Core Viewpoint - The domestic potassium fertilizer prices have increased by 50-100 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year, with current prices at 3300 yuan/ton for domestic 60% white potassium, 3400 yuan/ton for border trade 62% white potassium, and 3500 yuan/ton for port 62% white potassium. The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry over the next 2-3 years [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic potassium fertilizer inventory is at a low level, which supports an upward trend in spring planting potassium fertilizer prices. As of January 15, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was 2.51 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 450,000 tons [1]. - The annual potassium fertilizer "big contract" for 2025 was signed at 348 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2 USD/ton, driven by significant pressure for spring planting supply [1]. - The domestic spring planting consumption accounts for approximately 50% of the annual total, and with low inventory levels, there is potential for prices to rise unexpectedly [1]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - The global potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a high-price and tight balance phase, with strong demand from China, India, and Brazil, and low inventory levels contributing to significant price increases [2]. - The supply side is constrained, with no new production capacity expected in 2025, and only limited capacity additions projected for 2026-2027. The cost support for new capacities in Belarus and Canada is above 250 USD/ton FOB [2]. - The nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer markets are facing supply disruptions, leading to increased price levels, while potassium fertilizer remains a cost-effective option, with current CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia at 360-380 USD/ton [2].

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen its stock price rise over 7%, reaching a historical high of 10.97 HKD, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting global urea and methanol supply [1] Company Summary - China Heartland Fertilizer's stock price increased by 6.07% to 10.84 HKD, with a trading volume of 26.1 million HKD [1] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, spending approximately 8.84 million HKD to repurchase 874,000 shares on January 23 [1] - A clear share buyback plan was announced on January 12, allowing for the repurchase of up to 10% of issued shares for a maximum of 200 million HKD within the year [1] Industry Summary - Iranian officials have declared that armed forces are on full alert, which may disrupt natural gas supplies, impacting urea and methanol production globally [1] - Haitong Securities noted that prolonged conflict in Iran could lead to localized shortages of urea and methanol, benefiting domestic producers with significant production capacity and export volumes [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea is in a stage of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity, and the price center in 2026 will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. The price trend in the first half of the year will depend on the demand rhythm, and in the second half, it will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation, but the price is expected to correct in the short term, with the top range between 1850 - 1950. It is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The UR2605 is expected to operate in the range of 1650 - 1950, and it is recommended to lay out long positions around 1700 [11]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions**: Urea is in a supply - surplus stage. In 2026, the price center will decline, supported by export policies. The 05 contract has a price increase expectation but may correct in the short term [4]. - **Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations**: The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The UR2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1950. It is recommended to lay out long positions around 1700. For the basis strategy, the 11, 12, 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, 05 contracts are strong. For the spread strategy, the upper pressure of 05 is 1950 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1650 yuan/ton. There is no hedging and arbitrage strategy [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events - **This Week's Important Information**: **Likely Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter storage stage of the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons. **Likely Negative Information**: The current domestic urea daily production is 208,100 tons. After the narrow upward fluctuation, there is an obvious downward expectation. The domestic urea market is expected to rebound slightly and then remain in a stalemate, with the bottom range possibly rising [13]. - **Next Week's Important Events to Follow**: China's urea production this week is 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, with an increased probability of production [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - **Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation**: The domestic urea market continued to rise strongly over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new round of Indian tender news boosted market sentiment. The short - term market will continue to be strong. After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to conduct a positive spread between 5 - 9 contracts at a low price [15][16]. - **Industry Hedging Recommendations**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1%. Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [21][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain**: The report shows the seasonal trends of urea's fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, and natural - gas production cost, as well as the corresponding production profit trends [24][26]. - **Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking**: The report presents the seasonal trends of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - head capacity utilization, and natural - gas production capacity utilization [30]. - **Upstream Inventory Tracking**: The report shows the seasonal trends of China's urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the total inventory of ports and the mainland [32][34]. - **Downstream Price and Profit Tracking**: The report presents the seasonal trends of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and market price, as well as the market price, capacity utilization, production volume, and production profit of melamine [36][42][47]. - **Spot Production and Sales Tracking**: The report shows the seasonal trends of urea's average production and sales, as well as the production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [59][60][61].

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) is expected to report a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, driven by higher production, sales volume, and rising sales prices of potash fertilizers [2][3]. Group 1: Trading Information - As of January 23, 2026, Yara International closed at 59.82 yuan, down 0.33%, with a turnover rate of 1.74%, a trading volume of 141,200 shares, and a transaction value of 838 million yuan [1]. - On January 23, the net outflow of main funds was 33.46 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 34.71 million yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Earnings Disclosure - Yara International forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 between 1.66 billion yuan and 1.97 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 75.00% to 107.00% [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be between 1.82 yuan and 2.16 yuan [2]. - The growth in earnings is primarily attributed to increased potash production, higher sales volume, and rising sales prices, which have led to an increase in gross profit margin [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly view on urea is that the oscillation center will move upward. In the short - term, the sentiment in the chemical sector is positive, combined with the neutral fundamental situation of urea and the strong expectation for the spring plowing season, the price center will gradually move up. The demand - side driving force is slightly on the strong side, and whether the driving force can further strengthen depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation - The report shows the trends of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, BoDa, JinKai, DongPing), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts. It also presents the domestic and international spot prices of urea, including the ex - factory prices and market prices of small - particle urea in different regions in China, and the FOB and CFR prices of large - particle urea in different international regions [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons; in 2025, it was 6,640,000 tons; and in 2026, it is expected to be 6,510,000 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Multiple urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to early 2026, with the reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost - based) maintenance [26]. 3.2.3 Production - The daily production of urea remained at a high level when the production profit was at the break - even point [27]. 3.2.4 Cost - The raw material prices stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories increased. The report also provided cost calculations for different production processes such as fixed - bed and gas - flow bed in the Shanxi region [30]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea was currently in a profitable state [35]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, the export policy tightened. The report listed the monthly net import (export) data from 2018 to 2025 (E) [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has a seasonal strengthening trend. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the seasonal demand for different crops in different regions [46][49]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report presents the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [53][54]. - **Melamine**: It shows the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [58][59]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, while panel exports have resilience [60]. 3.4 Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.07% month - on - month decrease. As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [2][65]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the trends of international urea prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [69][70][71][72].

逢高空配 尿素周报 2026/01/24 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 行情走势 图1：尿素指数 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-14 2025-05-21 2025-05-28 2025-06- ...

Group 1 - The company expects a positive net profit for the year 2025, with an increase of over 50% compared to the previous year [1] - The performance improvement is attributed to stable production of potassium fertilizer, increased sales volume, and rising prices of potassium fertilizer in both international and domestic markets [1] - The preliminary financial data is based on the company's internal estimates and has not been audited by an accounting firm [2]

Core Insights - Colombia's total imports reached $5.8899 billion in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, primarily driven by a recovery in manufacturing imports [1] - China remains the largest source of imports for Colombia, accounting for 27.4% of total imports from January to November [1] Import Sources - Following China, the next largest import sources for Colombia are the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan [1] Growth in Specific Product Categories - Significant growth in imports from China includes: - Vehicles for passenger transport, which increased by 90% [1] - Nitrogen-containing minerals or chemical fertilizers, which surged by 428.2% [1] - Motorcycles and bicycles, which rose by 52.1% [1] - Self-propelled mechanical shovels, excavators, and loaders, which saw an increase of 444% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) has released its 2025 annual performance forecast, indicating a significant increase in net profit driven by higher production, sales volume, and sales prices of potash fertilizers [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Yara International's stock closed at 59.82 CNY, down 0.33% from the previous trading day [1] - The stock opened at 59.01 CNY, reached a high of 60.96 CNY, and a low of 58.16 CNY, with a trading volume of 8.38 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.74% [1] Group 2: Financial Forecast - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 166 million CNY and 197 million CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 75% to 107% [1] - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to grow by 86% to 121% year-on-year [1] - The anticipated growth in performance is primarily due to increased potash fertilizer production, sales volume, and rising sales prices, leading to an improvement in gross margin [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jinzhengdai's subsidiary, Maluzhao Phosphate Mine, is currently in the construction phase and is undergoing approval processes with relevant authorities, leading to uncertainty regarding the specific production timeline [1] - The company has advised investors to be aware of investment risks associated with the uncertainty of the production timeline [1] - The article highlights the ongoing developments in the company's operations and the importance of regulatory approvals in the mining sector [1]