投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-4 供给侧产能调整，⽣猪期货反弹 油脂：昨日震荡分化，继续关注美国生柴政策变化 蛋⽩粕：冲高回落，延续震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：盘面维持弱势，现货趋稳 ⽣猪：供给侧产能调整，生猪期货反弹 橡㬵胶价依旧跟随商品波动 合成橡㬵：原料偏弱拖拽盘面走低 纸浆：期货反弹延续，现货依旧未跟随 棉花：库存偏低，棉价存支撑 ⽩糖：外盘持续走弱，内外价差走扩 原⽊：供需两弱，震荡运行 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：供给侧产能调整，⽣猪期货反弹 信息： （1）现货价格：7月3日，河南生猪（外三元）价格15.3元/千克，环比变 化-0.26%。 （2）期货价格：7月3日，生猪期货收盘价(活跃合约)14370元/吨，环比 变化0.21%。 主要逻辑：近期受产业供给侧改革预期影响，生猪盘面反弹。（1）情绪 上，宏观氛围偏乐观。7月1日上午，据中央财经委员会第六次会议强 调，"引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。生猪产业当前 供给过剩，落后产能出清或给行业带来向好预期。（2）现货市场偏强， 基本面与宏观情绪形成共振。首先，今年年初的仔猪腹泻扰动略高于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-ethanol ratio is high, leading to strong expectations of decreased production for the new season in the overseas market [1] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - As of the end of May, Brazil's Central-South region has processed 76.71 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 20.24% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 3.989 million tons, down 22.68% year-on-year [1] - The sugar-ethanol ratio in Brazil is high, with the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% [1] - For the 2024/25 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Dynamics - The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation predicts that India's sugar ending stock for the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in October-November 2025, despite a decline in current production [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - The early arrival of monsoon rains in India is anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching around 35 million tons [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - As of the end of May, Guangxi has sold 4.6453 million tons of sugar, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The domestic market has opened a profit window for sugar imports outside of quotas, although the rebound in prices is limited [1] - In May, sugar imports totaled 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.31% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi aims to promote high-quality development in the sugar industry by focusing on good varieties, good practices, and good fields, with a total funding of over 2.6 billion RMB planned for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Funding and Investment - Guangxi's financial department has allocated approximately 2 billion RMB to support the revitalization of sugarcane seed varieties, emphasizing the integration of good varieties and good practices [1]. - Over 400 million RMB will be used to support the construction of high-standard farmland in sugarcane production protection areas, improving the production conditions for sugarcane [1]. - More than 200 million RMB is designated for subsidies to support the establishment of mechanized demonstration bases for sugarcane production, promoting full mechanization [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancement - Guangxi is promoting the integration of agricultural machinery and practices, with over 200 million RMB allocated for projects including the purchase of sugarcane harvesters and water-fertilizer integration [1]. - Nearly 80 million RMB is set aside for key areas such as the breeding system for sugarcane varieties and foundational research in sugarcane [1]. Group 3: Financial Mechanisms - Guangxi has established a dual guarantee mechanism of "insurance + guarantee" to alleviate financing difficulties for growers, with a cumulative guarantee amount exceeding 9.3 billion RMB by May 2025 [2]. - The revised management measures for special funds for sugar industry development will create a closed-loop management system for fund usage, supervision, and performance [2]. - Continuous tracking of fund usage related to sugar industry development will be maintained to ensure effective financial support and management [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangxi has achieved significant progress in high-quality sugar industry development through measures such as improving sugarcane production efficiency, technological innovation, and upgrading sugar enterprises [1] - In the 2024/25 sugar season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area is expected to reach 11.35 million acres, an increase of 110,000 acres year-on-year, with sugar production exceeding 6.4 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year-on-year [1] - The coverage rate of quality sugarcane varieties in Guangxi is close to 99%, with self-bred varieties accounting for over 92% [1] Group 2 - The sugar industry chain is extending rapidly, with the establishment of the largest bagasse-based eco-friendly tableware production and export base in Laibin City, and the development of new products such as sugarcane vinegar and sugarcane beer in Chongzuo City [2] - Guangxi is exploring international cooperation in the sugar industry, signing framework agreements for sugarcane planting with regions in Vietnam, and developing raw material bases of approximately 36,000 acres in Vietnam [2] - The utilization rates of bagasse, molasses, and filter mud have reached 100%, while the comprehensive utilization rate of sugarcane leaves has exceeded 40% [2]

白糖产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5766 | -9 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 302138 | -7673 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 23575 | -174 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -21701 | 9455 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 4342 | 46 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4392 | 46 60 | | | | 5511 | 60 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5576 | | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5895 | /吨) 0 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) | 6070 | -2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangxi is actively exploring a new model of sugar industry cooperation with Vietnam, focusing on sugarcane cultivation and processing, with significant increases in sugarcane imports expected for the 2024/2025 season [1] - Guangxi has implemented measures to enhance sugarcane production quality and efficiency, including a three-year action plan for the transformation and upgrading of sugar enterprises, leading to notable achievements in high-quality sugar industry development [1][2] - Guangxi is a major player in China's sugar industry, accounting for approximately 60% of the country's sugarcane planting area and sugar production, with ongoing efforts to restore sugarcane cultivation areas and increase planting [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi government has allocated nearly 2 billion yuan to support the revitalization of sugarcane seed industry and promote the adoption of advanced cultivation techniques [2] - A new mechanized harvesting model for sugarcane has been introduced, along with the establishment of 235 mechanized harvesting service points, aimed at modernizing sugarcane production [2] - Guangxi is extending its sugar industry value chain by developing new products such as sugarcane vinegar and sugarcane beer, and has established the largest environmentally friendly sugarcane residue production base in the country [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Guangxi's sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to exceed 6.465 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 283,600 tons [1] - The area planted with sugarcane in Guangxi is projected to be 11.35 million acres, which represents an increase of 110,000 acres compared to the previous year [1]

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 二、行业要闻 三、数据概览 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 国内方面，产销速度偏快，预计对糖价有所支撑。不过考虑到进口糖即将大量进入国内 市场，或拖累糖价下行。叠加原糖近期走势偏弱，短期糖价维持偏弱运行。 【逻辑分析】 白糖日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,775 -32 -0.56% 190,361 0.80% 309,811 -0.82% 5,790 -20 -0.34% 218 -80.64% 10,034 -1.11% 5,653 -35 -0.62% 17,336 -5.00% 53,130 1.89% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6150 5895 - 6090 6175 6160 6420 0 0 - 1 0 0 0 0 497 242 - 437 522 507 767 SR07-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 137 1 5 122 241 1 5 1 2 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 16 ...

Core Insights - T Company engages in sugar trading with a monthly trading volume of approximately 5,000 tons and employs a rigorous strategy for options hedging [1] - The company utilizes a dual selling strategy for sugar options, capitalizing on low volatility in the VIX index, which ranges from a high of 25.11 to a low of 7.98, with an average volatility of 17.13 [2][3] - The implementation of the dual selling strategy has increased trading opportunities from 6 to 12 times a year due to the introduction of series options [4][13] Trading Strategy - The dual selling strategy aims to profit from declining volatility and time decay, requiring the selling of a sufficiently large range to mitigate directional risk [4] - T Company has set a price fluctuation range of 1,000 CNY/ton to manage extreme market conditions [5] - The company selected strike prices of 5,500 CNY and 6,500 CNY based on a neutral Delta value to balance the options portfolio [8] Market Analysis - The VIX index indicates a stable market environment for sugar futures, which is characterized by narrow price fluctuations, making it an ideal target for options sellers [13] - The company anticipates that the sugar price will remain within the range of 5,500 to 6,500 CNY/ton over the next 14 trading days, allowing for strategic positioning [10] Financial Performance - By executing the dual selling strategy, T Company expects to achieve an annualized return of 14.88%, significantly exceeding its funding cost of 2.5% [11] - The strategy's effectiveness is enhanced by the faster time decay of series options compared to conventional options, allowing for quicker realization of profits [14]