Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Consumer** sector, focusing on consumption trends and market dynamics in **2Q25** and the outlook for **2H25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumption Trends**: - Demand softened in **2Q25**, with unexciting demand continuing into **3Q25**. Some categories like restaurants, sportswear, prepared food, and spirits showed minor sequential improvements in August, attributed to normalizing policy impacts [1][2]. - Companies maintain a prudent outlook due to demand uncertainty, with expectations for significant demand-side stimulus being unlikely in the near term [1]. 2. **Pricing Dynamics**: - There are downside risks to pricing in categories such as sportswear and spirits due to demand softness. The restaurant sector is experiencing intensified pricing activities driven by food delivery subsidies and market education on new categories [1][2]. 3. **Structural Growth Opportunities**: - Continued demand for experience-based consumption, particularly in IP retailers, freshly made drinks, and pet foods [2]. - Opportunities for category expansion and penetration in beverages, cosmetics, and pet foods, with companies like Laopu experiencing upward brand cycles [2]. - Overseas expansion remains a growth opportunity, especially in home appliances, despite demand uncertainties [2]. - Lower-tier cities present untapped potential for various categories [2]. 4. **Sector Preferences**: - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, beverages, and pet food. Least preferred sectors are apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, and non-super-premium spirits [3][8]. 5. **Stock Recommendations**: - Buy recommendations include companies like Anta, Eastroc, Midea, and WH Group, while jewelry has been upgraded to Neutral due to stabilized sentiment [8]. 6. **Market Sentiment**: - The market is showing interest in turnaround themes, with shareholder returns supporting stock prices [2]. Additional Important Content - The macroeconomic environment remains resilient, but consumption-related indicators are muted. The GS macro team anticipates limited significant demand-side stimulus due to the stable GDP numbers [1][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among companies, with stronger brands gaining market share while weaker ones struggle [9]. - The conference call also touches on the impact of policy changes, including temporary interest and childbirth subsidies, which may influence consumer behavior [1]. Conclusion - The China Consumer sector is navigating a challenging landscape with softer demand and pricing pressures. However, structural growth opportunities and strategic sector preferences present potential investment avenues. The outlook remains cautious, with companies focusing on prudent strategies to manage uncertainties in demand and pricing.

Core Insights - Exosomes are emerging as a significant research focus in skincare due to their unique biological properties, offering potential improvements in penetration efficiency, action depth, and functional synergy compared to traditional ingredients [1] Group 1: Advantages of Exosome Skincare Products - Advantage 1: Exosomes have superior penetration potential, which may enhance ingredient delivery efficiency. Their nanoscale size (30-150 nanometers) and lipid bilayer structure allow for deeper penetration into the skin compared to traditional ingredients like Vitamin C and hyaluronic acid, which primarily act on the skin's surface [2] - Advantage 2: Exosomes can target multiple pathways, potentially achieving synergistic effects. Unlike traditional single-ingredient products, exosomes carry various bioactive substances, including proteins, mRNA, and miRNA, which can simultaneously regulate cellular metabolism and promote collagen synthesis, thereby improving overall skin condition [3][4] - Advantage 3: Exosomes exhibit "smart" regulatory characteristics, allowing for selective uptake by specific cells and dynamic release of their contents based on the skin's microenvironment. This responsive release mechanism may enhance cellular repair precision and reduce potential side effects [4] Group 2: Rational Methods for Selecting Exosome Skincare Products - Selection Point 1: Consumers should prioritize brands with national patent certifications, as these patents often cover critical aspects such as exosome extraction processes and active ingredient preservation technologies, ensuring the reliability of the technology [5] - Selection Point 2: Transparency regarding ingredient sources is crucial. Products that clearly indicate the source of exosomes, such as those derived from soy, grapes, or snow lotus, are preferable due to their safety and accessibility [6] - Selection Point 3: High-quality exosome products should provide reports from authoritative third-party testing organizations, including safety assessments and clinical efficacy data, which are more reliable than marketing claims [7] Conclusion - The exploration of exosome skincare represents a shift from surface-level care to cellular-level repair. The effectiveness of these products relies on scientific selection and rational evaluation, focusing on ingredient source transparency, scientific parameter validation, and clinical data support [8][9]

Core Insights - Natura Cosméticos has entered into a binding agreement to sell its Avon business in Central America and the Dominican Republic for a nominal value of $1, plus a receivable payment of $22 million from Avon Guatemala [1][2] - The transaction aims to streamline operations and simplify business focus, allowing Natura to concentrate on integrating Natura and Avon in Latin America [2] - Natura continues to explore strategic alternatives for its Avon International business, which is officially classified as an asset held for sale [3][4] Transaction Details - The sale includes Avon operations in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic [1] - Natura will continue supplying finished goods to Avon CARD and will be the licensor of the Avon brand in the region [2] - The transaction is expected to close by October 30 [2] Strategic Direction - Natura has been exploring options for its Avon International business, indicating ongoing strategic evaluations [3][4] - Avon Central America and the Dominican Republic have been reclassified as assets for sale, aligning with Natura's broader strategic review [4]

Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder's stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping 6% in the past week and continuing a downward trend due to a reported 12% year-over-year decrease in fourth-quarter net sales and a profit forecast below analyst estimates [2][3] Financial Performance - The company has lost approximately $1.9 billion in market value over the past five days, bringing its current market capitalization to around $30 billion [3] - Despite the recent losses, Estée Lauder's stock remains 13.1% higher than its level at the end of 2024, while the S&P 500 has gained 11.9% year-to-date [3] Market Sentiment - The ongoing losing streak in Estée Lauder's stock has not inspired much investor confidence, indicating potential deeper concerns or changing sentiment in the market [6][8] - The company warned of a potential $100 million impact from tariffs, contributing to investor wariness [2] Product Portfolio - Estée Lauder offers a wide range of products, including skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care items, which are sold globally [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on China Consumer Trends Industry Overview - The presentation focuses on the **China Consumer** sector, particularly the **"New Consumption"** stocks and their performance trends in the Asia Pacific region [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Capitalization Trends**: Key "New Consumption" stocks have shown significant market capitalization growth, with notable companies including Pop Mart, Bloks, Mixue, and others [6][7]. - **Consumer Industry Performance**: The overall consumer industry has experienced fluctuations, with a notable annual price movement of key indices and sectors, indicating a mixed performance across different consumer segments [10][11]. - **Price Movement Analysis**: The price movement of overall Chinese consumer stocks has been compared against major indices, revealing a decline in certain periods, particularly in 2022 and 2023 [10][11]. - **Earnings Growth Estimates**: The projected earnings growth for consumer stocks is estimated at **6%** for 2025, with a historical average of **15.1%** from 2010-2014 [75]. - **Retail Sales Trends**: Retail sales in July 2025 showed a year-over-year growth of **4.3%**, with specific categories like **Gold & Jewelry** and **Home Furnishing** performing particularly well [69][70]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators**: The presentation highlights the importance of consumer sentiment, with metrics such as household savings rates and youth unemployment rates impacting consumption trends [60][64][66]. - **Sector Valuation**: Current P/E valuations for various consumer segments are compared against their historical ranges, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued sectors [46][49]. - **Divergence in Performance**: There is a notable divergence in share price performance within consumer segments, with some categories like **IP Products** and **Gold & Jewelry** outperforming others significantly [42][44]. Conclusion - The China consumer sector is experiencing a dynamic shift, with "New Consumption" stocks leading the way in growth. However, macroeconomic factors and consumer sentiment will play crucial roles in shaping future trends and investment opportunities in this sector.

Summary of Chicmax Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Chicmax - **Industry**: Cosmetics - **Market Position**: Ranked among the top ten domestic cosmetics companies in China and top 15 in the overall beauty and personal care market in 2024 with a market share of 1.4% and retail sales of Rmb7.7 billion [12][17] Key Points and Arguments - **Long-term Vision**: Chicmax aims to be the No.1 domestic cosmetics group and one of the top 10 global cosmetics groups, supported by a clear strategic roadmap focusing on cosmetics, multi-brand operations, and globalization [1][12] - **Multi-brand Portfolio**: The company operates a multi-brand portfolio covering six categories: mass skincare, maternity & childcare, toiletries, color cosmetics, functional skincare, and high-end skincare [1][12] - **Financial Performance**: - Adjusted EPS for 2026E increased from Rmb3.56 to Rmb3.67 [5] - Revenue growth expected at a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2027E, with earnings growth at 32% CAGR [13][18] - Operating margin projected to rise from 10.9% in 2024 to 14.1% in 2027E, driven by gross margin expansion from 75.2% to 78.4% [13][18] - **Brand Performance**: - KANS brand is the number one cosmetics brand on Douyin with over Rmb6.5 billion GMV in 2024 [12][17] - Newpage brand sales increased by 147% in 1H25 to Rmb397 million, exceeding 2024 levels [7] - **Sales Target**: Chicmax targets Rmb30 billion in sales by 2030, with specific targets for its brands: KANS (Rmb20 billion), growth brands (Rmb8 billion), and seed brands (Rmb2 billion) [7] Financial Estimates - **Revenue Projections**: - FY24A: Rmb6,793 million - FY25E: Rmb8,638 million - FY26E: Rmb10,839 million - FY27E: Rmb12,673 million [11] - **Adjusted Net Income**: - FY25E: Rmb1,148 million - FY26E: Rmb1,462 million - FY27E: Rmb1,778 million [11] - **Valuation**: DCF-based price target of HK$114 implies a P/E of 30x for 2026E and 24x for 2027E [14][19] Risks and Catalysts - **Downside Risks**: Include product quality deterioration, inflation, challenges in new brand incubation, and government regulations [21] - **Upside Catalysts**: Success in new brand incubation and better-than-expected growth in core brands [21] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: Chicmax is expected to benefit from the fast growth and local pride trend in China's cosmetics industry, leveraging its multi-brand portfolio and strong R&D capabilities [13][18] - **Corporate Structure**: The Brand BU Autonomy structure allows brand GMs full autonomy on operations, enhancing responsiveness to market dynamics and operational efficiency [7] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Chicmax's strategic direction, financial performance, market positioning, and potential risks and opportunities in the cosmetics industry.

Core Viewpoint - Natura is simplifying its operations by selling Avon's businesses in several Central American countries to Grupo PDC for $1, as part of a broader organizational restructuring effort [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The deal includes Avon's operations in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic, collectively referred to as Avon CARD [1]. - An additional payment of $22 million is expected upon closing, which is a receivable from Avon Guatemala to Natura's subsidiary in Mexico [3]. - Natura will continue to supply finished goods to Avon CARD and will act as the licensor of the Avon brand in the region [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the Avon CARD deal, Natura's shares rose over 3%, outperforming the Bovespa index, which increased by 1.1% [2]. - Analysts estimate that the sale of Avon CARD could result in savings of approximately 60 million reais ($11.28 million) for the company [5]. Group 3: Strategic Alternatives - Natura is exploring strategic alternatives for the Avon International unit, which includes its Avon businesses outside Latin America, recently classified as an asset "held for sale" [4]. - The businesses in the Dominican Republic and Central America were also reclassified under this label in August [4]. - Analysts believe that the Avon CARD deal may enhance sentiment towards Natura's efforts to sell Avon International [4].

Group 1 - Global financial markets are showing a cautious tone as investors consider monetary policy shifts, economic deceleration, and geopolitical dynamics [2][9] - The Dollar Index (DXY) is steady at 97.50, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that could weaken the dollar [2][9] - China's economy experienced a greater-than-expected slowdown in August, impacting global commodity markets and leading to initial losses in iron ore prices, which later stabilized [3][9] Group 2 - Singapore's residential property market is rebounding, with new home sales reaching a nine-month high in August, driven by a strong pipeline of new projects [3][9] - European investors are increasingly favoring corporate debt from blue-chip companies like L'Oréal, Airbus, and AXA over French government bonds, as their yields have fallen below those of the state debt [4][9] - The cryptocurrency industry is opposing the UK's proposed framework for stablecoins, indicating ongoing tensions between innovative financial technologies and traditional regulatory bodies [5][9] Group 3 - Australia's Finance Union is challenging ANZ Group Holdings Limited over recent job cuts and a $240 million fine, highlighting scrutiny on labor practices in the banking sector [6] - Beijing's confirmation of joint military training exercises with Thailand may attract attention from regional and global powers, reflecting geopolitical dynamics [6]

9 September 2025 | 9:30PM HKT China Cosmetics: Monthly tracker Aug-25: Aug decelerates on tougher base; Local outperformed; Top tier KOL back for Giant in Sep We summarize Aug updates of our China Cosmetics Tracker on Tmall/Taobao and Douyin GMV, new product pipelines, cosmetics imports/exports, and Korea DFS for both local and global brands within. Key highlights: 1. GMV performance on Tmall/Taobao/Douyin: In Aug, cosmetics online GMV growth decelerated to 11% yoy, vs. 14% yoy in Jul, driven by +20% yoy gr ...

Market Overview - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China showed a growth trend from July 2024 to July 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by policies like trade-in programs and promotions on e-commerce platforms [12][13] - In the first half of 2025, significant growth was observed in various sectors, including home appliances, food, and pet products, with specific categories like ice makers growing by 168% and special medical formula foods increasing by 46% [1][12] Key Industry Trends - The personal care and household cleaning industry is expected to see stable demand and growth, with retail sales projected to increase due to supply chain optimization and market expansion [21][22] - The foundation makeup market in China is anticipated to surpass 100 billion yuan, with brands like Estée Lauder and Lancôme leading in sales on e-commerce platforms [37][38] - The small home appliance market is expanding, with significant sales growth in water purifiers and household appliances, driven by consumer demand for convenience and quality [2][21] - The outdoor and sports industry is experiencing an upward trend in sales, particularly for yoga, fitness, and outdoor travel products, with a notable increase in consumer interest in outdoor apparel and pet-related outdoor products [2][3]