尿素期货

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冠通研究:弱势整理
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 11:04
【冠通研究】 弱势整理 制作日期:2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走,日内震荡承压。期现市场均呈现弱势状态,上游工厂降价 吸单后,市场成交氛围未见明显好转,山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂价格范围在 1640-1690 元/吨。基本面来看暂无过分波动,日产维持 19 万 吨左右,本周河南心连心及山西潞安有检修计划,预计本周产量环比上周减 少。需求端,工业需求有韧性,复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位,后续攀升 高度有限,近期受阅兵环保限产的影响,复合肥工厂出现限产减产情况,开工 负荷略有下调。成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平,目前暂未到秋季肥 高需求阶段,无集中备肥压力;其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停 车。尿素库存表现为累库,且目前位于近五年高位,大量库存压制行情上涨空 间,市场可流通货源多。整体来说,目前尿素处于弱势整理阶段,目前市场暂 无驱动,前期出口利多已消化,后续印标价格需关注是否超市场预期,短期反 弹沽空,后续秋季备肥及淡储支撑市场,且东北备肥也或将逐渐开始,下方有 支撑,空间相对有限。 【期现行情】 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格, ...
尿素日报:厂家降价吸单,下游采购谨慎-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:24
尿素日报 | 2025-08-26 厂家降价吸单,下游采购谨慎 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-08-25,尿素主力收盘1745元/吨(+6);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1710 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1700元/吨(-40);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1710元/吨(-30);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:-45 元/吨(-46);河南基差:-35元/吨(-46);江苏基差:-35元/吨(-36);尿素生产利润170元/吨(-40),出口利润1270 元/吨(+1)。 供应端:截至2025-08-25,企业产能利用率83.98%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为102.39 万吨(+6.65),港口样本 库存量为50.10 万吨(+3.70)。 需求端:截至2025-08-25,复合肥产能利用率40.84%(-2.64%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为46.60%(-3.22%);尿素企 业预收订单天数6.06日(-0.23)。 近日受出口影响情绪减弱,厂家降价吸单,下游跟进谨慎,现货跌至前低成交有好转。下游农需淡季,工业需求 复合肥进入秋季肥生产季节,但受阅兵影响,开工率下降,三聚氰胺、板厂开工也 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20250826
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 02:05
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑:国际价格,国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点:出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1810 | 1 0 | 01合约 | 1745 | 6 | 仓 单 | 5123 | 1050 | | 山东现货 | 1810 | 1 0 | 基 差 | 6 5 | 4 | UR综 ...
尿素盘面下行:尿素盘面下行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 10:22
【冠通研究】 尿素盘面下行 制作日期:2025 年 8 月 22 日 2025 年 8 月 22 日,尿素仓单数量 4073 张,环比上个交易日+500 张,其中 吉林宇源+500 张。 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 【策略分析】 今日低开低走,日内震荡下行。期货连续下行,市场成交氛围冷清,价格 多企稳,部分地区稳住下调现货价格。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂报价范围多在 1720-1740 元/吨。基本面来看暂无过分波动,日产维持 19 万吨左右,工厂装置上周产量增加,本期停产与复工并行,整体窄幅波动为 主,需求端,内需整体不足,复合肥工厂受限产影响,本期开工率下降,开工 率目前处于相对高位,短暂减产后,后续预计仍将回升产量,厂内成品库存继 续攀升,数月位于历史同期高位,目前秋季复合肥初期阶段,工厂暂无拿货生 产压力,减产后预计工厂对原料端的需求有削弱。本期内需不足,尿素厂内库 存表现为累库,目前尿素厂内库存处于近五年来最高的水平,制约尿素价格上 行高度。印标参与情况暂不明晰,市场情绪跟进谨慎,行情出现回落,警惕后 续出口消息拉涨盘面,基本面暂无明显支撑,短期仍偏空。 【期现行情】 期货方面 ...
尿素日报:下游开工下降,尿素震荡运行-20250822
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:20
尿素日报 | 2025-08-22 下游开工下降,尿素震荡运行 市场分析 价格与基差:截至2025-08-22,尿素主力收盘1764元/吨(-12);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1760 元/吨(0);山东地 区小颗粒报价:1760元/吨(-10);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1760元/吨(-20);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差: -4元/吨(+2);河南基差:-4元/吨(-8);江苏基差:-4元/吨(-8);尿素生产利润230元/吨(-10),出口利润1249 元/吨(-42)。 供应端:截至2025-08-22,企业产能利用率83.98%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为102.39 万吨(+6.65),港口样本 库存量为50.10 万吨(+3.70)。 需求端:截至2025-08-22,复合肥产能利用率40.84%(-2.64%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为46.60%(-3.22%);尿素企 业预收订单天数6.06日(-0.23)。 近期市场出口预期有所提振,带动尿素期货震荡偏强,现货跟随上调报价,但新单成交情况一般。尿素7月出口57 万吨,较此前市场认可的出口配额来看仍有较大出口空间,需关注后续兑现情况。 ...
尿素早评:出口预期影响市场-20250821
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated and declined, closing at 1776. The decline in the futures market was mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains high, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons. Although the current export policy is unclear, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply under the condition of sufficient domestic supply and low prices. It is necessary to prevent the excessive short - term increase in urea prices, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the decline. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.26% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1810 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 1.58%; UR09 closed at 1751 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.79%. [1] - Spot prices: In Henan, the domestic spot price was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%; in Hebei (small - particle), it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.72%; in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 40 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 2550 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton. [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1793 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1804 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1774 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1776 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1788 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 208,609 lots. [1]
尿素日报:尿素厂库累积,出口仍有扰动-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]
尿素:短期震荡有支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In the short term, the export - end information supports the urea valuation, but due to the slow export flow, the feedback on the spot end is relatively limited. Urea presents a pattern of oscillation with support. The daily focus is on the overall spot trading situation [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,788 yuan/ton, down 1; the trading volume was 457,226 lots, up from 401,998 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 208,609 lots, down 4,424; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 16350.35 million yuan, up 1966.39 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 6, up 81; the Fengxi - to - futures price difference was - 166, up 41; the Dongguang - to - futures price difference was - 16, up 81; the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 25, up 9 [1] Spot Market - Among urea factory prices, the price of Henan Xinlianxin and Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1,770 yuan/ton and 1,460 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices of Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 40 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 82.59%, down 0.65%, and the daily output was 191,200 tons, down 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, the overall enterprise inventory was on an upward trend, with inventory increasing in some provinces and decreasing in others [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]
出口情绪扰动,尿素继续上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
尿素日报 | 2025-08-20 出口情绪扰动,尿素继续上涨 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-08-19,尿素主力收盘1817元/吨(+63);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1740 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1730元/吨(+0);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1740元/吨(+0);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:-87 元/吨(-63);河南基差:-77元/吨(-63);江苏基差:-77元/吨(-63);尿素生产利润200元/吨(+0),出口利润1290 元/吨(-32)。 供应端:截至2025-08-19,企业产能利用率83.21%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为95.74 万吨(+6.98),港口样本 库存量为46.40 万吨(-1.90)。 需求端:截至2025-08-19,复合肥产能利用率43.48%(+1.98%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.82%(-11.28%);尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日(-0.24)。 近期市场出口预期有所提振,带动尿素期货大涨。尿素7月出口57万吨,较此前市场认可的出口配额来看仍有较大 出口空间,需关注后续兑现情况。受印标发布加出口消息扰动,市场成交氛围好 ...
尿素早评:出口预期影响市场-20250820
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:32
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term urea price will fluctuate on the strong side due to the market rumor of China exporting urea to India, which helps relieve the pressure of high domestic supply in the off - season of agricultural demand [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, UR01 closed at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton or 3.59% from August 18), UR05 at 1,839 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan/ton or 2.74%), UR09 at 1,783 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton or 3.00%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Spot prices in multiple regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 changed from - 60 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a change of - 49 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread changed from - 36 yuan/ton to - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 31 yuan/ton (0.60%) to 5,225 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5,100 yuan/ton [1] 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,756 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,826 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,744 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,789 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 213,033 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR increased in position and price, closing at 1,817. The rumor of China exporting urea to India led to an increase in position and price of urea futures, with a gain of over 3%. Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market, the key variable is exports, and opening up exports in the off - season of agricultural demand helps relieve the pressure of high supply [1]