交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素周报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 本周概要： • 尿素周评：上个交易周UR05上涨0.76%，收于1847，合计增仓约36000张。技术上看，近期UR主力 合约运行在20日均线上，技术走势偏多。 • 大越五大指标中的主力持仓显示，近期UR高胜率席位持仓偏空。 • UR主力合约基差-17，盘面升水。 • 基本面来看：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持在 高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开工 回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素等 影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指 导价 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：农需支撑 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，午后翻红。由于农业需求相对旺盛，现货报价仍以稳 定为主，但交投氛围弱。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围 多在 1780-1810 元/吨。基本面来看，上游工厂装置无停产，后续依然有工厂复 产计划，以 21 万吨日产稳定为主。春耕旺季期间，暂无规模性长期检修计划。 下游复工复产预计在下周元宵节后，本期库存受假期发运及下游放假的影响， 累库 10%以上，但正值农耕旺季，农需拿货提供支撑，后续累库速度将逐渐放 缓，转入去库轨道。本期数据下游复合肥开工负荷提升至 33.41%，环比上周提 高 8.91%，预计下周元宵节后，将大幅提升开工负荷。农需助力春耕，目前农 业需求端备战小麦返青追肥，拿货情 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-02-27 尿素下游复合肥开工提升 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-26，尿素主力收盘1836元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：24 元/吨（+2）；河南基差：-6元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：24元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润295元/吨（+0），出口利润1165 元/吨（-22）。 节日后期部分农业需求启动，节后成交较好，主产销区现货报价达到2月尿素指导价，预计2月现货价格暂时稳定 为主。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡储货源2月投放10%。需求端春节后返青肥陆续开 启，春节前复合肥开工下降，节后前期停车装置陆续恢复，市场情绪好转，走货放量。三聚氰胺装置部分临时停 车，开工下降，刚需采购。尿素农需跟进，春节期间受物流影响，厂内库存累库，港口库存小幅累库。印度RCF2 月7日发布尿素进口招标，意向150万吨（东海岸70西海岸80），2月18日开标，有效期至2月28日，最晚船期3月31 日。共收到20个供货商总 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-02-26 尿素节后累库，农需跟进 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-25，尿素主力收盘1838元/吨（-17）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1860元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： 22元/吨（+27）；河南基差：-8元/吨（+17）；江苏基差：22元/吨（+27）；尿素生产利润295元/吨（+10），出口利润 1187元/吨（+11）。 供应端：截至2026-02-25，企业产能利用率91.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.60 万吨（+14.56），港口样 本库存量为16.60 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2026-02-25，复合肥产能利用率24.50%（-11.69%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.17%（+3.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-2.29）。 节日后期部分农业需求启动，节后成交较好，主产销区现货报价达到2月尿素指导价，预计2月现货价格暂时稳定 为主。供应端部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。部分淡储货源2月投放1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：节前收单基本完成 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，震荡上涨。大部分工厂已收单完成，假期间现货价格 平稳运行为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1740-1780 元/吨。今日肥易通数据日产已达 21.5 万，假期内多数装置正常运 行为主，短期没有长期停产计划。本周期货市场情绪偏强，现货节前收单顺 畅，年后即将迎来小麦返青追肥旺季，工业需求边际减弱中，上周复合肥工厂 开工基本持平，节前继续备货生产，同时前期待发进行，工厂厂内库存小幅消 化，终端走货尚可，本周将迎来假期前最后一次开工数据，预计环比下降，本 周库存大幅去化，周度减少 9.12%，但进入假期物流不畅，预计下周小幅累 库。今日大宗商品情绪整体回暖，尿素盘面同样偏强，节前流动性减弱，窄幅 波动为主。 【期现行情】 基差方面：今日现货市场主流报价上涨，期货收盘价上涨；以河南地区为基 准，基差环比上个交易日走弱，5 月合约基差 3 元/吨（-12 元/吨）。 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1785 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，震荡上涨，最 终收于 1797 元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5th to February 6th, the main contract of urea futures presented a game pattern of "high supply and off - season demand", with a fluctuation range of 1756 - 1830 yuan/ton. In the short term, affected by weak pre - holiday demand and abundant supply, the futures price may fluctuate. In the long run, the expectation of Indian tenders, the start of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion trend will provide support, and the price center is expected to gradually move up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of export orders and the recovery rhythm of agricultural demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of urea showed a "first decline then rise" trend this month. It declined in early January due to increased supply, rebounded in mid - January with inventory depletion, and fell since February due to weakening pre - holiday demand. The capital sentiment was cautious. The spot premium pattern was stable, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The basis was significantly repaired compared with the average in January, indicating stronger support on the spot side [3] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Supply side**: The production remained at a high level, and the operating rate increased steadily. On February 4th, the daily output was 20.99 tons, rising to 21.40 tons on February 5th, a year - on - year increase of 1.57 tons (+7.9%). The average operating rate in January was 85.78%, 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. On February 4th, the operating rate reached 89.14%, a new high for the year. The supply pressure was difficult to ease in the short term [5][6] - **Demand side**: It was the end of pre - holiday stockpiling, and regional price differentiation occurred. The top - dressing of winter wheat in the north was gradually ending, the number of advance orders of enterprises decreased, and there was resistance to high - priced purchases. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises remained low, the demand for melamine recovered but the volume was small. Overall, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid needs, and new orders were scarce [6] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. As of February 4th, the urea enterprise inventory was 91.85 tons, a decrease of 2.63 tons (-2.79%) from the previous week, with an 8 - week consecutive decline and a year - on - year decrease of 53.16 tons. The port inventory was 17.2 tons, remaining at a low level, and export shipments were mainly based on previous orders [6] - **Import and export**: The export resilience remained, and the expectation of Indian tenders increased. In 2025, the cumulative export was 489.35 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1678.3%. In December, the export was 27.83 tons, maintaining high - level prosperity. The market expected that India might announce a new round of import tenders in February (with a scale of about 1.5 million tons), and the international price was rising, so the export window was expected to open [6] 3.3 Associated Variety Linkage - **Coal and crude oil**: Coal - based urea accounted for more than 70%, and the price fluctuation of thermal coal directly affected the production cost. The average WTI crude oil price in January was 58.4 US dollars per barrel, and the rising energy cost provided bottom - line support for urea [7] - **Compound fertilizer**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was positively correlated with the urea purchase volume. The compound fertilizer production in January increased by 3.2% year - on - year, but short - term demand was difficult to expand due to the end of pre - holiday stockpiling [7] - **International urea**: The FOB price in Egypt rose from 452.51 US dollars per ton on January 8th to 477.51 US dollars per ton on January 29th, a rise of 5.5%. The high international price might drive domestic exports and spot sentiment [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, the new production capacity was limited, and the elimination of old production capacity accelerated, with the annual supply growth rate likely to drop below 3%. From March to July was the peak season for domestic spring plowing fertilizer use, and the agricultural demand in the second quarter was expected to increase by 15% - 20% quarter - on - quarter, which would support the price center to rise. If the Indian tender in February was successfully implemented, the export volume was expected to rebound to over 500,000 tons. The traditional maintenance season of gas - based urea enterprises (February - March) might lead to a short - term supply contraction, and coal price fluctuations needed continuous attention. In the short term, the urea futures were suppressed by high supply and weak pre - holiday demand, and the futures price might fluctuate in a range. In the medium and long term, the results of Indian tenders, the progress of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion speed needed to be tracked [9]

尿素日报 | 2026-02-10 印标提振市场情绪 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-09，尿素主力收盘1788元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1790 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：2 元/吨（-2）；河南基差：2元/吨（+18）；江苏基差：12元/吨（-2）；尿素生产利润225元/吨（+10），出口利润1081 元/吨（+148）。 供应端：截至2026-02-09，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.85 万吨（-2.64），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-09，复合肥产能利用率41.79%（+0.45%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数8.82日（+2.23）。 部分厂家收单好转，农业需求跟进，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应 量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家陆续进行春节收单。淡储采购进入后期，部分淡 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].