Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is facing challenges due to high home prices, declining supply, and weakened consumer confidence [1] Sales Performance - Sales of previously owned homes in January fell by 8.4% from December to an annualized rate of 3.91 million, marking a 4.4% decrease compared to January 2025, the slowest pace since December 2023 [2] - The decline in sales was most pronounced in the South and West regions of the U.S. [3] Affordability and Supply - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that affordability conditions are improving, with the Housing Affordability Index indicating the most affordable housing since March 2022, driven by wage gains outpacing home price growth and lower mortgage rates [4] - Despite improvements in affordability, housing supply remains low, with 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of January, representing a 3.7-month supply, below the balanced market threshold of six months [4] Home Prices and Market Dynamics - Tighter supply has kept home prices positive, with the median home price in January at $396,800, a 0.9% increase year-over-year and the highest January price on record [5] - Homes are taking longer to sell, averaging 46 days in January compared to 41 days in January of the previous year [5] - The market is seeing stronger sales in the higher-end segment, particularly for homes priced over $1 million, while sales for homes priced below $250,000 have dropped significantly [6]

Core Insights - U.S. home prices have decreased by 1.4% over the past three months, providing relief to potential buyers [1] - Mortgage rates have fallen below 6%, marking the lowest level since early 2023 [2] Market Trends - Small to mid-sized markets are becoming more attractive for buyers, with home prices below the national average [3] - Sun Belt cities, such as Phoenix, are experiencing stagnant inventory and low demand, which may limit the buyer pool due to potential restrictions on institutional investors [4] - In the western U.S., including states like Arizona, Utah, and Colorado, supply is beginning to exceed demand, leading to a reset in the market [5] - Florida's market is cooling after significant price increases, with predictions of the largest declines in Cape Coral and North Port [5] - Smaller markets in the Midwest and Southeast, such as St. Louis, are offering more inventory and less competition, presenting "incredible" deals for buyers [6] - Price increases driven by migration in cities like Nashville, Raleigh, Columbus, and Indianapolis are now slowing down [6]

Core Insights - The meeting on February 10, 2026, in Nanning, Guangxi, focused on promoting housing consumption through various activities and collaborations to boost market confidence and consumer willingness [1][2] Group 1: Housing Consumption Initiatives - Guangxi will continue to conduct diverse housing consumption activities, integrating housing with cultural tourism, sports events, and performing arts to stimulate consumer interest [1] - In 2025, Guangxi organized 453 "Good House, Joyful Life" housing consumption events, significantly contributing to the development of the real estate sector [1] Group 2: Collaborative Efforts - The Guangxi Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department signed cooperation agreements with multiple entities to create a framework for information sharing and collaborative promotion of housing consumption [2] - The launch of the "Good House, Joyful Life" online housing supermarket app and the "One-Click Tour Guangxi" travel page aims to enhance the linkage between online and offline housing services [2] Group 3: Expert Insights - Wu Jing, Dean of the School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering at Tsinghua University, provided professional guidance for the high-quality development of Guangxi's real estate market during the meeting [1] - Wu emphasized Guangxi's ecological advantages, which are conducive to the development of health and tourism industries, and expressed hope for discovering new consumption scenarios in the housing sector [2]

The housing market has cooled off this winter with the annual pace of home price growth easing to levels unseen since the nation was recovering from the Great Recession. And while some areas continue to see strong price growth, others have seen notable declines. New data from Cotality, a data analytics and tech company in the real estate, mortgage and insurance industries, showed that annual housing price growth slowed to just 0.9% in December, which was one of the softest rates since the post-Great Recessi ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently facing significant competitive risks from other asset classes, which could impact its position as a leading digital asset [2][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Competition - Bitcoin's market cap stands at $1.4 trillion, attracting interest from individuals, governments, banks, and large capital pools globally [3]. - The competition for Bitcoin includes various asset classes that hold substantial capital, particularly in the current interest rate environment [4]. Group 2: Competitive Risks - The artificial intelligence sector, represented by the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, has a combined market cap of $21 trillion, drawing significant investment and attention [5]. - The U.S. housing market, valued at approximately $55 trillion as of June 2025, remains a key asset for many Americans, emphasizing the preference for physical wealth storage [6]. - The U.S. Treasury market, worth $29 trillion, is highly liquid and considered a leading reserve asset, which may divert institutional capital away from Bitcoin [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Market participants have varying risk tolerances and objectives, which means not all investors will gravitate towards Bitcoin despite its potential upside over the next decade [8].

Core Viewpoint - The housing market is expected to see home prices remain flat in 2026, with a 0% growth forecast, as efforts to improve affordability have minimal impact [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A slight improvement in demand is anticipated to offset an increase in supply, leading to stable home prices [2] - The Federal Reserve's expected reduction in adjustable-rate mortgages may help buyers, despite the 30-year fixed rate remaining above 6% [2] - Homebuilders are likely to continue offering rate buydowns to reduce mortgage costs and clear unsold inventory [2] Price Trends - Home prices showed a 1.9% increase in November year-over-year, a decline from 4.8% growth in October [3] - Regions with significant supply growth during the pandemic, particularly the West Coast and Sun Belt, are experiencing price declines [4] - Texas home prices have decreased by 2.4% and Florida home prices by 5.1% year-over-year, reflecting market weaknesses [5] Market Supply Analysis - JPMorgan estimates a shortfall of approximately 1.2 million homes in the U.S., although this is lower than the consensus view due to recent supply growth [6] - Historical data indicates that housing completions have generally matched household formation over the past 30 years [6] Policy Impact - President Trump's proposed ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes is unlikely to significantly affect the market, as they represent only 1%-3% of transactions [8] - The ban could potentially tighten overall supply by limiting the entry of rental homes into the market [9] - Trump's directive for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities may only reduce rates by 10-15 basis points, which is minimal compared to the overall $14.5 trillion mortgage market [10] Builder Strategies - Many homebuilders are already offering mortgage rate buydowns of 100 to 200 basis points below prevailing rates, suggesting that further reductions in market rates may not significantly boost demand [11] - Trump's preference for rising home prices indicates a reluctance to implement measures that would lower them, as he believes that increased home values contribute to wealth [12][13]

Core Insights - Some housing markets remain unaffordable even if mortgage rates drop significantly, while others could see improved affordability with minor rate declines [2][4] - A Zillow report indicates that mortgage rates would need to decrease by over 4% for typical homes to be affordable for median-income families, with current rates at 6.11% [3] Housing Market Analysis - Major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami have average home values exceeding $800,000 and $1 million, making them unaffordable even at a 0% mortgage rate [4] - In cities such as Boston and Seattle, mortgage rates would need to fall below 1% for homes to be affordable, while Dallas, New Orleans, and Nashville require a drop of over two percentage points [4][6] Regional Affordability - In contrast, areas with lower home prices, like Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, have an average home value of $231,518, allowing affordability even if mortgage rates rise to 9% [5] - Birmingham, Alabama, with an average home value of $132,725, could remain affordable at rates up to 7.62%, and Detroit's average of $76,340 allows for affordability at 7.02% [6]

Though 2026 has economists predicting more of a reset than a rebound for the housing market, real estate mogul, money expert and “Shark Tank” star Barbara Corcoran doesn’t think that should be a deterrent for those looking to buy a home. If you’re thinking about purchasing property right now, the current interest rates may have given you pause, but they are expected to take a modest dip in the new year. ​​The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is about 6.11% as of Feb. 5. That’s down more than a per ...

Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation February 5, 2026 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by words such as "estimates," "guidance," "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "plans," "believes," "seeks" and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements include information with respect to financial condition, results of operat ...

Core Insights - California is experiencing a chronic housing shortage, making it one of the least affordable housing markets in the U.S. for middle-income workers [1][8] - The structural mismatch between housing demand and supply is a significant factor driving prices beyond the reach of many workers [2][3] - High construction costs, lengthy permitting processes, and regulatory hurdles are contributing to the limited supply of new housing, particularly affordable units [3][8] Housing Inventory Trends - Active listings in California fell sharply from 2020 to 2022, reaching historically low levels, although there has been a slow recovery in the following two years [5] - By December 2025, California had approximately 56,000 active listings, an 11% increase year-over-year, but still below the pre-pandemic range of 70,000 to 90,000 listings [6][8] - Inventory peaked at nearly 78,000 listings in July 2025, indicating some normalization in the market, yet it has not returned to a balanced state [8] Affordability Challenges - The median-earning household in California spends a significantly larger share of their income on housing compared to most other states, highlighting the affordability crisis [8] - In cities like Los Angeles and San Jose, typical buyers face the challenge of dedicating a higher percentage of their income to mortgage payments, making homeownership unattainable for many middle-income workers [10] - As of December 2025, there were about 17,000 active million-dollar listings statewide, reflecting a shift in price distribution and indicating that higher-priced homes are becoming more common [11]