Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report: Strong Supply and Demand, High-level Fluctuations [1] - Release Date: March 30, 2026 - Report Issuer: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international urea market is generally in a tight situation, while the domestic supply is relatively abundant after the release of daily production and national reserve supplies. The downstream demand mainly relies on high-nitrogen compound fertilizers from compound fertilizer factories. The future agricultural demand is expected to be concentrated around May and June. Currently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has gradually increased to a high level, and the finished product inventory in the factories has been transferred to the end-users. However, as the spring fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate may stabilize. Recently, the prices of raw materials have increased to varying degrees. After the increase in compound fertilizer prices, the follow-up of new orders has slowed down, and most of them are based on the execution of previous orders. The inventory in urea factories has significantly decreased, and the de-stocking pattern is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, the international urea price has risen sharply, while the domestic market has only been affected by sentiment and has not seen a synchronous sharp increase. The sufficient backlog of orders supports the spot price, and the market will mainly fluctuate at a high level under the situation of strong supply and demand. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the market sentiment may decline, but currently, it will mainly fluctuate narrowly at a high level during the peak season [2] Summary by Directory Spot Market Dynamics - The urea spot market remained stable over the weekend, with acceptable trading activity. Factories still had pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices to attract orders. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan remained stable at 1,810 - 1,840 yuan/ton [5] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price was affected by Trump's threatening remarks on Monday and followed the energy and chemical sector up. It opened lower and closed lower on Tuesday, opened lower and closed higher but still ended down on Wednesday, opened higher and closed higher on Thursday and Friday. As of March 30, the main May contract of urea closed at 1,882 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the settlement price of 1,884 yuan/ton on March 23. The weekly trading volume last week was 20.00668 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.49162 million tons; the open interest was 8.4714 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 257,200 tons. Since the conflict in the Middle East, urea has continued to fluctuate at a high level and fluctuated within a range with the change of sentiment. Last week, the decline of urea futures was greater than that of the spot price, and the basis weakened. As of March 30, the basis of the 05 contract was -22 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. As of March 30, the 5 - 9 spread was -46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 89 yuan/ton. On March 30, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, a week-on-week decrease of 5 [8][9][11] Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From March 19 to March 25, the weekly output of urea was 1.4756 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 2.88%, and the average daily output was 210,800 tons. Among them, the weekly output of coal-based urea was 1.2282 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.41%; the weekly output of gas-based urea was 247,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.14%; the weekly output of small-granule urea was 116,970 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.15%; the weekly output of large-granule urea was 305,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.83%. In the next cycle, 3 enterprises are expected to resume production, and 3 enterprises are expected to stop production. According to Feiyitong data, on March 30, 2026, the national daily output of urea was 219,900 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 87.67%. The international coal price increase and the general rise of the energy and chemical sector caused by the tight balance of overseas energy have driven up the coal price. However, as it is currently the off-peak season for electricity demand, the domestic inventory has increased, and there is no strong driving force for the price to rise in the off-peak season, but it is expected to perform well in the summer peak season. As of March 30, the quoted price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 was 761 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton; the market price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng was 950 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic liquefied natural gas price increased. As of March 30, the domestic benchmark price of liquefied natural gas was 4,494 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 304 yuan/ton compared with 4,190 yuan/ton on March 23. Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia increased. As of March 27, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,425 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of urea increased; the spread between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton. Last week, the spot price of methanol increased. As of March 27, the quoted price of methanol was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the spread between methanol and urea was 950 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 105 yuan/ton [15][17][19] Urea Demand Side - As of March 27, the quoted price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 3,380 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has gradually increased to a high level, and the finished product inventory in the factories has been transferred to the end-users. However, as the spring fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate may stabilize. Recently, the prices of raw materials have increased to varying degrees. After the increase in compound fertilizer prices, the follow-up of new orders has slowed down, and most of them are based on the execution of previous orders. As of March 27, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 51.24%, a week-on-week increase of 1.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.06%. From March 21 to March 27, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 51.24%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points from the previous period and 10.05 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The increase in urea price and international energy price has been transmitted to melamine, and under the sentiment of buying on rising and not buying on falling of downstream customers, the peak season is obvious, and the operating rate of factories has significantly increased this week. In terms of inventory data, as of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises in China was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 13.4%, and 167,300 tons lower than the same period last year. During the peak season of spring plowing, the downstream sales were smooth, and the downstream factories actively purchased and stocked up. The resonance of the peak season of spring plowing and the increase in international urea prices stimulated more active trading activity, and the inventory in urea factories significantly decreased. It is expected that the de-stocking pattern will not change in the short term, and the de-stocking will continue next week. The sample inventory at ports was 169,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week [22][23] International Market - Australia has a large rigid demand gap, and global supplies are concentrated in Australia. In addition, the supply and shipment in the Middle East are affected by the geopolitical conflict, and the prices of energy such as natural gas and oil have skyrocketed, accelerating the price increase of global nitrogen fertilizers. Next, attention should be paid to India's new round of tendering. As of March 27, the FOB price of small-granule urea in China was reported at $752.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $40/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was $622.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $742.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was $772.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $27.5/ton. As of March 27, the FOB price of large-granule urea in China was reported at $795/ton, a week-on-week increase of $72.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in Egypt was $767.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $42.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in the Arabian Gulf was $727/ton, a week-on-week increase of $47.5/ton; the FOB price of large-granule urea in the Baltic Sea was $686.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $21.5/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was $775/ton, a week-on-week increase of $25/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was $685/ton, a week-on-week increase of $26/ton [25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures showed wide - range fluctuations, and the spot prices were stable. The daily output of the urea industry was at a high level, and the开工 rate increased compared with the same period last year. Although the international supply was tight due to the conflict in the Middle East, the impact on the domestic market was limited. The domestic demand was gradually released, and the urea enterprises' inventories started to decline. Under policy pressure, the upside of the spot price was limited, and it was expected that urea would continue to fluctuate. Key factors to watch were the Middle East situation and domestic policies [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1882 (+10/+0.53%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory prices were stable, with different price ranges in various regions. For example, Henan's ex - factory price was 1810 - 1830 yuan/ton, and Shandong's small - particle ex - factory price was 1820 - 1840 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On March 30, the daily output of the urea industry was 21.91 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with the previous working day and 2.61 tons compared with the same period last year. The current operating rate was 93.04%, a 7.26% increase compared with 85.78% in the same period last year [4] Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes were firm, the market sentiment was okay, but the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined. New orders were smoothly concluded, and the ex - factory quotes were expected to remain firm. In Henan, the market sentiment cooled, the ex - factory quotes were firm, but the order volume decreased, and the ex - factory quotes were also expected to remain firm. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were firm, the market atmosphere was average, and the ex - factory prices were expected to remain stable. Although some domestic plants were shut down for maintenance, the daily output was still high. The international supply was tight, but the impact on the domestic market was limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate increased, but procurement basically stopped. The urea enterprises' inventories started to decline after a large inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. Domestic demand was released, and the manufacturers' order receipts were okay. Under policy pressure, the upside of the spot price was limited, and urea was expected to continue to fluctuate [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Related Charts - The charts showed the historical data of urea's daily output, total output, coal - based and gas - based operating rates, port inventory, enterprise inventory, enterprise pre - orders, compound fertilizer demand, compound fertilizer and melamine operating rates, and the arrival volume in Northeast China from 2023 to 2026 [10][14]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: March 30, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined, but the overall daily output remains at a high level in recent years, with sufficient supply [4] - Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand has shown differentiation, with the spring plowing fertilizer demand in the northern region entering the final stage and the topdressing demand in the southern rice - growing areas starting. The comprehensive inventory is being depleted [4] - The overseas price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price gap between domestic and international exports has widened. However, the relevant authorities have required enterprises to prioritize domestic spring plowing needs, so the impact of international prices is limited [4] - The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish. The UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons (- 106,000), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today, with high daily production year - on - year, recovering demand, depleting inventory, a large international supply gap, and domestic supply guarantee policies restricting exports [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Summary Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline, but the overall daily output is at a high level in recent years, with sufficient supply [4] - Demand: Industrial demand has recovered, and agricultural demand is differentiated. The comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The overseas price is strong, but domestic supply is prioritized [4] Other Indicators - Basis: UR2605 contract basis is - 17, premium - discount ratio - 0.9%, bearish [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons (- 106,000), bullish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4] Expectations - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today, considering factors such as high daily production, recovering demand, inventory depletion, large international gap, and domestic supply - guarantee export restrictions [4] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - Spot delivery product price is 1860, unchanged; Shandong spot price is 1900, up 10; Henan spot price is 1860, unchanged; FOB China price is 4925 [6] Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1877, up 2; the basis is - 17, down 2; UR01 price is 1921, up 1; UR05 price is 1877, up 2; UR09 price is 1928, down 11 [6] Inventory - Warehouse receipts are 8707, down 317; UR comprehensive inventory is 870,000 tons, down 106,000; UR factory inventory is 701,000 tons, down 108,000; UR port inventory is 169,000 tons [6] Group 7: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Good demand - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5] Bearish Factors - Daily production is at a high level in history [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term urea market is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. The weakening cost support from coal prices and relatively sufficient supply with limited growth in agricultural demand are the main factors. If coal prices rebound or agricultural demand exceeds expectations, urea prices may rise; otherwise, if agricultural demand is less than expected or enterprise inventories continue to increase, prices may face further pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of urea futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 1,862 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 144,800 lots, and the open interest was 192,100 lots, indicating active market trading. The basis structure shows that the spot market is slightly stronger than the futures market, but the overall spread remains at a low level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Raw Material Cost**: Coal and natural gas are the main raw materials for urea production, and their price changes directly affect urea production costs [3]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Urea supply comes from coal - based and gas - based urea plants, and demand is mainly from agricultural fertilization and industrial uses [3]. - **Agricultural Demand Seasonality**: Urea demand has obvious seasonal characteristics. Spring (March - May) is the peak season for agricultural fertilization, with concentrated demand for winter wheat top - dressing and spring plowing fertilizer preparation [5]. - **Industrial Demand**: Industrial urea is mainly used in the fields of wood - based panels, melamine, and vehicle urea, and its demand changes affect the overall consumption structure of urea [5]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory levels reflect the supply - demand balance, and changes in enterprise inventories directly affect the supply pressure in the spot market [5]. - **Policy Factors**: Fertilizer export policies, agricultural subsidy policies, and environmental protection production - restriction policies affect the supply - demand pattern of the urea market, especially the fertilizer export tariff policy and off - season reserve policy [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term, the urea market is expected to be volatile and weak. The cost support from coal prices is weakening, and the supply is relatively sufficient while agricultural demand growth is limited. Urea, in the middle of the industrial chain, is affected by both raw material costs and terminal demand. Changes in coal prices, agricultural demand, and industrial demand will all affect urea prices [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation; Inter - period: Observation; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural demand for urea is weakening while the industrial demand is strengthening. The ex - factory price of urea spot has reached the March guidance price, and the price is mainly stable during the key period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability. The off - season storage starts to be fully released in March. Affected by geopolitical conflict news, the bulk market has corrected, the urea futures market has fluctuated, and spot trading has slowed down. Supply has decreased slightly due to more temporary failures. In the demand side, the application of green - turning fertilizer in the central region is nearly over, and spring plowing is in progress in the South China and Southwest regions. The operation rate of compound fertilizer has continued to rise, with good shipment of low - price orders and some resistance to high - price markets. The melamine market is in good sentiment, with rising prices, increasing operation rate, and rigid demand for procurement. Recently, industrial demand has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle prices, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures about urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [24] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The report shows figures on urea production cost, urea production profit, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural gas - based capacity utilization rate [22][29] 3.4 Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Figures related to urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle and large - particle FOB in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, export profit, and on - disk export profit are presented [36][41][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Figures about compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pending order days are shown [49][54] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures related to factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume are provided [50][59][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. Although there will be some device overhauls in the short term, daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, while agricultural demand is differentiated. The overall inventory is being depleted. The external price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The domestic price increase is limited under guidance. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factors for urea include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices. The negative factor is the historical high of daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are at high levels year - on - year. There will be some device overhauls in the short term, but daily production will remain high. Industrial demand has recovered, with significant increases in the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the overall inventory is being depleted. The external price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The domestic price increase is limited under guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (unchanged) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 3, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons (- 14.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract disk will fluctuate. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand has recovered, agricultural demand is differentiated, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1890 (+ 10), the Henan spot price is 1860 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 4919 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 05 contract is 1863 (- 1), the basis is - 3 (+ 1), the price of UR01 is 1902 (unchanged), the price of UR05 is 1863 (- 1), and the price of UR09 is 1921 (- 2) [6]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts is 8785 (+ 73), the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons, the UR factory inventory is 80.9 tons, and the UR port inventory is 16.7 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates of 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The production volume has also generally shown an upward trend, and the net import volume and apparent consumption have fluctuated. The consumption growth rate has also fluctuated, with the highest growth rate reaching 17.9% in 2020 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - On March 25, 2026, the urea market opened lower and moved higher, closing down for the day The market trading activity was average, and factory quotes remained basically stable The high daily output and state - reserve supplies ensured domestic urea supply, contrasting with the overseas shortage The downstream agricultural demand weakened but still had some end - stage purchases The compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - start - up trend to reduce inventory, and were expected to continue to increase capacity utilization next week The price increased due to rising costs and terminal shipments, but the terminal demand might be suppressed after price transmission In April, the high - nitrogen compound fertilizer production peak season would provide stable and strong support for urea The inventory continued to decline, with a 13.4% week - on - week decrease, and was expected to keep decreasing next week The easing of the US - Israel conflict led to a weakening of the energy - chemical sector, and urea followed the decline slightly, with a relatively narrow amplitude compared to other energy - chemical products, and it would mainly fluctuate at a high level due to frequent geopolitical conflicts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1847 yuan/ton, closed down at 1863 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.32%. The trading volume was 192,064 lots, a decrease of 11,978 lots compared to the previous day Among the top twenty main positions, the long positions decreased by 5,059 lots and the short positions decreased by 10,003 lots On March 25, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,785, an increase of 73 compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: The market trading activity was average, and factory quotes remained basically stable The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [1][3] 2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price decreased The basis in the Henan region strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 3 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: On March 25, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,800 tons, the same as the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.03% [7] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 13.40% The pre - sale order days were 8.24 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1810 - 1940 yuan/ton due to complex and changeable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, high - volatility of international crude oil, temporary shutdown of some urea production facilities in the Middle East, cautious high - price purchasing by middle and downstream, and the expected release of reserve supplies after the export is halted [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped by 20 yuan to 1864 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area was 1860 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 8408 lots to 268,000 lots, and the short - position decreased by 12,492 lots to 310,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 209,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than the previous working day and 12,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 88.9%, 1.2% higher than 87.7% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 808,900 tons, 148,000 tons less than the previous period, a 15.5% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 167,000 tons, a 22,000 - ton month - on - month decrease [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 49.9%, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 53.3%, a 3.9% month - on - month increase [1] - Tender: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31st, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Export: In January 2026, urea exports were 307,900 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase; the export average price was 397.50 dollars/ton, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. In February 2026, urea exports were

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened lower and closed lower today, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The overall supply is abundant, the downstream agricultural demand is weakening but there is still some end - of - season procurement. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline next week. During the conflict, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a high level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and closed lower today. After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton. The daily output is around 21 - 220,000 tons, and the state - reserve supply has entered the market. The downstream agricultural demand is weakening but still has some end - of - season procurement. The compound fertilizer factory is maintaining a high - start - up inventory - reduction trend and is expected to continue to increase capacity utilization next week. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory has continued to decline this period. Affected by Trump's threat remarks, urea followed the energy - chemical sector up yesterday and adjusted today. Under the main logic of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the domestic market, the increase is limited and it is expected to oscillate at a high level during the conflict [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1866 yuan/ton, closed lower, and finally closed at 1864 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.06%. The trading volume was 204,042 lots (-16,190 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,953 lots and the short positions decreased by 8,763 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 742 lots, Wukuang Futures had a net long position of + 443 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of - 1,415 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,525 lots [2] Spot - After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 24, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,712, the same as the previous trading day [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 24, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.03% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. Although there will be some device overhauls in the short term, daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between export and domestic markets has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited due to guidance. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year. There will be some device overhauls in the short term, but daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between export and domestic markets has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited due to guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 24, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.3%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 million tons (- 14.2 million tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, the recovery of industrial demand, the differentiation of agricultural demand, and the depletion of inventory, it is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Urea Price - **Positive factors**: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. - **Negative factors**: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. - **Main logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3.3 Market Data - **Spot market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1860, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1870, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1860, unchanged; the FOB China price is 4910 [6]. - **Futures market**: The price of the 05 contract is 1884, up 43; the basis is - 24, down 43; the price of UR01 is 1910, up 40; the price of UR05 is 1884, up 43; the price of UR09 is 1943, up 49 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8712, up 213; the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 million tons, unchanged; the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 million tons, unchanged; the UR port inventory is 16.7 million tons, unchanged [6]. 3.4 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption has also been increasing, with consumption growth rates of 12.8% in 2019, 17.9% in 2020, 2.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022, 5.9% in 2023, and 8.4% in 2024 [9].