks have shown strong performance, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as China Heart and Heart Fertilizer, Sinochem Fertilizer, and CNOOC Chemical, following the agreement on potash fertilizer import prices for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Heart and Heart Fertilizer (01866) rose by 4.55% to HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) increased by 4.58% to HKD 1.6 [1] - CNOOC Chemical (03983) saw a rise of 4.53% to HKD 2.54 [1] Group 2: Potash Fertilizer Pricing - The Chinese negotiation team reached an agreement with major international potash suppliers, setting the 2026 import contract price at USD 348 per ton (CFR), which is an increase of USD 2 per ton compared to 2025 [1] - This pricing strategy continues to maintain a "price lowland" for global potash fertilizers, ensuring stable domestic supply and pricing [1] Group 3: Urea Market Dynamics - In November, urea daily production is expected to remain high due to policy support and profit recovery, which exerts significant pressure on prices [1] - Export policy adjustments have been timely and continuous, alleviating pressure on the fundamentals and reducing the intensity of price declines [1] - Short-term spot prices are supported, leading to improved industry sentiment, with domestic urea market conditions remaining stable to slightly strong [1] - Rising coal prices are also contributing to support for urea prices by increasing cash flow cost lines [1]