Group 1 - As of December 9, 2025, two stocks in the communication services sector are showing signs of being overbought, which may concern momentum-focused investors [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key momentum indicator, with a value above 70 indicating that a stock may be overbought [2] Group 2 - Warner Bros Discovery Inc (NASDAQ:WBD) has an RSI value of 82.3, with its stock price rising 4.4% to close at $27.23 on Monday, following a tender offer from Paramount Skydance Corp at $30 per share, valuing the company at $108.4 billion [6] - Fox Corp (NASDAQ:FOX) reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results with a revenue increase of 5% year over year to $3.74 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, and an adjusted net income of $686 million, or $1.51 per share, which also surpassed analyst estimates [6]

Group 1 - As of December 9, 2025, two stocks in the communication services sector are showing signs of being overbought, which may concern momentum-focused investors [1][2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key momentum indicator, with a value above 70 indicating that a stock may be overbought [2] Group 2 - Warner Bros Discovery Inc (NASDAQ:WBD) has an RSI value of 82.3, with its stock price rising 4.4% to close at $27.23 on Monday, following a tender offer from Paramount Skydance Corp at $30 per share, valuing the company at $108.4 billion [6] - Fox Corp (NASDAQ:FOX) reported fiscal first-quarter 2026 results with revenue of $3.74 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, and adjusted net income of $686 million, or $1.51 per share, exceeding analysts' expectations [6] - Fox's stock has gained approximately 24% over the past six months, closing at $61.26 on Monday, with a 52-week high of $61.66 and an RSI value of 70.9 [6]

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Spotify.Getty Images Good morning! Here is the latest in trending:Flipping the script: Paramount (PSKY) goes hostile for Warner Bros. (WBD), but Netflix (NFLX) is 'super confident' about the deal. Additional worries surface over a 'five-alarm antitrust fire.'It's official: President Trump has blessed sales of Nvidia's (NVDA) H200 GPUs to China and a similar approach will be applied to other c ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global markets experienced volatility due to a sharp increase in yields on U.S. Treasuries, German bunds, and Japanese government bonds, influenced by hawkish policy signals and significant U.S. debt sales [2][3] - The S&P 500 index ended lower on Monday, but stock index futures remained stable on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a rate cut, with significant labor market data on job openings being released before the decision [3] - European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel indicated that the next ECB rate move will be higher, contributing to long-dated German yields reaching 14-year highs [4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Paramount Skydance initiated a hostile bid worth $108 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery in a competitive move against Netflix, resulting in a 7.3% increase in Paramount's shares and a 5.3% rise in Warner Bros. Discovery's shares [5] - Nvidia's stock rose 2% after the U.S. government announced it would allow the export of its H200 AI processors to China, with a 25% fee on sales [6] Group 4: Regulatory Issues - Alphabet's Google is facing an EU antitrust investigation regarding its use of online content from web publishers and YouTube videos to train its AI models [6]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed volatility, fluctuating between gains and losses after declines on Monday, with major benchmark indices futures up [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting is underway, with a focus on a potential rate cut decision expected tomorrow [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is at 4.15%, while the two-year bond yield is at 3.58%, with an 89.4% likelihood of a rate cut in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [1] Futures Performance - Dow Jones futures increased by 0.04%, S&P 500 by 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 by 0.02%, while Russell 2000 decreased by 0.06% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose by 0.063% to $684.06, and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) increased by 0.016% to $624.38 in premarket trading [2] Stocks in Focus - Ares Management Corp. (ARES) surged by 8.71% after being announced for inclusion in the S&P 500 index effective December 11 [6] - Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) increased by 1.57% following confirmation from President Trump that NVDA can ship H200 chips to approved customers in China and other countries [6] - Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) fell by 3.49% after reporting mixed financial results for Q4 of fiscal 2025 [6] - Tesla Inc. (TSLA) declined by 0.94% after Morgan Stanley downgraded it to equal-weight due to high valuation concerns [6] - Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) rose by 1.72% after launching a $30 per share tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD), valuing it at $108.4 billion [13] Economic Insights - The Comerica Economic Weekly report indicates a cooling economy and anticipates a rate reduction of a quarter percentage point at the FOMC's final meeting of the year [10] - The report highlights a weaker job market with a decline in private payrolls and rising job cuts, alongside persistent inflation pressures from food and energy costs [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a significant decline in the S&P 500 index in 2026, driven by historical valuation metrics, particularly the Shiller P/E Ratio [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The Shiller P/E Ratio, which averages 17.32 since 1871, currently stands at 40.46, indicating that the market is significantly overvalued [8][9]. - Historical data shows that when the Shiller P/E exceeds 30, it has consistently predicted declines of 20% or more in the S&P 500 [11]. - A potential retracement of the Shiller P/E to 27 could imply a loss of nearly one-third of the S&P 500's value, suggesting a target level around 4,600 [12]. Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the S&P 500 has increased by nearly 17% year-to-date, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average showing gains of 22.1% and 12.7%, respectively [6][7]. - The article notes that significant sell-offs in major indexes can create opportunities for long-term investors [15]. Historical Context - The article references a study by Bespoke Investment Group, indicating that bear markets have historically lasted an average of 286 days, while bull markets have persisted for about 1,011 days [17]. - Crestmont Research found that all rolling 20-year periods since 1900 have yielded positive annualized total returns for the S&P 500, suggesting long-term growth potential despite short-term volatility [19].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has withdrawn from the takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery by Paramount Skydance Corp to avoid increased scrutiny of foreign investments in the US [1][2][4] Group 1: Tencent's Involvement - Tencent had initially pledged US$1 billion as part of Paramount's proposal to acquire Warner Bros, but was removed as a financing partner in the latest all-cash offer of US$30 per share [2][4] - The decision to remove Tencent was influenced by concerns from Warner Bros regarding potential reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Tencent's withdrawal highlights the tightening regulatory environment for Chinese investments in significant US media and technology deals [4] - The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a "Chinese military company" in January 2025, leading to increased scrutiny of its activities in the US [5][6] Group 3: Tencent's Financial Position - Tencent has a market capitalization of approximately US$700 billion and over US$20 billion in cash and equivalents as of the end of September, indicating strong financial capacity for overseas acquisitions [5] - The company holds stakes in several US tech and gaming firms, including Epic Games and Snap Inc., despite the regulatory challenges it faces [5]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, backed by Jared Kushner's private equity firm and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds [1] - The deal involves $12 billion in financing from the Ellison family and $24 billion from Middle East sovereign wealth funds [11] - Regulatory hurdles are a wild card, with potential influence from Donald Trump [5] Key Players and Influence - Jared Kushner's involvement is significant, despite being "buried" in SEC filings [11] - Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar are providing substantial investment [1] - David Ellison has reportedly discussed CNN with Donald Trump [8] Regulatory Concerns and Political Influence - The potential acquisition raises concerns about media control and influence, reminiscent of authoritarian playbooks [18] - There are concerns that the Ellison family might influence CNN's editorial direction to be more favorable to Donald Trump [9] - The involvement of Trump's son-in-law and the personalized diplomacy with Trump raise ethical questions [15][16] Strategic Motivations - Middle Eastern investors may seek soft power and aim to attract US dollars through tourism and positive media coverage [21][23] - The acquisition could lead to increased control over major news organizations, raising concerns about media bias [20]

Market Overview - Wall Street's main indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 losing 23.89 points (0.35%) to 6,846.51, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 215.67 points (0.45%) to 47,739.32, and the Nasdaq Composite down 32.22 points (0.14%) to 23,545.90 [10] - The S&P 500 Communication Services Index was the biggest laggard, closing down 1.8%, primarily due to Netflix's performance [2][10] - The technology sector was the only advancing sector, gaining 0.9%, driven by Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom [2][10] Company-Specific Developments - Paramount Skydance made a hostile bid of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros Discovery, which led to a 4.4% increase in Warner Bros Discovery's shares and a 9% rise in Paramount's shares, while Netflix's stock dropped 3.4% [10] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, ended down more than 2%, contributing to the decline in the communications services index [11] - Marvell Technology shares fell 7% after Carvana secured a spot in the S&P 500, while Carvana's shares rose 12% [11] - Confluent shares surged 29% following IBM's announcement to acquire the data-infrastructure company for approximately $11 billion, while IBM's shares increased modestly by 0.4% [11] - Tesla's shares declined by 3% after Morgan Stanley issued a bearish outlook on the electric vehicle manufacturer [11] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Traders are anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a roughly 89% probability according to the CME's FedWatch Tool [10] - The market is expected to remain directionless until after the Fed meeting, as there will be no earnings reports for another four weeks [10] - Oppenheimer has set a year-end 2026 target of 8,100 points for the S&P 500, citing strong earnings and macroeconomic resilience [11] - The focus will shift to tech sector valuations with upcoming earnings reports from Broadcom and Oracle, amid concerns over debt-funded AI spending [10][11]

美股三大指数回落，标普500、纳指终结四连涨，但英伟达反弹近2%；十年期美债收益率创两月新高； 伦铜再创历史新高。 中共中央政治局会议：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策 和增量政策集成效应，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节 力度，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。 中国11月外 贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%，大豆进 口环比降14.5%。 美最高院暗示支持特朗普解雇独立政府机构FTC委员，90年先例要被推翻，但一位保 守派法官称对削弱联储独立性存"顾虑"。 特朗普发帖暗示高院可能否决"对等关税"但有"B计划"，美国 公司"争先恐后"争夺"退税"。 特朗普称本周将针对人工智能发布单一规则行政命令，限制各州自行决 策。 特朗普质疑奈飞后派拉蒙抢购华纳兄弟，CEO放话多给股东176亿现金，派拉蒙股价大涨9%，华 纳涨潮4%。 谷歌将携手中国AR企业Xreal打造"Project Aura"眼镜。 乘特朗普All in机器人东风：软银和 英伟达据称商议参与Ski ...