机构：开源证券 研究员：高超/卢崑 （2）港股一级市场高景气，看好港股资产端扩容。2025Q1-3 港股新股上市数量为69 家，同比+53%， 新股募资额1883 亿港元，是2024 年首三季的三倍多，Q3 末正在处理中的新股上市申请数量达297 宗， 是2024 年末的84 宗三倍以上。伴随中概股优质资产回流以及A 股赴港二次上市浪潮，香港市场优质资 产有望扩容，带动交易量持续扩张。2025Q1-3 上市费收入12.7 亿港元，同比+17%。（3）此外，交易 量高增间接带动存管、托管及代理人服务费以及市场数据费同比+25%/+8%。 投资收益率下降，2025E 股息率3.0%，看好估值提升（1）2025Q1-3 投资收益净额38.9 亿港元同比 +4%，公司项目投资/保证金投资投资收益率分别为4.7%/2.0%（2025H1 为5.7%/2.2%），收益率下降主 因公司外部投资组合收益有所下降，保证金投资收益率下降。（2）2025 年预期股息率（假设分红率 90%不变）3.0%（当前美债收益率4.10%），往后看美联储降息有望驱动外资回流港股市场，港交所受 益。当前公司PE-TTM31.2 倍，位于十年分位 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported better-than-expected performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit driven by increased market trading activity [1][5] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and other income of HKD 7.775 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.70% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was HKD 4.900 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.80% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.31% [1] - Total revenue and other income for the first three quarters reached HKD 21.851 billion, up 36.63% year-on-year, marking a record high [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, trading fees and system usage fees, along with settlement and custody fees, accounted for HKD 5.484 billion, representing 70.53% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 77.30% [1] - For the first three quarters, these fees totaled HKD 14.213 billion, making up 65.05% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 57.05% [1] Market Activity - The trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market reached historical highs, with average daily trading (ADT) for Q3 2025 increasing by 144.80% year-on-year to HKD 2,863.58 billion [1] - Southbound capital inflows from mainland China totaled HKD 1,084.172 billion from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 135.01% [1] IPO Activity - In the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX saw 68 new listings, raising HKD 187.745 billion, a year-on-year increase of 262.51% [2] - Q3 2025 alone had 25 new listings, with a fundraising amount of HKD 78.865 billion, up 86.79% year-on-year [2] Investment Income - Despite a decline in HIBOR rates due to the Federal Reserve's actions, investment income remained positive, with net investment income for the first three quarters reaching HKD 3.893 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.43% [3] - The annualized net investment return for margin and clearing funds was 1.98% and 1.85%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [3] Future Outlook - The company expects continued high performance in 2025, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, ongoing southbound capital inflows, and the relative valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks [4][6] - The projected target price for HKEX is HKD 543 per share, maintaining a "buy" rating based on historical valuation levels and market conditions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by record trading volumes in the cash market and leading global IPO fundraising [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 21.85 billion and HKD 13.42 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 36.6% and 44.8% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue and net profit of HKD 7.78 billion and HKD 4.90 billion, with year-on-year growth of 44.7% and 55.8%, and quarter-on-quarter increases of 8% and 10% [1]. - Q3 net profit reached a historical high, with various segments such as trading, listing, clearing, and data services showing substantial year-on-year growth [1]. Market Activity - The average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately HKD 256.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126.3%, with Q3 ADT reaching HKD 286.4 billion, up 142.3% year-on-year [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market saw 69 new listings in the first three quarters, raising HKD 188.3 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 238.7% [2]. - As of the end of October, HKEX's IPO fundraising exceeded USD 26 billion, ranking first globally [2]. Investment Income - Margin investment income increased by 16% due to a 47% year-on-year growth in the margin scale of the Hong Kong clearing company [2]. - The company redeemed its external portfolio in Q2 2025, which negatively impacted investment income, with external portfolio returns down 39% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the deepening of mutual market access and the appreciation of the Renminbi, leading to an upward revision of the net profit forecast for 2025 to HKD 18 billion, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has achieved record-high revenues and profits in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by increased trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market [4][5]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters reached HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, with the third quarter showing a growth of 44.7% year-on-year and 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 13.42 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year, with the third quarter seeing a 55.8% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - EBITDA margin stood at 79%, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown 1. Trading fees, system usage fees, and settlement fees totaled HKD 13.1 billion, accounting for 60.0% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 60.5% [5]. 2. Investment income netted HKD 3.89 billion, representing 17.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [6]. 3. Listing fees amounted to HKD 1.27 billion, making up 5.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7]. Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for equity securities reached HKD 238.7 billion, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 132.4% [8]. - The derivatives market saw an average daily trading volume of HKD 17.7 billion, up 67.0% year-on-year [8]. - Northbound and southbound trading average daily transaction amounts were RMB 206.4 billion and HKD 125.9 billion, respectively, both record highs [8].

Core Insights - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported a 56% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations by 7% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by robust core revenue growth, record average daily trading volume, and strong initial public offering (IPO) momentum [1] - Net interest income decreased by 13.6% to HKD 1 billion, impacted by a decline in Hong Kong interbank offered rates and reduced corporate investment portfolio returns [1] - The outlook for average daily trading volume in 2026 remains optimistic due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and strong southbound capital inflows [1] - The target price for HKEX has been raised to HKD 548, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The total market capitalization of the securities market reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37% [1] - The average daily trading amount in October 2025 was HKD 274.9 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 8% [1] - For the first ten months of 2025, the average daily trading amount was HKD 258.2 billion, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 102% [1] - The average daily trading amount for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was HKD 34.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 127% [1] - The total fundraising amount from initial public offerings (IPOs) was HKD 216 billion, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 209% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) as a rare investment target with both offensive and defensive strengths, maintaining an "overweight" rating. The report notes a significant increase in trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market since September 2024, with the company's financial performance reaching historical highs in the first three quarters of the year. The positive market sentiment is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by policy initiatives encouraging more mainland companies to list in Hong Kong and the return of Chinese concept stocks [1]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX achieved total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%, with growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The third quarter saw revenue growth of 44.7% year-on-year and 7.7% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was HKD 13.42 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year, with a 5.7 percentage point increase compared to the first half of the year. The third quarter's net profit growth was 55.8% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Trading fees, trading system usage fees, and settlement and clearing fees accounted for HKD 13.1 billion (60.0% of total revenue), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.5%. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 83.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.2%. The average daily trading volume increased by 126.3% year-on-year to HKD 256.4 billion, with the third quarter showing a year-on-year increase of 141.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.5% [2][3]. Investment Income - The net investment income for the first three quarters was HKD 3.89 billion (17.8% of total revenue), a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with growth slowing by 9.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The net investment income from the company's own funds was HKD 1.3 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year, with an annualized net return of 4.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The income from margin and clearing house fund investments was HKD 2.6 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year, with an annualized net return of 1.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [3]. Market Activity - The average daily trading volume for stock securities on the exchange reached HKD 238.7 billion in the first three quarters, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 132.4%. The third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 149.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.6%. The average daily trading volume in the derivatives market was HKD 17.7 billion, up 67.0% year-on-year, with the third quarter showing a year-on-year increase of 59.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [4]. New Listings - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw a strong increase in new listings, with 69 new companies listed, a year-on-year increase of 53.3%. The total funds raised amounted to HKD 188.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 238.7%. Notably, Zijin Mining's listing in the third quarter raised HKD 28.7 billion, making it the second-largest new listing globally this year. As of the end of the third quarter, there were 297 listing applications pending, representing a 253.6% increase compared to the end of the previous year [5].

Core Insights - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) reported a 56% year-on-year increase in net profit for the third quarter, exceeding expectations by 7% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by robust core revenue growth, record average daily trading volume, and strong initial public offering (IPO) momentum [1] - Net interest income decreased by 13.6% year-on-year to HKD 1 billion, impacted by a decline in Hong Kong interbank offered rates and reduced corporate investment portfolio returns [1] - The outlook for average daily trading volume remains optimistic due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and strong southbound capital inflows [1] - The target price for HKEX has been raised to HKD 548, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 45% in Q3, reaching HKD 7.775 billion, driven by active trading and robust performance in market-related businesses [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue increased by 45% year-on-year to HKD 7.775 billion [1] - Excluding investment income, core fee income rose by 62% year-on-year to HKD 6.71 billion [1] - Profit increased by 56% year-on-year to HKD 4.9 billion, exceeding market expectations [1] Market Activity - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to heightened trading activity and rapid growth in various market-related businesses [1] - Investment income also showed relatively stable performance [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2025 to 2026 unchanged [1] - The rating remains "outperform" with a target price of HKD 500, corresponding to 37x and 36x price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating an 18% upside potential [1]

因美联储降息周期及强劲南向资金流入将提供支撑，该行对2026年日均成交额前景维持乐观，维持对 其"买入"评级，目标价上调至548港元。 大华继显发表报告指，港交所第三季纯利按年增长56%，较该行预期高出7%，主要受惠于核心收入稳 健增长，受惠于创纪录的平均每日成交量及强劲的首次公开招股势头。至于净利息收入按年下跌13.6% 至10亿港元，受港元同业拆息回落及企业投资组合收益减少拖累。 ...