Core Insights - The average time for Americans to save for a median home down payment in 2025 is seven years, a decrease from 12 years in 2022 but still nearly double the pre-pandemic timeline [1] - Rising home prices and a lower savings rate are contributing to the challenges in accumulating down payments, with home prices increasing by 55% from September 2019 to September 2025 [1] - The typical down payment has more than doubled from $13,900 in 2019 to $30,400 in 2025, while the average down payment as a percentage of home prices is 14.4% [1] Group 1: Time to Save for Down Payments - In 2025, it took the typical American seven years to save for a median down payment, down from a peak of 12 years in 2022 [1] - This timeline is still significantly longer than pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing challenges in homeownership accessibility [1] Group 2: Down Payment Trends - The average down payment in the third quarter of 2025 was 14.4% of the home price, which has remained consistent since 2022 despite rising home prices [1] - The typical down payment amount has increased significantly, reflecting the impact of higher home prices and reduced savings rates [1] Group 3: Economic Implications - Delayed homeownership due to longer saving times can lead to increased vulnerability to rising rents and reduced access to home equity, which is crucial for long-term wealth building [1] - The U.S. personal savings rate was 5.1% in 2025, lower than the pre-pandemic rate of around 6.5%, indicating a broader economic concern [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of improvement for buyers as it enters 2026, although high down payments continue to pose challenges for many first-time buyers [1][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - The housing market is experiencing three major tailwinds: cooling interest rates, stabilizing home prices, and an increase in inventory [2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently just above 6%, a significant decrease from the peaks of 7% and higher seen in 2025 [3] - Pending home sales have increased by 3.3%, reaching their highest level in nearly three years, largely due to lower interest rates [4] Group 2: Buyer Challenges - Despite the reduction in monthly mortgage costs, the typical homebuyer now requires seven years to save for a standard down payment, an improvement from the 12-year timeline in 2022 but still double the prepandemic average [4] - The homeownership rate has recently fallen to 65%, the lowest level since 2019, indicating that buyers are struggling with the initial cash outlay despite being able to afford monthly payments [5] - Improving housing affordability, driven by lower mortgage rates and faster wage growth compared to home prices, is encouraging buyers to explore the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement extends the personal income tax refund policy for residents who sell their homes and purchase new ones within one year, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, to support housing demand and improve market conditions [2][6]. Group 1: Tax Refund Policy Details - Taxpayers selling their homes and purchasing new ones will receive a full refund of the personal income tax paid if the new home's price is equal to or greater than the selling price of the old home [3][7]. - If the new home's price is less than the selling price of the old home, the refund will be proportional to the new home's price relative to the old home's selling price [7][8]. - The selling price of the old home is defined as the market transaction price, while the new home's price is based on the contract price registered with the housing authority for new homes or the transaction price for second-hand homes [7][8]. Group 2: Eligibility and Conditions - To qualify for the tax refund, the sale and purchase of homes must occur within the same city, defined as the administrative regions of the same municipality or provincial capital [8]. - The seller of the old home must be directly related to the buyer of the new home, meaning they must be the owner or one of the owners of the new property [8]. - This policy is a continuation of previous measures that began on September 30, 2022, and was previously extended to December 31, 2025, now further extended to December 31, 2027, indicating a commitment to support housing demand [3][8]. Group 3: Additional Tax Policy Changes - In addition to the tax refund policy, the tax rate for value-added tax on homes sold within two years of purchase has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective by the end of 2025 [8]. - These combined policies aim to lower the tax burden on homebuyers and facilitate faster transactions in the housing market, thereby promoting the release of demand for improved housing [8].

Core Insights - The number of homeowners with mortgages above 6% has surpassed those with rates under 3% for the first time, indicating a significant shift in the housing market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Mortgage Rate Trends - The last period when mortgage rates were below 3% was from July 2020 to September 2021, and rates have not fallen below this threshold since 1971 [2]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, 20% of outstanding mortgages had an interest rate below 3%, while 21.2% had rates above 6% [3][4]. - Approximately 31.5% of outstanding mortgages carry interest rates between 3% and 4%, 17.1% fall in the 4% to 5% range, and 10.2% are between 5% and 6% [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Home Prices - The prolonged lock-in effect is diminishing as fewer homeowners retain low borrowing rates, which is expected to gradually change market dynamics [6][8]. - Despite some improvements in housing supply, about 80% of outstanding loans still carry below-market rates, making homeowners reluctant to sell and buy again due to significantly higher potential monthly payments [8]. - The market is moving towards a more balanced state, with additional supply easing affordability challenges and some local markets classified as a "buyer's market" [10][11].

Home sales touched a fresh low in 2025 as economic uncertainty hammered the housing market. Americans sold 4.06 million previously-owned homes in the year, the National Association of Realtors said Jan. 14. That number contains an initial estimate for December sales, which may be revised. For now, however, the unrounded data show 2025’s total a few thousand lower than 2024, which marked the lowest level of sales since 1995. "There was a bit of hope at the beginning of the year and then it really just tap ...

Core Insights - The US housing market continues to experience a slump, with sales remaining at a 30-year low, totaling 4.06 million homes sold in 2025, unchanged from 2024, marking a decline every year since 2022 [1][4][5] - The median national home price increased by 1.7% to $414,400 in 2025, indicating persistent high prices despite low sales [2] - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was around 7% a year ago but fell to close to 6% by the end of 2025, contributing to a slight increase in sales in December [6][8] Sales Performance - Sales of previously occupied homes have been stagnant at around a 4-million annual pace since 2023, significantly below the historical norm of 5.2 million [4] - December 2025 saw existing home sales rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, marking the fastest sales pace in nearly three years [6][8] - Despite the increase in sales in December, the overall trend remains negative, with sales having declined annually since 2022 [1][5] Price Trends - The median sales price in December 2025 reached $405,400, a 0.4% increase from December 2024, continuing a streak of 30 consecutive months of annual price increases [8][9] - The rise in home prices, coupled with elevated mortgage rates, continues to challenge affordability for many potential buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers [9] Economic Conditions - The housing market slump is attributed to rising mortgage rates that began in 2022, which have kept many prospective buyers out of the market [5] - Uncertainty regarding the economy and job market is also contributing to the hesitance of potential buyers to enter the housing market [9]

Subscribe to Barron's This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. Home Sales Hovered at Three-Decade Low in 2025. What's Coming This Year. By Shaina Mishkin (Joe Raedle/Getty Images) The housing market kept sputtering in 2025, with sales tying the year prior at a rou ...

Core Insights - The housing market experienced its third consecutive year of stagnation, with 4.06 million homes sold in 2025, unchanged from the previous year, marking the lowest sales level since 1995 [1] - High mortgage rates and prices have deterred buyers and discouraged sellers from listing their homes, creating a challenging environment for first-time buyers [1] - The average existing home sales historically hover around 5 million annually, but the market has been disrupted since mid-2022 due to rapidly rising mortgage rates [1] Market Trends - Toward the end of 2025, mortgage rates around 6.2% helped to attract some buyers back into the market [2] - Home sales showed a positive trend, rising 5.1% in December from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million, the best performance since February 2023 [3] - Sales increased across all regions, with the South leading with a 6.9% increase and the West following with a 6.6% rise [4] Future Outlook - There are indications that the recent increase in sales may persist, particularly if mortgage rates remain near 6% [5] - Home contract signings rose by 3.3% in November, suggesting potential future sales growth [5] - Mortgage applications for home purchases surged by 16% compared to the previous week, following a brief drop in average 30-year mortgage rates below 6% [6] - Experts predict that lower mortgage rates will lead to increased home sales in 2026 [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market continues to experience a slump, with sales remaining at a 30-year low as of 2025, primarily due to rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates [1][3] - Home sales of previously occupied homes totaled 4.06 million in 2025, unchanged from 2024, marking a decline every year since 2022 [1][2] - The median national home price increased by 1.7% to $414,400 in 2025, with sales stuck around a 4-million annual pace, significantly below the historical norm of 5.2 million [2] Sales Performance - December 2025 saw existing U.S. home sales rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million units, a 5.1% increase from November, marking the fastest sales pace in nearly three years [4] - This December also recorded a median sales price of $405,400, a 0.4% increase from December 2024, representing an all-time high for any previous December [5] Market Conditions - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was around 7% a year ago but eased to close to 6% by the end of 2025, contributing to improved sales conditions in the fourth quarter [3] - Despite lower mortgage rates, affordability remains a significant challenge for many potential homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, due to economic uncertainty and job market concerns [6]

For years, home buyers have been told the housing market would eventually "normalize" — meaning if mortgage rates came down or inventory improved, affordability would return to something resembling pre-pandemic levels such as 2019. But new data from Realtor.com suggests that version of the market may never come back, and returning to pre-pandemic affordability would require outcomes economists say are extremely unlikely.The numbers underscore a tougher reality for buyers, one expert points out: America’s ho ...