镍&不锈钢：短期基本面无明显驱动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.79% | 0.7% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 涨 | 根据 ...

镍&不锈钢：短期仍以震荡为主 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.67% | 0.4% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 涨 | 根据生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The black metal futures market in China showed mixed performance on May 16, with silicon iron prices rising while iron ore and rebar prices declined [1] Price Movements - Silicon iron main contract increased by 1.13%, reaching 5716.00 CNY/ton [1] - Iron ore main contract decreased by 0.95%, settling at 728.00 CNY/ton [1] - Rebar main contract fell by 0.77%, closing at 3094.00 CNY/ton [1] - Wire rod main contract dropped by 0.84%, ending at 3408.00 CNY/ton [1] Opening and Closing Prices - Rebar opened at 3119.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3118.00 CNY [1] - Iron ore opened at 735.50 CNY, with a previous close of 736.50 CNY [1] - Stainless steel opened at 13000.00 CNY, with a previous close of 13050.00 CNY [1] - Hot-rolled coil opened at 3255.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3257.00 CNY [1] - Wire rod opened at 3424.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3437.00 CNY [1] - Silicon iron opened at 5710.00 CNY, with a previous close of 5652.00 CNY [1] - Manganese silicon opened at 5860.00 CNY, with a previous close of 5868.00 CNY [1] Warehouse Data - Rebar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8188 tons, totaling 143201 tons [1] - Iron ore futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 2800 lots [1] - Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons, totaling 158715 tons [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2330 tons, totaling 274741 tons [1] - Manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased by 429 lots, totaling 120158 lots [1] - Silicon iron futures warehouse receipts decreased by 60 lots, totaling 19189 lots [1] Basis Data - Rebar showed a basis of 71 CNY with a basis rate of 2.23% [1] - Wire rod had a negative basis of -59 CNY with a basis rate of -1.75% [1] - Hot-rolled coil had a basis of 56 CNY with a basis rate of 1.69% [1] - Stainless steel had a basis of 205 CNY with a basis rate of 1.55% [1] - Silicon iron had a negative basis of -227 CNY with a basis rate of -4.18% [1] - Manganese silicon had a negative basis of -162 CNY with a basis rate of -2.84% [1] - Iron ore had a basis of 59 CNY with a basis rate of 7.43% [1]

+91 226 842 1482 With Nifty nearing 25,000, we are now back to usual business after a dramatic weekend that culminated in India-Pakistan ceasefire (an uneasy calm, but we'll take it). We had advised in our previous notes to buy the dip given instances of sharp market recovery immediately once the escalation is behind. This report marks a return from the geopolitical Nikhil Arela to the fundamental, as we dissect the earnings to see what lies ahead. We retain our nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com positive view on ...

I am an individual investor with over 10 years of trading. I have been developing as a stock analyst for the last five years. I am inclined to search for Value companies, mainly linked to the production of commodities. I mainly focus on companies that show sustained free cash flows over time, low levels of leverage, sustainable debt over time, that are going through some stage of distress but with high recovery potential. I prefer to analyze companies and sectors that are not widely taken into account by th ...

Company Overview - Teck Resources Limited is a leading Canadian resource company focused on responsibly providing metals essential to economic development and the energy transition [3] - The company has a portfolio of world-class copper and zinc operations across North and South America, along with an industry-leading copper growth pipeline [3] - Teck is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and its shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange [3] Upcoming Presentation - Teck's President and CEO Jonathan Price will present at the BofA Securities Global Metals, Mining & Steel conference on May 13, 2025 [1] - The presentation will cover company strategy, financial performance, and outlook for the company's business units [1] - The presentation will be available via webcast and supporting slides on Teck's website [2]

铅精矿加工费仍低位维持，富含计价金属价格波动较大，炼厂原料采买较谨慎；再生铅在原料偏紧及亏 损的背景下，安徽、江苏、江西等地炼厂减产，且新增产能延后投产，供应缩减。铅蓄电池企业开工小 幅恢复，但电池替换已步入尾声，经销商成品库存累计较多，存在库存压力。短期铅价基本面支撑较 强，宏观方面短期或暂无利好，铅价或震荡调整为主。 消息面 4月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铅注册仓单116625吨，注销仓单150650吨，减少3750吨；铅库存 267275吨，减少3750吨。 周二，上海市场驰宏铅16975-17005元/吨，对沪铅2505合约升水50-80元/吨；济金铅16925-16945元/吨， 对沪铅2505合约升水0-20元/吨；江浙地区金德铅报16925-16945元/吨，对沪铅2505合约升水0-20元/吨。 机构观点 中金财富期货： 4月29日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得38398吨，较上一交易日增加427吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计 减少4348吨，减少幅度为10.17%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计减少24517吨，减少幅度为38.97%。 五矿期货： 铅矿库存录增，原生开工高企，废料库存有限， ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带 到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 刘昊 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 市场在4月经历了极致悲观定价后的快速修复，铜价从4月1日至今震荡幅度接近12%，但跌幅已经回落至4%下方，暗示商品定价的修复已经 完成大部分。进而另一个讨论是，市场在交易了4月初风险偏好释放并将利空定价一蹴而就后，修复式定价的上边界是否快要触及？ 我们理解这一问题的回答仍需要从中美双方的经济现实出发，美国仍然在交易滞胀中的"滞"，而"通胀未胀"；中国则是交易"通缩未 缩"。对于国内出口商而言，关税冲击促使企业寻找新的出口目的地，以东南亚、墨西哥以及加拿大为主，核心证据是国内往上述国 家出口的运费上涨，这些国家乐意承接贸易转口的利润，形成一轮主动从中国进口商品，使得国内出口数据不至于急转直下，这是国 内通缩未缩的核 ...

Group 1 - The recent decline in waste battery prices has led to a slight recovery in the profitability of recycled lead enterprises, although they still operate at a loss, with losses narrowing from approximately 700 yuan/ton to about 500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The decrease in social inventory of lead ingots is primarily due to weak downstream demand, with battery demand entering a low season and terminal distributors' battery inventories at seasonal highs [5][6] - The short-term outlook for lead prices remains under pressure due to weak demand, but medium-term expectations suggest limited downside potential, supported by the need for battery companies to replenish stocks [6] Group 2 - The recent drop in waste battery prices is attributed to increased selling pressure from recyclers ahead of the May Day holiday, despite prices remaining at 10,300 yuan/ton, leading to continued losses for recycled lead enterprises [4] - The decline in social inventory of lead ingots is mainly a result of reduced production from recycled lead companies, with expectations of a rebound in inventory post-holiday due to weak consumption [5][6] - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 16,500 to 17,300 yuan for Shanghai lead and 1,920 to 2,050 USD for London lead [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].