Core Viewpoint - Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) has performed well since its spin-off from Lennar (LEN), with a gain of approximately 11% since the beginning of the year, although shares have recently declined over 10% from their peak [1] Company Performance - MRP shares have shown a solid performance post-spin-off, gaining about 11% [1] - Despite the overall gain, there has been a recent decline of over 10% from the highest share price [1] Analyst Insights - The analyst has over fifteen years of experience in making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories [1] - The focus is on achieving outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Zhujiang New Town's last undeveloped land, the racetrack site, is undergoing significant redevelopment, marking a transition from low-efficiency land use to a modern urban center [1][2] Group 1: Redevelopment Progress - The demolition of structures at the racetrack site has commenced, with significant amounts of construction waste being cleared, indicating tangible progress in the area’s redevelopment [1] - The racetrack, originally established in 1992, has transitioned from a horse racing venue to a low-efficiency commercial area, prompting the need for redevelopment in a prime urban location [1] Group 2: Urban Planning and Future Development - The detailed planning for the racetrack area was approved in early December, aiming to transform it into a "new cultural and sports hub for the public" and a leading international consumption center in the Bay Area [2] - The Guangzhou Yuexiu Group has been designated as the main entity for the redevelopment project, which involves reclaiming 362,000 square meters of state-owned land for new development [2] - The redevelopment plan includes a "super city green chain" and the introduction of various public facilities, luxury retail, and high-end hotels, creating an integrated urban consumption center [2]

全国住房城乡建设工作会议指出，城市政府要用足用好房地产调控自主权，适时调整优化房地产政策， 支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场平稳运行。 12月22日至23日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开，全面盘点2025年工作，系统总结"十四五"时 期住房城乡建设事业发展成就，研究部署"十五五"时期和2026年重点任务。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好住房城乡建设工作意义重大。2026年，要着力抓好推进现 代化人民城市建设、着力稳定房地产市场、加快建筑业提质升级、夯实高质量发展基础支撑4方面工 作。 记者重点从着力稳定房地产市场这项工作进行采访，看看2026年这项工作到底应该怎么干。 坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城一策，城市政府要用好房地产市场调控自主权 此次会议关于"着力稳定房地产市场"的内容深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神。 结合因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给的前提导向来看，国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院研究员刘琳 说，"目前三四线城市房地产库存压力更大，这些城市需要在控增量、去库存方面实施更大力度的政策 措施，库存高的城市应该停止新增房地产用地，重点结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用地 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 FY2025, total net revenue was $42.8 million, a decrease from $43.9 million in Q4 FY2024 [15] - Agribusiness revenue was $41.3 million compared to $42.5 million in the same quarter last year [15] - Operating loss for Q4 FY2025 was $11.1 million, compared to an operating loss of $2.8 million in Q4 FY2024 [18] - Net loss applicable to common stock for Q4 FY2025 was $8.8 million, compared to a net loss of $2 million in Q4 FY2024 [18] - For FY2025, total net revenue was $159.7 million, down from $191.5 million in FY2024 [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 was a loss of $6.5 million compared to income of $26.7 million in FY2024 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fresh packed lemon sales in Q4 FY2025 were $19.2 million, up from $8.4 million in Q4 FY2024, with 821,000 cartons sold at an average price of $23.33 per carton [15] - Avocado revenue in Q4 FY2025 was $300,000, down from $8.9 million in Q4 FY2024, with 396,000 pounds sold at an average price of $0.79 per pound [16] - Orange revenue in Q4 FY2025 was $2.9 million, compared to $1.7 million in Q4 FY2024 [17] - Specialty citrus and other revenues were $2.9 million in Q4 FY2025, down from $3.5 million in Q4 FY2024 [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The California avocado crop typically experiences alternate years of high and low production, impacting revenue [16] - The company expects fresh lemon volumes of 4-4.5 million cartons and avocado volumes of 5-6 million pounds for FY2026 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transforming its business model by reducing exposure to volatile lemon pricing and expanding into avocados and organic recycling [5][10] - A partnership with Sunkist is expected to generate $10 million in cost savings for FY2026 [6][24] - The company is also focusing on real estate development projects, expecting $155 million in distributions over the next five fiscal years [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted a significant transformation in the business model, moving from a commodity lemon producer to a diversified agricultural and real estate company [11] - The company anticipates improved financial performance in FY2026 due to cost savings and enhanced customer access through the Sunkist partnership [11][24] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of its Chilean assets for $15 million and is advancing the monetization of other non-strategic assets [9] - Long-term debt as of October 31, 2025, was $72.5 million, up from $40 million at the end of FY2024 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the $10 million cost savings from the Sunkist partnership? - Management explained that the savings come from reduced sales and marketing costs and improved operational efficiencies, including renegotiated storage contracts [29][30] Question: How does the company plan to monetize its water rights? - Management discussed the complexities of water rights in water-scarce areas and the potential for monetization through conservation and fallowing programs [39][40] Question: What is the outlook for lemon pricing? - Management indicated that lemon prices are expected to stabilize, with a potential average price in the $20 range, depending on market conditions [76][77] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding debt management? - Management emphasized the goal of reducing debt while increasing EBITDA through core operations and asset monetization [80][81]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the XinYueWan project in Shenzhen has set a new record for housing prices, with an average price of approximately 24.4 million yuan per square meter and a peak price reaching 38 million yuan per square meter, marking a significant test of the luxury housing market's purchasing power in Shenzhen [1][2]. Pricing Impact - The project offers 156 units with a price range from 17.6 million to 38 million yuan per square meter, with total prices spanning from 53.27 million to 250 million yuan [2]. - The average price of XinYueWan significantly exceeds the prices of nearby second-hand luxury properties, creating a notable price premium [3]. - The project plans to offer discounts, potentially lowering the average price to around 22-23 million yuan per square meter, which may help reduce the purchasing threshold [3]. Historical Context - The land for XinYueWan has a complex history, dating back to the 1980s, with multiple delays and ownership changes before finally being revitalized by CITIC Group in 2022 [4][5]. - The project has a total value exceeding 70 billion yuan, with CITIC's investment covering various costs, including land and construction [6]. Market Challenges - The timing of XinYueWan's launch coincides with a peak supply period for luxury properties in Shenzhen, leading to intense competition [7]. - The project's pricing remains high compared to surrounding second-hand luxury homes, and even with discounts, it lacks significant competitive pricing advantages [7]. - The expected completion date of June 30, 2029, poses challenges for buyers seeking immediate occupancy, leading to concerns over long-term capital costs and market fluctuations [7]. Market Dynamics - Despite the challenges, there are positive signals in the market, with an increase in transactions for second-hand luxury properties, indicating a potential upward trend in demand [10]. - The ultimate market performance of XinYueWan will depend on the decisions made by high-net-worth individuals, as the luxury market in Shenzhen continues to evolve [10].

Leadership Transition - Guy Bradley will succeed Patrick Healy as the head of Cathay Pacific Airways and Swire Coca-Cola in May next year, expanding his leadership role within Swire Pacific [1][2] - Patrick Healy, who has served for over three decades, will retire on May 13, coinciding with the airline's annual general meeting [2][4] Company Background - Swire Pacific, controlled by the Swire family, has a significant history, with its businesses founded in Liverpool in 1816 and expanded into China in the 19th century [3] - The conglomerate's Asian operations are primarily based in Hong Kong, where it holds a 45% stake in Cathay Pacific, acquired in 1948 [4][5] Financial Performance - Cathay Pacific reported an interim net profit of HK$3.61 billion (US$464 million) this year, marking it as a standout performer within Swire Pacific's portfolio [6] - In contrast, Swire Properties reported a net loss of HK$1.20 billion in the first half due to significant non-cash fair value losses on investment properties, although it remains optimistic about opportunities in mainland China [7]

中指研究院5月1日发布的数据显示，4月份，中国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为每平 方米16764元(人民币，下同)，环比上涨0.14%；同比上涨2.50%。100个城市二手住宅平 均价格为每平方米13892元，环比下跌0.69%；同比下跌7.23%。 中新社北京5月1日电 (记者 庞无忌)4月份，中国主要城市房地产市场延续回稳势头。 从市场表现来看，4月，尽管房企推盘节奏有所放缓，但在部分城市优质改善项目入市 带动下，百城新建住宅价格环比保持结构性上涨。二手住宅方面，4月核心城市二手房 市场维持一定活跃度，但环比有所回落，在挂牌量较高背景下，"以价换量"仍是市场主 流。 从各主要城市来看，受优质改善项目入市带动，4月，杭州新房价格环比上涨0.95%； 上海、合肥紧随其后，涨幅分别为0.61%、0.59%；徐州、金华等7个城市新建住宅价格 环比涨幅在0.2%-0.4%。 中指研究院认为，4月末中共中央政治局会议定调后，楼市各项支持性政策有望加快落 实。需求端，城中村和危旧房改造有望加快，配合货币化安置政策，将对促进需求释 放起到积极作用；更多城市或通过降低购房门槛、加大购房补贴力度等方式激发住房 消费潜力。供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - State-backed China Vanke is expected to follow the trend of other financially troubled Chinese developers by seeking multiple short-term extensions for its bond repayments before proposing a debt restructuring [1] Group 1: Bond Repayment Strategies - Vanke surprised the market by seeking a public bond extension for its 2 billion yuan ($284 million) note due December 15 by one year, despite receiving a 22 billion yuan loan from major shareholder Shenzhen Metro this year [2] - The initial effort to extend the bond repayment failed, but Vanke narrowly avoided default by getting bondholders to approve a plan to extend the grace period from five to 30 trading days [3] - The grace period extension plan achieved a 90.7% approval rate, while a sweeter proposal to delay principal payments was rejected with 78.3% opposing it [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The high rejection rate indicates bondholders were dissatisfied with the lack of upfront cash payments and principal amortization, reflecting concerns based on previous cases of developers extending repayments [5] - Analysts expect similar voting results for Vanke's 3.7 billion yuan onshore note due December 28, where the developer is also seeking to delay payments and extend the grace period [6] - A Shanghai-based investor anticipates that Vanke will default eventually, suggesting that credit enhancements will not be effective, similar to other developers like Sunac [7] Group 3: Industry Context - Since 2021, China's highly indebted developers have faced a liquidity crisis, leading to restructuring efforts for offshore bonds starting in 2022, while onshore bonds have seen repeated maturity extensions without a recovery in cash flow [9]

23 December 2025 | 7:14AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 51 Wrap - Steady transaction volumes toward year-end; MTD secondary price cut pace decelerating Key highlights for the week: On the policy front, on the central level, we note authorities reiterated their focus on guiding the property sector toward a new development model, with the MOHURD emphasizing shifts from high-speed to high-quality growth, prioritizing product quality over scale expansion, and targeting a balanced, stable m ...

Core Viewpoint - Five Star Development has received a Final Villa Sales Order from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, confirming clean, insurable title and full buyer protections for Villa sales at The Ritz-Carlton, Paradise Valley, ensuring that transactions can proceed without risk of future challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Court Order and Buyer Protections - The Court's Order establishes a clear framework for Villa closings, providing certainty to buyers, lenders, and title insurers that transactions can close as scheduled [2]. - The Order offers the strongest protection available under federal law, ensuring that Villa closings proceed with confidence and finality [4][10]. - All liens attach solely to net sale proceeds, and completed transactions cannot be unwound even in the event of an appeal, ensuring buyer security [10]. Group 2: Company Operations and Sales Strategy - Five Star Development continues to operate normally during its chapter 11 proceedings, maintaining control of the Project and advancing Villa sales [4]. - Following an initial sell-out, Five Star has released a limited number of select Villas to pre-qualified buyers under the Court-approved sales framework [5]. - The company is focused on creating a high-quality destination, engaging with global luxury retail brands, and providing Ritz-Carlton-managed services and amenities to homeowners [6][7]. Group 3: Company Background - Five Star Development has a nearly five-decade track record in commercial real estate, having developed over 20 million square feet of various properties, representing more than $3.5 billion in investment [8]. - The company's current portfolio includes over 7 million square feet of income-producing properties under active management [8].