2025年，价格最疯狂的商品是什么? 说起来可能很难相信，答案并不是黄金古玩，也不是奇珍奢品，而是最普普通通的 ——鸡蛋。 今年1月，日本人爆发了鸡蛋恐慌。 据日媒报道，东京中等大小鸡蛋29日基准批发价为每公斤295日元(约合14元人民币)，比1年前高出近60%。 这直接唤醒了2022年同期日本"全国无蛋"的记忆，日本农林水产省甚至建议使用鸡蛋的厂商改用冷冻蛋液库 存。 曾经的世界第二经济强国为了鸡蛋提心吊胆，已经足够让人惊讶。然而更荒诞的是，紧接着日本，当今世界 第一强国在对外挥动关税大棒耀武扬威的同时，竟然出现了更严重的鸡蛋荒。 今年1月，美国劳工统计局公布的一打A级鸡蛋均价达4.95美元的历史新高，突破了2年前同一时间4.82美元 的纪录。这还没完，3月，这个数字变成了6.23美元，短短2个月又涨了25%。 对比起2018年1.49美元的均价，美国鸡蛋价格这7年涨了318%，远超同期黄金价格180%的涨幅！ 根据Clarify Capital的调查，因为价格，34%的美国人已停止购买鸡蛋。三分之一的人买不起鸡蛋，很难想象 这是2025年超级大国的生活状态。 日本、美国这轮鸡蛋短缺的共同原因是禽流感。日本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in Q1 and maintains a long-term positive outlook for the pet sector [3] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a long-term bearish outlook for 2025 due to increased supply [5][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [6][28] - The animal health sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [7][39] - The planting sector is experiencing a significant decrease in grain imports, which may affect pricing dynamics [8][44] - The feed sector remains at a low level, with expectations of increased industry concentration [9][47] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong domestic brand performance [10][52] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly downwards, with a long-term bearish trend anticipated for 2025 due to increased production capacity [5][14] - As of April 24, the average pig price was 14.96 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may benefit from tariff impacts, with a potential price increase due to supply chain disruptions [6][28] - The industry is expected to stabilize at low production levels, leading to stable profitability [6][29] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing improved performance, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [7][39] - The prices of key raw materials are rising, which may enhance the performance of related companies [7][39] Planting Sector - A notable decline in grain imports was recorded in March, with a 73.5% year-on-year decrease [8][44] - The prices of major grains have shown some recovery, with corn priced at 2220 CNY/ton as of April 25 [8][44] Feed Industry - Feed prices are currently low, with a slight decrease in the price of pig feed [9][47] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for leading companies [9][49] Pet Industry - The pet market in China reached a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [10][52] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with significant growth reported for leading pet food brands [10][56]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price has been fluctuating, with the average price on April 24 being 14.92 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week. The second batch of fattening pigs accounted for 9.73% of the total sales, an increase of 4.38 percentage points compared to the previous ten days [2][12][34] - In the poultry sector, the white chicken price has slightly adjusted downwards due to limited demand as the May Day stocking approaches its end. The average price for meat chickens was 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] - The seed industry is seeing enhanced regulatory activities focusing on intellectual property protection, which is expected to improve market order and support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pig price has shown fluctuations, with a slight recovery in average weight. The average weight of pigs sold was 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week. The slaughter volume has slightly increased, with an average daily slaughter of 139,600 pigs, up 2.16% week-on-week [2][12][16][24] - The price difference between different weight categories of pigs is narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][24][34] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing a slight price adjustment due to seasonal factors and limited demand. The average price for chicken chicks was 2.85 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird week-on-week [3][36][40] - The egg price has continued to rise, with an average price of 7.25 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture has initiated a regulatory campaign to enhance intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] - The report notes a strong short-term trend in soybean meal prices, with the current price at 3,580.00 yuan/ton, up 78.00 yuan/ton week-on-week, driven by supply constraints [3][49]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Increase" [5] Core Views - The pet industry shows strong performance with leading companies reporting significant revenue growth and an increasing share of domestic business. The trend of brand localization and premiumization is evident, with 2024 revenue growth for leading companies such as Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. at 21.22%, 19.15%, and 17.56% respectively, while net profit growth is 45.68%, 68.89%, and 1743% respectively [1][12] - In Q1 2025, Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reported revenue growth of 34.82% and 25.41% respectively, while Petty Co. experienced a decline of 14.4% [1][12] - The domestic business of Zhongchong Co. grew by 30.26%, accounting for 31.67% of total revenue, while Guibao Pet's domestic business grew by 24%, making up 67.71% of its revenue [1][12] - The self-owned brand revenue of Guibao Pet reached 3.545 billion yuan, growing by 29% year-on-year, representing 67.6% of its total revenue [1][12] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - Leading pet companies reported strong growth in both revenue and net profit, with significant increases in domestic business and self-owned brand revenue [1][12] - Douyin's sales data for March 2025 shows a sales revenue of 818 million yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 18.004 million, up 34.12% year-on-year, indicating a positive growth trend for top domestic brands [2][13] Livestock Farming - The national price for lean meat pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous week, with a focus on low-cost, high-growth companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][14] - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.4%, and the average price for chicken products is 8.9 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [14][28] - The price for meat chicken seedlings is 2.85 yuan each, down 4% from the previous week [14][26] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution are confirmed [14] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is increasing, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [14]

宠物公司业绩表现亮眼，行业持续高景气 同时，宠物营销界发布 3 月数据：抖音作为新内容平台，销量、销售 额数据均呈现同比增长，看好头部国产品牌中长期成长空间。根据宠 物营销界数据，抖音 2025 年 3 月情况如下：销售额达到 8.18 亿，同 比+24.32%，销售量 1800.4 万，同比+34.12%；客单价下降 6.27%， 关联商品数增长 2.7%，关联品牌数增长 0.43%，关联小店数增长 29.94%，关联达人数增长 34.65%。其中销售额前五品牌情况：1）抖 音狗主粮：麦富迪、伯纳天纯、明亮与狗、比乐、鲜粮说，2）抖音猫 主粮：麦富迪、弗列加特、卫仕、喵梵思、蓝氏。淘宝 2025 年 3 月情 况如下：1）淘宝猫主粮：销量环比上升了29.30%，同比下降了21.25%； 销售额环比上升了 35.34%，同比下降了 21.37%。2）淘宝狗主粮：销 量环比上升 33.78%，同比下降了 17.79%；销售额环比上升 36.26%， 同比下降 12.56%，抖音新内容平台增长较好。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉 ...

开平"马冈鹅"备 战农博会！_南 方+_南方plus 2025年4月14 日，在第十四届 广东省现代农业 博览会开幕前 夕，江门市人大 常委会副主任余 中华带队拜访广 东省农业农村 厅，就马冈鹅产 业链高质量发展 展开深入探讨， 寻求支持与合 作。作为广东四 大名鹅之首、国 家地理标志农产 品，马冈鹅近年 来通过科技赋 能、品牌塑造、 三产融合等举 措，已成为开平 市乡村振兴的核 心引擎。 会议上，开平市 马冈镇党委书记 郁长青、江门市 农业农村局副局 长王小丽、江门 市人大常委会副 主任余中华等围 绕马冈鹅产业化 升级作系统阐 述。 作为马冈鹅的原 产地，马冈镇近 年来被评为全 国"一村一品"示 范镇（肉鹅）、 广东省"一村一 品一镇一业"专 业镇、江门市马 冈鹅养殖专业 镇、开平市农业 专业镇，拥有全 国范围的马冈鹅 种鹅定价权。郁 长青提到："马 冈镇现有马冈鹅 养殖场300家， 马冈镇马冈鹅种 鹅饲养总量30万 羽，2024年产鹅 苗750万对，出 栏肉鹅500万 充到，马冈鹅的 产业发展融合了 第一、二、三产 业，且十分注重 种质资源的保 护，2022年成功 创建全省首个马 冈鹅省级畜禽遗 传资源保 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and self-sufficiency in agriculture, highlighting the recent issuance of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" by the Central Committee and the State Council [1][17] - The plan focuses on ensuring stable and safe supply of food and important agricultural products, with a commitment to protect 1.865 billion acres of arable land and 1.546 billion acres of permanent basic farmland [1][17] - The report notes the acceleration of genetically modified (GM) crop approvals, with 99 GM varieties recently passing initial review, indicating a potential increase in GM crop planting and market penetration [2][18] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The average price of lean pigs is 14.56 CNY/kg, down 0.3% from last week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 20.84 CNY/kg, also down 0.3% [21][22] - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3%, and the average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.9 CNY/kg [19][35] - The report highlights the potential for investment in companies involved in the commercialization of GM crops, as the approval process is expected to enhance growth prospects for industry players [19] Livestock and Poultry - In pig farming, the report suggests focusing on leading companies with favorable cost-performance ratios, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][19] - In poultry farming, the report indicates a potential recovery in chicken prices and suggests monitoring seasonal price elasticity opportunities [19] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of GM varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with the report anticipating positive impacts on industry growth and profitability [19] - The report also notes that fluctuations in agricultural product prices are increasing, with leading feed companies likely to benefit from their scale and supply chain advantages [19]

Group 1 - The company Minghe Co., Ltd. (002234) reported the sale of 26.1377 million chicks in March 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.07% and a month-on-month increase of 2.85% [1] - The sales revenue for the same period was 73.7427 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13.61% but a month-on-month increase of 34.85% [1] - The month-on-month increase in sales revenue is attributed to the stabilization of the white feather broiler market and the gradual increase in chick prices [1]

Core Insights - The impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from the US and New Zealand is expected to continue into 2025, with zero import of breeding stock from these countries since December 2024, leading to potential supply shortages in the domestic market [1][4] - The parent stock chick sales remain high, but the meat chicken industry chain prices have been relatively weak since 2025 [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - As of March 2025, the stock of breeding chickens is at a record high since 2019, with 1.3586 million breeding stock and 22.8669 million parent stock [1] - Parent stock chick sales in 2024 reached 75.2214 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - The average price of parent stock chicks in January and February 2025 was 53.63 CNY/set and 46.5 CNY/set, showing significant year-on-year growth of 43.4% and 32.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Price Trends - The prices of commodity chicks have shown a downward trend, with averages of 2.06 CNY/bird and 1.84 CNY/bird in January and February 2025, reflecting year-on-year declines of 23.2% and 58.7% [2] - White feather chicken prices were recorded at 7.41 CNY/kg, 6.05 CNY/kg, and 7.13 CNY/kg from January to March 2025, marking the lowest levels since 2018 [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The total breeding stock update in 2024 was 1.5007 million sets, the highest since 2014, but the update volume dropped significantly in early 2025 due to HPAI impacts [3][4] - The overseas breeding stock update is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to ongoing outbreaks of HPAI in the US and New Zealand, which have halted imports [4]