交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存回落。需求端，农业需求受东北影响 回升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比有所回升。随着新疆中能等新增产能中 旬投产，供应端压力再次增加。出口内外价差大，出口较前期好转，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1630（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-24，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存153.7万吨（-2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期： ...

2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行业新闻】 尿素：区间运行，日内主要跟随现货情绪 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,654 | 1,630 | 2 4 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,649 | 1,633 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 208,209 | 97,807 | 110402 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 229,335 | 234,315 | -4980 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,390 | 7,302 | 8 8 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 686,604 | 319,523 | 367081 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -24 | 0 | -24 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -154 | -130 | -2 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 库存连续数周去化 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面低开高走，日内偏强。现货价格依然走弱，但受期货上涨影响，市 场低价成交良好，部分工厂出现停售现象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂价格范围在 1570-1620 元/吨，低端价格成交较好，高端价位成交氛围一 般。基本面来看，日产目前大幅偏高于历年同期，预计在气头装置季节性停产以 前，上游工厂装置日产将在 19 万吨以上波动，煤炭成本端，上涨趋势放缓，下 游需求有待验证，若旺季证伪，成本端支撑将下移。本期复合肥工厂开工负荷回 升，上周环保检查结束后，企业装置逐渐恢复生产，且东北地区部分装置开始开 工，部分装置开工负荷已提升至较高水平，目前企业通过原料采购情况进行预收 单的处理。近期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增 加，叠加储备需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。 整体来说，市场 低价成交增多，需求好转，盘面价格反弹，上方供应充足压制下，反弹受限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1630 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏强，最 终收于 1654 元 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-11-26 现货价格小幅松动 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-25，尿素主力收盘1630元/吨（-8）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1640 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1630元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1630元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：0 元/吨（-2）；河南基差：10元/吨（-2）；江苏基差：0元/吨（+8）；尿素生产利润100元/吨（-10），出口利润1012元/ 吨（+6）。 供应端：截至2025-11-25，企业产能利用率83.91%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为143.72 万吨（-4.64），港口样本 库存量为10.00 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-11-25，复合肥产能利用率34.61%（+4.29%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.20%（+4.72%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-0.59）。 尿素企业上周成交氛围较好，近几日成交氛围转弱，价格小幅回调。复合肥东北开工逐渐提升，山东湖北地区排 产增加，开工率提升。三聚氰胺开工提升，刚需采购。淡储陆续入场。新疆中能已出尿素，随着新增产能释放， ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted. After the export quota was finalized, market sentiment gradually cooled, and the price showed a narrow - range oscillation. The urea futures price is likely to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, supported by export news and reserve demand expectations, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited. The UR01&05 spread strengthened slightly recently, but its rebound space is also limited. For options, the short - term reduction of positions in the previously sold main call options is recommended, with attention to risk control and stop - loss [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted this week. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1,658 yuan/ton. The current urea futures market is in a relatively strong oscillation. After the new batch of export quotas was finalized, market sentiment cooled, but the price still showed some resistance to decline. The improvement in fundamental supply and demand is relatively limited. Although the industrial inventory has declined from its high level, the absolute quantity still exerts significant pressure, weakening the price rebound momentum to some extent. The price is likely to oscillate and adjust, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited [6]. Spot Market - This week, the prices of the urea spot market in various regions increased slightly. Due to export stimulation, traders and end - users appropriately increased their replenishment, and factory quotes were relatively firm, but the sustainability was insufficient. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong was about 1,550 - 1,630 yuan/ton, the reference price for first - hand traders in Linyi was around 1,600 yuan/ton, and that in Heze was around 1,590 yuan/ton [9]. Basis and Spread - This week, the basis adjusted within a narrow range. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 58 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 18 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 73 yuan/ton, adjusting at a low level [9]. Warehouse Receipts - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has gradually increased. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 6,958. Currently, the warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings, while those in other factories and warehouses are relatively low [10]. Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 229,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the maintenance volume of coal - based sample plants was about 18,230 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period; the maintenance volume of gas - based sample plants was about 46,700 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. As of November 13, the domestic urea operating rate was about 84.08%, an increase of about 1.37% compared with the previous period. This week, the urea output was about 1.3769 million tons, an increase of about 22,400 tons compared with last week. The continuous increase in the stock load pressure may drag down the subsequent urea price, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to improve due to the expected release of new production capacity [13][16][17]. Downstream Industries - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 13, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72% compared with last week. The profit of compound fertilizer continued to be compressed. The inventory of compound fertilizer decreased to about 656,300 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 6.36%. The seasonal slowdown of the compound fertilizer load may weaken its support for urea [19]. - **Melamine**: As of November 13, the domestic melamine operating rate was about 57.48%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine output increased to about 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.15%. The load is expected to remain strong in the future [20]. Inventory and Pre - sales - As of November 12, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was about 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of about 94,500 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 5.99%. The port inventory increased to 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous period. As of now, the pre - sales days are about 7.71 days, an increase of about 0.42 days compared with the previous period. The inventory pressure of the urea industry has been moderately relieved, but the absolute quantity is still large, and further inventory digestion is needed [23][24]. Industry Profits - As of November 13, the profit of the fixed - bed process was about - 327 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the profit of the coal - water slurry process was about 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the profit of the natural gas process was about - 282 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The urea industry profit has continued to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, so the profit is likely to continue weak adjustment [27].

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Urea [1] - Report type: Daily report - Report date: November 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - On November 20, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated upwards, closing at 1665 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1674 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1648 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,000 lots, an increase of 53,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 245,000 lots, a decrease of 4,000 lots from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Price - Urea 2512: Closing price 1651, change 0.06%, trading volume 6093 lots, a decrease of 538 lots, high 1658, low 1635, open 1648, close 1643 - Urea 2601: Closing price 1665, change 0.00%, open interest 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots, trading volume 209,245 lots, high 1661, low 1661 - Urea 2602: Closing price 1670, previous close 1668 [6] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Spot Price and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices remained generally stable, with slight differences in some regions due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1640 yuan/ton (basis -25 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1500 yuan/ton (basis -165 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1600 yuan/ton (basis -65 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1620 yuan/ton (basis -45 yuan/ton) [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry Information - Demand side: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 30.2%, and the operating rate of melamine was 53.2%. The new order transactions in the urea market were slow last week, but improved after enterprises cut prices. Currently, prices have risen slightly, and the market trading atmosphere has continued to warm up. The autumn fertilizer production of agriculture and compound fertilizer has entered the final stage, winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has declined slightly due to environmental protection factors. Although the operating rate of melamine has increased, purchases are still mainly for rigid demand [7][8] - Supply side: The winter storage process has gradually started, and the urea of Xinjiang Zhongneng has been put on the market. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the urea supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term. It is expected that the maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter will start gradually from December [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The current urea market transactions have warmed up, but the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, winter storage has not started on a large scale, and the operating rates of industries such as compound fertilizer remain low due to environmental protection and other factors. On the supply side, new production capacity is gradually being released, and the products of Xinjiang Zhongneng have been put on the market. It is expected that the urea supply will be loose in the medium and long term. The maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter may start gradually in December, which may support the supply to some extent. The current market is still mainly for rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate. The progress of winter storage and the impact of environmental protection policies need to be monitored in the future [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the launch of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. New production capacities have increased supply pressure, and exports have improved, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -4, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and exports improving compared with the previous period, but the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1650 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2847 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1654 (-11), the price of the UR05 contract is 1728 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1734 (-5) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have shown different degrees of change. For example, the production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a capacity growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1690 in the short term [7]. - The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production. Next week, 2 enterprises' devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production. The change in production is expected to be limited [8]. - The procurement of Northeast reserve demand has been relatively concentrated recently, but the procurement volume may slow down. The compound fertilizer start - up has increased slightly, and enterprises are gradually producing winter - storage fertilizers. The export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1630 - 1690 range in the short term [7]. - Market review: The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - Market outlook: Production may change slightly. Northeast reserve procurement may slow down, compound fertilizer start - up may increase slightly, export demand is increasing, and enterprise inventory is expected to decline [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures has fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [11]. - Inter - period spread: As of November 21, the UR 1 - 5 spread is - 74 [14]. - Position analysis: No specific summary information provided. - Warehouse receipt trend: As of November 20, there are 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared to last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of November 20, the mainstream price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu is 1620 yuan/ton (+30) [28]. - Foreign price trend: As of November 20, the FOB price of urea in China is 400 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31]. - Basis trend: As of November 20, the urea basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared to last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [41]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of November 20, China's urea production is 142.04 tons, an increase of 4.35 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. The capacity utilization rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous period [44]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.95%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 143.72 tons, a decrease of 4.64 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [47]. - Export situation: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.30%; the average export price was 432.05 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.83% [50]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer and melamine start - up rates: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers this cycle is 34.61%, a month - on - month increase of 4.29 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine is 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points compared to last week [53].