Summary of Xiaomi's Q225 Preview and Key Insights Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi - **Industry**: Smartphone and Internet-of-Things (IoT) home-lifestyle company - **Mission**: To build high-quality products at reasonable prices, capping hardware net margin at 5% per year [14][15] Key Financial Metrics - **Q225 Smartphone Sell-Through**: 41 million units, up 0.5% YoY and 1.5% QoQ [2] - **Q225 Estimated Sell-In**: 42.4 million units, in line with sell-through due to lean channel inventory [2] - **Full Year Unit Growth Forecast**: 175 million units, slightly revised down from 176 million [2] - **Q225 Smartphone Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to be flat QoQ at 11.6% [2] Regional Performance - **China**: Sell-through grew 8% YoY, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [2] - **Europe and Rest of World (RoW)**: Recorded declines of -1% and -4% YoY, respectively, due to competition from Samsung and market share gains in emerging markets [2] AIoT Business Insights - **Q225 AIoT Sales Forecast**: RMB 36.6 billion, up 37% YoY; 2025E forecast at RMB 140.6 billion, up 35% YoY [3] - **Margin Expectations**: Seasonal decline expected due to 618 promotions, with a forecasted 3.7 percentage points QoQ decline from Q125's peak [3] - **Challenges**: Receding subsidy impacts and intensified domestic competition may suppress margin upside [3] Electric Vehicle (EV) Segment - **Q225 EV Deliveries**: 82,000 units, up 8% QoQ [4] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Expected to rise to RMB 240,000, with a margin increase of 0.7% [4] - **Future Capacity**: Second EV plant ramp-up is critical for 2H25/2026 shipment forecasts, with expectations of 398,000 and 720,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - **Revised Price Target**: Lowered from HK$62.0 to HK$60.0, maintaining a Neutral rating [5] - **Earnings Forecast Adjustments**: Q225 and 2025 earnings forecasts reduced by 10.4% and 5.5%, respectively [5] - **Valuation Methodology**: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with smartphone, AIoT, and internet segments valued at 22.5x 2026E PE [5] Profitability and Financial Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025E at RMB 483.4 billion, growing to RMB 929.7 billion by 2029E [6] - **Net Earnings**: Projected net earnings for 2025E at RMB 42.0 billion, increasing to RMB 92.2 billion by 2029E [6] - **Debt Management**: Net cash position expected to improve significantly by 2029E [6] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include raw material price hikes, competition in the premium smartphone market, and potential declines in IoT demand as subsidies fade [15] - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected adoption of edge-AI smartphones, earlier monetization of IoT products, and higher EV shipments could drive growth [16] Market Position - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately HK$1,348 billion (US$172 billion) [7] - **Free Float**: 59% of shares [7] - **Average Daily Volume**: 151,813 shares [7] Conclusion Xiaomi is navigating a complex landscape with mixed performance across its segments. While the smartphone and AIoT businesses show growth potential, challenges from competition and market dynamics necessitate careful monitoring of margins and capacity expansions, particularly in the EV sector. The revised price target reflects a cautious outlook amid these developments.

Strategic Acquisition - SoftBank is acquiring Foxconn's EV plant in Ohio [1] Project Initiative - The acquisition aims to kick-start SoftBank's $500 billion Stargate data center project [1] Key Partnerships - The Stargate project involves partnerships with OpenAI and Oracle [1]

Business Strategy - Hon Hai agreed to sell an EV plant in Ohio for $375 million [1] - The company aims to shift toward assembling AI servers at the US facility [1]

Strategic Alliance - Adani Group is exploring a potential partnership with Chinese EV giant BYD [1] - The collaboration aims to manufacture batteries in India [1] - This move would further Adani Group's expansion into the clean energy sector [1]

Tesla has signed a $4.3 billion agreement to source lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, batteries from LG Energy, a person familiar with the matter said, in the second tie-up for the EV maker in South Korea this month https://t.co/0SpRTyAzti ...

Market Competition - Tesla faces increasing competition from BYD, potentially losing the lead in annual global EV sales [1] - BYD excels in cost-effective manufacturing and emerging autonomous offerings, narrowing the technology gap with Tesla [1] - The rise of BYD symbolizes the advancement of Chinese auto manufacturing [2] Technological Advantages - Tesla believes it maintains advantages in automation technology, AI, infrastructure, and access to Nvidia chips [2] - The industry shift towards autonomous vehicles and AI is a central aspect of US-China technological competition [3] Industry Trends - The EV industry is transitioning towards autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence [3]

Xiaomi has pulled off a feat that eluded Apple, which ditched plans to make its own EV after burning billions of dollars on the effort. The Chinese firm now has its sights set on world domination https://t.co/fivdiWLnDh ...

Today on “The Intelligence”: China’s smartphone giant Xiaomi takes the EV way, a rapprochement of necessity for Britain and Argentina, and women’s sports on a tear https://t.co/nttGXdDyE8 ...

Bitcoin Treasury Strategy - Volcon 公司启动比特币国库战略，持有 280 BTC [1] - Volcon 公司筹集 5 亿（$500 million）美元，用于购买更多 BTC 作为国库配置 [1] Financial Implications - 此举可能预示着 Volcon 公司对加密货币市场前景看好 [1] - 5 亿（$500 million）美元的融资规模显示了公司对比特币投资的决心 [1]

Battery makers in slumping EV business are finding a lifeline elsewhere https://t.co/m1WljnZoDd ...