Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an EBITDA of $211 million and a net income of $99 million, or $9.33 per common unit [8] - The fourth quarter EBITDA decreased compared to Q4 2024 primarily due to lower production and sales volumes and higher direct operating costs [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices for UAN increased by approximately 55% and ammonia prices by approximately 32% compared to the prior year [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout the quarter, with expectations for continued strong demand due to a projected record crop year [6][13] - The USDA estimates corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on 99 million acres planted, with soybean yields estimated at 53 bushels per acre on over 81 million acres [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects and plans to expand DEF production and load-out capacity [17] - A feedstock diversification and ammonia expansion project at the Coffeyville facility is underway, allowing for optimal use of natural gas and third-party petcoke [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, citing strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers despite potential acreage reductions for corn [13][32] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [15][16] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including turnaround expenses of approximately $14 million [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [24] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [26] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed that prices are expected to increase slightly from Q4 to Q1 [27] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [28][29] Question: How does the acreage reduction for corn affect demand? - Management indicated that despite acreage reductions, strong demand is expected due to nitrogen depletion in the soil from previous planting seasons [31][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an operating income of $129 million and net income of $99 million, translating to $9.33 per common unit [8] - EBITDA for the full year was $211 million, with a distribution of $10.54 per common unit [5][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices increased by approximately 55% compared to Q4 2024, while ammonia prices rose by approximately 32% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout Q4, despite lower production and sales volumes [5][9] - The USDA estimates a record crop year for 2025, with corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on approximately 99 million acres planted [13] - U.S. inventory carryout levels for corn are expected to be above the 10-year average, while soybean levels are below [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects at both plants, aiming for utilization rates above 95% [16][17] - Plans include expanding DEF production and load-out capacity, and a feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility [17] - The board has reserved capital for future projects, expecting to spend over the next two years [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, anticipating strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers due to depleted soil nitrogen levels [13][30] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [14][15] - The company expects ammonia utilization rates to be between 95% and 100% in Q1 2026, with direct operating expenses projected at $57 million to $62 million [11][12] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including $14 million in turnaround expenses [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [22] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [25] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed an uptick in prices based on the current book of business [26] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [27][28] Question: How does acreage down for corn affect demand? - Management remains optimistic about demand due to nitrogen depletion in soil and supply constraints [29][30]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion, net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share [4][12] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $404 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $821 million [12][14] - The company generated net cash from operations of $2.75 billion and free cash flow of approximately $1.8 billion in 2025, returning $1.7 billion to shareholders [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025, achieving a 97% utilization rate, although production is expected to decrease to approximately 9.5 million tons in 2026 due to the Yazoo City incident [4][5] - The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui is progressing well, with plans to begin civil work at the site in the second quarter of 2026 [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen market remains tighter than expected, with strong demand from India, Brazil, and North America, while supply is constrained by natural gas availability and geopolitical concerns [8][10] - Urea prices are currently trading well above historical levels, with North American ammonia pricing at $450 per short ton, which is $100 higher than in December 2025 [9][43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to its capital allocation framework, focusing on growth investments and returning capital to long-term shareholders [6][7] - There is a strong emphasis on low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen products, with increasing demand from customers seeking to meet sustainability goals [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate substantial free cash flow, supported by high-margin business and strategic initiatives [6][18] - The outlook for the nitrogen market remains positive, with expectations of continued high demand and limited new supply [10][44] Other Important Information - The company recorded two impairment charges totaling $76 million in the fourth quarter, related to the electrolyzer pilot project and the Yazoo City incident [12][13] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to total approximately $1.3 billion, with $950 million allocated for sustaining CapEx and the Blue Point joint venture [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the pace of spending at the Blue Point project - The overall expenditure for Blue Point remains forecasted at $3.7 billion, with no changes in costs but updated timing for cash flow outflows [20][22] Question: On CBAM and its impact on the business - CBAM is seen as an opportunity, with European customers showing interest in low-carbon products, and any changes to CBAM could still benefit the company due to its low-carbon offerings [29][31] Question: Regarding the Yazoo City plant restart - The ammonium nitrate plant is the only one affected, and the company aims to restart it as soon as possible, with an estimated EBITDA impact of $200 million for 2026 [33][35] Question: Current market tightness and pricing outlook - The market is expected to remain tight due to high demand and limited supply, with pricing likely to stay elevated in the near term [38][42] Question: On the Blue Point project and its future expansion - The focus remains on the first site, but there is potential for future expansion given the infrastructure being built [24][25] Question: Affordability issues in nitrogen pricing - The company is aware of affordability issues and is studying the economics to ensure they remain part of the solution for farmers [90][92]

Core Insights - U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on February 18, 2026, invoking the Defense Production Act to secure domestic supplies of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides, citing their importance for national security and military readiness [1][3] Domestic Players and Market Impact - The executive order highlights domestic companies capable of scaling production, particularly Bayer AG, which operates the only elemental phosphorus mine in the U.S., along with Corteva Agriscience and The Mosaic Company [2] - ETFs with significant holdings in these companies are expected to experience increased interest and potential surges in value [2] Strategic Reshoring and Economic Protectionism - The order aims to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign imports, especially from China, for critical materials, as elemental phosphorus is essential for various military and technological applications [3] - By invoking the DPA, the U.S. government can provide loans and purchase guarantees to support domestic producers, benefiting companies like Bayer and Corteva [4] ETF Highlights - **iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI)**: Net assets of $108.7 million, exposure to 128 companies, with CTVA at 9.33% and NTR at 6.14% weightage; surged 19.5% over the past year [6][7] - **VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO)**: Net assets of $954.1 million, exposure to 57 companies, with BAYRY at 7.45%, CTVA at 6.43%, and NTR at 4.79% weightage; increased by 24% over the past year [8][9] - **First Trust Materials AlphaDEX ETF (FXZ)**: Net assets of $332.7 million, exposure to 37 stocks, with MOS at 4.79% weightage; soared 30% over the past year [11] - **Global X AgTech & Food Innovation ETF (KROP)**: Net assets of $6.50 million, exposure to 30 companies, with FMC at 4.16% weightage; gained 13.9% over the past year [12][13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nutrien generated Adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion in 2025, reflecting a 13% increase from the previous year [4] - The company achieved a record fertilizer sales volume of 27.5 million tons in 2025 [4] - Controllable cash cost for potash averaged $58 per ton, below the target of $60 per ton [5][6] - Downstream retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.74 billion, driven by cost reductions and strong proprietary margins [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Potash sales volumes were raised twice during the year, achieving 49% mine automation [5] - Nitrogen sales volumes increased to 10.9 million tons, with a four percentage point improvement in ammonia operating rates [6] - Phosphate operating rate averaged 87% in the second half of 2025 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Potash demand is projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with benchmark prices approximately 20% higher compared to the previous year [12] - North American demand for fertilizers was lower in Q4, but overall demand remains strong [7][12] - Global nitrogen markets are influenced by supply issues, while demand is expected to grow in line with historical rates [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nutrien aims to simplify its portfolio by concentrating capital on high-quality earnings and cash flow streams [8] - The company is reviewing strategic alternatives for its phosphate business and assessing options for its Trinidad nitrogen operations [10][11] - A focus on capital allocation discipline and growth from core businesses is emphasized for 2026 [10][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate weaker agricultural commodity markets and geopolitical volatility [7] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for continued growth in core businesses and improved cash conversion [16] - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges in the Brazilian market but anticipates modest improvements in 2026 [37] Other Important Information - Nutrien generated approximately $900 million in gross proceeds from divestitures in 2025 [8] - The company reduced short-term debt by over $600 million compared to the prior year [9] - A 30% increase in cash return to shareholders was achieved in 2025 through share repurchases [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retail guidance and performance - Management explained that the retail target for 2026 is $150 million above the previous year's midpoint, attributing this to modestly better macro fundamentals and cost reduction actions taken [21][22] Question: Potash market demand dynamics - Management projected potash demand at 74-77 million tons for the year, indicating that consumption is meeting shipments and there is no significant inventory build [25][26] Question: Trinidad asset and gas supply - Management expressed uncertainty regarding gas availability for the Trinidad plant, which has been throttled due to lack of gas supply and increased costs [59][61] Question: Retail seed sales decline - Management noted that the decline in seed sales was due to strategic decisions to move away from lower-margin products and adverse weather conditions impacting sales [64][66] Question: Phosphate strategic review - Management confirmed that the phosphate business is under strategic review, with no conclusions yet on the optimal path forward [50][52] Question: Capital allocation and share buyback - Management reiterated that the capital allocation strategy for 2026 will remain consistent, with a focus on share repurchases and maintaining stable dividends [81][84]

2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results February 18, 2026 NYSE: CF Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the "Company"), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "will" or "would" and simil ...

Core Insights - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.59 per share, an increase from $1.89 in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings at $2.99 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.50 [1][8] - Net sales rose approximately 22.8% year over year to $1,872 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,788.1 million [1][8] Sales Performance - Average selling prices increased due to strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions from geopolitical issues, although sales volumes were lower year over year due to decreased granular urea and ammonium nitrate sales [2] - Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 23.8% to $708 million, surpassing the estimate of $524.2 million, with adjusted gross margin per ton rising due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs [3] - Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 6.9% year over year to $372 million, missing the estimate of $402.8 million, with adjusted gross margin per ton increasing due to higher average selling prices [4] - Sales in the UAN segment increased around 51.6% year over year to $564 million, beating the estimate of $531.7 million, with adjusted gross margin per ton rising due to higher average selling prices [5] - Sales in the AN segment declined around 19.8% year over year to $81 million, missing the estimate of $100.9 million, although adjusted gross margin per ton increased due to higher average selling prices [6] Financial Overview - As of December 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $1.98 billion, up 22.8% year over year, while long-term debt increased to $3,215 million, up 8.2% year over year [7] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the reported quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year [7] - The company repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in the fourth quarter and 16.6 million shares for $1.34 billion during 2025 [7] Market Outlook - The global nitrogen outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply, with India and Brazil being the largest importers of urea [8] - Supply constraints from disrupted Russian exports and gas shortages in Trinidad and Iran are affecting production, while North American ammonia supply is expected to be healthy [9] Stock Performance - Shares of CF Industries have gained 19.4% in the past year, compared to the 16.7% growth of the industry [10]

Q4 2025 Results Presentation February 18, 2026 Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", "forecast", "expect", "believe", "may", "will" ...

Performance in the fourth quarter was significantly impacted by a 64% ammonia utilization rate, driven by a planned turnaround and subsequent three-week startup delay at the Coffeyville facility. The operational delay was attributed to issues at a third-party air separation plant; management is currently renegotiating the service provider's business plan to increase CVR's oversight and prevent future recurrence. Despite lower production volumes, the company benefited from strong market pricing, with U ...

Core Insights - Nutrien Ltd. reported a significant profit increase to $580 million or $1.18 per share for Q4 2025, up from $118 million or 23 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share, excluding one-time items, were 83 cents, an increase from 31 cents year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87 cents [1] - Sales rose approximately 5% year-over-year to $5,340 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,207.3 million [1] Segment Performance - The Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment experienced a 1% decline in sales year-over-year, totaling $3,144 million, attributed to lower sales volumes and reduced demand for phosphate, yet it exceeded the estimate of $2,883.3 million [2] - The Potash division saw a 37% year-over-year increase in sales, reaching $736 million, although it missed the estimate of $857.9 million due to lower sales volumes [3] - The Nitrogen segment reported sales of $1,093 million, an 11% increase year-over-year, beating the estimate of $657.6 million, despite a decline in sales volumes due to facility shutdowns [4] - The Phosphate segment generated sales of $483 million, up around 17% year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $288.1 million [4] Financial Overview - At the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $701 million, down approximately 18% year-over-year, while long-term debt increased by 5.3% to $9,350 million [5] - Cash provided from operating activities was reported at $2,977 million for the quarter [5] Future Outlook - The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion, indicating high-single digit growth in proprietary products gross margins and mid-single digit increases in North American crop nutrient sales volumes [6] - Expected potash sales volumes are projected to be between 14.1 million and 14.8 million tons, while nitrogen sales volumes are forecasted at 9.2 million to 9.7 million tons [7] - Capital expenditures are anticipated to be between $2 billion and $2.1 billion, including $400 million for growth investments [8]