Performance Overview - Alluvial Fund achieved a return of 15.5% in Q3 2025, with a total return of 33.6% year-to-date, outperforming benchmark indexes [3][8] - This performance marks the third-best quarterly result in the fund's nine-year history [3] Portfolio Highlights - The largest position in the portfolio is Zegona Communications, which is undergoing significant asset sales that will enhance cash flow and reduce leverage [11][12] - FitLife Brands acquired Irwin Naturals out of bankruptcy for $42.5 million, funded by cash and bank debt, and is expected to perform well due to strong leadership [15][16] - PHI Group, a helicopter operator, is noted for its profitability and potential for a sale or public listing, trading at half the value of peers [29] Market Insights - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of the current market rally, particularly regarding speculative companies like Rigetti Computing, which has a market value of $18 billion despite minimal revenue [9][10] - The fund maintains a cautious approach, focusing on companies with durable cash flows and valuable assets [10] Sector and Geographic Allocation - The fund's geographic allocation is primarily in the United States (59.1%), followed by the United Kingdom (23.2%) and Eurozone (10.1%) [23] - Sector allocation includes Communications (21.0%), Consumer Staples (20.7%), and Real Estate (12.9%) [24] Notable Developments - NewPrinces Group plans to list a minority stake in UK food producer Princes, potentially realizing significant value from its investment [19] - Unidata SpA, an Italian broadband provider, has seen cash flow grow by 67% since 2022, yet its shares are down nearly 40%, indicating a potential undervaluation [25] Risk Management - The fund is trimming its position in Zegona for risk control, emphasizing the importance of managing exposure to unforeseen negative events [14] - The fund's allocation to Expert Markets securities is limited to 10% to manage liquidity risk [28]

Core Viewpoint - Speculative stocks are currently facing significant risks, and investors are advised to be cautious and consider selling to avoid potential losses. Speculation can be beneficial, especially for younger investors, but it must be approached wisely by focusing on companies with clear profit potential rather than those with a history of losses [1][2][3]. Group 1: Speculative Stocks Overview - AS Space Mobile has seen a 200% increase this year but is down over 30 points from its recent high, and it recently offered $1 billion in convertible notes while having a negative free cash flow of $677 million over the last year [5][6]. - Trilogy Metals has increased by approximately 345% this year but has no sales and has been losing money consistently for five years [7]. - Grail, a cancer detection company, has seen its stock rise 347% this year despite losing hundreds of millions over the last five years, and it recently conducted a $325 million private placement [8]. - Techcoen, a co-generation company, has increased nearly 475% but has never turned a profit, and its stock has dropped from 12 to 8 recently [9]. - Aurora Innovation, a self-driving technology company, trades under five and has lost hundreds of millions over the last five years, with a recommendation to consider Tesla instead [10]. - Regetti Computing, a quantum computing company, is up 136% this year but has declining revenues and significant insider selling, raising concerns about its future profitability [11]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Recommendations - The current market sentiment indicates that the speculative mania may be coming to an end, with many of the mentioned stocks viewed as overheated and likely to revisit lower levels [11][12]. - There are better alternatives to the speculative stocks discussed, and investors are encouraged to sell during any potential bounce to avoid further declines [12].

Market Dynamics - A significant rally in shares of Beyond Meat Inc. saw an increase of over 1,000%, followed by a rapid decline in gains [1] - Retail traders are becoming a dominant force in the market, often driving prices up by buying dips but also causing volatility when chasing trends [2] Retail Trading Trends - The average daily trading volume of US-listed stocks has reached nearly 12 billion shares since the introduction of free trading in 2019, which is about 75% higher than the previous six-year average [5] - In the past year, the daily trading volume has averaged approximately 16.7 billion shares, indicating increased engagement among amateur traders [5] Retail Participation Metrics - Trades executed by off-exchange venues, such as those operated by equity wholesalers like Robinhood, are expected to account for 50% of total trades this year, marking a significant milestone [6] - Retail traders have consistently favored buying call options over puts, with demand for calls exceeding puts for 24 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since tracking began in 2020 [7] Sector-Specific Observations - Quantum computing stocks have experienced extreme volatility, with some stocks rising over 1,000% in the past year but facing significant declines recently, with drops of 6% or more in a single day [3]

Core Insights - The quantum computing industry is transitioning from research to commercialization in 2025, with significant backing from U.S. agencies and leading companies generating measurable revenues [1][3][5] Government Support and Funding - The U.S. Department of Energy allocated approximately $1,153 million to its Advanced Scientific Computing Research program, emphasizing Quantum Information Science (QIS) as a core focus area for FY 2025 [3] - The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) reported a 2.6% increase in funding for QIS, highlighting its importance in AI research and technology readiness [4] - The Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C) noted accelerating global demand for quantum computing services, particularly in materials science, cybersecurity, and logistics optimization [4] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The U.S. Trade Representative imposed new tariffs on semiconductor and photonics components from China, temporarily increasing costs for U.S. hardware developers [5] - Despite these challenges, commercial progress in quantum companies remains strong [5] Company Highlights IBM - IBM launched its 1,121-qubit Condor quantum processor for enterprise clients and introduced the Quantum Utility initiative to apply quantum performance to real-world problems [8] - The company reported a revenue increase in its quantum services and cloud computing divisions, with a projected earnings growth of 7.7% and revenue growth of 6.4% in 2025 [9] IonQ - IonQ achieved significant performance milestones and technological advancements, including converting trapped-ion photon emissions into telecom-band photons [10] - The company is projected to report earnings growth of 37.8% and revenue growth of 115.1% in 2025, with a year-to-date stock increase of 42.4% [11] Rigetti - Rigetti is expected to see modest revenue growth, reporting $1.8 million in revenues and a $39.7 million net loss in the second quarter, while raising $350 million to strengthen its balance sheet [12] - The company is projected to report earnings growth of 75% and has experienced a year-to-date stock surge of 162.1% [13]

Federal Reserve Operations - Demand for the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) operation decreased, with 8 counterparties taking $4.005 billion, down from $4.699 billion and 10 bids previously, indicating less excess liquidity in the financial system [2][7]. Michelin - Michelin's CEO, Florent Menegaux, confirmed that there is "no reason to change dividend policy," with a €1.38 dividend per share for the 2024 fiscal year approved, reflecting a 2.2% increase from the previous year and a payout ratio of 52% of net income, showcasing the company's confidence in its strategic execution [3][7]. Automotive Industry - Former President Trump announced that General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra and Ford Motor Company (F) Executive Chairman Bill Ford thanked him for implementing 25% tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks, set to take effect on November 1, 2025, aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing [4][7]. Job Market - Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers surged by 121% week-over-week to 7,244 for the week ending October 11, 2025, the highest level since the 2019 government shutdown, attributed to the ongoing federal government shutdown [8][9]. Cattle Industry - President Trump called for cattle ranchers to lower prices amidst record-high beef prices, suggesting importing beef from Argentina to increase supply and lower consumer costs, a proposal that faced strong opposition from U.S. cattle producers [9].

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a significant advancement in processing power, with several companies, including D-Wave Quantum, poised to capitalize on this technology [1][2] Company Overview - D-Wave Quantum, based in Palo Alto, California, is recognized as the world's first commercial supplier of quantum computers, focusing on both annealing and gate-model quantum computers [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $11 billion [4] Recent Developments - D-Wave Quantum announced a plan to streamline its capital structure by redeeming 5 million warrants, which could lead to the issuance of 7.2 million shares if all warrants are exercised by the November 17 deadline, resulting in a 2.1% dilution for existing shareholders [3] - Following this announcement, D-Wave Quantum's stock experienced a 6% drop, despite a significant increase in value over the past year [4] Performance Metrics - Over the last year, D-Wave Quantum's stock has surged by 2,220%, significantly outperforming the Russell 2000's return of 12.6% during the same period [6] - The stock's performance, while impressive, has led to a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 448, which is substantially higher than its three-year mean of 24.6, indicating speculative optimism in the market [7] Product Innovations - In May, D-Wave Quantum launched its sixth-generation quantum computer, the Advantage2, which features 20-way qubit connectivity and a 40% increase in energy scale, aimed at real-world applications [5]

Core Insights - Google is experiencing positive momentum in its cloud computing business, with potential new contracts and significant revenue growth expected in the upcoming earnings report [2][3][4] Group 1: Cloud Computing Developments - Google is in negotiations with Anthropic, a competitor of OpenAI, for a cloud computing contract, which could enhance its cloud business [2] - Analysts project a 29% growth in Google Cloud revenue for Q3, estimating it will reach $14.65 billion [3] - New customers for Google Cloud include OpenAI and Meta Platforms, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] Group 2: Stock Performance - Google stock rose slightly to $251.20, reflecting a 33% increase in 2025 after a period of underperformance [4] - Despite recent fluctuations, Google stock is trading below its all-time high of $256, reached on September 19 [5] Group 3: Quantum Computing Advances - Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced further advancements in quantum computing, building on previous developments in error correction with the "Willow" quantum chip [6] - Quantum computing utilizes qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing for faster and more complex calculations compared to traditional computers [7][8] Group 4: Stock Ratings - Alphabet's Relative Strength Rating is currently at 90 out of a possible 99, indicating strong performance relative to other growth stocks [9] - The stock holds an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B+, suggesting moderate institutional buying activity [9] - Google stock has a Composite Rating of 98, reflecting its strong fundamental and technical metrics [10]

Core Viewpoint - IBM's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, particularly regarding its software segment growth, which is expected to increase by approximately 10.5% in the third quarter, following previous revenue misses in the first and second quarters [2][3]. Software Segment - The software segment's performance is critical, as previous quarters saw revenue misses leading to stock sell-offs. The market is closely watching for any signs of disappointment in this area [2][3]. - Cumulative AI bookings for IBM in the second quarter were reported at about $7.5 billion, indicating a focus on AI integration within their software offerings [3]. AI Strategy - IBM has formed a partnership with Enthropic to enhance its AI capabilities through the Claude chatbot, which competes with OpenAI's ChatGPT. This partnership will be integrated into various IBM products [4]. - Unlike other major players in the AI space, IBM's approach is less capital expenditure-intensive, focusing on unique applications rather than large-scale data center expansions [5][7]. Cloud Business - IBM's cloud strategy is characterized as a hybrid model, combining infrastructure as a service with data privacy, differing from competitors like Amazon and Microsoft, which primarily utilize large data centers [5][6]. - This hybrid cloud approach allows clients to maintain some data in-house while utilizing external resources, positioning IBM uniquely in the cloud market [7]. Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is viewed as a significant growth area for IBM, with expectations to launch a quantum computer by 2029-2030. This positions IBM as a key player in the emerging quantum technology sector [10][11]. - IBM's core competency in building large machines, such as mainframes, provides a competitive edge over other companies that focus on different technological areas [10]. Stock Performance - IBM's stock has been on an upward trend, approaching 52-week highs, with a year-to-date rally of about 30%. The stock is currently about 5-6% off its all-time highs, indicating strong market interest ahead of the earnings report [2][13].

Core Viewpoint - D-Wave Quantum Inc (NYSE: QBTS) is experiencing a pullback in its stock price, which may present a buying opportunity as it gains popularity among billionaires in the quantum computing sector [1] Company Summary - D-Wave Quantum Inc is positioned as a significant player in the quantum computing industry, attracting interest from high-net-worth individuals [1] - The company's stock opened lower in the morning trading session, indicating a potential moment for investors to consider purchasing shares [1] Industry Summary - The quantum computing sector is emerging as a favored investment area among wealthy investors, suggesting a growing confidence in the technology's future [1]

Core Insights - A significant portion of traders (74%) believe quantum computing stocks are in a bubble, prompting attention to this market trend [1] - Senior Market Strategist John Rowland identifies quantum computing stocks as experiencing a speculative bubble, with other sectors showing similar signs [1][4] Quantum Computing Sector - Quantum computing stocks have seen explosive growth in 2024-2025, with companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing leading the surge, reporting gains of 1,000% to over 3,000% in a year [2] - Despite the impressive stock performance, these companies are facing substantial cash burn, with IonQ generating $50 million in revenue but incurring a loss of $170 million, Rigetti with $11 million in revenue and a loss of over $200 million, and D-Wave Quantum earning $22 million while losing $167 million [3][6] - The volatility in quantum stocks is highlighted by IonQ's 16% spike followed by a 27% drop in subsequent sessions, indicating a pattern of rapid price fluctuations [3] Broader Market Trends - The speculative behavior observed in quantum computing is not isolated; it is also present in other sectors such as rare earth metals, drone stocks, and battery technology, with similar patterns of sharp price increases followed by quick reversals [4][5] - Lithium Americas, for example, experienced gains of 12% and 19% before losing most of those gains within three trading sessions, exemplifying the volatility across these sectors [4] - This phenomenon of "micro-bubbles" has been seen previously in markets like electric vehicles in 2021 and artificial intelligence in 2023, suggesting a recurring cycle of rapid inflation in speculative pockets when liquidity is high and narratives are strong [7]