Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect has recorded over HKD 1 trillion in net inflows year-to-date, indicating a potential for a new annual record by 2025 [1][3] - The inclusion of ETFs in the Stock Connect has provided mainland investors with more access to Hong Kong stocks, leading to a surge in ETF trading volumes [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the launch of the Stock Connect in November 2014, mainland investors have become a significant force in the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect for the first eight months of this year was HKD 60.8 billion, accounting for 24.5% of the overall market, a significant increase from less than 3% in 2015 [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows - Over the past decade, net inflows through the Stock Connect have increased from HKD 13.1 billion in 2014 to HKD 807.9 billion in 2024, representing a more than sixfold increase [3] - As of September 12 this year, net inflows reached HKD 10,729 billion, a 33% increase compared to the total for the previous year, with expectations for a new annual high [3] Group 3: Monthly and Daily Inflows - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced 26 consecutive months of net inflows, with August alone recording a net inflow of HKD 112.2 billion, ranking as the ninth highest on record [3] - This year, six months have made it into the top ten for monthly net inflows, and seven trading days have reached the top ten for daily net inflows, with August 15 seeing a record high of HKD 35.9 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects Hong Kong Stock Exchange's investment income for Q3 to be approximately half of the H1 level, influenced by a decline in HIBOR, a reduction in external investment portfolios, and revisions to margin funding interest-sharing agreements [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The estimated southbound trading accounts for a year-on-year growth of 30% to 40% in the average daily turnover (ADT) [1] - Southbound trading and overall ADT will determine short-term stock price movements [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts the ADT for October to December to be around HKD 260 billion, aligning closely with consensus earnings per share [1] - The firm believes that southbound trading is a unique factor contributing significantly to overall ADT during this upward cycle [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is uncertainty in the market regarding the future flow of funds in southbound trading, despite its advantages such as diversification, unique stocks, and valuation discounts [1] - Goldman Sachs remains confident that the flow and participation in southbound trading will structurally increase [1] Group 4: Price Target Adjustment - The 12-month price target has been raised by 4% from HKD 524 to HKD 544, predicting a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for the fiscal year 2026, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) stock price is significantly undervalued due to the structural boost from southbound capital, despite underperforming major indices in the past month [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Impact - Southbound capital is driving unprecedented growth in the average daily trading volume of cash stocks, which is a key profit driver for HKEX [2][3]. - The average daily trading volume has reached 318 billion HKD in September, surpassing 279 billion HKD in August and 254 billion HKD year-to-date [3]. - Southbound capital contributes approximately 30% to 40% of the year-on-year growth in total trading volume, accounting for about 25% of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for HKEX for the years 2025-2027 by 3% to 4% [4][5]. - The updated EPS forecasts are as follows: 2025 from 12.63 HKD to 12.97 HKD, 2026 from 13.05 HKD to 13.61 HKD, and 2027 from 13.96 HKD to 14.45 HKD [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Price Target - The target price for HKEX has been increased from 524 HKD to 544 HKD, reflecting a 4% upward adjustment based on the revised earnings forecasts [2][4]. - Historical valuation comparisons indicate that the current stock price is slightly below the median level of historical cycles, while the earnings growth outlook remains strong [6][7]. - A 20-year regression model suggests that the theoretical stock price should be around 590 HKD based on current trading activity levels, indicating significant potential for price correction [7].

Core Viewpoint - Singapore Exchange Group (SGX) plays a crucial role as a bridge connecting Asia and the global capital markets, particularly in facilitating the internationalization of Chinese enterprises and products [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Focus and Initiatives - SGX aims to deepen cooperation between Singapore and China’s capital markets, supporting the two-way capital flow of Chinese concept-related products [4]. - The exchange has expanded its secondary listing framework to include companies listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, enhancing transparency and investor access [5]. - SGX has streamlined the IPO process, reducing the time from application to listing to approximately 6 to 8 weeks, providing greater certainty for applicants [5]. Group 2: Market Development and Investor Engagement - Approximately 20% of SGX-listed companies are from Greater China, spanning various industries, indicating strong interest from Chinese multinational corporations [6]. - The Monetary Authority of Singapore has launched a S$50 billion "Securities Market Development Plan" to enhance the competitiveness of the Singapore securities market [6]. Group 3: ETF and Index Collaboration - As of July 2023, 10 cross-border ETF products have been launched under the Singapore-China ETF mutual access mechanism, marking significant progress in collaboration [7]. - A new index, the CSI-SGX Asia Emerging Markets Technology Index, was launched in January 2024, focusing on key sectors like internet and semiconductor technology [7][8]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Future Goals - SGX reported its highest revenue and net profit since its listing in the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit of S$609.5 million, a 15.9% increase year-on-year [9]. - The exchange aims to become a leading international exchange, facilitating connections between global investors and Asian markets while embracing new technologies like AI to enhance operational efficiency [9][10].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35% to 26,544.85 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.99% to 6,271.22 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.46% to 9,456.52 points [2][3] - The total market turnover reached 413.31 billion HKD, marking the highest level since April 8 of this year [2] Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock had a turnover of 33.704 billion HKD, closing down by 1.98% [4][6] - Tencent Holdings recorded a turnover of 19.433 billion HKD, down by 2.95%, with a recent buyback of 839,000 shares [4] - Semiconductor stocks, particularly Huahong Semiconductor, saw gains, with Huahong rising over 8% to reach a new high [3] Notable Stock Movements - Pop Mart experienced a significant increase, closing up by 4.62% at 267.2 HKD per share, with a turnover of 6.074 billion HKD [8] - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) rose by 2.66%, with a turnover of 17.235 billion HKD [4][11] Industry Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicated a cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart, but they maintain a positive outlook, suggesting that increased supply could enhance customer experience and demand [10] - The global top ten foundry companies are projected to have a combined revenue of 41.718 billion HKD in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.6% [11][13] - SMIC's gross margin improved by 8 percentage points year-on-year, with revenue growth of 23.14% expected in the first half of 2025 [13]

Group 1: Policy Focus - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, John Lee, emphasized that "benefiting people's livelihood" is a key focus of the new policy report, aiming to enhance long-term economic competitiveness and improve citizens' happiness and sense of gain [2][11] - The report outlines nine key areas related to citizens' daily lives, with housing being the top priority, including accelerated construction of public housing and innovative "simple public housing" initiatives [2][3] Group 2: Northern Metropolis Development - The Northern Metropolis is highlighted as strategically important, occupying one-third of Hong Kong's land, with plans to accelerate its development and attract industries and major projects [4][6] - A new "Northern Metropolis Development Committee" will be established to streamline administrative processes and introduce competitive practices for land management [5][6] Group 3: Housing and Land Policies - The government plans to allow the transfer of unused plot ratios from redevelopment projects to other areas, aiming to optimize land use and facilitate urban renewal [3][6] - A pilot program will permit property owners to offset land compensation costs by returning land to the government, with specific compensation rates set for different land classifications [6][7] Group 4: Financial Market Initiatives - The report proposes exploring the reduction of the stock settlement cycle to T+1, with consultations planned for the first half of next year [9] - The government aims to optimize the "New Capital Investor Entry Scheme" by lowering the residential transaction threshold to HKD 30 million, enhancing the scheme's attractiveness to investors [10]

Group 1 - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, John Lee, presented the 2025 Policy Address on September 17, highlighting the launch of the international carbon trading platform CoreClimate by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022, which is the only platform globally that settles voluntary carbon credits in Hong Kong dollars and Renminbi [2] - Future plans include strengthening pilot cooperation with the Greater Bay Area carbon market to test cross-border trading settlement paths and to jointly build a carbon market ecosystem within the region [2] - Hong Kong will collaborate with relevant regulatory bodies and institutions in mainland China to study the country's participation in the international carbon market, including setting voluntary carbon credit standards and methods, as well as the registration, trading, and settlement of carbon reduction amounts [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) aims to attract more Southeast Asian issuers for secondary listings in Hong Kong [1] - HKEX will deepen cooperation with exchanges in Southeast Asia to facilitate this initiative [1] - The Hong Kong government encourages asset companies to issue products locally to enhance market access to Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government plans to actively seek the establishment of an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank office in Hong Kong [3] - The government will coordinate training for personnel from Belt and Road Initiative countries through its "Belt and Road" office [3] - A sustainable green development training center will be established in 2026 to provide training for Belt and Road personnel, supported by a funding of 100 million HKD from the Hong Kong Jockey Club [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong will collaborate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses in bulk commodity trading and carbon trading [1] Group 1: Collaboration and Market Development - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is the controlling shareholder of the Qianhai Joint Trading Center and will continue to strengthen cooperation between the two regions [1] - The development of an offshore soybean spot market is a key focus for HKEX [1] - HKEX's carbon market, Core Climate, will conduct research on cross-border trading settlement with pilot carbon markets in the Greater Bay Area [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech rising by 25.0% and 27.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 279.1 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 192.1% [1] - Northbound trading ADT was HKD 322.8 billion, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 45.2% and 204.9% respectively, while southbound trading ADT was HKD 155.2 billion, with increases of 7.4% and 448.3% [1] Group 2: Derivatives Market - In August, the average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 627,000 contracts, showing month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 9.6% and 5.3% respectively [1] - The ADV for options was 962,000 contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 2.1% and 34.5% [1] - As of the end of August, the ADT for structured products such as bull and bear certificates and derivative warrants was HKD 17.5 billion, reflecting increases of 11.9% and 58.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) - In August, there were 6 new IPOs in Hong Kong, with a total scale of HKD 5.4 billion, representing a month-on-month decrease of 73% but a year-on-year increase of 189% [2] - The number of newly listed derivative warrants and bull and bear certificates was 941 and 2,386 respectively, with year-on-year increases of 75% and 40% [2] Group 4: Investment Income and Economic Environment - As of the end of August, the HIBOR rates for 6 months, 1 month, overnight, and the US overnight bank funding rate were 3.27%, 3.30%, 4.00%, and 4.33% respectively, with month-on-month increases across the board [2] - The domestic economic environment showed signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.40%, indicating a slight improvement [3] - The overseas economic outlook suggests a strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 [3] Group 5: Valuation and Future Outlook - As of the end of August, the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio was 37.02x, positioned at the 52nd percentile historically since 2016, indicating potential value for investors [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 30.3 billion, HKD 33.2 billion, and HKD 35.6 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 19.4 billion, HKD 20.6 billion, and HKD 22.3 billion [4] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29.3x, 27.7x, and 25.4x respectively, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [4]