Group 1 - The presentation is led by Angel Castillo Malpica, who is the U.S. machinery and construction analyst at Morgan Stanley [1] - Gabe Bruno, the EVP, CFO, and Treasurer of Lincoln Electric, is present for the discussion [2]

PresentationAngel Castillo MalpicaVice President All right. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining me. For those who don't know me, name is Angel Castillo. I'm the U.S. machinery and construction analyst here at Morgan Stanley. And before we get started, I just want to read a quick disclaimer. So for important disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley represe ...

Company Overview - Donaldson recently reported record results and record sales despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [3] Leadership - The company has recently appointed Rich Lewis as COO, alongside Brad Pogalz as CFO and Sarika Dhadwal as Senior Director of IR and ESG [2]

Market Overview - The technology sector is currently leading the market, with Oracle's stock up 32% [1] - Overall, the technology sector is up over 1% in today's session, contributing to market strength [1][2] Technical Analysis - The market opened strong at 6550, approaching a major resistance level of 6555, but has seen some pullback [3] - Key support levels are identified at 6500 and 6485, with a previous resistance level at 6530 potentially acting as support [4] - The market is in a bullish trend, continuing to make new highs and higher lows, supported by positive PPI data [5][7] - The S&P 500 shows a decent technical setup, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages being held [7][8] Industrial Sector Insights - The industrial sector is under observation due to a bearish cross on the MACD for the weekly chart, indicating potential testing of the 20-week moving average [11] - A significant portion (75%) of the decline in services is attributed to margin compression in machinery and transportation services, affecting major companies like Caterpillar and Boeing [12] Homebuilders and Mortgage Demand - Mortgage demand has spiked significantly, driven by decreasing rates, which could benefit homebuilders [13][14] - Anticipation of rate cuts may stimulate demand for new and existing homes, as well as renovations, positively impacting companies like Home Depot and Lowe's [15] - Despite a recent aggressive move to the downside, strong fundamental data could act as a catalyst for the homebuilding sector in the coming weeks [17]

Company Overview - Oshkosh is a global industrial technology company with approximately $11 billion in revenue and around 18,000 employees worldwide [2] - The company specializes in providing custom-built machinery for demanding jobs [2] Strategic Focus - Oshkosh's strategy, outlined during the Investor Day in June, emphasizes three key areas: innovate, serve, and advance [2] - The focus on innovation aims to support customers in performing tough jobs, while serving them throughout the product life cycle with parts and accessories [2] - The company is also looking to expand into new adjacent categories and increase its capacity [2] Future Outlook - Oshkosh is committed to not only addressing current needs but also shaping the future of the industries it serves [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department expressed concern over the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund's decision to divest from Caterpillar and Israeli banks, citing illegitimate claims related to the Gaza conflict [2][3][6] - The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, valued at approximately $1.98 trillion, has reduced its investments in Israeli equities from 61 to just 6 stocks [10] - Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) stated that the decision to exit Caterpillar was based on ethical guidelines, as the company’s products were allegedly used in the destruction of Palestinian property [5][6][10] Group 2 - Norwegian Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg clarified that the government does not influence the fund's investment decisions, which are made independently by the fund's Executive Board [3][4] - The fund's ethics council had previously recommended divesting from Caterpillar due to concerns over human rights violations [6][9] - The divestment from Caterpillar and Israeli banks was part of a broader strategy to simplify the fund's portfolio in response to increased scrutiny and ethical considerations [9][10]

Core Insights - A total of 1526 A-share listed companies disclosed their 2025 semi-annual reports, with 921 companies achieving year-on-year net profit growth, representing approximately 60.35% [1] - The electronic, transportation, agriculture, automotive, machinery, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and social services sectors showed strong performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Among the 1526 companies, 761 reported net profit growth exceeding 10%, 501 exceeded 30%, 359 exceeded 50%, 210 exceeded 100%, and 66 exceeded 300% [1] - Notable companies with significant net profit growth include Shumatech, XianDa Co., Zhimingda, Rongzhi Rixin, Shijia Photon, and Suotong Development [1] - 567 companies reported net profits over 100 million yuan, 180 over 500 million yuan, 88 over 1 billion yuan, 19 over 5 billion yuan, and 8 over 10 billion yuan [2] - China Mobile, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, China Telecom, Sinopec, Industrial Fulian, Muyuan Foods, Huaneng International, and Luoyang Molybdenum were among the top net profit earners [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The electronic, transportation, agriculture, automotive, machinery, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and social services sectors showed strong revenue performance [3] - In the electronic sector, companies in consumer electronics and semiconductors performed exceptionally well [3] - In agriculture, companies in breeding and animal health sectors showed significant performance improvements [3] - Muyuan Foods achieved revenue of 764.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and net profit of 107.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 952.92% [3] Group 3: Dividend Announcements - A total of 265 A-share listed companies announced their 2025 mid-term dividend plans [4] - 188 companies plan to distribute cash dividends exceeding 1 yuan per 10 shares, 77 companies exceeding 3 yuan, 38 companies exceeding 5 yuan, and 15 companies exceeding 10 yuan [4] - Notable companies with high cash dividends include JiBit, Ninebot, Shuoshi Bio, China Mobile, Dongpeng Beverage, Siwei Liekong, Dong'a Ejiao, and Aimeike [4] - Among the 265 companies, 111 plan to distribute over 100 million yuan, 77 over 200 million yuan, and 37 over 500 million yuan in dividends [4] Group 4: Specific Company Announcements - China CNR announced revenue of 1197.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.99%, and net profit of 72.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.48% [5] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 31.57 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a "slow bull" trend over the past month, with significant increases in major indices, particularly driven by the semiconductor industry and increased trading volumes [2][6][9]. Market Performance - On August 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21 points, up 1.04% from the previous day, marking a continuous upward trend since July 9, when it first touched 3500 points [2]. - The index has risen from 3500 to 3700 points in just 28 trading days, with a total increase of 5.80% over the past month (July 21 to August 20) [2]. Index and Sector Performance - The electronic sector led the market with a remarkable increase of 25.42% over the past month, followed by the comprehensive and machinery equipment sectors, which rose by 17.45% and 17.05%, respectively [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index reached 40.74 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Composite Index reached 16.28 trillion yuan [5]. Trading Volume and Capital Inflow - A-share trading volume has significantly increased, with daily trading exceeding 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days from August 13 to August 20 [6][12]. - Northbound capital trading volume has also risen, reaching 3170.90 billion yuan on August 20, accounting for 13.0% of the total trading volume for that day [12][13]. Key Stocks and Investment Trends - Major stocks attracting significant capital inflow include Huadian New Energy, which saw over 3 billion yuan in net inflow over the past 30 trading days, and technology companies like ZTE Corporation and GoerTek, benefiting from industry trends [12]. - The non-banking financial sector has shown an increase of 8.36%, while the banking sector has been the only financial sub-sector to decline in the past month [9].

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Deere's stock falls due to struggling farmers delaying machinery rebound [1] Financial Performance - Bloomberg Stock Movers report provides details on Deere's stock performance [1]

Group 1 - On August 11, among the 31 first-level industries, 24 industries received net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 1.724 billion [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included non-ferrous metals (1.598 billion), electric equipment (1.597 billion), machinery (1.526 billion), defense and military (1.336 billion), banking (1.238 billion), and chemicals (0.827 billion) [1] Group 2 - A total of 2,088 individual stocks received net financing inflows on August 11, with 208 stocks having inflows exceeding 30 million [1] - Among these, 39 stocks had net inflows exceeding 100 million, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading at 471 million [1] - Other notable stocks with high net inflows included Dazhu Laser (447 million), Ningde Times (409 million), Shenghong Technology (350 million), Xinyisheng (325 million), Salt Lake Co. (308 million), China Shipbuilding (253 million), Shenghe Resources (214 million), and Northern Rare Earth (212 million) [1]