交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-09甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，短期尚有部分内地货源流入套利，且本周进口到货集中，库存或有累积风险，另随着伊朗装置 逐步恢复，后续进口量回升预期下，短期业者信心不足，不过伊朗中止与联合国核监督机构合作，宏观面尚存支撑，短 期港口甲醇多空博弈下震荡为主。内地方面，上游甲醇企业库存不多，加之近期产区甲醇装置集中检修，供应端并无压 力，对行情有一定支撑。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 制冷剂价格持续上涨，2025 年上半年业绩高速增长 | 公司研究·公司快评  | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 张歆钰 | 021-60375408 | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524080004 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年 7 月 8 日，公司发布《2025 年半年度业绩预增公告》及《2025 年上半年主要经营数据 公告》。根据公司公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 半年度，公司实现归母净利润为 19.7 亿元到 21.3 亿元，与上年同期相比增长 136%-155%。预计 2025 半年度，公司扣非后归母净利润为 19.5 亿元到 21.1 亿 元，与上年同期相比增长 146%-166% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 491-513 million RMB for 25H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [1][6] - The growth in net profit is primarily driven by the expansion in advanced electronic materials and battery materials, as well as the reduction of losses in biomass production [2][3] - The company is releasing production capacity for advanced electronic materials and battery materials, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company anticipates a net profit of 4.91-5.13 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 4.71-4.93 billion RMB, both showing a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [1][6] - The second quarter is projected to yield a net profit of 2.84-3.06 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46%-58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37%-48% [1][2] Growth Drivers - The growth in net profit is attributed to the demand in AI and other fields, which has led to increased production and sales of advanced electronic materials and battery materials [2][3] - The company is expanding its market share and sales volume in synthetic resins due to new fields of application [2] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is gradually releasing production capacity for advanced electronic materials, including 1000 tons/year of PPO resin and 1000 tons/year of porous carbon [3] - Future expansion plans include starting projects for 2000 tons/year of PPO/OPE resin and other resin products, which are expected to contribute to profitability [3][4] Valuation and Price Target - The net profit forecasts for 25-27 are adjusted to 1.20 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.61 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 16%, and 15% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 34.08 RMB, based on a 24x PE valuation for 25, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 27.09 RMB [4][6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic excavator sales, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [5] - The investment in ultra-high voltage projects is accelerating, with expected investments surpassing 650 billion yuan in 2025, suggesting strong growth potential in the energy sector [5] - Global semiconductor sales reached 59 billion USD in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, reflecting robust demand in the technology sector [5] Industry Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to support employment initiatives, which is expected to create jobs for 310,000 key groups [4] - Seven departments have issued a document to expedite the development of a universal childcare service system, indicating a focus on social infrastructure [4] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expanding the range of institutions participating in the southbound trading scheme, which may enhance market liquidity [4] Company Focus - Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276) is set to increase its annual production capacity to 60,000 tons after the completion of its high-performance polymer insulation project, raising its market share from 15% to approximately 20% [6] - United Chemical (301209) plans to invest 120 million yuan in Zhuoguangrui Technology, acquiring a 19.35% stake post-investment [6] - Jinling Mining (000655) anticipates a net profit growth of 66.48% to 111.54% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by increased sales of its main product, iron concentrate [6] - Keda Intelligent (300222) has a subsidiary that holds an 18% stake in a company supplying charging piles for Xiaomi's electric vehicles, indicating strategic partnerships in the EV sector [6] Market Review and Outlook - On July 8, the market opened slightly higher and experienced a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.7% at 3,497 points, reaching a new high for the period [7] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [7] - The report notes a rotation in market sentiment, with funds shifting from defensive dividend sectors to undervalued growth sectors, particularly in the ChiNext index, which shows greater elasticity [8] - The recent emphasis on anti-involution policies and supply-side reforms suggests potential investment opportunities in sectors aligned with these themes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and contributions of Xia Jie, a senior technician in the chemical quality inspection field at Yunnan Yuntianhua Red Phosphorus Chemical Co., Ltd, showcasing her journey from a novice to a key technical figure in the company, and her significant role in enhancing product quality and operational efficiency [3][4][5]. Group 1: Professional Development - Xia Jie began her career at Red Phosphorus Chemical in 2000, quickly adapting to complex instruments and data analysis through rigorous learning and mentorship [4]. - Over the years, she transformed from a beginner to a technical expert, playing a crucial role in the analysis and guidance of new equipment trials and product development [4]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - In 2019, Xia Jie contributed to a significant technical upgrade involving a new potassium dihydrogen phosphate production process, which required the laboratory to provide 207 data points daily across 23 control points and 83 analysis projects [4]. - She developed and standardized analysis methods that significantly reduced operational costs and improved the success rate of equipment trials [4][5]. Group 3: Contributions to Company Growth - Xia Jie has been instrumental in the internationalization of the company's brand, creating mathematical models for efficient resource utilization, which supported the integrated production model of "mining-acid-fertilizer" [5]. - Her efforts have strengthened the market position of the "Bai Xian" brand in Vietnam, enhancing the company's export advantages [5]. Group 4: Talent Development - Xia Jie established a "master-apprentice + school-enterprise linkage" model to train over 30 technical personnel, facilitating their advancement to engineering and technician roles [6][7]. - She organized over 30 skill training sessions and chemical inspection competitions, promoting skill development and recognition among employees [6][7]. Group 5: Recognition and Awards - Over the years, Xia Jie has received numerous accolades, including the title of "National Labor Model" in 2025, reflecting her exceptional contributions to the industry [7].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/07/0 2 801 2465 2480 2460 2550 2445 2603 277 345 18 45 -1240 2025/07/0 3 801 2470 2468 2500 2550 2445 2610 280 345 48 45 -1268 2025/07/0 4 801 2455 2465 2495 2550 2445 2610 277 340 58 35 -1219 2025/07/0 7 801 2437 2448 2485 2550 2445 2585 277 340 36 25 -1219 2025/07/0 8 801 2420 2428 2475 2540 2445 2565 277 340 18 20 -1174 日度变化 0 -17 -20 -10 -10 0 -20 0 0 -18 -5 45 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡 ...

期货研究报告|丙烯专题 2025-07-09 丙烯系列报告-丙烯下游需求介绍 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 本篇为丙烯系列报告第三篇，主要介绍丙烯下游需求情况，包括下游消费量、消费增速、 消费结构，以及聚丙烯、环氧丙烷、丁辛醇、丙烯酸、丙烯腈、苯酚、丙酮、环氧氯丙 烷等下游品种，对丙烯下游产业链进行全面解读。 丙烯下游应用广泛，主要用于生产聚丙烯，此外还可合成环氧丙烷、丙烯腈、丙烯酸、 苯酚、丙酮等化学品，主要应用于塑料、医药、农业等领域。 随着中国经济社会高速发展，国内丙烯需求增长强劲，消费量与表 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) has achieved a significant breakthrough in the development of a fluidized bed hydrogen peroxide production technology, breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly and providing technological support for the upgrade of domestic hydrogen peroxide production technology [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Development - The newly developed fluidized bed hydrogen peroxide production technology has been in development for 15 years, resulting in 72 Chinese invention patents and 1 PCT international patent [3]. - The technology integrates multiple innovations, including three types of catalysts, three process enhancements, and two new reactions, significantly improving production efficiency and enabling large-scale production [3][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Production Capacity - In 2022, China accounted for over 50% of the global hydrogen peroxide market share, with an annual production capacity of 24 million tons, although the production process primarily relied on outdated fixed bed technology [3]. - The first domestic industrial production unit using Sinopec's fluidized bed technology was established in Hunan in 2018, with a capacity of 72,000 tons per year, outperforming domestic technology standards [4]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Economic Impact - The fluidized bed technology is expected to address essential safety issues in hydrogen peroxide production and has been recognized for its industry promotion value [4]. - In 2024, Hunan Petrochemical is projected to produce a total of 585,000 tons of hydrogen peroxide, with significant reductions in comprehensive energy consumption compared to the previous year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd., is actively responding to regulatory inquiries regarding its 2024 annual report, particularly focusing on its mining operations and financial disclosures related to its mineral resources [1][2]. Mining Operations - The company holds a total of 40 mining rights, including 34 exploration rights and 6 mining rights, with an investment of approximately 620 million yuan for acquiring these rights [1][2]. - The mining sector has become a core contributor to the company's operating profits, with an expected profit contribution of 250 million yuan from phosphate rock sales in 2024 [1][2]. - The company employs a phased investment and rolling development strategy in its mining operations to manage risks and ensure cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating income of 8.547 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, down 97.55% from the previous year [1][12]. - The phosphate and salt mines have generated significant revenue, with phosphate sales expected to increase as construction projects are completed [5][12]. Investment Strategy - The company is strategically expanding into the mining sector, aligning with macroeconomic policies and market conditions, while leveraging its existing resources and personnel expertise [9][10]. - The company has established a robust management structure and has recruited over 180 new employees in the mining sector since 2024, enhancing its operational capabilities [8][9]. Risk Management - The company utilizes a joint venture model for overseas mining projects to mitigate risks and ensure compliance with local regulations [10][11]. - A comprehensive risk control framework is in place for both domestic and international mining operations, focusing on environmental protection, safety, and regulatory compliance [10][11]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - The company has achieved significant sales in its mining operations, with phosphate and salt mines contributing to the majority of its revenue [5][12]. - The sales model primarily involves internal sales within the group, with a high collection rate of 90% on receivables [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has completed the registration change of its capital and the amendment of its articles of association, reflecting a registered capital of 1,914.344077 million RMB [2][3]. Group 1 - The company held its 31st meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on April 11, 2025, where the proposal for changing the registered capital and amending the articles of association was approved [2]. - The proposal was subsequently approved at the 2024 annual general meeting held on May 8, 2025 [2]. - The company has completed the necessary business registration changes and obtained a new business license from the Guangzhou Market Supervision Administration [2]. Group 2 - The latest registered capital of the company is 1,914.344077 million RMB [2]. - The company operates in various sectors including manufacturing of basic chemical raw materials, synthetic materials, battery manufacturing, and environmental materials [2]. - The company is located in Huangpu District, Guangzhou, and was established on June 6, 2000 [2].