Core Viewpoint - The nostalgia for 2016 among Gen Z is expected to drive a new boom cycle in the beauty industry, particularly benefiting companies like e.l.f. Beauty and Ulta Beauty [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Gen Z's current social media trend involves sharing photos from 2016, indicating a longing for that era when social media was less commercialized [1] - The year 2016 is identified as a peak time for bold makeup styles, which contrasts with the subsequent trend of "no-makeup makeup" [1] Group 2: Company Impact - Companies such as e.l.f. Beauty and Ulta Beauty are positioned to benefit from this nostalgia-driven trend, potentially leading to increased sales and market interest [1] - The anticipated "supercycle" in beauty products, especially makeup, suggests a significant opportunity for growth for these companies [1]

Core Insights - Estée Lauder Companies experienced a significant drop in share price, falling over 20% intra-day due to quarterly results and tariff concerns [1] - The company reported second-quarter earnings per share of $0.89, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.83, and a 43% increase from the previous year [1] - Revenue for the quarter rose 6% year over year to $4.23 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $4.22 billion [1] Sales Performance - Net sales in skin care and fragrance increased by 6%, while hair care returned to growth with a 5% increase [2] - Makeup sales declined by 1%, primarily due to weakness in the Estée Lauder brand, although MAC showed strength [2] - Mainland China exhibited strong performance with 13% organic sales growth, while Europe, the UK, the Middle East, and Africa posted 2% organic growth; the Americas reported flat organic sales [2] Profitability Outlook - Despite raising its full-year outlook, Estée Lauder warned that tariff-related pressures would reduce fiscal 2026 profitability by approximately $100 million, mainly in the second half of the year [3] - The company highlighted tariffs, including a 39% rate on Swiss imports and a 35% rate on Canadian imports into the U.S. [3] - Reported and adjusted gross margin expanded by 40 basis points to 76.5%, benefiting from the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, although offset by tariffs, inflation, and changes in product mix [4] Future Projections - Estée Lauder raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, now expecting organic net sales growth of 1% to 3% and adjusted earnings per share of $2.05 to $2.25 [4]

Shares of makeup giant Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL) fell 18.4% on Thursday, as of 3:56 p.m. EDT. The makeup giant reported earnings this morning, and at first glance, the results were pretty good. Still, Estée Lauder is attempting a slow turnaround, and its stock had already more than doubled off of last April's "Liberation Day" bottom. Therefore, while the December quarter's results showed some progress, it wasn't enough to satisfy investors after a strong run. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst t ...

Key Takeaways EL delivered Q2 EPS of 89 cents and sales of $4.23B, topping estimates with year-over-year growth.Estee Lauder saw Skin Care and Fragrance gains, PRGP cost efficiencies and improved operating results.EL raised fiscal 2026 outlook, forecasting 3-5% sales growth and EPS of $2.05-$2.25.The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein both top and bottom lines beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year.The company reported strong second- ...

Estee Lauder shares slide despite raised earnings outlook on tariff headwinds Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock Estee Lauder Companies Inc (NYSE:EL, XETRA:ELAA) shares tumbled nearly 22% in early trading Thursday, as investors weighed the company’s mixed signals on growth and profit pressures despite a solid quarterly performance. The luxury cosmetics maker raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast on strong second-quarter results but reiterated that tariff-related headwinds could slic ...

Core Insights - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. and e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. are key players in the cosmetics industry, competing across overlapping product categories while operating at different market segments [1][2] - The cosmetics industry is evolving due to digital engagement, changing consumer preferences, and a focus on value, innovation, and brand differentiation [1] Estee Lauder Overview - Estee Lauder has a market capitalization of approximately $41.3 billion and is recognized as a leader in the prestige beauty sector with a diverse portfolio [2] - The company has shown a return to organic sales growth, with a 3% increase in organic net sales in Q1 of fiscal 2026 and a 300 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin to 7.3% [3][9] - Adjusted gross margin improved by 60 basis points to 73.3%, driven by procurement efficiencies and reduced promotional intensity [4] - Estee Lauder is gaining market share in key regions such as Mainland China, the U.S., and parts of Western Europe, with strong performance from brands like La Mer and TOM FORD [5] - Product innovation is crucial for Estee Lauder's growth, with new launches enhancing brand relevance and consumer engagement [6] e.l.f. Beauty Overview - e.l.f. Beauty, valued at around $5.1 billion, focuses on affordable, trend-driven products and has achieved its 27th consecutive quarter of net sales growth, with a 14% increase to $343.9 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026 [7][9] - The company gained 140 basis points of market share in its core brand during Q2, reflecting its ability to attract value-conscious consumers [8] - e.l.f. Beauty's growth is supported by expanding distribution and a digitally native operating model, with management projecting a net sales increase of 18-20% for fiscal 2026 [11] Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder indicates a year-over-year sales growth of 4.6% and an EPS increase of 43.7% for the current fiscal year [12] - For e.l.f. Beauty, the current fiscal-year sales estimate suggests a 19.3% increase, while EPS is expected to decrease by 15.3% [14] - Over the past year, Estee Lauder's shares have increased by 39.3%, outperforming the industry growth of 13.2%, while e.l.f. Beauty's shares have declined by 19.8% [15] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Estee Lauder has a forward P/E ratio of 43.8, above its one-year median, while e.l.f. Beauty's forward P/E ratio is 24.71, below its median [17] - Estee Lauder presents a more compelling risk-reward profile due to its operational turnaround and strong earnings growth outlook, while e.l.f. Beauty faces rising margin pressures [19] - Estee Lauder holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), whereas e.l.f. Beauty has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [20]

Summary of China Cosmetics Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The China cosmetics sector is expected to experience a reset for higher-quality growth in 2026, moving away from reliance on high-cost Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) and focusing on popular core SKUs. This shift has led to a contraction in Net Profit Margin (NPM) due to deleveraging impacts, despite improvements in Return on Investment (ROI) [1][2]. Key Trends and Insights - **Consumer Acquisition Costs**: Monitoring new consumer acquisition costs will be critical, especially as channel migration benefits diminish and the ingredient cycle remains ambiguous. Anti-involution policies will also play a significant role [1]. - **Branding Strategy**: Branding is anticipated to be the most effective strategy for consumer engagement and new product launches in 2026. Companies with high repurchase rates and cost-efficient omni-channel strategies are better positioned for success [1][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The cosmetics market is expected to grow at a normalized rate, with growth projected at less than 1x GDP growth. The market is forecasted to see a 2.1% increase in beauty spending in 2026, with a mix of onshore and offshore market performance [17][18]. Company-Specific Insights - **Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGP)**: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy with a target price increase from HK$89 to HK$105, reflecting a 27% upside. The company is noted for strong branding and a balanced channel presence, with a forecasted sales and net income CAGR of 23% and 22% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][9]. - **Giant Biogene**: Maintained as Buy, with a target price lowered from HK$71 to HK$46, indicating a 36% upside. The company is expected to recover with new skincare products and a focus on medical aesthetics, projecting sequential growth of -8%/+12%/+17% YoY for 1H26E/2H26E/2027E [2][9]. - **Shanghai Jahwa**: Target price reduced from RMB 31 to RMB 28, with a 22% upside. The company is on a turnaround trajectory with improving margins and cash flow [2][9]. - **Proya Cosmetics**: Remains Neutral as the company is expected to moderate organic growth while awaiting more execution on white space exploration [2][9]. - **Botanee Biotech**: Neutral rating with early signs of a potential turnaround but lacking clear growth drivers [2][9]. - **Bloomage Biotech**: Maintained as Sell due to downside risks in skincare and muted growth in medical aesthetics amid a mature product cycle [2][9]. Market Performance and Projections - **E-commerce Trends**: Tmall is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by anti-involution measures. Douyin's performance has been softer than expected, with a significant decline in KOL channel performance [19][21]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: The cosmetics sector is projected to see sustained GMV growth on Tmall, while Douyin is expected to experience a narrowing gap in growth rates compared to Tmall [20][21]. Conclusion - The China cosmetics sector is poised for a shift towards higher-quality growth in 2026, with branding and strategic channel management becoming increasingly important. Companies that adapt to these changes and focus on core products are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [1][2][19].

Core Insights - e.l.f. Beauty's shares dropped 39.4% in 2025, reflecting slowing growth and high earnings multiples, leading to poor stock performance [1] - The stock is down 60% from its all-time highs, indicating significant market challenges [1] Revenue Growth - e.l.f. Beauty has historically gained market share in beauty categories, but revenue growth began to stagnate in 2025 [2] - The company expects to generate $200 million in revenue from its acquisition of Rhode in the 2026 fiscal year, projecting overall growth of 18%-20%. However, organic revenue growth is anticipated to be only 3%-4% this fiscal year, a notable slowdown [3] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for e.l.f. Beauty has decreased from 68% to 66%, suggesting the need for inventory discounts to stimulate sales, which is a negative indicator for the business [4] - Despite a 14% revenue growth last quarter, operating income fell to $7.7 million due to increased marketing expenses, highlighting declining earnings amid slowing revenue growth [6] Valuation and Debt - e.l.f. Beauty's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high at 62, even after a significant stock price drop, raising concerns about its valuation given the slowing organic revenue growth [6] - The company has incurred $600 million in debt to finance the $1 billion acquisition of Rhode, with only $100 million in free cash flow, indicating a long repayment timeline [7]

Core Insights - Dillard's reported Q3 2025 net sales of $1.47 billion, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, with comparable store sales rising by 3% [1] - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.28% in earnings over the past decade, while revenues have declined at a CAGR of 0.28% [2] - Dillard's stock has a market cap of $10.2 billion and has increased by 54% year-to-date, with a dividend yield of 4.76% [3] Financial Performance - Gross margins improved to 45.3% in Q3 2025, up from 44.5% the previous year, indicating effective cost control [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were reported at $8.31, a 7.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus estimates of $6.18 [6] - Net cash from operating activities for the nine months ended Nov. 1 was $505.8 million, up from $349.4 million in the prior year [7] Business Operations - Dillard's operates approximately 272 full-line department stores and 28 clearance centers across 30 U.S. states [4] - The company is enhancing its product offerings to attract younger shoppers, focusing on categories with higher margins such as women's clothing and accessories [11] - Dillard's is investing in its online shopping experience, with online sales projected to exceed $400 million for 2025 [12] Market Position and Strategy - Despite challenges in the retail sector, Dillard's has managed to control costs and increase margins, demonstrating commendable performance [9] - The company employs targeted promotions to attract both value-conscious and brand-focused shoppers [13] - Dillard's faces competition from larger retailers like Amazon and Walmart, which have more financial resources [14] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have rated DDS stock as a "Hold," with a mean target price that has already been surpassed, indicating limited upside potential [16] - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 20.06 and a P/B of 5.81, both above sector averages, suggesting less room for error in a cooling spending environment [15]

Core Insights - Ulta Beauty is experiencing increased consumer demand despite economic pressures, with comparable sales rising by 6.3% year over year in Q3 [1] - The launch of the UB Marketplace has expanded product offerings, introducing over 120 new brands [2] - Foot traffic in stores increased by 3.3% year over year, indicating strong customer engagement [3] Sales Performance - The average customer spending per purchase increased by nearly 4%, and the number of transactions rose by 2.4% [1] - Ulta Beauty has raised its sales expectations for fiscal year 2025, now predicting a growth of 4.4% to 4.7% compared to the previous estimate of 2.5% to 3.5% [12] Product Categories - Fragrance was the strongest growing category, followed by skincare and makeup, while hair care sales grew by mid-single digits [5] - Despite price increases due to tariffs, Ulta Beauty is working with brand partners to manage pricing changes [6][8] Consumer Behavior - The beauty industry is seeing a surge in demand as consumers prioritize self-care and wellness, with 59% of consumers feeling cautious about the economy [14][18] - A significant portion of consumers (one-third) plan to gift beauty products during the holiday season, indicating a shift in spending priorities [16] Market Trends - Prestige beauty sales reached $24.1 billion, a 4% increase year over year, while mass market beauty sales increased by 5%, totaling $54.5 billion [15] - The overall beauty industry is positioned for strong performance during the holiday season, with consumers focusing on value and strategic purchases [14][16]