G10 FX Strategy: Two Banks and Two Dollars | 27-Jun-2025 We expect USD/CAD to decline this year as Fed and Bank of Canada policy expectations diverge. However, CAD is likely to underperform other G10 currencies due to energy market and immigration dynamics. US Rates Strategy: Add Vol Surface Flatteners | 27-Jun-2025 We suggest buying 1m10y vs. 6m10y vol given cheap valuations. We maintain our 0QU5 call fly to play for a further repricing of the Fed's trough rate. Euro Area Rates Strategy: Dutch Pension Refo ...

June 30, 2025 04:03 AM GMT We thus expect real GDP to come down from 5%Y in 2Q to 4.5%Y in 3Q, given 1) fading exports front-loading to the US and cumulative tariff impact, and 2) muted stimulus in the late July politburo meeting given 2Q growth strength. We believe Beijing may introduce a modest Rmb0.5-1trn supplementary fiscal stimulus in late 3Q/early 4Q when it sees 2-3 months of weaker hard data. | M China Economics Asia Pacific Momentum | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Harry Zhao Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@ ...

June 30, 2025 01:16 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation China Economics: Solid 2Q, Softening Momentum, Fall Stimulus Likely Related Reports: Solid 2Q, Softening Momentum, Fall Stimulus Likely (26 June 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Fall Stimulus S ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 29, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea Are Foreign Investors Fleeing US Assets? Investment flows, both from and into US assets, were a key theme in our client conversations in multiple meetings across the pond last week. While many questions concerned the tax provisions under Section 899 proposed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which have since been removed, the subtext was clear – are investors, particularly foreign investors, ...

M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Martin W Tobias, CFA Strategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Francesco Grechi Strategist Francesco.Grechi@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1009 Aryaman Singh Strategist Aryaman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1993 Eli P Carter Strategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 June 27, 2025 09:16 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Watch the Economic Data, Not the US Equity Ma ...

Key focus and themes Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange Asia exJapan/Euro Area/Europe Softer USD drivers back in focus Considering June NFP (3 July), Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (4 July) and the tariff deadline (9 July), where do you expect EUR/USD to trade in two weeks (current spot: 1.17)? | | ★★★★★ | | Top 5 FX and Rates Trades | | ★★★★★ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Countries | Trade | bp move | bp move from | Target | Timeline | Conviction (0-5) | | | | from start | current | ...

GS China Economic Outlook Patience and Resilience (耐心与韧性） June 2025 Hui Shan Lisheng Wang Xinquan Chen Yuting Yang Chelsea Song Chief China Economist China Economist China Economist China Economist China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-2978-6634 +852-3966-4004 +852-2978-2418 +852-2978-7283 +852-2978-0106 Hui.Shan@gs.com Lisheng.Wang@gs.com Xinquan.Chen@gs.com Yuting.y.Yang@gs.com Chelse ...

Mediolanum is selling its 3.5% stake in Mediobanca, divesting from the investment bank that’s currently subject of a takeover attempt by Monte Paschi https://t.co/2aQUmMRKmF ...

Press release Regulated information Brussels, June 30, 2025, 18:00 CEST In line with Belgian transparency legislation (Law of May 2, 2007), The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc recently sent to Solvay the following transparency notification indicating that they crossed the threshold of 5%. Here is a summary of the notification: Date on which the threshold was crossed Voting rights after the transaction Equivalent financial instruments after the transaction Total June 19, 2025 0.03% 5.51% 5.54% The notif ...

Morgan Stanley has appointed Drew Guevara as a global co-head of technology investment banking as part of a broader reshuffle of one of the Wall Street bank’s most storied franchises https://t.co/02Xx8CUtvP ...